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Post by gulfofaden on Nov 3, 2022 15:11:54 GMT
It’s not that they can’t be trusted, it’s that they don’t understand it. As you clearly don’t. You’re also can’t have a conversation on politics without getting obnoxious and antagonistic. Seek to understand, then to be understood. The way you approach these discussions is extremely childish, and that goes for most of the others on here. Bullies, essentially. Which is one of the reasons you shouldn’t ever be allowed to run things, you have all the answers for questions you don’t understand. Oh do f**k off you pompous twat 🙄 Ladies and gentleman, the greatest economic and political mind of his generation. |
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Post by peterparker on Nov 3, 2022 15:20:31 GMT
We are going to have the longest recession for decades. Solution, increase interest rates and make it worse All things being equal, due to how inflation is measured inflation will likely be significantly lower come March next year, so Interest rates as a tool to 'help' are doing what exactly by extracting more money out of people's pockets.... Not against the interest rise returning to a more normal level, but should have happened slower over time when we had a period of growth (fix the roof when the sun shines) etc. the fact that growth has been low/stagnant for ages.... How could we create growth. A radical idea, but public sector improvements..... That’s not how monetary policy works unfortunately! They aren’t going to return to a “normal” level as there is no such thing as a normal interest rate. Interest rates are going up to dampen inflation. Most of which is caused by the war in Ukraine and the covid CB balance sheet expansion. that doesn't make monetary policy correct though when I said normal, I did mean 'normal' in so much as having an interest rate of some significance be it 2% or 5% as opposed to basically not having one at all 0.25%. I know why the interest rate is going up, but that doesn't mean 1) it's the correct thing to do or 2) will make any difference at all given where the inflationary pressures are coming from when the bank champion how their rate rises have 'brought down inflation' As I say due to how inflation is calculated, it is almost guaranteed to go down next year. regardless of the interest rate. Prices aren't going to go down obviously but the increases will have settled in as the production/supply costs will be factored in (unless you think prices will keep rising) therefore sucking more money out of the economy is only going to make any recession worse |
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Post by oldie on Nov 3, 2022 15:22:18 GMT
We are going to have the longest recession for decades. Solution, increase interest rates and make it worse All things being equal, due to how inflation is measured inflation will likely be significantly lower come March next year, so Interest rates as a tool to 'help' are doing what exactly by extracting more money out of people's pockets.... Not against the interest rise returning to a more normal level, but should have happened slower over time when we had a period of growth (fix the roof when the sun shines) etc. the fact that growth has been low/stagnant for ages.... How could we create growth. A radical idea, but public sector improvements..... That’s not how monetary policy works unfortunately! They aren’t going to return to a “normal” level as there is no such thing as a normal interest rate. Interest rates are going up to dampen inflation. Most of which is caused by the war in Ukraine and the covid CB balance sheet expansion. Which, is a blunt instrument. Raising central bank interest rates will have zero impact on input costs caused by the worldwide energy issue. I suspect the raising of the rate was more to do with protecting the value of the £ on the markets after the Fed raised the rate in the States. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Nov 3, 2022 15:24:51 GMT
That’s not how monetary policy works unfortunately! They aren’t going to return to a “normal” level as there is no such thing as a normal interest rate. Interest rates are going up to dampen inflation. Most of which is caused by the war in Ukraine and the covid CB balance sheet expansion. that doesn't make monetary policy correct though when I said normal, I did mean 'normal' in so much as having an interest rate of some significance be it 2% or 5% as opposed to basically not having one at all 0.25%. I know why the interest rate is going up, but that doesn't mean 1) it's the correct thing to do or 2) will make any difference at all given where the inflationary pressures are coming from As I say due to how inflation is calculated, it is almost guaranteed to go down next year. prices aren't going to go down obviously but the increases will have settled in as the production/supply costs will be factored in (unless you think prices will keep rising) therefore sucking more money out of the economy is only going to make any recession worse The BofE are expecting inflation to be 5% by this time next year and 1.4% a year after. Costs will still be going up but not as fast. |
