stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 18, 2024 22:13:08 GMT
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 18, 2024 22:15:57 GMT
www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/ipsos-election-mrpIpsos publishes its first MRP (multiple regression and post stratification) model of the 2024 General Election. This Ipsos MRP projection uses a large-scale online survey of nearly 20,000 participants on the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, and population data at a constituency level, to project which party will win individual seats at the upcoming General Election. The estimated seat counts, with upper and lower range estimates, are as follows: Labour 453 (with a range of 439 to 462 seats) Conservatives 115 (with a range of 99 to 123 seats) Liberal Democrats 38 (with a range of 35 to 48 seats) SNP 15 (with a range of 13 to 23 seats) Plaid Cymru 4 (with a range of 2 to 5 seats) Reform UK 3 (with range of 3 to 10 seats) Green Party 3 (with a range of 0 to 4 seats) I'd be pleasantly surprised if the SNP and Conservative numbers are that low. I think the Green, Reform and Lib Dem numbers are pretty much on the money.
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Post by aghast on Jun 18, 2024 22:54:20 GMT
I read last week that the Sun ALWAYS backs the winner. Their favoured party has formed the government for the last 10 million years or something. I'm not sure if that can be read as suggesting that the Sun's verdict had such power that it swayed the vote, or if they just backed the favourites. Probably irrelevant nowadays when the massive political influence held by the newspapers is a thing of the past.
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Post by yattongas on Jun 19, 2024 5:53:59 GMT
www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/ipsos-election-mrpIpsos publishes its first MRP (multiple regression and post stratification) model of the 2024 General Election. This Ipsos MRP projection uses a large-scale online survey of nearly 20,000 participants on the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, and population data at a constituency level, to project which party will win individual seats at the upcoming General Election. The estimated seat counts, with upper and lower range estimates, are as follows: Labour 453 (with a range of 439 to 462 seats) Conservatives 115 (with a range of 99 to 123 seats) Liberal Democrats 38 (with a range of 35 to 48 seats) SNP 15 (with a range of 13 to 23 seats) Plaid Cymru 4 (with a range of 2 to 5 seats) Reform UK 3 (with range of 3 to 10 seats) Green Party 3 (with a range of 0 to 4 seats) I'd be pleasantly surprised if the SNP and Conservative numbers are that low. I think the Green, Reform and Lib Dem numbers are pretty much on the money. Think Libdems will get nearer the 50-60 score and Tories under 100
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Post by supergas on Jun 19, 2024 10:35:49 GMT
French politics is interesting at the moment , is it going to go hard left or hard right ? Macron looks doomed sat in the middle . Whichever route they choose I think they’ll be in for a very turbulent few yrs being led by nutters on either side of the spectrum. Interesting article on UnHerd which talks about the French Election in the second part - not the politics and who will win/lose, but the economic impact of calling it. TLDR: French (and German) government borrowing costs immediately rose to the highest level in years and the European Central Bank could help economically but - for political reasons - is choosing not to. As with Italy, as with Greece, Spain, Portugal and probably some others I've forgotten about, sound fiscal policy from the ECB comes a distant second place to pro-EU politics...
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Post by supergas on Jun 19, 2024 10:46:18 GMT
There is a quote from him on LBC from last week: "...Something new is going to emerge on the centre-right. I don’t know what it’s called — but do I think I could end up leading a national opposition to a Labour party with a big majority, where I can stand up and hold them to account on issues? Yes..." I think what actually happens depends on how many MPs the Conservatives still have and which ones they are...
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 19, 2024 10:50:09 GMT
I'd be pleasantly surprised if the SNP and Conservative numbers are that low. I think the Green, Reform and Lib Dem numbers are pretty much on the money. Think Libdems will get nearer the 50-60 score and Tories under 100 I definitely expect them to get into the 40s at least, it's going to be close in a few areas. Today's news about inflation may be the sort of news that makes a waiverer vote Conservative rather than Reform, for example. Wouldn't surprise me if something comes out of the blue (👀) just before Polling Day about Farage.
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Post by supergas on Jun 19, 2024 10:55:13 GMT
Think Libdems will get nearer the 50-60 score and Tories under 100 I definitely expect them to get into the 40s at least, it's going to be close in a few areas. Today's news about inflation may be the sort of news that makes a waiverer vote Conservative rather than Reform, for example. Wouldn't surprise me if something comes out of the blue (👀) just before Polling Day about Farage. Wouldn't surprise me if something comes out of the blue just before polling day about Starmer...anyone noticed the articles in the last couple of days about how Lady Starmer is not campaigning to 'protect his family life'...? There are one or two rumours that suggest there is another reason...
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Post by yattongas on Jun 19, 2024 10:56:44 GMT
French politics is interesting at the moment , is it going to go hard left or hard right ? Macron looks doomed sat in the middle . Whichever route they choose I think they’ll be in for a very turbulent few yrs being led by nutters on either side of the spectrum. Interesting article on UnHerd which talks about the French Election in the second part - not the politics and who will win/lose, but the economic impact of calling it. TLDR: French (and German) government borrowing costs immediately rose to the highest level in years and the European Central Bank could help economically but - for political reasons - is choosing not to. As with Italy, as with Greece, Spain, Portugal and probably some others I've forgotten about, sound fiscal policy from the ECB comes a distant second place to pro-EU politics... Oh right , …..the EU 🙄😂 Have a good day Super !
