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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 8, 2014 18:18:27 GMT
Time to prove the notion that 'you can't beat the bookies' wrong. Hopefully I will keep a decent log of bets, but with going travelling for a few months, that may stutter at some point. I have a specific bankroll for this, but I will list my bets as points of a 100 point bankroll. Aim? Double it by the end of the season
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Post by Hugo Admin on Aug 8, 2014 18:19:43 GMT
Nice. Wishing you good luck. If you do well, I will be asking for tips mind!
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 8, 2014 18:48:15 GMT
Season Bets:
Chelsea to win the league - 10 pts @ 2.98 (Betfair)
Man Utd to win the league (with a view to laying after the first few easy games) 6.5 pts @ 6.4 (Betfair
Derby to win the Championship - 2 pts @ 9.0 (E/W) (Betfred)
Blackburn Promoted - 1pt @ 7.5 (Betfred)
Peterborough to win L1 - 1 pts @ 13 (E/W) (Coral)
Coventry to be promoted - 1pt @ 10 (Betvictor)
Gateshead to win the Conference - 1 pts @ 13 (E/W) (Betfair Exch)
Alfreton Top Half Finish - 1 pts @ 3.5 (BetVictor)
Woking to win the league +15 handicap - 0.5pt @ 19 (E/W) (Betfred)
Nuneaton to finish bottom 4 - 1 pt @ 3.5 (BetFred)
North Ferriby to win Conf North - 0.5pt @ 15 (E/W) (Bet365)
FC Flyde to win Conf North - 0.5pt @ 26 (E/W) (Bet365)
Whitehawk to win Conf South - 0.5pt @ 17 (E/W) (Bet365)
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 8, 2014 18:53:03 GMT
Weekend Bets
Brentford to win - 2pt @ 2 (Coral)
Brighton to win - 2pt @ 1.95 (Coral)
Wolves v Norwich BTTS - 2pts @ 1.91 (Coral)
EDI.. didnt realise the Blackburn match was tonight, just as I'm going to put money on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, Cardiff bloody score... Ugh.
Rovers 0-0 -0.5pt @ 10 (BetVictor)
Rovers 1-1 -0.5pt @ 7 (BetVictor)
Head always rules heart when it comes to money, but I am not going to bet an amount on Rovers I would care about.
Braintree to win 1pt @ 2.88 (Coral)
Eastleigh to win 1pt @ 2.3 (Coral)
Total bet: 9pts.
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 15, 2014 17:29:22 GMT
Not the greatest start, -1.7 pts,
Bank currently 98.3 pts.
This weekends bets:
Chelsea under 2.5 goals - 1pt @ 2.0 (Ladbrokes)
Arsenal - 1.5 - 1.5pt @ 1.77 (BetVictor)
Sunderland +0.25 - 1.5pts @ 2.0 (Bet365)
Plymouth to win - 0.5pts @ 2.1 (BetVictor)
Barnet to win - 1pt @ 1.95 (Coral)
Gateshead to win - 0.5pts @ 2.88 (Coral)
Torquay, Halix, FGR Treble 0.5pts @ 4.89 (Coral)
Grimsby under 2.5 goals - 0.5ts @ 1.85 (Bwin)
Barrow -1 - 1.5pts @ 2.8 (PaddyPower)
Whitehawk to win - 0.5 @ 3.1 (PaddyPower)
Total bet 9pts
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 18, 2014 23:36:12 GMT
Return 9.975 pts, profit of 0.975 points. Still see it as a frustrating week, though.
Bank currently on 99.275pts, -0.625pts
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Post by Hugo Admin on Aug 19, 2014 7:38:35 GMT
Well, not far off mate. Best of luck this week.
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Aug 21, 2014 23:06:52 GMT
Only just seen this CG. Will keep an eye out.
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 22, 2014 16:32:19 GMT
Well, not far off mate. Best of luck this week. Thanks Ras. Concentrating on finding some value this week.... Man City to win - 1pt @ 1.87 (BetVictor) - Man City are rock solid at home, and started off very well last week. Despite the win Liverpool looked lethargic, and their signings may take some time to bed in. Balotelli is a sign of desparation.Newcastle to win - 0.5pt @ 3.1 (BetVictor) - Newcastle overpriced here given an excellent showing at home to Man City, whereas Villa didn't exactly shine despite beating Stoke. Newcastles away form last year concerns me.Alfreton to win - 1pt @ 3.2 (WillHill) Some value in an Alfreton team that should improve, against a Wrexham team that hasn't impressed despite two wins this season. I do wish I had put 0.5pts on this now though. Valuebet.Eastleigh to win - 1pt @ 2.1 (WillHill) - Although Dover got a good point last week, unlike Eastleigh they don't have much punch going forward, who had an improved showing in a tough game away to Gateshead. Odds a bit high.Barnet to win - 1pt @ 2.2 (WillHill) - Barnet screwed things up last week and they should bounce back this week against a poor Nuneaton side, with the odds too high again.Woking to win - 1pt @ 2.4 (WillHill) - Welling, the worst side in the Conference have lost 3-0 twice and their only point came against 9 man Telford. Some value here.
