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Post by bluestickgas1 on Jul 23, 2023 12:02:38 GMT
Seasonal stats shown on the link below, if you click on the "Save %" table you can sort it into highest lowest %, Balshaw is in the bottom 10, James Trafford, along with Matt Macey, are in the top 3 which suggests the better goalies have the better %. Interesingly Jamel Blackman is below Balshaw but Conner Ripley, who Rovers apparently were interested in signing, finished 12th, which suggests JB was (is?) trying to sign a better goalie. fbref.com/en/comps/15/keepers/League-One-Stats If you toggle the stats to show the "non-qualifiers" it shows Balcombe 14th in the table, so he was clearly a better shot stopper if not overall better goalie. Save Percentage is a simple metric that looks at Saves divided by Shots Faced. Belshaw ranks one of the worst at 20th on FotMob with 63.3% save percentage. Prevented Goals/90 is a metric that looks at the total expected goals conceded and subtracts the actual goals conceded on an average per 90 minutes of play. Belshaw's is is easily one of the worst in 20th with (minus!) -10.01. For comparison, Connor Ripley made the most Saves per 90 and had a Goals Prevented of 7.5. It doesn't matter what data you look at it paints a poor picture, but then that is what a lot of our eyes also told us watching his erratic performances. View AttachmentThing is Pirate I agree that Belshaw wasn’t as good last season compared to his performances the season before but he’s nowhere near as bad as being made out… My argument is that unless you make weighted adjustments to compensate for the fact that if you’re in goal and facing a higher volume of shots then the probability of not saving and conceding is much higher. It’s like when watching a game and you are completely under the cosh then the likelihood of you not conceding is much lower and as a keeper you are more exposed meaning you are worked harder and percentages of concentration lapses, mental tiredness, physical tiredness etc goes up… it’s not just solely down to the keeper. Likewise unless you are comparing the exact same number of games against the same opponents and teams then again it’s not a like for like comparison as the more games you play the higher likelihood of conceding etc - especially with a poor defence in front of you and the same team can have a stronger or weaker line up that you are facing based upon availability, form and transfers etc etc so again (exaggerated but you’ll get my drift - one keeper could be facing Messi whereas the other Loft) Unless you are comparing the keepers playing the same number of games in same conditions (as that also effects things), with exactly same teams or at least adjustments are made to compensate then the stats are not completely comparable or a true reflection |
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Post by wallywalters on Jul 23, 2023 12:03:32 GMT
Seasonal stats shown on the link below, if you click on the "Save %" table you can sort it into highest lowest %, Balshaw is in the bottom 10, James Trafford, along with Matt Macey, are in the top 3 which suggests the better goalies have the better %. Interesingly Jamel Blackman is below Balshaw but Conner Ripley, who Rovers apparently were interested in signing, finished 12th, which suggests JB was (is?) trying to sign a better goalie. fbref.com/en/comps/15/keepers/League-One-Stats If you toggle the stats to show the "non-qualifiers" it shows Balcombe 14th in the table, so he was clearly a better shot stopper if not overall better goalie. Save Percentage is a simple metric that looks at Saves divided by Shots Faced. Belshaw ranks one of the worst at 20th on FotMob with 63.3% save percentage. Prevented Goals/90 is a metric that looks at the total expected goals conceded and subtracts the actual goals conceded on an average per 90 minutes of play. Belshaw's is is easily one of the worst in 20th with (minus!) -10.01. For comparison, Connor Ripley made the most Saves per 90 and had a Goals Prevented of 7.5. It doesn't matter what data you look at it paints a poor picture, but then that is what a lot of our eyes also told us watching his erratic performances. View AttachmentIt confirms what a lot of people saw last season. I'm not sure what percentage of the goals he let in were from outside the box but it felt like he conceded a lot of long range efforts to me, more than a goalkeeper should concede. That seems to be his weakness wether it's his positioning or the fact he isn't the tallest of keepers I'm not sure. He is good at instinctive close range saves. |
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pirate
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Posts: 19,470 
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Post by pirate on Jul 23, 2023 12:21:54 GMT
