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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Sept 12, 2014 12:32:18 GMT
Even with our dreadful away record, Lincoln being at home and higher than us in the league, we are favourites to win tomorrow's match!!!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2014 12:38:05 GMT
Even with our dreadful away record, Lincoln being at home and higher than us in the league, we are favourites to win tomorrow's match!!! I should throw a bundle on a home win really,because everything i ever bet goes the complete opposite.  |
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Sept 12, 2014 13:00:04 GMT
Even with our dreadful away record, Lincoln being at home and higher than us in the league, we are favourites to win tomorrow's match!!! I should throw a bundle on a home win really,because everything i ever bet goes the complete opposite. Certainly wouldn't put you off! Think it may be a draw. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2014 13:00:18 GMT
Even with our dreadful away record, Lincoln being at home and higher than us in the league, we are favourites to win tomorrow's match!!! Only very marginally. |
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Sept 12, 2014 13:06:43 GMT
Even with our dreadful away record, Lincoln being at home and higher than us in the league, we are favourites to win tomorrow's match!!! Only very marginally. I wouldn't say so. There's a fair difference between the two prices especially compared to what I personally think they should be. |
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Post by Topper Gas on Sept 12, 2014 13:07:58 GMT
It probably means more Rovers fans have bet on the game than Lincoln's hence the odds?
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Sept 12, 2014 13:10:21 GMT
It probably means more Rovers fans have bet on the game than Lincoln's hence the odds? We're just too short every game because of the size of the club. We're always a false price and no doubt you would make a nice amount if you bet against us every match over the course of the season. I didn't think we would be favourites away to a reasonable sized club like Lincoln though. |
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Post by gashead22 on Sept 12, 2014 13:51:32 GMT
It probably means more Rovers fans have bet on the game than Lincoln's hence the odds? The % of rovers fans betting on the match would be tiny and have barely any influence on the odds. And besids, any rovers fan would know to bet against us anyway! We always start at crap odds because we're a big team at this level but to be fair 1 defeat in 5 for us and 1 win in 4 for them I think its not that unsurprising we're marginal favourites - and when I say marginal, I mean marginal as the odds are almost identical for a Lincoln win as well. |
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Post by Centenary Gas on Sept 12, 2014 14:24:51 GMT
It probably means more Rovers fans have bet on the game than Lincoln's hence the odds? The % of rovers fans betting on the match would be tiny and have barely any influence on the odds. And besids, any rovers fan would know to bet against us anyway! We always start at crap odds because we're a big team at this level but to be fair 1 defeat in 5 for us and 1 win in 4 for them I think its not that unsurprising we're marginal favourites - and when I say marginal, I mean marginal as the odds are almost identical for a Lincoln win as well. Won't stop people putting us in their accumulators, it's just a way for the bookies to slice off some extra value. Unfortunately, Lincoln are very much looking like a value bet tomorrow, and the only thing stopping me is that we are due an away win. |
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Post by RD on Sept 12, 2014 14:29:29 GMT
Lincoln is value without doubt. No value whatsoever in the Rovers win. A draw looks most likely to me though. I rate it:
39% Lincoln
42% Draw
19% Rovers win
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Sept 12, 2014 15:50:54 GMT
That's 3 genuine punters. Myself, @centenary Gas and RD and we all think Lincoln are great value, we can't all be wrong. My head is telling me to bet against us but my heart is saying don't bet. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2014 16:17:42 GMT
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Sept 12, 2014 17:36:45 GMT
We are unjustified favourites regardless. Do you disagree with that or do you want to argue for argument's sake? |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2014 18:38:16 GMT
We are unjustified favourites regardless. Do you disagree with that or do you want to argue for argument's sake? I merely stated that we were "marginal" favourites. You argued otherwise and I provided the evidence to prove you wrong. |
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Sept 12, 2014 19:09:05 GMT
We are unjustified favourites regardless. Do you disagree with that or do you want to argue for argument's sake? I merely stated that we were "marginal" favourites. You argued otherwise and I provided the evidence to prove you wrong. Marginal but there is a big difference between what they are and what they should be. |
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Post by gashead22 on Sept 13, 2014 13:07:23 GMT
I merely stated that we were "marginal" favourites. You argued otherwise and I provided the evidence to prove you wrong. Marginal but there is a big difference between what they are and what they should be. I get what you're saying but maybe as gasheads and what happened at Braintree has made us a bit too negative and biased. Talk about away records all you like but the stats say we have 10 points out of 15 and Lincoln have 3 out of 12 - and that in a derby where all form goes out the window. Forest green was a good away performance and Braintree from an outside point of view just looks a blip. And another thing - we may be favourites but our odds aren't that short really. Bookies are still saying its more likely for us not to win than it is to win... |
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Post by gashead22 on Sept 13, 2014 13:09:04 GMT
And also all the odds are really saying is that it is almost impossible to call at this stage - which I think is fair enough. We could win or lose 4-0 today I have no idea what the result will be!
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Sept 13, 2014 13:44:24 GMT
Marginal but there is a big difference between what they are and what they should be. I get what you're saying but maybe as gasheads and what happened at Braintree has made us a bit too negative and biased. Talk about away records all you like but the stats say we have 10 points out of 15 and Lincoln have 3 out of 12 - and that in a derby where all form goes out the window. Forest green was a good away performance and Braintree from an outside point of view just looks a blip. And another thing - we may be favourites but our odds aren't that short really. Bookies are still saying its more likely for us not to win than it is to win... Not negative just realistic bud. We've won 3 away games in 18 months and 0 so far this season yet we are favourites to win away to a reasonably sized Conference club. You could look at that another way and say that the bookies still think us winning is the most likely result which I strongly disagree with and think it is the least likely result of the 3. |
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Post by Jon the Stripe on Sept 13, 2014 15:26:40 GMT
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Post by inee on Sept 13, 2014 16:10:39 GMT
jon he told you so  |
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