Marshy
Proper Gas
Posts: 14,088
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Post by Marshy on Jan 15, 2020 15:02:56 GMT
If the teams near the bottom pick up the same points per game as they have done so far to target for safety is 42. It will be less than the usual 50 because it's only a 44 game season but it's likely to be higher than 42. As we did last year, teams at the bottom often make a few January signings and tend to pick up after Christmas It's all guesswork but I personally think 45 points would probably be enough this season. So 3 wins or 2 wins and 3 draws from 20 games. Having picked up 34 points from our first 19 games it would be record breaking if we fail to pick up 11 from the next 25. Having said that, Southend have only picked up 10 points from their 25 games so far. I think we will end up very close to the bottom 3 and almost certainly 18th or below but I think we'll just have enough in the bag to survive. Hard to believe we're having to discuss this after the Ipswich euphoria. I think it will be higher than 42, teams usually pick up some form/points towards the end of the season as the desperation kicks in. I don't think we'll go down this season, but I am genuinely struggling to see/understand when we'll next win a game. With the way we're playing right now, our only chance is Vs Southend, although that's away so god help us! We’ve got Bolton away first, imagine the meltdown on here if we lose that one too!
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Post by baggins on Jan 15, 2020 15:07:46 GMT
Wonder if the "Coughlan out" brigade are still posting? GC out there you are Thank you Yoda.
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Post by daniel300380 on Jan 15, 2020 15:08:54 GMT
This is the strangest season that I can remember. Going from a side that were 4th weeks ago after winning at Ipswich looking like a solid bet for promotion,to where we are today.Bizzare as it is we are still only 2 points from the playoffs with a game in hand and 8pts from 2nd place! Wtf...!! But Im not looking at that.We are 14 points from the drop zone and with what has happened to this side in the last month GC leaving and now the BG situation I honestly cant see where the next victory is coming from as we have become a truely terrible side overnight. The luck we have had with GC leaving and now with BG personal problems.Losing our top GK to injury, our main striker never being 100% fit as well as all the other injurys to important players.. There is always one team that drops like a stone each season and goes down,and I really fear its going to be us this season.A 14 point gap could be 7/8 gap within weeks and then we will be in trouble. Probally only need around 9 more points to stay up. Could be less, but say 12 to make sure. When player's return and with one or two more player's, we should get that many. If we lost the next 5 or 6, we would change manager's again anyway. I had a pound on at 250/1 just in case though.
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Post by Gassy on Jan 15, 2020 15:10:57 GMT
I think it will be higher than 42, teams usually pick up some form/points towards the end of the season as the desperation kicks in. I don't think we'll go down this season, but I am genuinely struggling to see/understand when we'll next win a game. With the way we're playing right now, our only chance is Vs Southend, although that's away so god help us! We’ve got Bolton away first, imagine the meltdown on here if we lose that one too! Tbh, I fully expect us to lose to Bolton
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Post by pirate49 on Jan 15, 2020 15:15:08 GMT
Relegation is not an option. ...and look what's happening to the bloke who said that!
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Marshy
Proper Gas
Posts: 14,088
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Post by Marshy on Jan 15, 2020 18:11:33 GMT
We’ve got Bolton away first, imagine the meltdown on here if we lose that one too! Tbh, I fully expect us to lose to Bolton I bloody hope not! Everyone seems to be battering them again now.
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Post by daniel300380 on Jan 15, 2020 18:45:51 GMT
Tbh, I fully expect us to lose to Bolton I bloody hope not! Everyone seems to be battering them again now. They have been losing again, but not being battered. They lost 5 1 the other night, but missed chances when it was 1 1 and 2 1 with not long to go. Let in 3 let goals then though. Hopefully they will get points this week or next week, as we don't want to be the team that ends their bad run again lol
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Post by GasAttacK on Jan 15, 2020 18:55:26 GMT
Bolton have only won 1 of their last 9 games and that was home to Southend.
They also took a couple of hammerings 7-1 Accrington and 5-1 Lincoln.
Their away form is absolutely shocking. 9 losses in 11 games. Just 1 win and we all know where that was. They've only scored 5 goals away from home all season, 2 of those at the Mem.
Having said all that, their home form isn't as bad. They've only lost 3 at home all season.
The way we're playing at the moment I can't see us even getting a draw.
