Why is a win essential Saturday? My thoughts.

If you don't like figures and analysis then READ no further!!

Some will say and in a way they are right that it doesn't matter where you get your points as long as you get them however the reason I say Saturday is so important is that a) it will have a great boost on confidence b) it will mean that no teams below us can overtake us c) It would give us a chance to put two more teams BELOW us as Gillingham are playing Shrewsbury. d)it would also mean that whatever Wimbledons result Saturday they could not go above us by beating us in the next game e) it could possibly mean that some teams(as many as 4) could be 6 points behind us and or as many as 6 teams be 4 points behind us which would basically mean if we didn't pick up a further point this season then four teams would all need to win 2 and draw 1 of their remaining 4 games to get above us f) Possibly the most important of all it will give us the fans belief and more will come to the remaining games.


Posssible scenarios after Saturday. I have put a * on my favourite result and W on the worst. Each group goes in order Home Win, draw, Away win.


Accrington  48  Walsall 42
Accrington  46  Walsall 43 *
Accrington  45  Walsall 45  W

Gillingham  51 Shrewsbury 47
Gillingham  49 Shrewsbury 48 *
Gillingham  48 Shrewsbury 50 W

Southend   46 Wycombe  44  W
Southend   44 Wycombe  45 *
Southend   43 Wycombe  47

Bristol Rovers 49  Bradford   36 *
Bristol Rovers 47  Bradford   37
Bristol Rovers 46 Bradford    39 W

Portsmouth  -   Rochdale  45 *
Portsmouth - Rochdale 46
Portsmouth - Rochdale 48 W

Scunthorpe 48  Burton -  W
Scunthorpe 46 Burton -
Scunthorpe 45 Burton -  *

Oxford  55  Wimbledon  43 *
Oxford 53   Wimbledon 44
Oxford 52  Wimbledon 46  W

Doncaster  -  Plymouth 47 *
Doncaster -   Plymouth 48
Doncaster -   Plymouth 50 W

With what I consider the best results the lower half of the table Saturday night would look something like this

Oxford          P  42    Pts  55
Bristol R        P 42    Pts   49
Gillingham    P  42    Pts   49
Shrewsbury  P  42    Pts    48
Plymouth      P  42    Pts    47
Accrington    P  42    Pts    46
Wycombe     P 42      Pts   45

Scunthorpe   P  42    Pts    45
Rochdale      P  42    Pts    45
_________________________
Southend     P  42     Pts   44
Wimbledon   P  42    Pts    43
Walsall         P  42    Pts    43
Bradford      P   42   Pts    36

Compare this to the worst scenario based on my worst results!!

Oxford         P  42    Pts   52
Shrewsbury  P  42    Pts   50
Plymouth     P   42   Pts   50
Gillingham   P   42   Pts    48
Scunthorpe  P   42   Pts    48
Rochdale     P    42  Pts    48
Bristol R      P    42   Pts   46
Southend    P    42   Pts   46
Wimbledon  P    42   Pts   46_______________________
Accrington  P    42   Pts   45
Walsall        P    42  Pts    45
Wycombe    P    42   Pts   44
Bradford     P     42   Pts   39

Other factors which could very much give an indication as to events after Saturday is the remaining fixtures which see many teams below playing each other and it could well be that the 49 points be the safety point though 52 would almost certainly mean safety. Rochdale and Wycombe each play three of their four remaining 4 games against teams in the lower half above. For me provided we win Saturday then Accringtons remaining fixtures could see them dropping into the drop zone as their fixtures are Luton home, Doncaster away, Plymouth Home, Portsmouth Away!!
This is why I think a win Saturday is far more important than other games won after it because if we win I can see the first table pretty much guaranteeing us League 1 football next year whereas the second doesn't bear thinking about both for the closeness of it and the effect it would have on the rest of the games. UTG