|
Post by WeAreTheGas on Oct 28, 2020 14:58:42 GMT
What I am concerned about so far this season is with our lack of goals from open passage of play (and not from penalties, resulting from free kicks or opposition defensive errors). That to me, it where we are extremely lacking. That's not a criticism just an observation. Before last night (don’t know stats post-Tuesday’s fixtures yet), only Shrewsbury, Wigan & Burton had created fewer good chances than us in open play in L1.
|
|
|
Post by Jomo on Oct 28, 2020 15:16:13 GMT
What I am concerned about so far this season is with our lack of goals from open passage of play (and not from penalties, resulting from free kicks or opposition defensive errors). That to me, it where we are extremely lacking. That's not a criticism just an observation. Before last night (don’t know stats post-Tuesday’s fixtures yet), only Shrewsbury, Wigan & Burton had created fewer good chances than us in open play in L1. According to this website (I have no idea if its trustworthy) then slightly worryingly, we have the lowest expected goals in the league, and the 3rd-worst expected goals against. The guys on the Not the Top 20 podcast would almost certainly come to the conclusion these stats are unsustainable, and that we're destined to plummet if we don't improve our chance creation and prevention at the other end.
|
|
pirate
Forum Legend
Posts: 19,006
|
Post by pirate on Oct 28, 2020 15:52:18 GMT
Before last night (don’t know stats post-Tuesday’s fixtures yet), only Shrewsbury, Wigan & Burton had created fewer good chances than us in open play in L1. According to this website (I have no idea if its trustworthy) then slightly worryingly, we have the lowest expected goals in the league, and the 3rd-worst expected goals against. The guys on the Not the Top 20 podcast would almost certainly come to the conclusion these stats are unsustainable, and that we're destined to plummet if we don't improve our chance creation and prevention at the other end.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2020 15:54:36 GMT
I know 2020 has been mad but surely the answer is earth?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2020 15:56:43 GMT
And number 2, yes as i want to get back in the saddle but youve got to understand the situation and respect the fact you have to wait a bit longer before getting your leg over again. Thankfully havent experienced a long period myself being male.
|
|
|
Post by Westy on Oct 28, 2020 16:23:41 GMT
And number 2, yes as i want to get back in the saddle but youve got to understand the situation and respect the fact you have to wait a bit longer before getting your leg over again. Thankfully havent experienced a long period myself being male. 😅
|
|
|
Post by socrates on Oct 28, 2020 17:00:21 GMT
I’m surprised nobody’s mentioned their bloke being unmarked on the back post with nobody within 10 yards of him for the second goal. There may have been a foul that wasn’t given in the build up but if you leave a forward with that much space 6 yards out then you can’t expect cone away with anything.
|
|
|
Post by socrates on Oct 28, 2020 17:01:13 GMT
What I am concerned about so far this season is with our lack of goals from open passage of play (and not from penalties, resulting from free kicks or opposition defensive errors). That to me, it where we are extremely lacking. That's not a criticism just an observation. I’m hoping that Otzumer is the man to create those chances and hopefully score double figures too.
|
|
pirate
Forum Legend
Posts: 19,006
|
Post by pirate on Oct 28, 2020 17:03:56 GMT
I’m surprised nobody’s mentioned their bloke being unmarked on the back post with nobody within 10 yards of him for the second goal. There may have been a foul that wasn’t given in the build up but if you leave a forward with that much space 6 yards out then you can’t expect cone away with anything. The marking on the first 2 goals was very poor.
|
|
|
Post by Topper Gas on Oct 28, 2020 18:13:47 GMT
I’m surprised nobody’s mentioned their bloke being unmarked on the back post with nobody within 10 yards of him for the second goal. There may have been a foul that wasn’t given in the build up but if you leave a forward with that much space 6 yards out then you can’t expect cone away with anything. Ehmer got caught in two minds, so left his opponent unmarked and didn't close down the runner meaning that Hare had to pick up Ehmer's man leaving the goal scorer unmarked, I don't no why Ehemr didn't just close down the runner as Baldwin was never going to catch him.
|
|
|
Post by wilmslowgas on Oct 28, 2020 18:55:24 GMT
We've played 4 of the recognised top teams (Sunderland, Ipswich, Doncaster & Hull) and achieved a grand total of one point.
Our win at Lincoln was a real surprise and anyway few expect them to be in the mix at the season's end.