I'm more worried about our games against Tranmere, Wimbledon, Accrington and Rochdale because if they all avoid the drop we're in serious trouble.
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Post by Topper Gas on Jan 15, 2020 19:20:12 GMT
Bolton have only won 1 of their last 9 games and that was home to Southend. They also took a couple of hammerings 7-1 Accrington and 5-1 Lincoln. Their away form is absolutely shocking. 9 losses in 11 games. Just 1 win and we all know where that was. They've only scored 5 goals away from home all season, 2 of those at the Mem. Having said all that, their home form isn't as bad. They've only lost 3 at home all season. The way we're playing at the moment I can't see us even getting a draw. I'm more worried about our games against Tranmere, Wimbledon, Accrington and Rochdale because if they all avoid the drop we're in serious trouble. What does it matter what their away form is like when we're playing them away? As things stand I don't think we've a hope in hell of avoiding defeat unless Ogogo ever returns and makes an impact &/or we sign some quality players get some leadership on the sidelines. Has anybody worked out what effect Bolton and Southend being backet cases this season as on the rest of the table as if they finish up with 20pts less than usual could it mean the usual 50 pts is not enough to stay up? Edit: Just spent 5 mins predicting our results until the end of Feb on the thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php predictor and that's suggesting with the odd win we'll get to 51pts which could be 4pts more than the last relegation spot, although that means picking up some wins v Blackpool & Shrewsbury etc, I'm not even sure we're capable of that on present form. I can't see how fans are suggesting 44/45pts might be enough to stay up.
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Post by socrates on Jan 15, 2020 19:24:32 GMT
If the teams near the bottom pick up the same points per game as they have done so far to target for safety is 42. It will be less than the usual 50 because it's only a 44 game season but it's likely to be higher than 42. As we did last year, teams at the bottom often make a few January signings and tend to pick up after Christmas It's all guesswork but I personally think 45 points would probably be enough this season. So 3 wins or 2 wins and 3 draws from 20 games. Having picked up 34 points from our first 19 games it would be record breaking if we fail to pick up 11 from the next 25. Having said that, Southend have only picked up 10 points from their 25 games so far. I think we will end up very close to the bottom 3 and almost certainly 18th or below but I think we'll just have enough in the bag to survive. Hard to believe we're having to discuss this after the Ipswich euphoria. Surely even the most pessimistic gashead thinks we can pick up 10 points in 20 games! Does this need a straight yes or no poll?! How about can you see where our next goal is coming from poll ?
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Post by Topper Gas on Jan 15, 2020 19:32:57 GMT
Surely even the most pessimistic gashead thinks we can pick up 10 points in 20 games! Does this need a straight yes or no poll?! How about can you see where our next goal is coming from poll ? A shot on goal from open play most be more achievable? I'm targetting the Blackpool home, if we do manage a shot on target in that game then hopefully it finds the back of the net!
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Post by Icegas on Jan 15, 2020 19:57:58 GMT
Bolton have only won 1 of their last 9 games and that was home to Southend. They also took a couple of hammerings 7-1 Accrington and 5-1 Lincoln. Their away form is absolutely shocking. 9 losses in 11 games. Just 1 win and we all know where that was. They've only scored 5 goals away from home all season, 2 of those at the Mem. Having said all that, their home form isn't as bad. They've only lost 3 at home all season. The way we're playing at the moment I can't see us even getting a draw. I'm more worried about our games against Tranmere, Wimbledon, Accrington and Rochdale because if they all avoid the drop we're in serious trouble. Thats my concern.Maher when interview on You tube looked like a man that doesnt have a clue what to do,nor knows whats going on! Its nothing to do with him,nor do I blame him.But the squad is tired,down to its bare bones and the way we are playing I dont see how we are going to pick up a draw,yet alone a victory. If I was the board I would say Ben, take the next few months off and be with your family and then restart here in May at the end of the season.I wouldnt want him walking into the poisonous environment here at our club after him going through his personal issues. Then I would get on the blower to warnock and or another older head say take charge until the end of the season.