Gloucester to win - 1pt @ 3.3 (BetVictor) - a crazy price, and a clear example of the bookies not paying attention to the lower leagues. Gloucester have been very unlucky in all 3 games, and could have won two and drawn the other instead of failing to win yet this season.Bradford Park Ave to win - 1pt @ 3.3 (BetVictor) - Big odds for a BPA side who have started well against a hopeless Stockport side.Colwyn Bay to win - 0.5pt @ 2.2 (BetVictor) - Hyde are useless and with a mananement team under pressure, backing their opposition is good again.
Mad add some FL games, but it has been a bit unpredictale so far. Total Bet - 8pts |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2014 21:07:52 GMT
I love this thread.
I have no clue what's going on, no idea what the point of the thread is, I dont even understand half the posts!
Is real money being used?
Is CG winning money or losing it?
Does this help others with betting?
It all seems like a lot of work just updating the thread, let alone whatever else is going on.
Great work CG!!
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Post by ganymede on Aug 24, 2014 22:10:50 GMT
Season Bets:Chelsea to win the league - 10 pts @ 2.98 (Betfair) Man Utd to win the league (with a view to laying after the first few easy games) 6.5 pts @ 6.4 (Betfair Derby to win the Championship - 2 pts @ 9.0 (E/W) (Betfred) Blackburn Promoted - 1pt @ 7.5 (Betfred) Peterborough to win L1 - 1 pts @ 13 (E/W) (Coral) Coventry to be promoted - 1pt @ 10 (Betvictor) Gateshead to win the Conference - 1 pts @ 13 (E/W) (Betfair Exch) Alfreton Top Half Finish - 1 pts @ 3.5 (BetVictor) Woking to win the league +15 handicap - 0.5pt @ 19 (E/W) (Betfred) Nuneaton to finish bottom 4 - 1 pt @ 3.5 (BetFred) North Ferriby to win Conf North - 0.5pt @ 15 (E/W) (Bet365) FC Flyde to win Conf North - 0.5pt @ 26 (E/W) (Bet365) Whitehawk to win Conf South - 0.5pt @ 17 (E/W) (Bet365) 10 pts on Chelsea seems a lot. Is this a deliberate strategy to lay off later ... or is it a conviction that Chelsea will actually win the league? |
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 27, 2014 16:46:09 GMT
I love this thread. I have no clue what's going on, no idea what the point of the thread is, I dont even understand half the posts! Is real money being used? Is CG winning money or losing it? Does this help others with betting? It all seems like a lot of work just updating the thread, let alone whatever else is going on. Great work CG!! Thanks. Yes real money, currently in the red but I've always been in profit long term. |
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 27, 2014 16:47:48 GMT
Season Bets:Chelsea to win the league - 10 pts @ 2.98 (Betfair) Man Utd to win the league (with a view to laying after the first few easy games) 6.5 pts @ 6.4 (Betfair Derby to win the Championship - 2 pts @ 9.0 (E/W) (Betfred) Blackburn Promoted - 1pt @ 7.5 (Betfred) Peterborough to win L1 - 1 pts @ 13 (E/W) (Coral) Coventry to be promoted - 1pt @ 10 (Betvictor) Gateshead to win the Conference - 1 pts @ 13 (E/W) (Betfair Exch) Alfreton Top Half Finish - 1 pts @ 3.5 (BetVictor) Woking to win the league +15 handicap - 0.5pt @ 19 (E/W) (Betfred) Nuneaton to finish bottom 4 - 1 pt @ 3.5 (BetFred) North Ferriby to win Conf North - 0.5pt @ 15 (E/W) (Bet365) FC Flyde to win Conf North - 0.5pt @ 26 (E/W) (Bet365) Whitehawk to win Conf South - 0.5pt @ 17 (E/W) (Bet365) 10 pts on Chelsea seems a lot. Is this a deliberate strategy to lay off later ... or is it a conviction that Chelsea will actually win the league? Every season I have one big punt. Last season was Man City, although I cashed out (for considerably less than I would of got) before the end of the season, as Liverpool were making it a big risk. Triple your money on Chelsea this year is a bargain IMO as it's a two horse race. I may lay it, I may leave it I'm not sure yet. Hopefully (god I hate saying this) Man Utd can pick up some form so I can get my money away from them as much as possible. |
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 27, 2014 16:53:02 GMT
Well, not far off mate. Best of luck this week. Thanks Ras. Concentrating on finding some value this week.... Man City to win - 1pt @ 1.87 (BetVictor) - Man City are rock solid at home, and started off very well last week. Despite the win Liverpool looked lethargic, and their signings may take some time to bed in. Balotelli is a sign of desparation.Newcastle to win - 0.5pt @ 3.1 (BetVictor) - Newcastle overpriced here given an excellent showing at home to Man City, whereas Villa didn't exactly shine despite beating Stoke. Newcastles away form last year concerns me.Alfreton to win - 1pt @ 3.2 (WillHill) Some value in an Alfreton team that should improve, against a Wrexham team that hasn't impressed despite two wins this season. I do wish I had put 0.5pts on this now though. Valuebet.Eastleigh to win - 1pt @ 2.1 (WillHill) - Although Dover got a good point last week, unlike Eastleigh they don't have much punch going forward, who had an improved showing in a tough game away to Gateshead. Odds a bit high.Barnet to win - 1pt @ 2.2 (WillHill) - Barnet screwed things up last week and they should bounce back this week against a poor Nuneaton side, with the odds too high again.Woking to win - 1pt @ 2.4 (WillHill) - Welling, the worst side in the Conference have lost 3-0 twice and their only point came against 9 man Telford. Some value here.
