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Post by markczgas on Mar 3, 2019 21:38:10 GMT
Good form , Cogs has given us a chance. Scunthorpe up next , two draws and two wins from their last four at home. Will be tough. rovers 2 wins and 2 draws in last 4 away games
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Post by warehamgas on Mar 3, 2019 22:21:22 GMT
Yesterday was a good result but we didn’t move position. Those two wins by Shrewsbury and Oxford last week and Gillinghams good form meant that although we won we didn’t move. The bottom of the table is stretching out a bit with AFCW, Bradford and Rochdale being a lot worse off than us. Still 50/50 imo and likely to go to the last day. One of the good things is that the middle of the table is being drawn into the battle with us. No one from Wycombe in 12th with 43 points or below will be confident. Lots of points to play for and ultimately it’s up to us without the need to rely upon anyone else at the moment. UTG!
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Post by curlywurly on Mar 11, 2019 15:16:45 GMT
Experimental 361 now have Rovers as a 14% probability of relegation after Saturday's results, so we are improving all the time. Having said that, there was still a high probability that we would stay up in 2014. I won't breathe easy until we are mathematically safe. Far more teams than usual with a residual probability of relegation for this time of year.
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Post by aghast on Mar 11, 2019 18:11:37 GMT
View AttachmentExperimental 361 now have Rovers as a 14% probability of relegation after Saturday's results, so we are improving all the time. Having said that, there was still a high probability that we would stay up in 2014. I won't breathe easy until we are mathematically safe. Far more teams than usual with a residual probability of relegation for this time of year. Interesting chart. Only a few in with a real chance of automatic promotion, and half the league at risk of relegation.
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Post by Jomo on Mar 11, 2019 18:51:06 GMT
View AttachmentExperimental 361 now have Rovers as a 14% probability of relegation after Saturday's results, so we are improving all the time. Having said that, there was still a high probability that we would stay up in 2014. I won't breathe easy until we are mathematically safe. Far more teams than usual with a residual probability of relegation for this time of year. Interesting, thanks for posting. Any idea how they calculate these probabilities? Do they include historical points tallies, form, fixtures remaining etc?
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Post by socrates on Mar 11, 2019 19:00:19 GMT
View AttachmentExperimental 361 now have Rovers as a 14% probability of relegation after Saturday's results, so we are improving all the time. Having said that, there was still a high probability that we would stay up in 2014. I won't breathe easy until we are mathematically safe. Far more teams than usual with a residual probability of relegation for this time of year. Interesting, thanks for posting. Any idea how they calculate these probabilities? Do they include historical points tallies, form, fixtures remaining etc? I reckon they’ve looked at us and just gone , “ well they’ve got a beast up front playing alongside a Dam good technical player a tough midfield a sh** hot defence and a bloody good keeper this teams Dam dynamite and so are their fans, they’re staying up”.
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Post by stuartcampbell on Mar 11, 2019 19:06:36 GMT
Anyone else notice that the statistical data seems to have given us the same chance of relegation as it has of us finishing in the top half?
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Post by Jomo on Mar 11, 2019 19:06:44 GMT
Interesting, thanks for posting. Any idea how they calculate these probabilities? Do they include historical points tallies, form, fixtures remaining etc? I reckon they’ve looked at us and just gone , “ well they’ve got a beast up front playing alongside a f**king good technical player a tough midfield a sh** hot defence and a bloody good keeper this teams f**king dynamite and so are their fans, they’re staying up”. Can't argue with that!
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Post by warehamgas on Mar 11, 2019 20:55:38 GMT
After this last round of results I reckon we are the same as last week. I’d say we were evens to stay up. But with all the bottom clubs winning it draws those in mid table closer to the fight. Boiling up nicely!😉 When it’s like that, so close, I’m just glad that our form is pretty good and we must be in the top 8/9 and that’s got to be good. UTG!
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Post by curlywurly on Mar 12, 2019 21:57:57 GMT
Experimental 361 now have Rovers as a 14% probability of relegation after Saturday's results, so we are improving all the time. Having said that, there was still a high probability that we would stay up in 2014. I won't breathe easy until we are mathematically safe. Far more teams than usual with a residual probability of relegation for this time of year. Interesting, thanks for posting. Any idea how they calculate these probabilities? Do they include historical points tallies, form, fixtures remaining etc? Since you asked.......
Briefly, the forward prediction takes the current league standing as the starting point and then calculates future probability on a combination of the quality of chances that a team creates and the quality of the chances that they allow against them, rather than just their results.
From the start of the season, each team develops an e-rating made up of: - an attack rating which equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better) - a defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better).
The overall e-rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.
