|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 8:24:29 GMT
A little on the subs from Saturday:
Ozzy CM (15 Mins): 2 shots (1 on target) 1.1% Possession (13 touches) Pass success 78 % (7/9 Accuracy) 1 Interception
Hare RWB (45 mins): 3.3% Possession (40 touches) Pass success 56% (14/25 Accuracy) 2 Key Passes 3 Aerials Won 1 Tackle 1 Interception 1 Corner (100% Accuracy)
Tutonda LCB (8 Mins) 0.8% Possession (8 Touches) Pass success 67% (4/6 Accuracy) 1 Tackle
Daly CAM (8 Mins) 0.1% Possession (3 Touches) Pass Success 100% (1/1 Accuracy) 1 Shot (Blocked)
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 8:33:13 GMT
League survival forecast. I can't remember whose forecast it was but I stole it from another thread and ran some forecast vs actuals against it to try and see where we might end up points wise: Everyone will have their own thoughts on what teams will more likely result in a win/draw/loss but you get the idea here: View AttachmentDeffo squeeky bum time! Amber target is 46 points to ensure safety (can't recall but someone quoted from a website) Green target is 52 points to ensure safety (Think this came from Joey Barton) Stay-UTG Updated... no change... just one less game to get to the 46-52 point mark View AttachmentGames left = 11 Points needed to get to 52 = 18 Maximum points available = 33 What do we need: 6 wins in 11 5 wins and 3 draws 4 wins and 6 draws BRFC record under JB: Played 7 Won 2 Drawn 1 Lost 4 Updated... no change... just one less game to get to the 46-52 point mark Attachment DeletedIf we meet forecast from here on in we will get to 48 points. Only trouble is we are currently -5 against forecast (69% accuracy) so..... probably not gonna happen unless we start performance above not below forecast. If we continue at the rate of 69% of forecast we are likely to end on 44 points - which unless GD comes into play will result in relegation. Happy Monday Games left = 10 Points needed to get to 52 = 18 Maximum points available = 30 What do we need: 6 wins in 10 5 wins and 3 draws 4 wins and 6 draws BRFC record under JB: Played 8 Won 2 Drawn 1 Lost 5
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 8:43:17 GMT
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 9:04:32 GMT
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 9:09:25 GMT
What to expect from The Gas (Top5s) and who scored analysis of our style of play and strengths & weaknesses: Attachment DeletedUTG
|
|
|
Post by seanclevedongas on Mar 22, 2021 9:20:09 GMT
Updated... no change... just one less game to get to the 46-52 point mark View AttachmentGames left = 11 Points needed to get to 52 = 18 Maximum points available = 33 What do we need: 6 wins in 11 5 wins and 3 draws 4 wins and 6 draws BRFC record under JB: Played 7 Won 2 Drawn 1 Lost 4 Updated... no change... just one less game to get to the 46-52 point mark View AttachmentIf we meet forecast from here on in we will get to 48 points. Only trouble is we are currently -5 against forecast (69% accuracy) so..... probably not gonna happen unless we start performance above not below forecast. If we continue at the rate of 69% of forecast we are likely to end on 44 points - which unless GD comes into play will result in relegation. Happy Monday Games left = 10 Points needed to get to 52 = 18 Maximum points available = 30 What do we need: 6 wins in 10 5 wins and 3 draws 4 wins and 6 draws BRFC record under JB: Played 8 Won 2 Drawn 1 Lost 5 Really good work fella! Looking at the number of draws forecast. We have drawn 7 in 36 games so far so really cannot see us getting 5 from 10
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 9:32:00 GMT
Updated... no change... just one less game to get to the 46-52 point mark View AttachmentIf we meet forecast from here on in we will get to 48 points. Only trouble is we are currently -5 against forecast (69% accuracy) so..... probably not gonna happen unless we start performance above not below forecast. If we continue at the rate of 69% of forecast we are likely to end on 44 points - which unless GD comes into play will result in relegation. Happy Monday Games left = 10 Points needed to get to 52 = 18 Maximum points available = 30 What do we need: 6 wins in 10 5 wins and 3 draws 4 wins and 6 draws BRFC record under JB: Played 8 Won 2 Drawn 1 Lost 5 Really good work fella! Looking at the number of draws forecast. We have drawn 7 in 36 games so far so really cannot see us getting 5 from 10 Heartbreaking isn't it
|
|
|
Post by richard on Mar 22, 2021 12:17:31 GMT
Do you have any comparisons of XG (maybe for, against and net) between managers? The shots information is illuminating but I think XG but would further expand on this?