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Post by gasandelectricity on Nov 3, 2022 15:24:57 GMT
We are going to have the longest recession for decades. Solution, increase interest rates and make it worse All things being equal, due to how inflation is measured inflation will likely be significantly lower come March next year, so Interest rates as a tool to 'help' are doing what exactly by extracting more money out of people's pockets.... Not against the interest rise returning to a more normal level, but should have happened slower over time when we had a period of growth (fix the roof when the sun shines) etc. the fact that growth has been low/stagnant for ages.... How could we create growth. A radical idea, but public sector improvements..... That’s not how monetary policy works unfortunately! They aren’t going to return to a “normal” level as there is no such thing as a normal interest rate. Interest rates are going up to dampen inflation. Most of which is caused by the war in Ukraine and the covid CB balance sheet expansion. Agree but PP has a point though. This is cost pull inflation not demand push inflation driven by increases in the cost of life essentials such as food and fuel. Monetary policy won’t make the blindest bit of difference other than to make the cost of living problem even worse. That said our hand is being turned by what the Fed does and I’d rather they jumped it up now and got it over and done with than creep it up and prolong the situation. |
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Post by yattongas on Nov 3, 2022 15:25:59 GMT
Oh do f**k off you pompous twat 🙄 Ladies and gentleman, the greatest economic and political mind of his generation. I’m good at judging people though . |
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Post by oldie on Nov 3, 2022 15:26:14 GMT
That’s not how monetary policy works unfortunately! They aren’t going to return to a “normal” level as there is no such thing as a normal interest rate. Interest rates are going up to dampen inflation. Most of which is caused by the war in Ukraine and the covid CB balance sheet expansion. Agree but PP has a point though. This is cost pull inflation not demand push inflation driven by increases in the cost of life essentials such as food and fuel. Monetary policy won’t make the blindest bit of difference other than to make the cost of living problem even worse. That said our hand is being turned by what the Fed does and I’d rather they jumped it up now and got it over and done with than creep it up and prolong the situation. Up to the last sentence, exactly. |
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Post by yattongas on Nov 3, 2022 15:33:08 GMT
Who remembers this absolute clown 🤡? 😂👍
gulfofaden Avatar
Oct 25, 2021 7:43:45 GMT gulfofaden said:
Wages rising for the poorest.
Growth predicted to be faster than eurozone to 2025.
There never was an argument in economic terms to stay. Paying to be a member of a club with which we have a large trade deficit makes no sense. Demand in an open market economy leaks to import market but is offset by exports. If it’s negative in terms of net demand, then it’s not a beneficial relationship. Most EU imports are substitutable. We can quite happily buy Jags instead of beamers. The city of London isn’t substitutable, it’s 2nd in terms of global competitiveness compared to Europe’s best shot which is Frankfurt at 17th and Amsterdam at 23rd. The idea that an Asian businessman, who speaks English, studied at Oxford and knows English contract law is going to delist in London and learn French law is laughable.
There’s a hell of a lot of anecdotal evidence on this thread, but if any of you have an economics degree and a 20 year career in asset management (most of which is discussing macro economics) then I’m all ears, but I’d prefer not to hear about blue passports and “hating foreigners”. Few brexit advocates hate foreigners, but they can see what a mobile European workforce has done to wages in this country.
If you’re a business owner which wants cheap labour, then you will naturally be against, and they are the people who spoon feed you the sound bites. If your heart is with the working public (and bizzarely given my background, it is) then you will see things such as staff shortages as a good thing, as, within reason, these are the things which help the lot of the common person.
