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Post by pirateman on Dec 7, 2015 12:43:50 GMT
Bets today - probably one or two more to come at Lingfield
Musselburgh 1.15 Quito Du Tresor at 7/2
Chelmsford 3.40 Bint Dandy at 12.35/1 (betfair)
Chelmsford 4.10 Tommy's Secret at 10/1 Lingfield 2.00 Aleator 5/2 Lingfield 3.00 Hannington 11/2
Mixture of long and shortish odds today
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Post by pirateman on Dec 7, 2015 16:41:07 GMT
Black December so far. All losses today. Still in good profit so not worried. The massive wins early on could never be sustained (Otherwise I would be rich by now and building the UWE)
AW 27 points bet. 39.75 points return. 12.75 points profit. 47% profit
Jumps 21 points bet. 29 points return 8 points profit. 38% profit
Total 48 points bet 68.75 points return 20.75 points profit 43% profit
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Post by pirateman on Dec 8, 2015 13:18:48 GMT
Two bets today, both on the all weather at Southwell
2.00 Tiger's Home at 2.76/1 (betfair)
3.30 Frosty Berry at 15/2
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Post by pirateman on Dec 8, 2015 15:41:57 GMT
That's better
Tiger's Home lost by a neck so hit the woodwork
Frosty Berry won
6.5 points up on the day.
AW 29 points bet. 48.25 points return. 19.75 points profit. 68% profit
Jumps 21 points bet. 29 points return 8 points profit. 38% profit
Total 50 points bet 77.25 points return 27.25 points profit 54.50% profit
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Post by pirateman on Dec 9, 2015 12:30:04 GMT
Two more on the AW today
Lingfield 1.20 Jodie's Jem at 4/1
Kempton 7.10 Gaelic Silver at 7/1
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2015 12:54:34 GMT
When it comes to betting on the gee gees I am a total numpty. I have only been in a betting shop once in my life, and I wouldn't have the first clue as to how to make a bet.
This is all double-dutch to me, so can you please explain what it all means (in simple terms for a simpleton). I understand 4-1 or 7-1 etc, but what is it about the points?
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Post by pirateman on Dec 9, 2015 13:48:35 GMT
Simple Nobby. I am quoting points rather than cash sums because as the season goes on and if the methods are consistently successful I am likely to increase the amount I bet. So if you just think of 1 point as £1.00 it will make more sense to you. The percentages are simply the percentage of money (points) won per money bet. All Weather racing is flat racing on artificial surfaces. There are only 5 courses in the UK. Steeplechases aka Chases are jumps races over more difficult (and more of them) fences than Hurdles races. Simplest fact about horse race betting: Unless you know what you are doing or are very lucky you will lose in the long term.  |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2015 13:54:19 GMT
I had my old man constantly drumming it into me, "you never see a poor bookie".
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Post by pirateman on Dec 9, 2015 13:59:56 GMT
I had my old man constantly drumming it into me, "you never see a poor bookie". Very true. It is estimated that 1-2% of punters make a profit. I have made a profit for the last few years but that is after lots of years studying and losing a bit of money, and could easily change. Fortunately I am not an addict and even when I was losing I was able to limit my losses to pocket money. Most important thing is not to 'chase losses'. Many punters and rip off tipsters advise systems where you increase your bets after losing to try to get your money back - express ticket to the poor house!
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Post by pirateman on Dec 9, 2015 19:18:57 GMT
Two losses today
Jodie's Jem was nowhere
Gaelic Silver a near miss with a very close 3rd place
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Dec 10, 2015 0:08:13 GMT
I had my old man constantly drumming it into me, "you never see a poor bookie". Very true. It is estimated that 1-2% of punters make a profit. I have made a profit for the last few years but that is after lots of years studying and losing a bit of money, and could easily change. Fortunately I am not an addict and even when I was losing I was able to limit my losses to pocket money. Most important thing is not to 'chase losses'. Many punters and rip off tipsters advise systems where you increase your bets after losing to try to get your money back - express ticket to the poor house!