Save Percentage is a simple metric that looks at Saves divided by Shots Faced. Belshaw ranks one of the worst at 20th on FotMob with 63.3% save percentage. Prevented Goals/90 is a metric that looks at the total expected goals conceded and subtracts the actual goals conceded on an average per 90 minutes of play. Belshaw's is is easily one of the worst in 20th with (minus!) -10.01. For comparison, Connor Ripley made the most Saves per 90 and had a Goals Prevented of 7.5. It doesn't matter what data you look at it paints a poor picture, but then that is what a lot of our eyes also told us watching his erratic performances. View AttachmentThing is Pirate I agree that Belshaw wasn’t as good last season compared to his performances the season before but he’s nowhere near as bad as being made out… My argument is that unless you make weighted adjustments to compensate for the fact that if you’re in goal and facing a higher volume of shots then the probability of not saving and conceding is much higher. It’s like when watching a game and you are completely under the cosh then the likelihood of you not conceding is much lower and as a keeper you are more exposed meaning you are worked harder and percentages of concentration lapses, mental tiredness, physical tiredness etc goes up… it’s not just solely down to the keeper. Likewise unless you are comparing the exact same number of games against the same opponents and teams then again it’s not a like for like comparison as the more games you play the higher likelihood of conceding etc - especially with a poor defence in front of you and the same team can have a stronger or weaker line up that you are facing based upon availability, form and transfers etc etc so again (exaggerated but you’ll get my drift - one keeper could be facing Messi whereas the other Loft) Unless you are comparing the keepers playing the same number of games in same conditions (as that also effects things), with exactly same teams or at least adjustments are made to compensate then the stats are not completely comparable or a true reflection I agree with you to some extent, but all we have to go with is the data, metrics, algorithms etc available in the public domain and that combined with our own eye test clearly suggest (to me anyway) he isn't good enough for a team with ambitions to push for playoffs. |
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Post by gashead99 on Jul 23, 2023 12:54:06 GMT
Thing is Pirate I agree that Belshaw wasn’t as good last season compared to his performances the season before but he’s nowhere near as bad as being made out… My argument is that unless you make weighted adjustments to compensate for the fact that if you’re in goal and facing a higher volume of shots then the probability of not saving and conceding is much higher. It’s like when watching a game and you are completely under the cosh then the likelihood of you not conceding is much lower and as a keeper you are more exposed meaning you are worked harder and percentages of concentration lapses, mental tiredness, physical tiredness etc goes up… it’s not just solely down to the keeper. Likewise unless you are comparing the exact same number of games against the same opponents and teams then again it’s not a like for like comparison as the more games you play the higher likelihood of conceding etc - especially with a poor defence in front of you and the same team can have a stronger or weaker line up that you are facing based upon availability, form and transfers etc etc so again (exaggerated but you’ll get my drift - one keeper could be facing Messi whereas the other Loft) Unless you are comparing the keepers playing the same number of games in same conditions (as that also effects things), with exactly same teams or at least adjustments are made to compensate then the stats are not completely comparable or a true reflection I agree with you to some extent, but all we have to go with is the data, metrics, algorithms etc available in the public domain and that combined with our own eye test clearly suggest (to me anyway) he isn't good enough for a team with ambitions to push for playoffs. It's actually much simpler than that. Last season we generally played poorly as a team, the season before we generally played well. It wouldn't have made much difference who was in goal. |
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Post by bluestickgas1 on Jul 23, 2023 13:00:34 GMT
Thing is Pirate I agree that Belshaw wasn’t as good last season compared to his performances the season before but he’s nowhere near as bad as being made out… My argument is that unless you make weighted adjustments to compensate for the fact that if you’re in goal and facing a higher volume of shots then the probability of not saving and conceding is much higher. It’s like when watching a game and you are completely under the cosh then the likelihood of you not conceding is much lower and as a keeper you are more exposed meaning you are worked harder and percentages of concentration lapses, mental tiredness, physical tiredness etc goes up… it’s not just solely down to the keeper. Likewise unless you are comparing the exact same number of games against the same opponents and teams then again it’s not a like for like comparison as the more games you play the higher likelihood of conceding etc - especially with a poor defence in front of you and the same team can have a stronger or weaker line up that you are facing based upon availability, form and transfers etc etc so again (exaggerated but you’ll get my drift - one keeper could be facing Messi whereas the other Loft) Unless you are comparing the keepers playing the same number of games in same conditions (as that also effects things), with exactly same teams or at least adjustments are made to compensate then the stats are not completely comparable or a true reflection I agree with you to some extent, but all we have to go with is the data, metrics, algorithms etc available in the public domain and that combined with our own eye test clearly suggest (to me anyway) he isn't good enough for a team with ambitions to push for playoffs. And I respect your opinion…. My opinion is that in a team playing well and a solid defence in front of him then I think he will be good enough… I don’t think he’s the best keeper in the league but I also don’t think he’s the worst… I’d say for his all round game and capabilities then I’d have him upper quartile but I appreciate that that’s just my opinion too |
