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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2019 6:18:33 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2019 7:50:04 GMT
A one-off cost of 6 billion to save 20+ billion every single year. That is 200+ billion in the first ten years alone. In my mind that stands up to any financial analysis. You did say you worked in the City didn't you? Were you very successful? Sorry, no need to answer that. Not sure I agree with your savings, even so how much of that is genuine discretionary spend and how much is used to offset the costs such as stimulus packages, tariff offsets, tax cuts or promises to retain existing spending? That simple arithmetic also does not build in the impact of leaving with no deal on the economy over the medium term leading to lower tax incomes than would have otherwise been the case. I realise he is a bit of a Bete Noir among the numerically challenged leave community, but Mark Carney forecast this to be in the tens of billions. Agree or disagree I have not seen one quantified leaver plan that suggests otherwise.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2019 8:14:41 GMT
Not sure I agree with your savings, even so how much of that is genuine discretionary spend and how much is used to offset the costs such as stimulus packages, tariff offsets, tax cuts or promises to retain existing spending? That simple arithmetic also does not build in the impact of leaving with no deal on the economy over the medium term leading to lower tax incomes than would have otherwise been the case. I realise he is a bit of a Bete Noir among the numerically challenged leave community, but Mark Carney forecast this to be in the tens of billions. Agree or disagree I have not seen one quantified leaver plan that suggests otherwise. Eh, what? Tens of billions due to lower tax take? Where on earth did that magic number come from? Mark Carney's BoE Brexit forecasts have been shown to be well wide of the mark so far haven't they.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2019 10:36:50 GMT
That simple arithmetic also does not build in the impact of leaving with no deal on the economy over the medium term leading to lower tax incomes than would have otherwise been the case. I realise he is a bit of a Bete Noir among the numerically challenged leave community, but Mark Carney forecast this to be in the tens of billions. Agree or disagree I have not seen one quantified leaver plan that suggests otherwise. Eh, what? Tens of billions due to lower tax take? Where on earth did that magic number come from? Mark Carney's BoE Brexit forecasts have been shown to be well wide of the mark so far haven't they. Round numbers, not necessarily exactly what Carney forecast. The UK tax revenue as a % of GDP was 33.3% in 2017. The OECD average is 34.7 so we are doing ok, relatively. The BoE has completed an annual phased forecast of the impact a no deal scenario and the cumulative impact is circa £90billion less than it would it be if we remain. (Round numbers, too lazy to go back and search) So, 33.3% of £90B is equal to £30 billion less to spend. Like I said a crude summary, but either way you look at it it ain't pretty. And no amount of bluff, bluster, revisionist excuses and outright lying will change it. Of course us remainers could be totally wrong, and there is indeed a properly quantified plan to be phased in over the next decade which indicates a positive net gain, both economically, environmentally and socially. I must have missed it. Anybody seen it? Or was that a flock of pigs flying high whistling "Dixie" OECD link www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statistics-united-kingdom.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiswvqC45jkAhVRalAKHfqXCgoQFjABegQIDxAG&usg=AOvVaw3rpzgjwgIHyiCQR8RIdFk_
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2019 10:48:46 GMT
Eh, what? Tens of billions due to lower tax take? Where on earth did that magic number come from? Mark Carney's BoE Brexit forecasts have been shown to be well wide of the mark so far haven't they. Round numbers, not necessarily exactly what Carney forecast. The UK tax revenue as a % of GDP was 33.3% in 2017. The OECD average is 34.7 so we are doing ok, relatively. The BoE has completed an annual phased forecast of the impact a no deal scenario and the cumulative impact is circa £90billion less than it would it be if we remain. (Round numbers, too lazy to go back and search) So, 33.3% of £90B is equal to £30 billion less to spend. Like I said a crude summary, but either way you look at it it ain't pretty. And no amount of bluff, bluster, revisionist excuses and outright lying will change it. Of course us remainers could be totally wrong, and there is indeed a properly quantified plan to be phased in over the next decade which indicates a positive net gain, both economically, environmentally and socially. I must have missed it. Anybody seen it? Or was that a flock of pigs flying high whistling "Dixie" OECD link www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statistics-united-kingdom.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiswvqC45jkAhVRalAKHfqXCgoQFjABegQIDxAG&usg=AOvVaw3rpzgjwgIHyiCQR8RIdFk_So, you are using tax revenues based on the whole GDP of the UK. Are you being serious? Where will this loss of tax income come from? Income tax? Corporation tax? Where? Please explain where on earth the UK will lose 30 billion in tax. Is this the same 6% drop in GDP that was forecast to happen just after the vote to Leave? You do realise that only something like 8% of companies in the UK deal with import/export? The figures you have produced are just pure fantasy.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2019 11:58:30 GMT