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 14:19:35 GMT
Do you have any comparisons of XG (maybe for, against and net) between managers? The shots information is illuminating but I think XG but would further expand on this? Well I didn't... but I really wanted to see it so made it happen lol Hopefully it makes sense UTG
|
|
|
Post by richard on Mar 22, 2021 14:31:39 GMT
Do you have any comparisons of XG (maybe for, against and net) between managers? The shots information is illuminating but I think XG but would further expand on this? Well I didn't... but I really wanted to see it so made it happen lol View AttachmentHopefully it makes sense UTG Thank you so much for putting that together, really appreciate it. Extremely illuminating but makes it all the more frustrating that we are not seeing the change in results to go with the change in performance metrics. Not exact numbers as I have had to take rough readings from the graphs but it looks like the xGD is something like the below... Garner -0.74 Tisdale -0.18 Widdrington -0.56 Barton +0.32
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 14:44:20 GMT
Well I didn't... but I really wanted to see it so made it happen lol View AttachmentHopefully it makes sense UTG Thank you so much for putting that together, really appreciate it. Extremely illuminating but makes it all the more frustrating that we are not seeing the change in results to go with the change in performance metrics. Not exact numbers as I have had to take rough readings from the graphs but it looks like the xGD is something like the below... Garner -0.74 Tisdale -0.18 Widdrington -0.56 Barton +0.32 I'll see if i can add that calc in
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 14:58:56 GMT
Well I didn't... but I really wanted to see it so made it happen lol View AttachmentHopefully it makes sense UTG Thank you so much for putting that together, really appreciate it. Extremely illuminating but makes it all the more frustrating that we are not seeing the change in results to go with the change in performance metrics. Not exact numbers as I have had to take rough readings from the graphs but it looks like the xGD is something like the below... Garner -0.74 Tisdale -0.18 Widdrington -0.56 Barton +0.32 Think I managed it pal as the numbers are bang on to yours: That will update when I update the main dataset so we can track these now too Thanks for your suggestion
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 15:52:20 GMT
Here is a bit about Swindon's last 8 games: UTG
|
|
|
Post by carlts2020 on Mar 22, 2021 15:55:02 GMT
Really interesting stats. How are the XG calculated?
It would be good to see actual goals for, actual goals against and points gained.
Garner and Tisdale seem to have low XG but garner had a lot higher points per game.
Is this because although there are less shots on target (assuming this is how calculated) the chances were better or more likely to lead to a goal?
Seems quality is better than quantity maybe?
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 16:00:13 GMT
Really interesting stats. How are the XG calculated? It would be good to see actual goals for, actual goals against and points gained. Garner and Tisdale seem to have low XG but garner had a lot higher points per game. Is this because although there are less shots on target (assuming this is how calculated) the chances were better or more likely to lead to a goal? Seems quality is better than quantity maybe? I'll get back to you on that one pal - little tweak to ma stats required. In terms of xG I pulled it all manually from: experimental361.com/category/divisions/league-1/had to scroll back a bit as you can imagine. In terms of what it is and how xG is calculated generally (beware this is more for beginners) I found this interesting: UTG
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 16:17:13 GMT
Really interesting stats. How are the XG calculated? It would be good to see actual goals for, actual goals against and points gained. Garner and Tisdale seem to have low XG but garner had a lot higher points per game. Is this because although there are less shots on target (assuming this is how calculated) the chances were better or more likely to lead to a goal? Seems quality is better than quantity maybe? Couldn't resist - had to produce something: Hopefully that covers most of what you wanted bud
|
|
|
Post by o2o2bo2ba on Mar 22, 2021 20:47:11 GMT
Excellent work, GI... Always like to have a peek at your publishings.
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 22, 2021 21:55:49 GMT
Excellent work, GI... Always like to have a peek at your publishings. Thanks bud, if you see anything that looks off please so shout as I fire them together quickly during my working day lol
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 23, 2021 8:39:43 GMT
Really interesting stats. How are the XG calculated? It would be good to see actual goals for, actual goals against and points gained. Garner and Tisdale seem to have low XG but garner had a lot higher points per game. Is this because although there are less shots on target (assuming this is how calculated) the chances were better or more likely to lead to a goal? Seems quality is better than quantity maybe? Couldn't resist - had to produce something: View AttachmentHopefully that covers most of what you wanted bud Just looking back over this table and no wonder PT was frustrated with our firepower... we should have scored 8+ more goals during his short spell with us. Barton too has not had it good with us failing to put the ball in 3+ more goals we shoulda had. But like he said this tide has to change surely
|
|
|
Post by goodnightirene1883 on Mar 23, 2021 9:11:02 GMT
Sorry if this is repeating the above... just feel like its just pulling the right information together in one place: UTG
|
|