stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 18, 2019 10:13:18 GMT
Sorry Nobby, don't agree with stockpiling because it doesn't fit your arguement? We are leaving so UK firms are stockpiling, it is the same with the US figures we debated the other week. Half of the £20bn is reinvested and in government terms it isn't going to solve much. Boris Johnson has already costed it in his tax pledge to higher wage earners. The £39bn is for many things including legally obliged payments, not paying will (a) be first thing on the agenda in the FTA discussions and (b) will lose influence and undermine the "good will" in others. I don't agree with the stockpiling theory as I explained above. Are EU countries also stockpiling? If so, why is this not reflected in their growth figures, which across the EU, are really poor. Companies have had three years to prepare. If they are still not ready then they only have themselves to blame! Look at the recent announcement by Lidl. They are opening loads of stores in the South East of England. They have obviously done their homework on their supply chain and are happy to proceed. Proper Planning & Preparation Prevent water Poor Performance, the seven 'P's. I don't think the 39 billion has ever been detailed. I understand the true figure should be around 6 billion for outstanding commitments. The 39 billion was part of the WA that has never been ratified. Everyone and his dog knows it was a massive negotiating mistake to agree to the 39 billion without tying it to an FTA. It was a figure plucked out of the air after the EU initially demanded a lot more. Stockpiling is preparing for Brexit, that is the point. As you have said before, we buy more from them so it affects our figures to a greater degree, added to the fact that we are the party leaving. In terms of the money, it is tied to the FTA, tbe actual figure is still to be decided so it does form part of the ongoing negotiations. As for refusing to pay and thus benefit as you previously posted, even Geoffrey Cox has a view that we are legally obliged. So I ask again, what are the net benefits.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2019 10:23:32 GMT
I don't agree with the stockpiling theory as I explained above. Are EU countries also stockpiling? If so, why is this not reflected in their growth figures, which across the EU, are really poor. Companies have had three years to prepare. If they are still not ready then they only have themselves to blame! Look at the recent announcement by Lidl. They are opening loads of stores in the South East of England. They have obviously done their homework on their supply chain and are happy to proceed. Proper Planning & Preparation Prevent water Poor Performance, the seven 'P's. I don't think the 39 billion has ever been detailed. I understand the true figure should be around 6 billion for outstanding commitments. The 39 billion was part of the WA that has never been ratified. Everyone and his dog knows it was a massive negotiating mistake to agree to the 39 billion without tying it to an FTA. It was a figure plucked out of the air after the EU initially demanded a lot more. Stockpiling is preparing for Brexit, that is the point. As you have said before, we buy more from them so it affects our figures to a greater degree, added to the fact that we are the party leaving. In terms of the money, it is tied to the FTA, tbe actual figure is still to be decided so it does form part of the ongoing negotiations. As for refusing to pay and thus benefit as you previously posted, even Geoffrey Cox has a view that we are legally obliged. So I ask again, what are the net benefits. How can we legally be obliged to pay for something that has never been agreed? Are there other areas of the WA that we are legally obliged to adhere to, even though it was never agreed? How is the 39 billion tied to an FTA, which to this point has not been discussed? How much did Canada pay towards their FTA? How much did Japan pay? I reckon between them they paid the sum total of nowt! As for stockpiling, seriously, who is stockpiling what?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2019 11:52:14 GMT
