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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Apr 18, 2016 9:48:29 GMT
Poll -
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Post by curlywurly on Apr 18, 2016 9:50:45 GMT
I refuse to answer on the rounds that it might jinx us.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 9:51:24 GMT
I refuse to answer on the rounds that it might jinx us. That's why I put 6th!!!
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Post by BishopstonBRFC on Apr 18, 2016 9:56:15 GMT
I refuse to answer on the rounds that it might jinx us. Same. Just looking through the Facebook stuff lots of people think we're already there.
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Post by slam on Apr 18, 2016 10:02:15 GMT
I refuse to answer on the rounds that it might jinx us. That's why I put 6th!!! Ditto - But, I would have put 10th (I think that 10th is still a mathematical possibility???) - but for some reason you haven't put this as an option.
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Post by Hugo the Elder on Apr 18, 2016 10:06:07 GMT
No chance I will vote here!
Not that I believe in jinxes and such.
But just in case....
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Post by baggins on Apr 18, 2016 10:20:00 GMT
No chance I will vote here! Not that I believe in jinxes and such. But just in case.... Wasn't jinxes in Top Cat?
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Post by francegas on Apr 18, 2016 10:49:00 GMT
No chance I will vote here! Not that I believe in jinxes and such. But just in case.... Wasn't jinxes in Top Cat? I thought it was Pixie and Dixie and Mr Jinks.
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Post by baggins on Apr 18, 2016 10:51:51 GMT
Wasn't jinxes in Top Cat? I thought it was Pixie and Dixie and Mr Jinks. That could be it. I was thinking of choo choo.
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Post by grayraydon on Apr 18, 2016 10:52:17 GMT
I refuse to answer on the rounds that it might jinx us. Same. Just looking through the Facebook stuff lots of people think we're already there. Luckily, the manager doesn't think this way and wouldn't let the players either.
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Post by 2nd May 1990 on Apr 18, 2016 11:04:45 GMT
I refuse to answer on the rounds that it might jinx us. Same. Just looking through the Facebook stuff lots of people think we're already there. Don't they remember Mansfield?
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Post by slam on Apr 18, 2016 11:13:57 GMT
OK - Deep Breath, count to 10 (slowly) and......... relaxaaaaaaaaxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.
I have just had to sit down and give myself a stern talking to. Why am I letting our current position get to me. Why am I letting it stress me. Why am I letting it distract me to the point where I am looking in here every 5 seconds to pick up any snippet of new information.
What is the worst that could happen from our current position? I guess that it is that we dramatically lose every game for the remainder of the season and end up not even being in the play offs (Actually, probably the worst thing that could happen is that we lose the remainder of our games and still end up in the play-offs, and then lose the play off games - god, even now I am distracting myself and digressing).
Anyway, the point is that I could take either of those two worst case scenarios. At the beginning of the season I would have happily taken a high/mid-table finish and thought that we had over achieved.
But the truth is, we have massively over achieved. We have got a great squad that I have enjoyed watching play football throughout the season. We have new owners who appear to want everything that we, the supporters, want for the club, we appear to have a degree of financial stability, and we have the prospects of a new stadium. In short, we feel like a club heading in the right direction and it doesn't matter what the timescales are for that. It is a great time to be a Gashead.
So, in reality, I have no idea why this position should cause stress. I know that I can handle the worst case scenario that I have referred to above so why let the current situation cause pressure. I still won't vote in things like this poll though, and probably will still wear my lucky t-shirt to the next game - but that isn't stress, that is superstition - lol.
In the words of DC - "take it game by game and enjoy the moment". After all, we have waited long enough for times like these - Enjoy them.
I am sure that there is something else that I should be doing today - oh yes, WORK!!!!
UTG
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Post by curlywurly on Apr 18, 2016 11:29:31 GMT
For the statistically minded, take a look at the experimental361 blog site: experimental361.com/2016/04/17/updated-probabilities-17-apr-2016/Some really good graphics based on an underlying statistical probability method to address the OP's question. Having said that, you could argue with the underlying E-ratings & expected goals model, particularly as he has Accrington probably just edging us out of the top 3. Attachment DeletedTake a look at the scatter plots which reveal a lot about how a team has played.
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Post by slam on Apr 18, 2016 11:38:45 GMT
For the statistically minded, take a look at the experimental361 blog site: experimental361.com/2016/04/17/updated-probabilities-17-apr-2016/Some really good graphics based on an underlying statistical probability method to address the OP's question. Having said that, you could argue with the underlying E-ratings & expected goals model, particularly as he has Accrington probably just edging us out of the top 3. Take a look at the scatter plots which reveal a lot about how a team has played. Someone, possibly you, posted this chart a few weeks ago. Back then, I seem to remember that our statistical chances of reaching the automatics were 27%. We are now up to 50% so we have bucked those stats already - we are on the right track.
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Post by Antonio Fargas on Apr 18, 2016 12:04:18 GMT
Last week's:
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Post by Charlton Hayes Gas on Apr 18, 2016 12:08:28 GMT
I'm gone with 4th so if it doesn't happen when I cry myself to sleep it won't feel AS bad
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Post by blackthorngas on Apr 18, 2016 12:15:15 GMT
I thought it was Pixie and Dixie and Mr Jinks. That could be it. I was thinking of choo choo. No. Thats Thomas.
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Post by Topper Gas on Apr 18, 2016 12:21:06 GMT
For the statistically minded, take a look at the experimental361 blog site: experimental361.com/2016/04/17/updated-probabilities-17-apr-2016/Some really good graphics based on an underlying statistical probability method to address the OP's question. Having said that, you could argue with the underlying E-ratings & expected goals model, particularly as he has Accrington probably just edging us out of the top 3. Take a look at the scatter plots which reveal a lot about how a team has played. Someone, possibly you, posted this chart a few weeks ago. Back then, I seem to remember that our statistical chances of reaching the automatics were 27%. We are now up to 50% so we have bucked those stats already - we are on the right track. Thought the same myself, I guess this doesn't allow for the Oxford keeper falling over the ball and allowing Luton to a score or an Accrington defender somehow kicking the ball into his own face allowing Morecambe to score!! It really is now down to who can cope with mental pressure and getting those slices of luck.
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Post by curlywurly on Apr 18, 2016 13:27:48 GMT
For the statistically minded, take a look at the experimental361 blog site: experimental361.com/2016/04/17/updated-probabilities-17-apr-2016/Some really good graphics based on an underlying statistical probability method to address the OP's question. Having said that, you could argue with the underlying E-ratings & expected goals model, particularly as he has Accrington probably just edging us out of the top 3. Take a look at the scatter plots which reveal a lot about how a team has played. Someone, possibly you, posted this chart a few weeks ago. Back then, I seem to remember that our statistical chances of reaching the automatics were 27%. We are now up to 50% so we have bucked those stats already - we are on the right track. With so few games left there can be some pretty big swings in probability. If you read the Oxford forum, they are starting to seriously consider play-offs despite the relative reassurance that these probability stats give them.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 13:46:47 GMT
Whilst I find these things interesting, they emphasise that football isn't solely a statistic based game. If it was, everyone would be rich off the bookies etc. etc.
Morecambe had only picked up 4 points away from home in 2016 until Saturday for example, yet they weirdly got one away at Accy, who have one of the best home records in the league.
There'll be twists and turns, we have to keep a steady head and win some games which require the same sort of attitude as we had in the Conference. I have belief we'll do it, but it won't be easy.
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