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Post by 2nd May 1990 on Feb 6, 2018 21:17:18 GMT
I remember when we got promoted from the conference I did a study on how promoted sides did in league 2. We happily managed to follow in Carlisle's footsteps to be the only team to gain back to back promotions. I know I'm a year late but I thought now would be a good time to see where we are compared to other teams who have recently been promoted. I've gone back 5 years:
2012/13 Promoted teams: Gillingham 17th, 12th, 9th, 20th, 12th Rotherham 4th, 21st, 21st, 24th[/b], 5th Port Vale 9th, 18th, 12th, 21st, 19th Bradford 11th, 7th, 5th, 5th, 6th
2013/14 Chesterfield 6th, 18th, 24th, 23rd[/i][/b] Rochdale 8th, 10th, 9th, 23rd[/b] Scunthorpe 16th, 7th, 3rd, 4th Fleetwood 10th, 19th, 4th, 17th
2014/15 Burton 2nd, 20th, 24th[/color] Shrewsbury 20th, 18th, 2nd Bury 16th, 19th, 24th Southend 14th, 7th, 15th
2015/16 Northampton 16th, 20th Oxford 8th, 10th Bristol Rovers 10th, 13th Wimbledon 15th, 19th
2016/17 Portsmouth 9th Plymouth 11th Doncaster 14th Blackpool 18th
There is plenty to be derived from these figures but what screams out at me is that 2 teams subsequently got promoted; Rotherham and Burton.
Rotherham avoided relegation by 1 position twice, before being relegated. Burton avoided relegation by 2 positions once and now sit bottom of the Championship.
This is evidence that two quick promotions to the Championship is unsustainable for clubs of roughly our size and means. Building blocks have to be put in place. No other way to keep progressing.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2018 21:35:56 GMT
Good post!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2018 21:53:26 GMT
Interesting stuff. All the evidence presented would appear to support your conclusions.
I'm sure someone will find a contrary argument though!
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Post by warehamgas on Feb 6, 2018 21:57:31 GMT
Very good post. Yes you are probably right about two promotions to the Championship is unsustainable but whatever happens we will not do that! But the problem with promotion is that you can’t turn it down if you get the chance to go up. Istr in 2016 some on here saying perhaps promotion to league 1 came a year too early. You can never think it comes too early, you have to take it and then try and build again. Lots of remarkable stats there. If Chesterfield were to go down to the National it would mean that we would be two leagues above them. Yet only two years ago they were two above us. I bet we had two very differing emotions in May 2014. What a different story 4 years later. Let’s hope this year I can actually enjoy the World Cup. UTG!
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Post by allgasandgaiters on Feb 6, 2018 21:57:52 GMT
Blimey! Cancel the bus Rich!
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Post by singupgas on Feb 6, 2018 22:01:20 GMT
I remember when we got promoted from the conference I did a study on how promoted sides did in league 2. We happily managed to follow in Carlisle's footsteps to be the only team to gain back to back promotions. I know I'm a year late but I thought now would be a good time to see where we are compared to other teams who have recently been promoted. I've gone back 5 years: 2012/13 Promoted teams: Gillingham 17th, 12th, 9th, 20th, 12thRotherham 4th, 21st, 21st, 24th[/b], 5thPort Vale 9th, 18th, 12th, 21st, 19thBradford 11th, 7th, 5th, 5th, 6th2013/14 Chesterfield 6th, 18th, 24th, 23rd[/i][/b] Rochdale 8th, 10th, 9th, 23rd[/b] Scunthorpe 16th, 7th, 3rd, 4thFleetwood 10th, 19th, 4th, 17th2014/15 Burton 2nd, 20th, 24th[/color] Shrewsbury 20th, 18th, 2ndBury 16th, 19th, 24thSouthend 14th, 7th, 15th2015/16 Northampton 16th, 20thOxford 8th, 10thBristol Rovers 10th, 13thWimbledon 15th, 19th2016/17 Portsmouth 9thPlymouth 11thDoncaster 14thBlackpool 18thThere is plenty to be derived from these figures but what screams out at me is that 2 teams subsequently got promoted; Rotherham and Burton. Rotherham avoided relegation by 1 position twice, before being relegated. Burton avoided relegation by 2 positions once and now sit bottom of the Championship. This is evidence that two quick promotions to the Championship is unsustainable for clubs of roughly our size and means. Building blocks have to be put in place. No other way to keep progressing.[/quote] Let's hope those building blocks are put in place sooner rather later. Still yet to hear anything aren't we. Can only hope we can stay in league 1.