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Post by fintanstack on Nov 3, 2022 15:44:20 GMT
You chastise those ("most") who debate in a childish way here then follow up with name calling? I guess this is a reflection of modern politics where debate and common ground are seldom sought or found. That’s not name calling. There is inherent meaning in those words. There is inherent meaning in all words. |
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Post by gulfofaden on Nov 3, 2022 15:54:47 GMT
Who remembers this absolute clown 🤡? 😂👍 gulfofaden Avatar Oct 25, 2021 7:43:45 GMT gulfofaden said: Wages rising for the poorest. Growth predicted to be faster than eurozone to 2025. There never was an argument in economic terms to stay. Paying to be a member of a club with which we have a large trade deficit makes no sense. Demand in an open market economy leaks to import market but is offset by exports. If it’s negative in terms of net demand, then it’s not a beneficial relationship. Most EU imports are substitutable. We can quite happily buy Jags instead of beamers. The city of London isn’t substitutable, it’s 2nd in terms of global competitiveness compared to Europe’s best shot which is Frankfurt at 17th and Amsterdam at 23rd. The idea that an Asian businessman, who speaks English, studied at Oxford and knows English contract law is going to delist in London and learn French law is laughable. There’s a hell of a lot of anecdotal evidence on this thread, but if any of you have an economics degree and a 20 year career in asset management (most of which is discussing macro economics) then I’m all ears, but I’d prefer not to hear about blue passports and “hating foreigners”. Few brexit advocates hate foreigners, but they can see what a mobile European workforce has done to wages in this country. If you’re a business owner which wants cheap labour, then you will naturally be against, and they are the people who spoon feed you the sound bites. If your heart is with the working public (and bizzarely given my background, it is) then you will see things such as staff shortages as a good thing, as, within reason, these are the things which help the lot of the common person. Would you like me to explain it in terms you can understand? |
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Post by gulfofaden on Nov 3, 2022 15:56:30 GMT
That’s not name calling. There is inherent meaning in those words. There is inherent meaning in all words. You didn’t understand? Or splitting hairs? If it’s the former, I’ll revise to “there’s an inherent contextual meaning to those words” Do you now understand? |
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Post by yattongas on Nov 3, 2022 15:59:40 GMT
So bloody arrogant and up his own arse but totally without the self awareness to realise 😂
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Post by yattongas on Nov 3, 2022 16:06:37 GMT
That’s not how monetary policy works unfortunately! They aren’t going to return to a “normal” level as there is no such thing as a normal interest rate. Interest rates are going up to dampen inflation. Most of which is caused by the war in Ukraine and the covid CB balance sheet expansion. Which, is a blunt instrument. Raising central bank interest rates will have zero impact on input costs caused by the worldwide energy issue. I suspect the raising of the rate was more to do with protecting the value of the £ on the markets after the Fed raised the rate in the States. It’s not helping today ……back to £1 = $1.12 |
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Post by oldie on Nov 3, 2022 16:08:45 GMT
So bloody arrogant and up his own arse but totally without the self awareness to realise 😂 Whatever the impression he gives, personally I would like to hear his arguments. Then we can refute them with evidence and facts. |
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Post by oldie on Nov 3, 2022 16:12:48 GMT
Which, is a blunt instrument. Raising central bank interest rates will have zero impact on input costs caused by the worldwide energy issue. I suspect the raising of the rate was more to do with protecting the value of the £ on the markets after the Fed raised the rate in the States. It’s not helping today ……back to £1 = $1.12 Indeed. But judge it over the longer term. However if the markets believe, as I do, that this rise will excaserbate a deep recession, then this will be reflected in demand for sterling and the value of our bond sales. |
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Post by yattongas on Nov 3, 2022 16:46:47 GMT
So bloody arrogant and up his own arse but totally without the self awareness to realise 😂 Whatever the impression he gives, personally I would like to hear his arguments. Then we can refute them with evidence and facts. If you want to hear him trying to lecture everyone despite being proven categorically WRONG on Brexit ….. carry on. |
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Post by fintanstack on Nov 3, 2022 16:59:18 GMT
There is inherent meaning in all words. You didn’t understand? Or splitting hairs? If it’s the former, I’ll revise to “there’s an inherent contextual meaning to those words” Do you now understand? I understand that you think it is OK for you to name call others for name calling. |
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Post by trevorgas on Nov 3, 2022 17:10:02 GMT
It’s not helping today ……back to £1 = $1.12 Indeed. But judge it over the longer term. However if the markets believe, as I do, that this rise will excaserbate a deep recession, then this will be reflected in demand for sterling and the value of our bond sales. The idiot that is the current BoE governor scuppered any chance of Sterling moving up by his comments making clear that the base rate ceiling would be 5.25% when the market had priced in 6%,he is not fit for purpose. |
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Post by gulfofaden on Nov 3, 2022 17:12:41 GMT
You didn’t understand? Or splitting hairs? If it’s the former, I’ll revise to “there’s an inherent contextual meaning to those words” Do you now understand? I understand that you think it is OK for you to name call others for name calling. Calling someone a liar isn’t name calling. Calling someone a “Tory tw*t” is name calling. Big difference. |
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Post by oldie on Nov 3, 2022 17:15:48 GMT
Indeed. But judge it over the longer term. However if the markets believe, as I do, that this rise will excaserbate a deep recession, then this will be reflected in demand for sterling and the value of our bond sales. The idiot that is the current BoE governor scuppered any chance of Sterling moving up by his comments making clear that the base rate ceiling would be 5.25% when the market had priced in 6%,he is not fit for purpose. A very good point. |
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