Brexit - The Final Reckoning

I wonder how many jobs in the UK will be lost as a result?

Good news.

"The UK and Canada have agreed a “rollover” deal to continue trading under existing terms as the current EU agreement when the Brexit transition period ends, the government has announced.

Boris Johnson and his Canadian counterpart Justin Trudeau sealed the “agreement in principle” during a video call on Saturday, the Department for International Trade said.

The agreement will roll over a settlement already agreed between the EU and Canada in the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (Ceta) and does not give any new benefits to UK businesses.

But the agreement avoids potentially damaging tariffs for businesses if negotiators had failed to secure a deal before the end of the Brexit transition period.

DIT said the agreement with Canada secured this weekend paves the way for negotiations to begin in the new year on a comprehensive deal with Canada, which Brexiteers have touted as a benefit of leaving the bloc."

www-independent-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-canada-deal-transition-end-b1759627.html?amp=&utm_source=upday.samsung.browser&utm_medium=referral

Managed to read an FT piece that wasn't behind a paywall.

"Why there will be a Brexit dealEveryone wants one, good politics and economics favour it, and the only snag — emotions — can be overcome

My optimism stems from two factors. The first is that there is no powerful actor in the Brexit arena that opposes a deal. Noisy yes, but powerful no.

British fishermen can kick up a stink in the tabloids, especially in Scotland given renewed sensitivities about Scottish independence. But Whitehall knows that fishing overall matters little to the economy. The same is true of the hardline Brexiters in Westminster who drive much of the anti-EU rhetoric. Boris Johnson’s parliamentary majority means this tail no longer wags the Tory dog. Dominic Cummings’ departure from Downing Street will further dilute the revolutionary streak within the Brexit camp.

Meanwhile on the EU side, no member state opposes a deal. The one constituency that could cause deadlock — fish, again — is divided between several EU countries and controls none of them. In short, there is no single emotive issue — like, say, agriculture — causing a big country to dig in its heels, as there often were in the major trade negotiations of old.

The EU is steamed up about Britain undercutting its state aid regime, but this will hardly bring French, Germans, Italians or Spaniards on to the streets. And on this, as on other outstanding issues, the poison can always be drawn by setting up vague “principles” or creating another technical committee. The EU has a drawerful of creative solutions for kicking an issue down the road and out of the headlines.

My second reason for optimism is geopolitical. With Donald Trump set to leave the White House, Brussels and London will work hard to restore transatlantic ties. Britain knows the EU matters to US president-elect Joe Biden, while the EU knows London’s ties with Washington run deeper than its own. A Brexit deal is the best gift they could make jointly to the incoming president, assuming his fears over the Irish border and the Good Friday peace agreement are allayed. Moreover, the perceived threat from China dwarfs any disagreements over Brexit. Britain, Europe and the US need each other like never before.

My confidence that there will be a deal wavers only when I consider the psychology of Brexit. The EU is driven by the head, but Brexit comes from the heart. It is a case of economic self-interest meets identity politics, and the EU is not accustomed to this. 

EU negotiating positions are typically a mixture of logic and tactics: explore the economic needs of its key countries (Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Poland, in that order); weave a compromise between them; then throw in a few morsels to buy off smaller EU countries, while building in some negotiating slack for the end-game. If the result looks good for the European economy as a whole, it becomes the basis for a negotiation.

Finally, the commission must prepare for “hostage-taking”: any last-minute demand by an EU country, possibly unrelated to Brexit, in return for its support. EU cash usually does the trick. But if it is a bigger issue — such as Spain and Gibraltar’s sovereignty — things could get messy. But the commission will have planned ahead for such crises too.

The problem with Brexit is that the referendum was seen in EU circles as a reaction to grievances largely unrelated to EU membership. The EU assumes that, even down to the wire, London does not know what it wants — but needs to make voters feel sovereignty has been restored. So, when the commission finally puts its negotiating steamroller into top gear, it could face some surprises. Here too though, ever-prepared, it will have done its crisis planning."

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ad90404c-6e30-4e1b-a009-6a0e79575700

It’s funny how Rolling over these trade deals is deemed a success but they were awful when the EU negotiated them in the first place

Even better news will be if we can get more deals with the British Commonwealth. India is an Asian economic powerhouse with close ties to us. Free from the shackles of the EU we could wrap up a trade deal with India within a year, not the average 7 years it takes the snail-paced EU to strike a deal. 

Time me to get behind your country chaps.

Anybody on here tried doing business with India?
It's a laugh a minute.

I'm always backing my country, Oldgas, wanting the best for it. That's why I voted remain.😇

Incidentally, what is this "British" Commonwealth?

As for India, hopefully but bear in mind the amount of jobs outsourced there over the past 20 years or so, including hundreds in my office alone. They are cheaper, but in my experience not better.

I want the best as well and voted leave, but I’m sure we can respect each others reasons. I say “British” Commonwealth as it was formed from the British Empire and the Queen is the the Commonwealth Head.

Having a trade deal with India is surely different to companies outsourcing call centre jobs to India, which I agree are a pain in the arse. However, I believe our trade with India is massive and if it can be done on improved terms then surely that’s a win win?

What the hell does this guy know??

www.cityam.com/boe-governor-andrew-bailey-no-deal-brexit-worse-for-economy-than-covid/