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Post by A Source (aka Angry Badger) on Jul 23, 2023 13:03:00 GMT
Save Percentage is a simple metric that looks at Saves divided by Shots Faced. Belshaw ranks one of the worst at 20th on FotMob with 63.3% save percentage. Prevented Goals/90 is a metric that looks at the total expected goals conceded and subtracts the actual goals conceded on an average per 90 minutes of play. Belshaw's is is easily one of the worst in 20th with (minus!) -10.01. For comparison, Connor Ripley made the most Saves per 90 and had a Goals Prevented of 7.5. It doesn't matter what data you look at it paints a poor picture, but then that is what a lot of our eyes also told us watching his erratic performances. View AttachmentIt confirms what a lot of people saw last season. I'm not sure what percentage of the goals he let in were from outside the box but it felt like he conceded a lot of long range efforts to me, more than a goalkeeper should concede. That seems to be his weakness wether it's his positioning or the fact he isn't the tallest of keepers I'm not sure. He is good at instinctive close range saves. My thoughts exactly. Seemed to get beaten too easily from distance. Granted top corner shots no goalie will save but seemed to struggle with those a bit closer. Feet position? Shots passed him by the time he dives, I don't know. Instinct shots within reach I think his reactions are quick |
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Post by Topper Gas on Jul 23, 2023 13:10:33 GMT
I agree with you to some extent, but all we have to go with is the data, metrics, algorithms etc available in the public domain and that combined with our own eye test clearly suggest (to me anyway) he isn't good enough for a team with ambitions to push for playoffs. And I respect your opinion…. My opinion is that in a team playing well and a solid defence in front of him then I think he will be good enough… I don’t think he’s the best keeper in the league but I also don’t think he’s the worst… I’d say for his all round game and capabilities then I’d have him upper quartile but I appreciate that that’s just my opinion too The stats don't support that view as Connor Ripley (now signed for PV) and Ellery Balcombe were far better shot stoppers and they are likely to be, at best, both be playing for mid table L1 sides next season. The stats seem to support what most of us saw last season, Belshaw is in the bottom 10 of L1 goalies. Looking at the play off teams last season we need a goalie at least in the top 10 if we really want to finish in the top 6. |
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Post by bluestickgas1 on Jul 23, 2023 13:16:27 GMT
And I respect your opinion…. My opinion is that in a team playing well and a solid defence in front of him then I think he will be good enough… I don’t think he’s the best keeper in the league but I also don’t think he’s the worst… I’d say for his all round game and capabilities then I’d have him upper quartile but I appreciate that that’s just my opinion too The stats don't support that view as Connor Ripley (now signed for PV) and Ellery Balcombe were far better shot stoppers and they are likely to be, at best, both be playing for mid table L1 sides next season. The stats seem to support what most of us saw last season, Belshaw is in the bottom 10 of L1 goalies. Looking at the play off teams last season we need a goalie at least in the top 10 if we really want to finish in the top 6. Topper read my comments and Pirates reply re the stats quoted - in my opinion we are not using a fair comparison on the stats but I appreciate that those are what’s in the public domain. I respect your opinion - and it is just that an opinion as it can’t be actually proven unless all aspects of the test were exactly 100% the same - but it is my opinion that he is good enough with the right defence etc in front of him which I think we will have this year.. |
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Post by Topper Gas on Jul 23, 2023 15:16:13 GMT
A defence won't improve Belshaw's stop shopping ability, as I've already highlighted most of the top 6 sides last season had a goalie in the top 10 save % table.
If a goalie can't stop shots how can he be good enough for a top 10 side?
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Post by bluestickgas1 on Jul 23, 2023 15:32:28 GMT
A defence won't improve Belshaw's stop shopping ability, as I've already highlighted most of the top 6 sides last season had a goalie in the top 10 save % table. If a goalie can't stop shots how can he be good enough for a top 10 side? Because a stronger and better defence stops a greater percentage of the shots happening in the first place?? And Belshaw is a great shot stopper? He’s been beaten by some long distance worldies and we notice it more as he was exposed more and therefore we conceded more? He has fantastic reaction saves - just look at the games last season and also some of the saves in the Braga game… It isn’t as black and white as you make out Topper in my opinion and I’ll hazard a guess that the better performing keepers stats wise last season had the better performing defence in front of them stats wise last season |
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Post by stapletongas on Jul 23, 2023 17:00:41 GMT
Defensively we were poor, can’t blame the keeper. Belly is competent and proven.