Put bluntly, we are struggling to compete with the powerhouses of this Division. Our season will be defined by results against the weaker teams (eg Northampton, Shrewsbury, Burton). Another team we should look to accumulate points from is Rochdale this Saturday.
|
|
|
Post by WeAreTheGas on Oct 28, 2020 18:56:08 GMT
According to this website (I have no idea if its trustworthy) then slightly worryingly, we have the lowest expected goals in the league, and the 3rd-worst expected goals against. The guys on the Not the Top 20 podcast would almost certainly come to the conclusion these stats are unsustainable, and that we're destined to plummet if we don't improve our chance creation and prevention at the other end. The thing with our xG figure atm is that it’s very much enhanced by the 3 penalties we’ve had (adds 2.25 to it). Obviously you still have to score a penalty & they were all correctly awarded to us, but we aren’t going to go through the season getting 3 penalties in our favour every 8 games we play. We could quite easily go through the rest of the season without getting another one. If we can’t find a way to start creating more in open play then we’re going to see us start sliding down the table, IMO.
|
|
|
Post by ChiefStateGAS on Oct 28, 2020 19:26:26 GMT
We've lost to Ipswich, Doncaster, Hull - good teams, fair enough.
Drawn with Sunderland, Burton - good results imo.
Beaten top of the league Lincoln, Shrewsbury, Northampton - good results.
We beat Rochdale on Saturday and really there is not a lot to complain about. We're playing decent football for periods of games. Although his comments might be slightly exaggerated I don't think he's far off. We look to be a mid-table team this year but I think we'll finish top half and possibly close to 6th and tbh I'm happy with that all things considered. Play-offs in 2022 would prove good progress imo.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2020 19:36:27 GMT
Before last night (don’t know stats post-Tuesday’s fixtures yet), only Shrewsbury, Wigan & Burton had created fewer good chances than us in open play in L1. According to this website (I have no idea if its trustworthy) then slightly worryingly, we have the lowest expected goals in the league, and the 3rd-worst expected goals against. The guys on the Not the Top 20 podcast would almost certainly come to the conclusion these stats are unsustainable, and that we're destined to plummet if we don't improve our chance creation and prevention at the other end. This was what I clumsily alluding to with the penalty argument and everyone jumped on my back and had a bitch fit! That word is exactly it: unsustainable. Relying on penalties is unsustainable and points to a more fundamental issue that not enough chances are being created. Lo and behold a few games on and we have the lowest expected goal counts. On the one hand Hanlan and Daly have 3 each, that has to be one of the best returns for any strike pairing in the division right now. However the story behind those numbers is that two of Hanlan’s were penalties and two of Daly’s were where he picked the pocket of the defence. So in terms of actual goal scoring chances created by the team you’re looking at one each. It’s possible that could become exacerbated over time. It also means there is an abnormal amount of pressure on our players to score when they get the chance. Westbrooke last night had a hell of a miss, the sort of miss that should struggle to make the highlights but given how little else we created you have to come back to it and conclude that we really need to be taking chances like that. It’s going to be interesting going forward to see how our chance creation develops as we progress.