Round numbers, not necessarily exactly what Carney forecast. The UK tax revenue as a % of GDP was 33.3% in 2017. The OECD average is 34.7 so we are doing ok, relatively. The BoE has completed an annual phased forecast of the impact a no deal scenario and the cumulative impact is circa £90billion less than it would it be if we remain. (Round numbers, too lazy to go back and search) So, 33.3% of £90B is equal to £30 billion less to spend. Like I said a crude summary, but either way you look at it it ain't pretty. And no amount of bluff, bluster, revisionist excuses and outright lying will change it. Of course us remainers could be totally wrong, and there is indeed a properly quantified plan to be phased in over the next decade which indicates a positive net gain, both economically, environmentally and socially. I must have missed it. Anybody seen it? Or was that a flock of pigs flying high whistling "Dixie" OECD link www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statistics-united-kingdom.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiswvqC45jkAhVRalAKHfqXCgoQFjABegQIDxAG&usg=AOvVaw3rpzgjwgIHyiCQR8RIdFk_So, you are using tax revenues based on the whole GDP of the UK. Are you being serious? Where will this loss of tax income come from? Income tax? Corporation tax? Where? Please explain where on earth the UK will lose 30 billion in tax. Is this the same 6% drop in GDP that was forecast to happen just after the vote to Leave? You do realise that only something like 8% of companies in the UK deal with import/export? The figures you have produced are just pure fantasy. Not at all. Your bumptious response might have some grounding in fact if tax revenues staid static in a recession. But they dont. Government borrowing always increases, unless they slash spending under austerity, when it goes up anyway. Doubled since the Austerity was implemented in 2010.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2019 12:57:15 GMT
Meanwhile I dont want to say I told you, but I bloody told you. Did Austerity in the UK Lead to the Brexit Crisis? flip.it/X4iDPv
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2019 13:26:05 GMT
I was driving to work this morning, enjoying the beauty of the Forest of Dean and into the Wye valley, when I heard this on the radio. Tory MP mocked after saying that 'alternative arrangements' for the … flip.it/YoKgQuNow I know I mock leavers for their very obvious disconnect from reality (and their tendency to be led by the nose) but this beyond mockery.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2019 15:36:27 GMT
I was driving to work this morning, enjoying the beauty of the Forest of Dean and into the Wye valley, when I heard this on the radio. Tory MP mocked after saying that 'alternative arrangements' for the … flip.it/YoKgQuNow I know I mock leavers for their very obvious disconnect from reality (and their tendency to be led by the nose) but this beyond mockery. I think she is alluding to the fact that Australia is so remote you don't just ship stuff there and hope it clears customs. You do all the necessary paperwork first. So, you prepare in advance, something that can very easily be replicated in Ireland. The question is just how does Australia go about this? It's a good point which is lost on the narrow minded.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2019 15:38:21 GMT
So, you are using tax revenues based on the whole GDP of the UK. Are you being serious? Where will this loss of tax income come from? Income tax? Corporation tax? Where? Please explain where on earth the UK will lose 30 billion in tax. Is this the same 6% drop in GDP that was forecast to happen just after the vote to Leave? You do realise that only something like 8% of companies in the UK deal with import/export? The figures you have produced are just pure fantasy. Not at all. Your bumptious response might have some grounding in fact if tax revenues staid static in a recession. But they dont. Government borrowing always increases, unless they slash spending under austerity, when it goes up anyway. Doubled since the Austerity was implemented in 2010. A recession? Is that a given fact then, leaving the EU will lead to a recession?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2019 15:39:56 GMT
Meanwhile I dont want to say I told you, but I bloody told you. Did Austerity in the UK Lead to the Brexit Crisis? flip.it/X4iDPvHa,ha. I think you will find that the public's discontent with the EU goes way back before 2010. Try another line.