The change was in front of him.
You defend from the point where you lose the ball. Too often the players out on the pitch we’re not good enough getting it back.
It’s really that simple
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Post by Topper Gas on Jul 23, 2023 17:02:26 GMT
A defence won't improve Belshaw's stop shopping ability, as I've already highlighted most of the top 6 sides last season had a goalie in the top 10 save % table. If a goalie can't stop shots how can he be good enough for a top 10 side? He’s been beaten by some long distance worldies and we notice it more as he was exposed more and therefore we conceded more? He has fantastic reaction saves - just look at the games last season and also some of the saves in the Braga game… It isn’t as black and white as you make out Topper in my opinion and I’ll hazard a guess that the better performing keepers stats wise last season had the better performing defence in front of them stats wise last season The stats don't support that view, for shots to actually save Belshaw was mid table, % wise he's saving less than most L1 goalies, perhaps he's unlucky and he faced a higher % of worldies. James Trafford at Bolton faced 160 shots to Belshaw's 146 |
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Post by bluestickgas1 on Jul 23, 2023 19:00:14 GMT
Because a stronger and better defence stops a greater percentage of the shots happening in the first place?? And Belshaw is a great shot stopper? He’s been beaten by some long distance worldies and we notice it more as he was exposed more and therefore we conceded more? He has fantastic reaction saves - just look at the games last season and also some of the saves in the Braga game… It isn’t as black and white as you make out Topper in my opinion and I’ll hazard a guess that the better performing keepers stats wise last season had the better performing defence in front of them stats wise last season The stats don't support that view, for shots to actually save Belshaw was mid table, % wise he's saving less than most L1 goalies, perhaps he's unlucky and he faced a higher % of worldies. James Trafford at Bolton faced 160 shots to Belshaw's 146 But unless the shots were the same in the same conditions from the same opposition player then it’s not an exact and direct comparison… We’re not going to agree - you believe he’s not good enough, I believe he is and stats - unless exactly the same base data are just a set of figures to create a narrative that can be manipulated to any story you want… I fundamentally believe that defence is as much an influence on goals conceded and shots faced etc as the goalkeeper is… |
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Post by stapletongas on Jul 23, 2023 21:04:53 GMT
The stats don't support that view, for shots to actually save Belshaw was mid table, % wise he's saving less than most L1 goalies, perhaps he's unlucky and he faced a higher % of worldies. James Trafford at Bolton faced 160 shots to Belshaw's 146 But unless the shots were the same in the same conditions from the same opposition player then it’s not an exact and direct comparison… We’re not going to agree - you believe he’s not good enough, I believe he is and stats - unless exactly the same base data are just a set of figures to create a narrative that can be manipulated to any story you want… I fundamentally believe that defence is as much an influence on goals conceded and shots faced etc as the goalkeeper is… Stats can be twisted to support an argument any way you like. Statistically Topper just likes a good argument apparently. Fortunately the professionals don't appear to share any view that Belly is not good enough, I think their opinion counts for more than stats. |
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Post by albaron on Jul 23, 2023 22:23:45 GMT
But unless the shots were the same in the same conditions from the same opposition player then it’s not an exact and direct comparison… We’re not going to agree - you believe he’s not good enough, I believe he is and stats - unless exactly the same base data are just a set of figures to create a narrative that can be manipulated to any story you want… I fundamentally believe that defence is as much an influence on goals conceded and shots faced etc as the goalkeeper is… Stats can be twisted to support an argument any way you like. Statistically Topper just likes a good argument apparently. Fortunately the professionals don't appear to share any view that Belly is not good enough, I think their opinion counts for more than stats. Each to their own but I'm with Topper on this subject. I don't rely on stats-- Just simply on my eyesight and I concur from that, Belshaw is not good enough to be our first team goalie. I also think Loft is not good enough either. I suppose it all depends on what expectations you want for your club. Well I wish them to be in a play off position or better. |
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Post by bluestickgas1 on Jul 23, 2023 22:53:01 GMT
Stats can be twisted to support an argument any way you like. Statistically Topper just likes a good argument apparently. Fortunately the professionals don't appear to share any view that Belly is not good enough, I think their opinion counts for more than stats. Each to their own but I'm with Topper on this subject. I don't rely on stats-- Just simply on my eyesight and I concur from that, Belshaw is not good enough to be our first team goalie. I also think Loft is not good enough either. I suppose it all depends on what expectations you want for your club. Well I wish them to be in a play off position or better. I would hope for that too but with my eyesight across the whole time Belshaw has been with us then I think he is good enough to be 1st choice and is a decent League 1 keeper. He had a difficult season last year but that was with an inexperienced, unconfident and constantly changing defence in front of him ….. Loft I agree that he isn’t a starting forward for us - he is different and a strong ‘bullying’ forward used to rough up opposition defenders and if he could get his finishing boots on like he had early doors last season then there might be something about him but what he is is completely different to any of our other forward players so a real switch it up option.. |
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Post by stapletongas on Jul 24, 2023 7:45:18 GMT
Two seasons ago, no one complained about Belshaw and we had a good defence
last season, we had a poor defence that was a revolving door of personnel, now fans query Belshaw's competence.