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Post by Antonio Fargas on Jan 15, 2020 20:50:08 GMT
Bolton have only won 1 of their last 9 games and that was home to Southend. They also took a couple of hammerings 7-1 Accrington and 5-1 Lincoln. Their away form is absolutely shocking. 9 losses in 11 games. Just 1 win and we all know where that was. They've only scored 5 goals away from home all season, 2 of those at the Mem. Having said all that, their home form isn't as bad. They've only lost 3 at home all season. The way we're playing at the moment I can't see us even getting a draw. I'm more worried about our games against Tranmere, Wimbledon, Accrington and Rochdale because if they all avoid the drop we're in serious trouble. What does it matter what their away form is like when we're playing them away? As things stand I don't think we've a hope in hell of avoiding defeat unless Ogogo ever returns and makes an impact &/or we sign some quality players get some leadership on the sidelines. Has anybody worked out what effect Bolton and Southend being backet cases this season as on the rest of the table as if they finish up with 20pts less than usual could it mean the usual 50 pts is not enough to stay up? Edit: Just spent 5 mins predicting our results until the end of Feb on the thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php predictor and that's suggesting with the odd win we'll get to 51pts which could be 4pts more than the last relegation spot, although that means picking up some wins v Blackpool & Shrewsbury etc, I'm not even sure we're capable of that on present form. I can't see how fans are suggesting 44/45pts might be enough to stay up. 538 seems to think 43 points would be enough to stay up: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/
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Post by Topper Gas on Jan 15, 2020 21:07:25 GMT
What does it matter what their away form is like when we're playing them away? As things stand I don't think we've a hope in hell of avoiding defeat unless Ogogo ever returns and makes an impact &/or we sign some quality players get some leadership on the sidelines. Has anybody worked out what effect Bolton and Southend being backet cases this season as on the rest of the table as if they finish up with 20pts less than usual could it mean the usual 50 pts is not enough to stay up? Edit: Just spent 5 mins predicting our results until the end of Feb on the thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php predictor and that's suggesting with the odd win we'll get to 51pts which could be 4pts more than the last relegation spot, although that means picking up some wins v Blackpool & Shrewsbury etc, I'm not even sure we're capable of that on present form. I can't see how fans are suggesting 44/45pts might be enough to stay up. 538 seems to think 43 points would be enough to stay up: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/That has us finishing above Shrewsbury even though they are only 3pts behind us, I'd put money on them being above us when we play them let alone May!
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Post by Antonio Fargas on Jan 15, 2020 21:26:35 GMT
That has us finishing above Shrewsbury even though they are only 3pts behind us, I'd put money on them being above us when we play them let alone May! Yeah, I don't think a site like that is gonna necessarily be that accurate for an individual team, especially one like ours where a statistical analysis might not reflect the actuality. But, it is gonna be more reliable where there is a bigger sample size, so it might be more accurate over the points required to stay up.
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Post by paulpirate on Jan 15, 2020 22:08:43 GMT
This is all a bit ott,do you think Wycombe fans are saying the same
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Post by Topper Gas on Jan 15, 2020 22:16:28 GMT
This is all a bit ott,do you think Wycombe fans are saying the same They've already got 44 pts they probably only need to beat us in a couple of weeks to be safe! Although I doubt they ever expected to be in the top 2 come May anyway, this run of fixtures always looked tough, whereas we're losing to the likes of Wimbledon.
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Post by mariobalotelli on Jan 16, 2020 14:29:05 GMT
I don't think we ever looked a solid bet for promotion. Even at 4th. Performance was not good, hence why people wanted Coughlan out and why attendances were down. To me, it was just a matter of time when the wheels come off, even if Coughlan was still here in charge. Wonder if the "Coughlan out" brigade are still posting? 👋
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Post by yaz on Jan 16, 2020 23:11:25 GMT
But apparently fans were staying away because of his style of play? I really don't think it was that, I think it's more a generation game ( you can run with that one ) , people are not so keen to go to games any more, Bristol is more avocado on toast than beacon and eggs these days. There are so many neutrals who I have been with to see Rovers especially away. Most games away, people are really astonished at the Gas support, including home fans. And they will come again to watch us. Why? Our football last 2 seasons has not been beautiful in any way but stalwart. We have beaten Ipswich, Rotherham and Oxford. Things look so grim now but compared to relegation to Conference a few years ago? What are the odds of us beating the Millers this weekend; probably the best team to watch in the League with Matt Crooks in midfield driving them? You never know, we could grind the Millers, especially if we get a fair referee. UTG
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