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 19, 2024 11:02:23 GMT
There is a quote from him on LBC from last week: "...Something new is going to emerge on the centre-right. I don’t know what it’s called — but do I think I could end up leading a national opposition to a Labour party with a big majority, where I can stand up and hold them to account on issues? Yes..." I think what actually happens depends on how many MPs the Conservatives still have and which ones they are... Definitely regarding the last point. Wonder who are the MPs of the 100 safest Conservative seats are.
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 19, 2024 11:03:20 GMT
I definitely expect them to get into the 40s at least, it's going to be close in a few areas. Today's news about inflation may be the sort of news that makes a waiverer vote Conservative rather than Reform, for example. Wouldn't surprise me if something comes out of the blue (👀) just before Polling Day about Farage. Wouldn't surprise me if something comes out of the blue just before polling day about Starmer...anyone noticed the articles in the last couple of days about how Lady Starmer is not campaigning to 'protect his family life'...? There are one or two rumours that suggest there is another reason... Which are?
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Post by supergas on Jun 19, 2024 11:39:17 GMT
There is a quote from him on LBC from last week: "...Something new is going to emerge on the centre-right. I don’t know what it’s called — but do I think I could end up leading a national opposition to a Labour party with a big majority, where I can stand up and hold them to account on issues? Yes..." I think what actually happens depends on how many MPs the Conservatives still have and which ones they are... Definitely regarding the last point. Wonder who are the MPs of the 100 safest Conservative seats are. Not sure, but I will have a read through the report and see if I can find out. One of the 'headlines' that's not being reported is that the Conservatives are only just behind (<5%) in 50+ seats - which means that if the 115 prediction is accurate it could easily jump to 165 over just one or two issues....
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Post by yattongas on Jun 19, 2024 11:55:41 GMT
Think Libdems will get nearer the 50-60 score and Tories under 100 I definitely expect them to get into the 40s at least, it's going to be close in a few areas. Today's news about inflation may be the sort of news that makes a waiverer vote Conservative rather than Reform, for example. Wouldn't surprise me if something comes out of the blue (👀) just before Polling Day about Farage. Seriously! 🙄😂 What could possibly come out about Farage that would put off the people who’d vote for him that they don’t already know about him?
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Post by supergas on Jun 19, 2024 12:01:50 GMT
There is a quote from him on LBC from last week: "...Something new is going to emerge on the centre-right. I don’t know what it’s called — but do I think I could end up leading a national opposition to a Labour party with a big majority, where I can stand up and hold them to account on issues? Yes..." I think what actually happens depends on how many MPs the Conservatives still have and which ones they are... Definitely regarding the last point. Wonder who are the MPs of the 100 safest Conservative seats are. It doesn't list the MPs, just the seats - you can only get to 59 before it becomes a toss-up: North Dorset Maldon Arundel and South Downs Beaconsfield Brentwood and Ongar Christchurch East Grinstead and Uckfield East Hampshire East Surrey Hamble Valley Hinckley and Bosworth Horsham Maidenhead Melksham and Devizes Mid Buckinghamshire New Forest East New Forest West North East Hampshire Romsey and Southampton North Rutland and Stamford Sevenoaks South Holland and The Deepings South Shropshire Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Stratford-on-Avon Weald of Kent Wells and Mendip Hills Bexhill and Battle Braintree Castle Point Daventry Droitwich and Evesham Ely and East Cambridgeshire Exmouth and Exeter East Fareham and Waterlooville Farnham and Bordon Gosport Havant Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Louth and Horncastle Mid Dorset and North Poole Mid Norfolk Newton Abbot North Cotswolds North East Cambridgeshire North Shropshire North West Essex North West Hampshire Rayleigh and Wickford Reigate Richmond and Northallerton Solihull West and Shirley Surrey Heath Sussex Weald Sutton and Cheam Tewkesbury Thirsk and Malton Tunbridge Wells West Worcestershire
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 19, 2024 12:05:23 GMT
I definitely expect them to get into the 40s at least, it's going to be close in a few areas. Today's news about inflation may be the sort of news that makes a waiverer vote Conservative rather than Reform, for example. Wouldn't surprise me if something comes out of the blue (👀) just before Polling Day about Farage. Seriously! 🙄😂 What could possibly come out about Farage that would put off the people who’d vote for him that they don’t already know about him? Who said it has to be true? 😉
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 19, 2024 16:56:53 GMT
New poll. Labour 425, Conservative 108, SNP 20 and Lib Dem 67. Greens get 2 while PC win 4. Reform win 5. I've put a few areas in, Bristol is Labour except for Central which goes Green. My area kicks out Jack Lopresti. 👍 One thing that surprised me was Glasgow turning Labour en masse, Edinburgh stay SNP. news.sky.com/story/tories-to-slump-to-lowest-number-of-seats-since-partys-formation-new-poll-projects-13155554"Since the last YouGov MRP projection at the beginning of June, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats. The Tories have dropped 32 seats since then, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid Cymru up two. Reform UK wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win zero according to YouGov."
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Post by yattongas on Jun 19, 2024 20:30:00 GMT
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Jun 19, 2024 21:33:25 GMT
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Post by yattongas on Jun 19, 2024 21:41:15 GMT
It’s a thing of beauty ! 👍
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Post by trevorgas on Jun 19, 2024 22:28:27 GMT
It’s a thing of beauty ! 👍 It's not really though is it,we need a credible opposition to hold any government to account,the foundations of our democracy is underpinned by this ,there is always a significant risk if we enter a period of total dominance by any party.
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