Stockpiling is preparing for Brexit, that is the point. As you have said before, we buy more from them so it affects our figures to a greater degree, added to the fact that we are the party leaving. In terms of the money, it is tied to the FTA, tbe actual figure is still to be decided so it does form part of the ongoing negotiations. As for refusing to pay and thus benefit as you previously posted, even Geoffrey Cox has a view that we are legally obliged. So I ask again, what are the net benefits. How can we legally be obliged to pay for something that has never been agreed? Are there other areas of the WA that we are legally obliged to adhere to, even though it was never agreed? How is the 39 billion tied to an FTA, which to this point has not been discussed? How much did Canada pay towards their FTA? How much did Japan pay? I reckon between them they paid the sum total of nowt! As for stockpiling, seriously, who is stockpiling what? Ask the executives in business that currently rely on imports. The Trump like view on Treaty obligations does the UK no credit. Whether we agree or not the UK entered into a Treaty which had some long term cost implications. If we just tear it up and say "eff off" why would anyone trust us in the future. Does anyone trust Trump? I dont think so. www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjXuOSS_PLiAhWT5OAKHZXNCBIQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fbusiness-47772782&psig=AOvVaw38T_SStIU1liuzcdj0yjUq&ust=1560945200509513
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2019 12:47:39 GMT
What Treaty is this you are talking about?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2019 13:24:46 GMT
Business investment is fine. Where do youget this idea that it has 'fallen off a cliff'. Growth is higher than any other EU country, including Germany. ERM - joining was supported by the CBI, IMF, Treasury, BoE etc etc. All the usual groups. They do keep getting the big decisions wrong eh? If, if, if......? Business investment is not fine, in historical terms and against peers it is low, albeit growing a bit. However there remains little investment as companies wait and much of the small growth is due to replacing plant and machinery. The economy grew a bit due to stockpiling, confirmed by the trade deficit in manufactured goods doubling prior to the first deadline in March. In terms of the ERM, that was supported by people like Normam Lamont and Nigel Lawson, two ardent Brexiteers. In fact much of the ERM issue stemed from shadowing the DM. I'll say it again, there is no economic benefit to Brexit and the democratic arguement is a myth. Here's a challenge for Nobby and Eric, prove me wrong. 😶 Once again Brexit is not solely about trade and the economy. I have listed reasons why I want to leave the EU before when asked but I don't think they were read and in any event Remainers are largely blinkered and not interested in counter views or arguments, and why would they when they clearly have no respect for democracy. in respect of proving you wrong on the economy how is that ever possible as you well know. The so called expert economists of this and other countries have a long history of making poor predictions (a bit like Michael Fish failing to predict a hurricane) so why would the likes of myself and the millions of other UK citizens be able to predict more accurately? Ive never denied there will be some short term economic difficulties post brexit and that has been made worse by failure to get a deal or committing to no deal a lot sooner. MP's and benefit funded professional protestors selfishly trying to sabotage our exit have created delays and more economic damage. I believe in the longer term we will thrive outside of the EU.
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Post by South Stand Ultra on Jun 18, 2019 13:42:51 GMT
Business investment is not fine, in historical terms and against peers it is low, albeit growing a bit. However there remains little investment as companies wait and much of the small growth is due to replacing plant and machinery. The economy grew a bit due to stockpiling, confirmed by the trade deficit in manufactured goods doubling prior to the first deadline in March. In terms of the ERM, that was supported by people like Normam Lamont and Nigel Lawson, two ardent Brexiteers. In fact much of the ERM issue stemed from shadowing the DM. I'll say it again, there is no economic benefit to Brexit and the democratic arguement is a myth. Here's a challenge for Nobby and Eric, prove me wrong. 😶 Once again Brexit is not solely about trade and the economy. I have listed reasons why I want to leave the EU before when asked but I don't think they were read and in any event Remainers are largely blinkered and not interested in counter views or arguments, and why would they when they clearly have no respect for democracy. in respect of proving you wrong on the economy how is that ever possible as you well know. The so called expert economists of this and other countries have a long history of making poor predictions (a bit like Michael Fish failing to predict a hurricane) so why would the likes of myself and the millions of other UK citizens be able to predict more accurately? Ive never denied there will be some short term economic difficulties post brexit and that has been made worse by failure to get a deal or committing to no deal a lot sooner. MP's and benefit funded professional protestors selfishly trying to sabotage our exit have created delays and more economic damage. I believe in the longer term we will thrive outside of the EU.
Top post Eric.