The table is based on probability outcomes based on the head to head e-ratings of the remaining fixtures.
All clear??
There will be a test later
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Post by aghast on Mar 12, 2019 23:24:10 GMT
Are there really teams of stattos at every game recording every pass, assist and kilometres run, or do they just faff up the numbers and everyone just laps it up?
Sceptical about how accurate this really is in L1 and 2.
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Post by warehamgas on Mar 13, 2019 9:38:48 GMT
After this round of results the table looks much better but in a way nothing has changed. Going on the table 3 points above the drop I’d say it’s still 50/50, evens. But look at our form, our defence and I’d say it’s probably 60/40 in favour of staying up. I like JCH but I’m worried about our dependence on him and the fact he seems to be hobbling after every match. Still a long way to go but I like the attitude of GC after last night. No euphoria, no complacency and accepting we’re still in trouble so we can expect him to be on their case. Finish a hard March out of the drop and 3/4 points away from it and I will be more confident. UTG!
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Post by wertongas on Mar 13, 2019 10:28:13 GMT
In the past it is usually teams with the worst goal difference that go down, but not always. Our goal difference suggests we could land up mid table but we do have some difficult games coming up. I studied the form, fixtures remaining of other teams and reckon we need about 52 points to avoid the drop, our superior goal difference is worth a point. I think we will land up with about 53/54 points so it could still be close. Oxford , Shrewsbury and Walsall are the teams most likely to go down with the bottom three at the moment.
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Post by warehamgas on Mar 13, 2019 10:59:59 GMT
In the past it is usually teams with the worst goal difference that go down, but not always. Our goal difference suggests we could land up mid table but we do have some difficult games coming up. I studied the form, fixtures remaining of other teams and reckon we need about 52 points to avoid the drop, our superior goal difference is worth a point. I think we will land up with about 53/54 points so it could still be close. Oxford , Shrewsbury and Walsall are the teams most likely to go down with the bottom three at the moment. Our GD does make it like an extra point. I’ve always thought we would need 53 to avoid it. I’ll stick with that but tbh the teams at the bottom want to avoid relegation more than the teams at the top seem to want promotion. Posh and Doncaster seem to be trying to outdo the other to avoid the last play off place. Both playing poorly, gives me hope for our match in hand. Standard not that high! UTG!
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Post by hardingegas on Mar 13, 2019 22:50:45 GMT
Looks as if anyone from 13th down are in the battle for survival now after last night's games. Walsall look to be struggling now as well as Southend. Personally, in the words of Keegan, I would just luv it if Wycombe and Shrewsbury were dragged down - both horrible, cheating style teams!
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Post by socrates on Mar 13, 2019 23:34:49 GMT
In the past it is usually teams with the worst goal difference that go down, but not always. Our goal difference suggests we could land up mid table but we do have some difficult games coming up. I studied the form, fixtures remaining of other teams and reckon we need about 52 points to avoid the drop, our superior goal difference is worth a point. I think we will land up with about 53/54 points so it could still be close. Oxford , Shrewsbury and Walsall are the teams most likely to go down with the bottom three at the moment. 3 wins 2 draws and 5 defeats will give us 54 points and I think we can do that. I’m Still worried though.
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Post by Antonio Fargas on Mar 13, 2019 23:40:58 GMT
I think we won't need as many points as a lot of people are saying. 50 feels about right to me, maybe less.
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Post by socrates on Mar 13, 2019 23:45:25 GMT
I think we won't need as many points as a lot of people are saying. 50 feels about right to me, maybe less. You could be right but I’m targeting the number that nobody’s ever been relegated with to be on the safe side 😉. If we can’t pick up another three wins and also scrape a couple of draws from our last ten I’d be surprised. Cogs got us very hard to beat. Other than one tactical f**k up v Wycombe we’ve only lost to Sunderland.
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Post by peterhooper57 on Mar 14, 2019 4:26:26 GMT
I would have thought we need 52/53 points to stay up, and providing CJH stays fit and available to play,then hopefully we will be fine. Utg
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Post by Qatar Gas on Mar 14, 2019 7:11:24 GMT
I think we won't need as many points as a lot of people are saying. 50 feels about right to me, maybe less. You could be right but I’m targeting the number that nobody’s ever been relegated with to be on the safe side 😉. If we can’t pick up another three wins and also scrape a couple of draws from our last ten I’d be surprised. Cogs got us very hard to beat. Other than one tactical f**k up v Wycombe we’ve only lost to Sunderland. Whats the highest points total anyone has been relegated with in this league? I understand in the last ten seasons its been no more than 51. However, with the amount of teams who can still go down it could end up being higher this year. As you mentioned, I agree that 54 should be enough and should be our minimum target.
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