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Post by gregsy on Feb 6, 2018 22:10:45 GMT
There's a scary amount of consistencies / repetitions in there....
Interesting stats mate....
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Post by midlandgas213 on Feb 6, 2018 22:15:17 GMT
Need to be a mathematician to follow this
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Post by 2nd May 1990 on Feb 6, 2018 22:29:09 GMT
One thing that I would say is that we can't actually compare ourselves to Burton when it comes to following.
I hadn't realised that they have consistently failed to fill their stadium over the last two years even though the capacity is only 6,500. That's poor when you think it's by far the club's highest ebb and they need all the support they can get. I would like to think we would sell out 11,000 every week even in a relegation fight if we were in the Championship. Rotherham is a pretty good comparison, though. They averaged 10,000 for all of their Championship seasons and have a capacity of 12,000.
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Post by romangas on Feb 6, 2018 22:31:38 GMT
.... All DC needs is time to get the foundations in place.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2018 22:42:31 GMT
Burton had by memory a crowd of 2,700 for a very recent championship match. I think its ok to get promoted to the championship without the means to sustain it as long as you dont overspend and properly manage your future relegation.
How much would it cost the owners to produce a genuine championship set up with genuine championship players?
£40,000,000----80,000,000?
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Post by 2nd May 1990 on Feb 6, 2018 22:46:03 GMT
Burton had by memory a crowd of 2,700 for a very recent championship match. I think its ok to get promoted to the championship without the means to sustain it as long as you dont overspend and properly manage your future relegation. How much would it cost the owners to produce a genuine championship set up with genuine championship players? £40,000,000----80,000,000? It's a good point in theory, but relegation can really kill the momentum of a club. Think of where Yeovil are now, or Blackpool compared to their season in the Prem. Fair play to Rotherham. They are making a decent fist of it in league 1 this season. I thought they might struggle.
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Post by Topper Gas on Feb 6, 2018 22:46:39 GMT
One thing that I would say is that we can't actually compare ourselves to Burton when it comes to following. I hadn't realised that they have consistently failed to fill their stadium over the last two years even though the capacity is only 6,500. That's poor when you think it's by far the club's highest ebb and they need all the support they can get. I would like to think we would sell out 11,000 every week even in a relegation fight if we were in the Championship. Rotherham is a pretty good comparison, though. They averaged 10,000 for all of their Championship seasons and have a capacity of 12,000. Burton is a tiny town though compared to Bristol, I doubt it's bigger than W-S-M let alone somewhere like Exeter, I'm not really sure how they have achieved what they have to be honest. I hope if they go down they don't plummet like Yeovil did. What we need is the infrastructure DC, and even NH before him, talks about, the big question we keep asking is can the ALQ's ever deliver what's required and, if so, what's the time scales, 5, 10 or even more years? We could well be playing Sunderland next season just a few seasons after we were 4 divisions apart!
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Post by 2nd May 1990 on Feb 6, 2018 22:51:06 GMT
One thing that I would say is that we can't actually compare ourselves to Burton when it comes to following. I hadn't realised that they have consistently failed to fill their stadium over the last two years even though the capacity is only 6,500. That's poor when you think it's by far the club's highest ebb and they need all the support they can get. I would like to think we would sell out 11,000 every week even in a relegation fight if we were in the Championship. Rotherham is a pretty good comparison, though. They averaged 10,000 for all of their Championship seasons and have a capacity of 12,000. Burton is a tiny town though compared to Bristol, I doubt it's bigger than W-S-M let alone somewhere like Exeter, I'm not really sure how they have achieved what they have to be honest. I hope if they go down they don't plummet like Yeovil did. What we need is the infrastructure DC, and even NH before him, talks about, the big question we keep asking is can the ALQ's ever deliver what's required and, if so, what's the time scales, 5, 10 or even more years? We could well be playing Sunderland next season just a few seasons after we were 4 divisions apart! I agree, and I like Burton too. The location doesn't help. So many established and well supported teams on their doorstep.