|
|
|
Post by Goose on Oct 28, 2020 20:36:59 GMT
According to this website (I have no idea if its trustworthy) then slightly worryingly, we have the lowest expected goals in the league, and the 3rd-worst expected goals against. The guys on the Not the Top 20 podcast would almost certainly come to the conclusion these stats are unsustainable, and that we're destined to plummet if we don't improve our chance creation and prevention at the other end. This was what I clumsily alluding to with the penalty argument and everyone jumped on my back and had a bitch fit! That word is exactly it: unsustainable. Relying on penalties is unsustainable and points to a more fundamental issue that not enough chances are being created. Lo and behold a few games on and we have the lowest expected goal counts. On the one hand Hanlan and Daly have 3 each, that has to be one of the best returns for any strike pairing in the division right now. However the story behind those numbers is that two of Hanlan’s were penalties and two of Daly’s were where he picked the pocket of the defence. So in terms of actual goal scoring chances created by the team you’re looking at one each. It’s possible that could become exacerbated over time. It also means there is an abnormal amount of pressure on our players to score when they get the chance. Westbrooke last night had a hell of a miss, the sort of miss that should struggle to make the highlights but given how little else we created you have to come back to it and conclude that we really need to be taking chances like that. It’s going to be interesting going forward to see how our chance creation develops as we progress. Completely agree with regards to making opportunities in open play, but you mention the pens and pocket picking, but these attributes are what makes a good striker. I'm sure the other teams have had; Deflected goals Lucky decisions Goal keeper error Etc UTG
|
|
|
Post by o2o2bo2ba on Oct 28, 2020 20:37:23 GMT
I’m surprised nobody’s mentioned their bloke being unmarked on the back post with nobody within 10 yards of him for the second goal. It's called social distancing...😋
|
|
|
Post by WeAreTheGas on Oct 28, 2020 20:43:19 GMT
According to this website (I have no idea if its trustworthy) then slightly worryingly, we have the lowest expected goals in the league, and the 3rd-worst expected goals against. The guys on the Not the Top 20 podcast would almost certainly come to the conclusion these stats are unsustainable, and that we're destined to plummet if we don't improve our chance creation and prevention at the other end. This was what I clumsily alluding to with the penalty argument and everyone jumped on my back and had a bitch fit! That word is exactly it: unsustainable. Relying on penalties is unsustainable and points to a more fundamental issue that not enough chances are being created. Lo and behold a few games on and we have the lowest expected goal counts. On the one hand Hanlan and Daly have 3 each, that has to be one of the best returns for any strike pairing in the division right now. However the story behind those numbers is that two of Hanlan’s were penalties and two of Daly’s were where he picked the pocket of the defence. So in terms of actual goal scoring chances created by the team you’re looking at one each. It’s possible that could become exacerbated over time. It also means there is an abnormal amount of pressure on our players to score when they get the chance. Westbrooke last night had a hell of a miss, the sort of miss that should struggle to make the highlights but given how little else we created you have to come back to it and conclude that we really need to be taking chances like that. It’s going to be interesting going forward to see how our chance creation develops as we progress. On the penalties theme, it’ll be interesting to see whether a team like Lincoln continues to run as hot as they are atm once they stop being awarded so many penalties - 6 in their 9 games so far! And 4 of those have come in matches that they’ve won by 1 goal, so they’ve made a huge difference to their current points total & league position. It’s probably fair to assume they won’t end the season being awarded a penalty in 66% of their league games, so you would think they’ll drop off a bit...
|
|
|
Post by socrates on Oct 28, 2020 20:46:46 GMT
According to this website (I have no idea if its trustworthy) then slightly worryingly, we have the lowest expected goals in the league, and the 3rd-worst expected goals against. The guys on the Not the Top 20 podcast would almost certainly come to the conclusion these stats are unsustainable, and that we're destined to plummet if we don't improve our chance creation and prevention at the other end. This was what I clumsily alluding to with the penalty argument and everyone jumped on my back and had a bitch fit! That word is exactly it: unsustainable. Relying on penalties is unsustainable and points to a more fundamental issue that not enough chances are being created. Lo and behold a few games on and we have the lowest expected goal counts. On the one hand Hanlan and Daly have 3 each, that has to be one of the best returns for any strike pairing in the division right now. However the story behind those numbers is that two of Hanlan’s were penalties and two of Daly’s were where he picked the pocket of the defence. So in terms of actual goal scoring chances created by the team you’re looking at one each. It’s possible that could become exacerbated over time. It also means there is an abnormal amount of pressure on our players to score when they get the chance. Westbrooke last night had a hell of a miss, the sort of miss that should struggle to make the highlights but given how little else we created you have to come back to it and conclude that we really need to be taking chances like that. It’s going to be interesting going forward to see how our chance creation develops as we progress. A striker closing down the defence through bloody hard work nicking the ball and then cooly placing the ball past the keeper does count as a goal just the same as Hanlans hard work taking on defenders beating them and then getting fouled getting up and scoring the penalties does count as goals. I think hanlan and Daley have formed a good partnership and have done very well so far but I do think we need to bring otzumer in to the side now to give them better service and also I’d like to see other players drive through a bit more and have a go from distance the way Mehew has with his two goals. I think we are lacking in decent service in the final third through the middle of the pitch but just as important I also think they’ll at we have a weakness through the middle of the pitch without the ball. We have otzumer but I’m not convinced we have the experienced midfield general who can help us control a game once we take the lead or go behind. Also Westbrooke hit it low towards the keepers feet slightly to one side a difficult shot to save through legs it wasn’t one hell of a miss it was a very good save.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2020 21:16:33 GMT
