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Post by oldmarket65 on Feb 26, 2023 14:20:33 GMT
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Safe now
Feb 26, 2023 14:50:15 GMT
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Post by percy on Feb 26, 2023 14:50:15 GMT
So 51 pts should almost guarantee safety. Good chance lower. Let’s get there asap and enjoy taking some points of the top 6!
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Post by Colyton Gas on Feb 26, 2023 14:56:50 GMT
So 51 pts should almost guarantee safety. Good chance lower. Let’s get there asap and enjoy taking some points of the top 6! So vital to get safe.Remember one year we made mathematical certainty at JB's Fleetwood. New South Stand/Cover expanding the capacity so the thought of;Sutton,Barrow and Harrogate doesn't fill me with optimism.Beat Barnsley Sat and sure we'll make it but they did put 4 past Derby yesterday so may be tougher to beat than Oxford!!!! See Torquay,Scunthorpe and Yeovil in dire trouble with the oblivion of another relegation looming!!!
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Safe now
Feb 26, 2023 16:03:43 GMT
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Post by Sir Trevor B'Sol on Feb 26, 2023 16:03:43 GMT
Just for context:
RELEGATED from EFL 1 to EFL 2.
2004-05 Torquay United with 51 Points.
RELEGATED from CHAMPIONSHIP to EFL 1.
2007-08 Leicester City with 52 points.
2012-13 Peterborough United with 54 points.
2016-17 Blackburn Rovers with 51 Points.
Safety is not a fixed number.
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Safe now
Feb 26, 2023 16:40:16 GMT
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Feb 26, 2023 16:40:16 GMT
Just for context: RELEGATED from EFL 1 to EFL 2. 2004-05 Torquay United with 51 Points. RELEGATED from CHAMPIONSHIP to EFL 1. 2007-08 Leicester City with 52 points. 2012-13 Peterborough United with 54 points. 2016-17 Blackburn Rovers with 51 Points. Safety is not a fixed number. It's not but it will certainly be lower than 52.
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Safe now
Feb 26, 2023 16:44:24 GMT
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Post by dudelebowski on Feb 26, 2023 16:44:24 GMT
Seen FGR’s next 7/8 fixtures?
Down by Easter that lot.
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Post by nsblue on Feb 26, 2023 16:52:28 GMT
Without wishing to sound pessimistic but our first relegation to the bottom division in 2001 was achieved with 51 points and a -4 goal difference We were 11 points above the team in 22nd
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Post by seanclevedongas on Feb 26, 2023 20:31:21 GMT
I hope we are safe before the final fortnight.
With the postponed game against Plymouth being rearranged for Tuesday April 25th our last four fixtures are
Port Vale Away Plymouth Away Posh Away Bolton Home
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Safe now
Feb 26, 2023 20:43:47 GMT
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Post by percy on Feb 26, 2023 20:43:47 GMT
I hope we are safe before the final fortnight. With the postponed game against Plymouth being rearranged for Tuesday April 25th our last four fixtures are Port Vale Away Plymouth Away Posh Away Bolton Home Think we’ll get 6 pts from that. 3 draws and a win. Predicting we finish on 59pts
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Safe now
Feb 26, 2023 21:21:28 GMT
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Post by wallywalters on Feb 26, 2023 21:21:28 GMT
We are far from safe. If Gibson stays fit I'm confident we can get enough points before those final tough games. If he gets Injured I'm not confident at all in our defence to keep out enough goals to amass the 51 plus points we need.
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Safe now
Feb 26, 2023 21:36:56 GMT
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Feb 26, 2023 21:36:56 GMT
We are far from safe. If Gibson stays fit I'm confident we can get enough points before those final tough games. If he gets Injured I'm not confident at all in our defence to keep out enough goals to amass the 51 plus points we need. We don't need 51 plus points, why do you think we do?
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Post by gasandelectricity on Feb 26, 2023 21:47:06 GMT
We will be fine!
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Safe now
Feb 26, 2023 21:49:23 GMT
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Post by wallywalters on Feb 26, 2023 21:49:23 GMT
We are far from safe. If Gibson stays fit I'm confident we can get enough points before those final tough games. If he gets Injured I'm not confident at all in our defence to keep out enough goals to amass the 51 plus points we need. We don't need 51 plus points, why do you think we do? Why do you think we don't? You happy to gamble that 40,s would be enough? Cus I'm not.
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Safe now
Feb 26, 2023 21:50:35 GMT
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Feb 26, 2023 21:50:35 GMT
We don't need 51 plus points, why do you think we do? Why do you think we don't? You happy to gamble that 40,s would be enough? Cus I'm not. I don't think we will need near 51. Mid 40s will prob be enough.
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Post by yattongas on Feb 26, 2023 21:52:43 GMT
Think 50 points will be enough this season. If we can’t get 9 more points until the end of the season we deserve to get relegated.
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Post by GasAttacK on Feb 26, 2023 22:23:07 GMT
Putting things in context. We could go on a shocking run if we W 1 D 4 L 8 which will give us 48 with a better GD (49) and stay up based on that last 3 years. The thing is, we've just proved we're well capable of going on a bad run by losing 5 out of 6 against some of the weakest sides in L1. Looking back over the past 15 years, often the team in 20th ends on 50 or 51, so that has to be the minimum target. As Sir Trev said above, Peterborough got relegated from the Championship on 54 points and that was with only 3 teams going down. I'm hopeful we won't need 52+ this season, but you never know and given our run in, I won't be counting any chickens until we get to at least 50+.
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Post by yattongas on Feb 26, 2023 22:27:05 GMT
Putting things in context. We could go on a shocking run if we W 1 D 4 L 8 which will give us 48 with a better GD (49) and stay up based on that last 3 years. The thing is, we've just proved we're well capable of going on a bad run by losing 5 out of 6 against some of the weakest sides in L1. Looking back over the past 15 years, often the team in 20th ends on 50 or 51, so that has to be the minimum target. So 3W, 1D, 9L or 2W, 4D, 7L. Given our run in I won't be counting any chickens until we get to 50+. But we’ve also proved we can get points off the bigger teams . I’m sure we’ll get those 9 points and a few more.
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Post by readinggas on Feb 27, 2023 9:43:59 GMT
So the average points tally for the final relegation spot (COVID season excluded) since 2004/5 is 48 (rounded from 47.7) points. 49-50 will see you sucked down just under 50% of the time. Being relegated on 51/52 points is highly unlikely but possible (see Torquay, although they had a horror show GD of -24; interestingly, Franchise FC would have also gone down same season on 51 had Wrexham not been deducted 10 points) Absolute safety appears to be 53 points.
Assuming our GD gets only a little worse than the current -8, 51 points should be fine
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Post by lastminutewinner on Feb 27, 2023 11:17:06 GMT
The bottoms sides are so bad the only team they manage to beat is us, and we only have FGR to play from that lot. It will take a lot for us to go down although not impossible
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Post by Quarters on Feb 27, 2023 13:00:52 GMT
We are safe when we are safe.
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