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Post by singupgas on Feb 6, 2018 23:05:41 GMT
One thing that I would say is that we can't actually compare ourselves to Burton when it comes to following. I hadn't realised that they have consistently failed to fill their stadium over the last two years even though the capacity is only 6,500. That's poor when you think it's by far the club's highest ebb and they need all the support they can get. I would like to think we would sell out 11,000 every week even in a relegation fight if we were in the Championship. Rotherham is a pretty good comparison, though. They averaged 10,000 for all of their Championship seasons and have a capacity of 12,000. Burton is a tiny town though compared to Bristol, I doubt it's bigger than W-S-M let alone somewhere like Exeter, I'm not really sure how they have achieved what they have to be honest. I hope if they go down they don't plummet like Yeovil did. What we need is the infrastructure DC, and even NH before him, talks about, the big question we keep asking is can the ALQ's ever deliver what's required and, if so, what's the time scales, 5, 10 or even more years? We could well be playing Sunderland next season just a few seasons after we were 4 divisions apart! That is the big question. When? The developers for the training ground were announced before new year. No plans are in public eye. UWE was over before the start of the season and we are none the wiser what the plans are regards to stadium developments. I have lost my belief in the board personally. A new ground would have made this club, I can't understand why it had now been accepted that we hear very little. Until we are playing in a modern stadium we will forever be a league 1/2 club. We would easily fill a 20k seater in my opinion. Let's all be honest our season will certainly not end in a play off chase, but our numbers still even on cold and wet Jan and Feb days are pretty good.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2018 1:43:08 GMT
Burton is a tiny town though compared to Bristol, I doubt it's bigger than W-S-M let alone somewhere like Exeter, I'm not really sure how they have achieved what they have to be honest. I hope if they go down they don't plummet like Yeovil did. What we need is the infrastructure DC, and even NH before him, talks about, the big question we keep asking is can the ALQ's ever deliver what's required and, if so, what's the time scales, 5, 10 or even more years? We could well be playing Sunderland next season just a few seasons after we were 4 divisions apart! That is the big question. When? The developers for the training ground were announced before new year. No plans are in public eye. UWE was over before the start of the season and we are none the wiser what the plans are regards to stadium developments. I have lost my belief in the board personally. A new ground would have made this club, I can't understand why it had now been accepted that we hear very little. Until we are playing in a modern stadium we will forever be a league 1/2 club. We would easily fill a 20k seater in my opinion. Let's all be honest our season will certainly not end in a play off chase, but our numbers still even on cold and wet Jan and Feb days are pretty good. No evidence we could "easily fill" a 20k seater stadium,just fantasy island stuff.
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Post by dinsdale on Feb 7, 2018 5:10:23 GMT
We need proper investment
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Post by Hugo the Elder on Feb 7, 2018 5:36:42 GMT
We need proper investment Agreed, but what does that look like? Is proper investment gradually consolidating the squad by adding 2 or 3 "better" players each window for a couple of seasons while working on a plan to develop facilities in the background? Or is it chucking loads of cash at one single transfer window and risking the whole culture at the club that has taken so long to rebuild whilst entering into a poorly negotiated deal to build a shiny new stadium? Obviously the first option only works if they are actually working on a plan in the background!!
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Post by gasify on Feb 7, 2018 7:07:15 GMT
There has been plenty of teams that have thrown cash at promotion, yet not achieved it.
We threw some cash around in the summer on Sercombe and Nicholls, only 50% success rate at the moment (hoping that will change in the run in).
Slow and steady, evolution not revolution has to be the way forward and I think we are seeing that. We are building for a promotion push in the 2019/20 season. Next year, will be too soon imho.
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Post by sallycinnamon on Feb 7, 2018 7:54:25 GMT
That is the big question. When? The developers for the training ground were announced before new year. No plans are in public eye. UWE was over before the start of the season and we are none the wiser what the plans are regards to stadium developments. I have lost my belief in the board personally. A new ground would have made this club, I can't understand why it had now before en accepted that we hear very little. Until we are playing in a modern stadium we will forever be a league 1/2 club. We would easily fill a 20k seater in my opinion. Let's all be honest our season will certainly not end in a play off chase, but our numbers still even on cold and wet Jan and Feb days are pretty good. No evidence we could "easily fill" a 20k seater stadium,just fantasy island stuff. more evidence pointed towards that we would than if we wouldn’t
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