This was what I clumsily alluding to with the penalty argument and everyone jumped on my back and had a bitch fit! That word is exactly it: unsustainable. Relying on penalties is unsustainable and points to a more fundamental issue that not enough chances are being created. Lo and behold a few games on and we have the lowest expected goal counts. On the one hand Hanlan and Daly have 3 each, that has to be one of the best returns for any strike pairing in the division right now. However the story behind those numbers is that two of Hanlan’s were penalties and two of Daly’s were where he picked the pocket of the defence. So in terms of actual goal scoring chances created by the team you’re looking at one each. It’s possible that could become exacerbated over time. It also means there is an abnormal amount of pressure on our players to score when they get the chance. Westbrooke last night had a hell of a miss, the sort of miss that should struggle to make the highlights but given how little else we created you have to come back to it and conclude that we really need to be taking chances like that. It’s going to be interesting going forward to see how our chance creation develops as we progress. A striker closing down the defence through bloody hard work nicking the ball and then cooly placing the ball past the keeper does count as a goal just the same as Hanlans hard work taking on defenders beating them and then getting fouled getting up and scoring the penalties does count as goals. I think hanlan and Daley have formed a good partnership and have done very well so far but I do think we need to bring otzumer in to the side now to give them better service and also I’d like to see other players drive through a bit more and have a go from distance the way Mehew has with his two goals. I think we are lacking in decent service in the final third through the middle of the pitch but just as important I also think they’ll at we have a weakness through the middle of the pitch without the ball. We have otzumer but I’m not convinced we have the experienced midfield general who can help us control a game once we take the lead or go behind. Also Westbrooke hit it low towards the keepers feet slightly to one side a difficult shot to save through legs it wasn’t one hell of a miss it was a very good save. Kind of agree about Oztumer but will we see the 2014 version or a shadow? Obviously hope it’s the former but I do worry about the level of expectation which is mainly based on his brilliance a fair few years ago. I really want to see more of Nicholson but he’s probably vying with Daly for a spot alongside Hanlon as our formation doesn’t really suit his traditional winger style(?). Maybe it’s Nicholson breathing down his neck that’s firing Daly’s form. I also won’t rule out Barrett for the attacking midfield role when fit, would prefer our own ahead of loanees unless there is a massive gulf in quality. Nice to have so many options for a change and a nice headache for BG. UTG.
|
|
|
Post by socrates on Oct 28, 2020 21:23:04 GMT
A striker closing down the defence through bloody hard work nicking the ball and then cooly placing the ball past the keeper does count as a goal just the same as Hanlans hard work taking on defenders beating them and then getting fouled getting up and scoring the penalties does count as goals. I think hanlan and Daley have formed a good partnership and have done very well so far but I do think we need to bring otzumer in to the side now to give them better service and also I’d like to see other players drive through a bit more and have a go from distance the way Mehew has with his two goals. I think we are lacking in decent service in the final third through the middle of the pitch but just as important I also think they’ll at we have a weakness through the middle of the pitch without the ball. We have otzumer but I’m not convinced we have the experienced midfield general who can help us control a game once we take the lead or go behind. Also Westbrooke hit it low towards the keepers feet slightly to one side a difficult shot to save through legs it wasn’t one hell of a miss it was a very good save. Kind of agree about Oztumer but will we see the 2014 version or a shadow? Obviously hope it’s the former but I do worry about the level of expectation which is mainly based on his brilliance a fair few years ago. I really want to see more of Nicholson but he’s probably vying with Daly for a spot alongside Hanlon as our formation doesn’t really suit his traditional winger style(?). Maybe it’s Nicholson breathing down his neck that’s firing Daly’s form. I also won’t rule out Barrett for the attacking midfield role when fit, would prefer our own ahead of loanees unless there is a massive gulf in quality. Nice to have so many options for a change and a nice headache for BG. UTG. I think out of all the attacking minded midfielders we’ve got Garner can probably find the right mix to get us creating more chances. I like Hargreaves I think he can be that attacking midfielder who drives forward in to the final third regardless of whether Otzumer is still quality or way past his best. My worry is that so far Grant doesn’t look like a defensive midfielder and I’m struggling to think of one in our massive squad who can replace him. We’ve got lots of midfielders in our squad so there are so many possibilities it might take Garner all season to work out the best conclusion or he might never.
|
|