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 18, 2019 14:05:07 GMT
Business investment is not fine, in historical terms and against peers it is low, albeit growing a bit. However there remains little investment as companies wait and much of the small growth is due to replacing plant and machinery. The economy grew a bit due to stockpiling, confirmed by the trade deficit in manufactured goods doubling prior to the first deadline in March. In terms of the ERM, that was supported by people like Normam Lamont and Nigel Lawson, two ardent Brexiteers. In fact much of the ERM issue stemed from shadowing the DM. I'll say it again, there is no economic benefit to Brexit and the democratic arguement is a myth. Here's a challenge for Nobby and Eric, prove me wrong. 😶 Once again Brexit is not solely about trade and the economy. I have listed reasons why I want to leave the EU before when asked but I don't think they were read and in any event Remainers are largely blinkered and not interested in counter views or arguments, and why would they when they clearly have no respect for democracy. in respect of proving you wrong on the economy how is that ever possible as you well know. The so called expert economists of this and other countries have a long history of making poor predictions (a bit like Michael Fish failing to predict a hurricane) so why would the likes of myself and the millions of other UK citizens be able to predict more accurately? Ive never denied there will be some short term economic difficulties post brexit and that has been made worse by failure to get a deal or committing to no deal a lot sooner. MP's and benefit funded professional protestors selfishly trying to sabotage our exit have created delays and more economic damage. I believe in the longer term we will thrive outside of the EU. I did read them, Eric, but I didn't think they were clear other than you felt we were being told what to do, but without specifyibg anything. On that basis do you also want to leave tbe UN, NATO, FIFA, UEFA, IOC..... It is no different to many other supranational bodies harmonising rules to make cooperation easier. Regarding democracy, how is it democratic to elect a prime minister based on a few MPs and fewer than 160,000 people, most of whom are over 57? And I take issue with the accusation of lacking democracy and being blinkered, if you really knew me then you would know. As far as the economic issues go, I have read and listened widely. I am not wedded to the EU for idealistic reasons but I recognise a false promise when I see one and there is no mandate for no deal. What is your view on climate change?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2019 14:18:00 GMT
Once again Brexit is not solely about trade and the economy. I have listed reasons why I want to leave the EU before when asked but I don't think they were read and in any event Remainers are largely blinkered and not interested in counter views or arguments, and why would they when they clearly have no respect for democracy. in respect of proving you wrong on the economy how is that ever possible as you well know. The so called expert economists of this and other countries have a long history of making poor predictions (a bit like Michael Fish failing to predict a hurricane) so why would the likes of myself and the millions of other UK citizens be able to predict more accurately? Ive never denied there will be some short term economic difficulties post brexit and that has been made worse by failure to get a deal or committing to no deal a lot sooner. MP's and benefit funded professional protestors selfishly trying to sabotage our exit have created delays and more economic damage. I believe in the longer term we will thrive outside of the EU. I did read them, Eric, but I didn't think they were clear other than you felt we were being told what to do, but without specifyibg anything. On that basis do you also want to leave tbe UN, NATO, FIFA, UEFA, IOC..... It is no different to many other supranational bodies harmonising rules to make cooperation easier. Regarding democracy, how is it democratic to elect a prime minister based on a few MPs and fewer than 160,000 people, most of whom are over 57? And I take issue with the accusation of lacking democracy and being blinkered, if you really knew me then you would know. As far as the economic issues go, I have read and listened widely. I am not wedded to the EU for idealistic reasons but I recognise a false promise when I see one and there is no mandate for no deal. What is your view on climate change? Climate change - not sure of the relevance here but for what its worth I'm not convinced the climate is changing solely due to human activity but clearly things like plastic pollution has to be addressed and Sky have been great in raising the profile of this. I think too much is made of man made climate change and has become a political football. I don't really see how the UK making changes will solve any perceived problems when we are such a tiny nation - very arrogant of people expect us to be a leading light which others will follow. If the huge nations like China and India do little what impact is us being forced to put up a few wind turbines going to make?