I have chased in the past which is my big problem. If I didn't then I would definitely beat the bookie if I stayed disciplined. Unfortunately sometimes I get too watered off when I lose. I bet for value not the most likely outcome. |
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Post by pirateman on Dec 10, 2015 12:39:49 GMT
Couple of chase bets today Might have some AW later
Two favourites, but just about good value IMO
Warwick 1.30 Capilla at 6/5
Taunton 3.10 Barrakilla at 9/4
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Post by pirateman on Dec 10, 2015 12:41:05 GMT
Very true. It is estimated that 1-2% of punters make a profit. I have made a profit for the last few years but that is after lots of years studying and losing a bit of money, and could easily change. Fortunately I am not an addict and even when I was losing I was able to limit my losses to pocket money. Most important thing is not to 'chase losses'. Many punters and rip off tipsters advise systems where you increase your bets after losing to try to get your money back - express ticket to the poor house!
I have chased in the past which is my big problem. If I didn't then I would definitely beat the bookie if I stayed disciplined. Unfortunately sometimes I get too watered off when I lose. I bet for value not the most likely outcome. Important to get value. I go for something with a decent chance of winning but also good or at least decent value. |
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Dec 10, 2015 12:54:00 GMT
I have chased in the past which is my big problem. If I didn't then I would definitely beat the bookie if I stayed disciplined. Unfortunately sometimes I get too watered off when I lose. I bet for value not the most likely outcome. Important to get value. I go for something with a decent chance of winning but also good or at least decent value. Yep. It's all about doing your calculations. You might fancy the favourite but it is say 4/6 with a 50% chance of winning but you might have a 8/1 shot in the same race which you consider has a 15-20% chance of winning. You've gotta back the 8/1 shot. You have to accept you are not always going to win betting like this but long term you will make money. |
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Post by pirateman on Dec 10, 2015 13:11:27 GMT
Important to get value. I go for something with a decent chance of winning but also good or at least decent value. Yep. It's all about doing your calculations. You might fancy the favourite but it is say 4/6 with a 50% chance of winning but you might have a 8/1 shot in the same race which you consider has a 15-20% chance of winning. You've gotta back the 8/1 shot. You have to accept you are not always going to win betting like this but long term you will make money. That's right. It's not how many winners you pick, but whether you are up at the end of the season Case in point my AW pick for today is an outsider
Chelmsford 5.40 Boonga Roogeta at 7/1
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Post by pirateman on Dec 11, 2015 13:08:33 GMT
Still the bad run continues. All losses yesterday.
Todays bets AW at Wolverhampton
5.40 Hickster at 7/1
7.10 Clockmaker at 6/1
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Post by pirateman on Dec 11, 2015 19:31:19 GMT
Hickster won.
Clockmaker lost. I have noticed that my current methods are not working for 7 furlong races on the all weather so I have decided to stop betting on these. I intend to paper bet them for a few months to see if this changes but I wont be risking any more cash. I will continue with all the other stuff as normal, as it appears to be working well.
Anyway 6 points profit today.
Totals
AW 34 points bet. 56.25 points return. 22.75 points profit. 66.92% profit
Jumps 23 points bet. 29 points return 6 points profit. 26% profit
Total 57 points bet 85.25 points return 27.25 points profit 47.81% profit
All going well. December has been a bit dodgy so far over the sticks but the total profit on the sticks is holding up. I did say I was better at all weather racing and so far it seems I was right.
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Post by pirateman on Dec 12, 2015 11:12:46 GMT
One bet today over the jumps
Lingfield 1.10 Winston Churchill at 7/2
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Post by pirateman on Dec 12, 2015 13:18:36 GMT
Lost. Never liked Churchill anyway.
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Post by pirateman on Dec 13, 2015 11:59:12 GMT
This one is starting shortly A complete outsider.
Chase at Southwell 12.20 Ravens Brook at 11/1 (only about 9/1 at most bookies)
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