Gloucester to win - 1pt @ 3.3 (BetVictor) - a crazy price, and a clear example of the bookies not paying attention to the lower leagues. Gloucester have been very unlucky in all 3 games, and could have won two and drawn the other instead of failing to win yet this season.Bradford Park Ave to win - 1pt @ 3.3 (BetVictor) - Big odds for a BPA side who have started well against a hopeless Stockport side.Colwyn Bay to win - 0.5pt @ 2.2 (BetVictor) - Hyde are useless and with a mananement team under pressure, backing their opposition is good again.
Mad add some FL games, but it has been a bit unpredictale so far. Total Bet - 8pts Another crap week, this is getting a bit annoying now as a close result can make a big difference. The Conference has been a big loser for me. It's really frustrating as the bets I would of made (and I know this is easy to say, but I have been lazy) on the non-Saturday games would of done very well for me. Total return of 4.17 points, -3.83 pts for the week. Current bank 95.445, -4.555 Total |
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 27, 2014 17:00:40 GMT
Tonights Bets
Arsenals record in qualifying for the Champions League is faultless. I am slightly worried they may struggle through due to injuries to the likes of Ramsay and Giroud, plus other playings fatigued by the world cup. But too much value in them to qualify.
Using the exchange on Betfair to try and get the best odds.
Arsenal to win -1 - 4.5pts @ 2.54 (Betfair)
Arsenal to win -1 - 3pts @ 2.52 (Betfair)
Arsenal to win -2 - 0.5pts @ 5.1 (Betfair)
I will likely also place a bet on Arsenal to win in 90 minutes when the odds go up, which I will post here if I do.
Rafa Benitez's team means likely a low scoring game tonight.
Ath Bilbao v Napoli 0-0 Half Time Score - 0.5pts @ 2.92 (Betfair)
Ath Bilbao v Napoli under 2.5 goals - 1pt @ 1.9 (Betfair)
Total Bet (at present) - 9.5pts
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 27, 2014 19:34:05 GMT
Napoli game going well, the 0-0 half time bet has won and that obviously means good news for the under 2.5goals. Convinced the Arsenal game was going to go in 0-0 at half time I held off with the bet and would of taken 1.9 on them to win at 90 minutes. Obviously I'm not bothering now, so bets stand as above. Arsenal now 1.18 to win the game  |
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 30, 2014 11:55:36 GMT
Another absolute nightmare. Arsenal miss two absolute sitters about 6 yards out to score a second and reurn me 19pts. And score seconds before I was going to bet 10pts on them to win at just under even money. Ughh
Total return 1.92 for a loss of 7.58
Bank now stands at 87.865.
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 30, 2014 12:27:07 GMT
Saturdays Bets
Man Utd v Burnley Both Teams to Score - 1.5pts @ 2.1 (inplay) (PaddyPower) -Uniteds defense are terrible, Burnley arent scared going forward. and DiMaria/Mata/Rooney/RVP at the other end. Value
Man City to win to nil - 2pts @ 2.1 (BetVictor) Stoke haven't scored in this fixture in the last 5 games or something like that.
MK Dons to win - 1pt @ 1.75 (Ladbrokes)
Portsmouth to win - 1pt @ 2.0 (Betway)
Lincoln to win - 2pts @ 2.2 (Coral)
Eastleigh to win - 1.5pts @ 2.5 (WillHill)
Woking to win - 1pt @ 3.4 (Ladbrokes)
Chorley to win - 1pt @ 2.0 (Ladbrokes)
Treble - BorehamWood, Whitehawk & Tamworth to win - 1pt @ 4.43
Total Bet - 12pts
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Post by Hugo Admin on Aug 30, 2014 12:52:37 GMT
You need a really good day today. Why not accy some dead certs for slow gains?
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Post by Centenary Gas on Aug 30, 2014 16:29:00 GMT
Grumble... 4/9 right and I finish with a return of 9.15, a loss of 2.85. Undone by the bet sizing. Bank now 85.015
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