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 18, 2019 14:25:16 GMT
I did read them, Eric, but I didn't think they were clear other than you felt we were being told what to do, but without specifyibg anything. On that basis do you also want to leave tbe UN, NATO, FIFA, UEFA, IOC..... It is no different to many other supranational bodies harmonising rules to make cooperation easier. Regarding democracy, how is it democratic to elect a prime minister based on a few MPs and fewer than 160,000 people, most of whom are over 57? And I take issue with the accusation of lacking democracy and being blinkered, if you really knew me then you would know. As far as the economic issues go, I have read and listened widely. I am not wedded to the EU for idealistic reasons but I recognise a false promise when I see one and there is no mandate for no deal. What is your view on climate change? Climate change - not sure of the relevance here but for what its worth I'm not convinced the climate is changing solely due to human activity but clearly things like plastic pollution has to be addressed and Sky have been great in raising the profile of this. I think too much is made of man made climate change and has become a political football. I don't really see how the UK making changes will solve any perceived problems when we are such a tiny nation - very arrogant of people expect us to be a leading light which others will follow. If the huge nations like China and India do little what impact is us being forced to put up a few wind turbines going to make? The relevance was that the vast majority of scientists believe that global warming/climate change is happening and at least exacerbated by human activity but a few disagree. The comparison is that the economic impact of Brexit will adversly affect us according to most economists.
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Post by Hugo the Elder on Jun 18, 2019 15:25:20 GMT
Stockpiling is preparing for Brexit, that is the point. As you have said before, we buy more from them so it affects our figures to a greater degree, added to the fact that we are the party leaving. In terms of the money, it is tied to the FTA, tbe actual figure is still to be decided so it does form part of the ongoing negotiations. As for refusing to pay and thus benefit as you previously posted, even Geoffrey Cox has a view that we are legally obliged. So I ask again, what are the net benefits. How can we legally be obliged to pay for something that has never been agreed? Are there other areas of the WA that we are legally obliged to adhere to, even though it was never agreed? How is the 39 billion tied to an FTA, which to this point has not been discussed? How much did Canada pay towards their FTA? How much did Japan pay? I reckon between them they paid the sum total of nowt! As for stockpiling, seriously, who is stockpiling what? I know for a fact the NHS is stockpiling certain medications that are manufactured in the EU.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2019 19:48:55 GMT
Climate change - not sure of the relevance here but for what its worth I'm not convinced the climate is changing solely due to human activity but clearly things like plastic pollution has to be addressed and Sky have been great in raising the profile of this. I think too much is made of man made climate change and has become a political football. I don't really see how the UK making changes will solve any perceived problems when we are such a tiny nation - very arrogant of people expect us to be a leading light which others will follow. If the huge nations like China and India do little what impact is us being forced to put up a few wind turbines going to make? The relevance was that the vast majority of scientists believe that global warming/climate change is happening and at least exacerbated by human activity but a few disagree. The comparison is that the economic impact of Brexit will adversly affect us according to most economists. I suspect the source of funding may play a large part in the number of scientists with that opinion. How many are paid to prove man made climate change as opposed to those paid to investigate the contrary viewpoint. Anyway not worth discussing further unless someone wants to create a thread.
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 18, 2019 20:13:15 GMT
The relevance was that the vast majority of scientists believe that global warming/climate change is happening and at least exacerbated by human activity but a few disagree. The comparison is that the economic impact of Brexit will adversly affect us according to most economists. I suspect the source of funding may play a large part in the number of scientists with that opinion. How many are paid to prove man made climate change as opposed to those paid to investigate the contrary viewpoint. Anyway not worth discussing further unless someone wants to create a thread. Separate thread I would agree, but I'm very saddened by that view.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2019 20:17:43 GMT
Tomorrow I will find the link to the original software used by the UN for their first Climate Change model, developed by the Uni of East Anglia. When you see the comments in the software (you do not need to understand the coding) you will wonder just why people believe the results of these models.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2019 20:38:36 GMT