So what's really wrong here?
I stand by the theory that the defence is all 11 players on the pitch. whenever and wherever you lose the ball anywhere on the pitch you are defending. Sometimes the fault leading to conceding a goal is much earlier in the passage of play than the ball reaching our final 3rd or our own box. Few seem to notice that in analysis and just blame a defender or keeper rather than the no 9 or no 10 for doing something stupid in the opposition half.
The keeper and defence are the easy scapegoats for fans who don't have a deeper football intelligence.
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Post by bluestickgas1 on Jul 24, 2023 7:55:31 GMT
Two seasons ago, no one complained about Belshaw and we had a good defence last season, we had a poor defence that was a revolving door of personnel, now fans query Belshaw's competence. So what's really wrong here? I stand by the theory that the defence is all 11 players on the pitch. whenever and wherever you lose the ball anywhere on the pitch you are defending. Sometimes the fault leading to conceding a goal is much earlier in the passage of play than the ball reaching our final 3rd or our own box. Few seem to notice that in analysis and just blame a defender or keeper rather than the no 9 or no 10 for doing something stupid in the opposition half. The keeper and defence are the easy scapegoats for fans who don't have a deeper football intelligence. Agree …. Football is a team game and win, lose, draw, score or concede it is down to the team as a whole…. |
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pirate
Forum Legend
Posts: 19,470
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Post by pirate on Jul 24, 2023 8:57:11 GMT
The stats don't support that view, for shots to actually save Belshaw was mid table, % wise he's saving less than most L1 goalies, perhaps he's unlucky and he faced a higher % of worldies. James Trafford at Bolton faced 160 shots to Belshaw's 146 But unless the shots were the same in the same conditions from the same opposition player then it’s not an exact and direct comparison… We’re not going to agree - you believe he’s not good enough, I believe he is and stats - unless exactly the same base data are just a set of figures to create a narrative that can be manipulated to any story you want… I fundamentally believe that defence is as much an influence on goals conceded and shots faced etc as the goalkeeper is… Along with our own eyesight, Prevented Goals per 90 is the best and fairest way to measure the performance of a GK that is available. It looks at the number of goals a goalkeeper directly prevents with his interventions, using the Expected Goals On Target (xGOT) metric. That measures the probability of a goalkeeper conceding a goal by combining the goal probability of the shot (xG) with the place in the goal where the ball would go in. The better the quality of the shot and the tighter the location to the corners, the higher the value in xGOT that a goalkeeper will have to avoid. While this metric can measure the quality with which a striker places his shots away from the goalkeeper, the most direct and valuable utility relates to goalkeepers, as to measure a goalkeeper’s performance against opponent’s shots it would be sufficient to look at the difference between goals conceded and expected goals on target to know how many goals a goalkeeper is preventing. Let's take Belshaw and Ripley as a comparison. On the face of it, both were in teams that conceded a lot of goals, with roughly the same number on average conceded per 90, with suspect defences, but what the data shows is Ripley actually prevented 7.5 goals compared with Belshaw's worrying (MINUS) -10.01. The 'Expected Goals' is a metric from 0 to 1. It is used to denote the likelihood of a particular shot ending up as a goal. |
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Post by stapletongas on Jul 26, 2023 6:59:57 GMT
Clean sheet last night then
Who’s fault was that then?
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