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Post by South Stand Ultra on Aug 25, 2019 9:45:31 GMT
Meanwhile I dont want to say I told you, but I bloody told you. Did Austerity in the UK Lead to the Brexit Crisis? flip.it/X4iDPvHa,ha. I think you will find that the public's discontent with the EU goes way back before 2010. Try another line.
Precisely Nobby, precisely.
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Post by baggins on Aug 25, 2019 10:26:35 GMT
Meanwhile I dont want to say I told you, but I bloody told you. Did Austerity in the UK Lead to the Brexit Crisis? flip.it/X4iDPvHa,ha. I think you will find that the public's discontent with the EU goes way back before 2010. Try another line. Why did we join then?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2019 12:02:41 GMT
Ha,ha. I think you will find that the public's discontent with the EU goes way back before 2010. Try another line. Why did we join then? Indeed Baggins. I bet you that Nobby made no attempt to read the analysis that informed that report. So typical.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2019 12:03:28 GMT
Ha,ha. I think you will find that the public's discontent with the EU goes way back before 2010. Try another line.
Precisely Nobby, precisely.
You actually read the report SSU??
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2019 12:07:00 GMT
Not at all. Your bumptious response might have some grounding in fact if tax revenues staid static in a recession. But they dont. Government borrowing always increases, unless they slash spending under austerity, when it goes up anyway. Doubled since the Austerity was implemented in 2010. A recession? Is that a given fact then, leaving the EU will lead to a recession? That was not claimed. As you well know. Just to repeat, for clarity, any shortfall in gdp from potential will lead to an equivalent fall in tax revenues. Which is why the savings on contributions to the EU are gross (of the net contribution currently made) and not net.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2019 12:12:10 GMT
I was driving to work this morning, enjoying the beauty of the Forest of Dean and into the Wye valley, when I heard this on the radio. Tory MP mocked after saying that 'alternative arrangements' for the … flip.it/YoKgQuNow I know I mock leavers for their very obvious disconnect from reality (and their tendency to be led by the nose) but this beyond mockery. I think she is alluding to the fact that Australia is so remote you don't just ship stuff there and hope it clears customs. You do all the necessary paperwork first. So, you prepare in advance, something that can very easily be replicated in Ireland. The question is just how does Australia go about this? It's a good point which is lost on the narrow minded. Laugh Australia has no land borders. The UK already has an import and export process for products brought in or sent out by sea or air and train freight. Nah, another dense Tory leaver.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2019 7:45:23 GMT
A recession? Is that a given fact then, leaving the EU will lead to a recession? That was not claimed. As you well know. Just to repeat, for clarity, any shortfall in gdp from potential will lead to an equivalent fall in tax revenues. Which is why the savings on contributions to the EU are gross (of the net contribution currently made) and not net. But you said, and I quote, "Your bumptious response might have some grounding in fact if tax revenues staid static in a recession. But they don't" This implies that you are forecasting the tax take will reduce due to a recession! Have you thought about changing your username to Luftwaffe, because you crash and burn over the UK every single day !
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2019 7:53:08 GMT
I think she is alluding to the fact that Australia is so remote you don't just ship stuff there and hope it clears customs. You do all the necessary paperwork first. So, you prepare in advance, something that can very easily be replicated in Ireland. The question is just how does Australia go about this? It's a good point which is lost on the narrow minded. Laugh Australia has no land borders. The UK already has an import and export process for products brought in or sent out by sea or air and train freight. Nah, another dense Tory leaver. It doesn't matter if it is a land border or not. If the proper procedures are in place for import/export then there should not be any problems. Is there any real technical difference to a lorry crossing a land border compared to a lorry driving off of a ship in regards to imports/exports? You need to open your eyes and mind.
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Post by peterparker on Aug 26, 2019 13:50:54 GMT
More Porkie Pies by The PM
Of course we should remember that (Also applies to other products)
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