I suspect the source of funding may play a large part in the number of scientists with that opinion. How many are paid to prove man made climate change as opposed to those paid to investigate the contrary viewpoint. Anyway not worth discussing further unless someone wants to create a thread. Separate thread I would agree, but I'm very saddened by that view. Two scientists apply for state funding. One wishes to pursue a theory that climate change is not man made and the other thinks he can add to the arguments that it is man made. Which one gets the grant? I imagine green groups and the like fund a lot of research but I don't expect anyone is funding the other side of the debate which makes me question what is reported. The climate is changing, as it's has over millions of years, but I just struggle to understand and trust how much contribution is man made. There was me hoping not to comment further - great will power lasted less than an hour!!!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2019 10:19:58 GMT
Climate Change, Chapter 1, Paragraph 1, for Eric skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-global-warming.htmA simple way to explain the basic laws of physics and Human kinds contribution the make up of the Earth's atmosphere we rely on. The last few posts on this thread have been the same old stuff regurgitated. I think it could be summarised in the following way 1. 2+2 = 4. Response. No it does not neccessarily, that's just a prediction. Mathematicions have got it wrong in the past. 2. The Earth is round and the polar ice sheets are melting due to the rise in atmospheric temperatures. CO2 is the key driver. Human production of CO2 has risen exponentially in the last 100 years. Response. I dont believe the earth is round, and humans have not produced that much CO2. I cannot tell you why I believe this to be true and any attempt to prove the it is true is just a left wing plot. 3. Businesses report large scale stockpiling due to Brexit uncertainty. Response. I dont believe it despite wholly independent businesses reporting it to be true. 4. Tariffs on exports will severely damage our export business under WTO. Response. No they wont, we will just apply a zero rate with the whole world. Reply. But that will destroy our home agricultural sector, and damage our manufacturing base. Response. So what it will mean cheap beef from Argentina. 5. Leaving the EU with no deal will immediately negate the 87 trade treaties we are party to and benefit from. Response. Where are these trade treaties and who with? Bongo Bongo Land? 6. The EU has not imposed laws upon us which have adversely affected our lives or not agreed by our own Sovereign Parliament. Response. Yes they have. Reply. Name one. Response. No. I think that sums up where we are.
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 19, 2019 10:38:27 GMT
No Oldie, please don't start, I have a hospital appointment to attend later and I can't be checking my phone!! After yesterday's depressing comments I was hoping for peace and quiet. 😀
Don't forget that the £ didn't fall that much, austerity is a myth, the German car manufacturers will come to our aid, the EU will be divided and buckle, we hold all the cards, the NHS is great/awful, just believe in Unicorns....
At least no one is relying in Article XXIV of GATT....except our next PM.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2019 10:44:12 GMT
Yes Oldie, this is getting depressing...
"4. Tariffs on exports will severely damage our export business under WTO.
Response. No they wont, we will just apply a zero rate with the whole world.
Reply. But that will destroy our home agricultural sector, and damage our manufacturing base.
Response. So what it will mean cheap beef from Argentina."
Please explain how the UK will be able to set zero tariff's on our exports?
I can't be arsed to read through the rest of your turgid nonsense.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2019 11:26:01 GMT
Yes Oldie, this is getting depressing... "4. Tariffs on exports will severely damage our export business under WTO. Response. No they wont, we will just apply a zero rate with the whole world. Reply. But that will destroy our home agricultural sector, and damage our manufacturing base. Response. So what it will mean cheap beef from Argentina." Please explain how the UK will be able to set zero tariff's on our exports?I can't be arsed to read through the rest of your turgid nonsense. Now now
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2019 11:36:27 GMT
No Oldie, please don't start, I have a hospital appointment to attend later and I can't be checking my phone!! After yesterday's depressing comments I was hoping for peace and quiet. 😀 Don't forget that the £ didn't fall that much, austerity is a myth, the German car manufacturers will come to our aid, the EU will be divided and buckle, we hold all the cards, the NHS is great/awful, just believe in Unicorns.... At least no one is relying in Article XXIV of GATT....except our next PM. I know Stuart. Just trying to inject a bit of sarcastic humour into it. You are right though, it is depressing. And now, just to add salt into the wound, we are going to get the genius that is Boris Johnson as PM Allegedly his chosen cabinet will be as follows. Defence...Mark Francois Health & Social Care...Jacob Rees-Mogg Education....Bill Cash Home Secretary...Steve Baker International Development...John Redwood Work & Pensions...Bernard Jenkin. Everybody else refused...allegedly.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2019 12:10:13 GMT
Yes Oldie, this is getting depressing... "4. Tariffs on exports will severely damage our export business under WTO. Response. No they wont, we will just apply a zero rate with the whole world. Reply. But that will destroy our home agricultural sector, and damage our manufacturing base. Response. So what it will mean cheap beef from Argentina." Please explain how the UK will be able to set zero tariff's on our exports?I can't be arsed to read through the rest of your turgid nonsense. Now now Well, they are your words!
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