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Post by lpgas on Jul 30, 2018 10:00:15 GMT
I think maybe I got people confused, and I made a mistake. If you want to be successful in this league then you need to have a tight defence. So for the last 2 seasons here are the top six, and the teams that let in more than us, 5 last season and 4 the season before. If like DC says he wants to get to the play offs we need to tighten up
Top 6 Sheff Utd 47 Bolton W 36 Scunny 54 Fleetw 43 Bradf 43 Millwall 57
Rovers in 10th conceded 70 Northampton in 16th 73 Bury in 19th 73 Gills in 20th 79 Chesterfield Bottom 78
Top 6 Wigan 29 Blackburn 40 Shrews 39 Rotherham 53 Scunny 50 Charlton 51 Plymouth 59 ------------- Rovers 13th 66 Fleetwood 68 Oldham 75 Northampton 77 MK 69 Bury 71
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2018 11:44:58 GMT
The art of being a successful football club is to score goals, and to prevent the opposition from scoring. At the moment we have 2 first team strikers, one who might score, the other can't score. Meanwhile at the back we have a defence that has leaked goals for the last 10 years, and I see no way to improve that unless we change manager and at least 6 defenders "Meanwhile at the back we have a defence that has leaked goals for the last 10 years"
When someone makes an assertion like that, I can't help but check if it is actually true. Here's our goals conceded record over the last 5 years ( I thought it fair to only include seasons where DC has been involved - I don't think we can blame DC or our current defenders for events that happened before they even joined the club), along with an average for the division and the standard deviation (a statistical measure - if a number is within 1 standard deviation of a data set, then it can be considered random noise):
2013 (League 2) = Conceded 54, division average 54.6, standard deviation = 7.7 - bang average record, even in our relegation season. Our defence performed fine, what cost us was not scoring goals. 2014 (Conference) = Conceded 34, division average 62, standard deviation = 13.8 - best defensive record in the division. I don't know how that can be considered leaky. 2015 (League 2) = Conceded 46, division average 61, standard deviation = 14.8 - statistically significant below average goals conceded, so not leaky at all 2016 (League 1) = Conceded 70, division average 59, standard deviation = 11.7 - just statistically significant above average goals conceded, so a bit leaky 2017 (League 1) = Conceded 66, division average 58, standard deviation = 11.5 - slightly above average goals conceded, but not statistically significant.
So there's only been 1 season in the last 5 where our defence could be considered leaky, and we should consider that that season followed 2 promotions in succession.
What a fantastic post! Great work. I must admit that, even as an unapologetic fan of DC and his style, I thought our weakness was conceding too many goals (largely due to the tendency to go for it when we're losing or level in a game, which is fine). It's fair to say that it needs improving slightly if we are really looking at going up, but it certainly isn't the issue many (including me) thought it was.
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Post by Topper Gas on Jul 30, 2018 12:14:53 GMT
I think maybe I got people confused, and I made a mistake. If you want to be successful in this league then you need to have a tight defence. So for the last 2 seasons here are the top six, and the teams that let in more than us, 5 last season and 4 the season before. If like DC says he wants to get to the play offs we need to tighten up Top 6 Sheff Utd 47 Bolton W 36 Scunny 54 Fleetw 43 Bradf 43 Millwall 57 Rovers in 10th conceded 70 Northampton in 16th 73 Bury in 19th 73 Gills in 20th 79 Chesterfield Bottom 78 Top 6 Wigan 29 Blackburn 40 Shrews 39 Rotherham 53 Scunny 50 Charlton 51 Plymouth 59 ------------- Rovers 13th 66 Fleetwood 68 Oldham 75 Northampton 77 MK 69 Bury 71 Assuming the last two seasons are typical ones then it looks like we need to aim for 50 goals conceded, I assume DC's brought in Upson and TDH to help do that, although the worry for me in Broadbent doesn't seem to be progressing as hoped, although how can he if he doesn't play?, so can we rely on TL/TC for a full season?. Personally I'd send Broadbent out on loan to a Div 2 side for 6 months to get some valuable game time and get in another CH on loan.
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Post by stuart1974 on Jul 30, 2018 12:18:44 GMT
If we concede on average a goal a game then we won't be far off. I wouldn't underestimate the importance of the midfield signings in influencing both defence and attack despite the obvious lack of movement in those specific areas.
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Post by Gassy on Jul 30, 2018 12:35:49 GMT
Strange thread in the fact that I agree with each side of the arguments.
I think the problem here is that the first half of last season we were the worst defensively before improving in January. Although it’s very early, the signs aren’t good and we look like repeating the madness. The (obviously) most worrying part here is that without the strikers we cannot defend from the front. Harrison, Taylor, Gaffney and Bodin all put one hell of a shift in up front for the team to close down and force pressure on the opposing defence.
Nichols does not do that at all. He watches play go on and barely runs.
I’m fairly confident that if we get a decent striker or 2 then we will be fine all over the pitch. Overall we have improved (apart from up front). If we can get to a similar level then I’m sure we’ll challenge much more than we did last season
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Post by stigofthegas on Jul 30, 2018 13:22:52 GMT
I agree with the OP as well. Great post.
Obviously I have some concerns as I am sure all Gasheads do but not enough to react like many on here. It’s worse on Facebook. Some people clearly just do not get the concept of intelligent debate and agreeing to disagree.
Throughout history it’s always been the case that a small brain and a big mouth is a dangerous combination. Unfortunately social media acts like a megaphone for those most challenged!!!
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Post by faggotygas on Jul 30, 2018 13:33:06 GMT
I think maybe I got people confused, and I made a mistake. If you want to be successful in this league then you need to have a tight defence. So for the last 2 seasons here are the top six, and the teams that let in more than us, 5 last season and 4 the season before. If like DC says he wants to get to the play offs we need to tighten up Top 6 Sheff Utd 47 Bolton W 36 Scunny 54 Fleetw 43 Bradf 43 Millwall 57 Rovers in 10th conceded 70 Northampton in 16th 73 Bury in 19th 73 Gills in 20th 79 Chesterfield Bottom 78 Top 6 Wigan 29 Blackburn 40 Shrews 39 Rotherham 53 Scunny 50 Charlton 51 Plymouth 59 ------------- Rovers 13th 66 Fleetwood 68 Oldham 75 Northampton 77 MK 69 Bury 71 My point with the standard deviations was that a few goals either way is just fluff. What does seem to be true is that if you concede less than one whole standard deviation less than the average you tend to get promoted. One SD more than average and you tend to get relegated. Inbetween is just fluff, is unpredictable and doesn't really matter. We could have conceded say 10 goals less and it wouldn't have meant that we were a significantly better team.
I said similar when we were relegated - it wasn't the complete fault of the players or management at the time, it was the fault of the club as a whole that we were in the bottom third season after season. Eventually it was going to bite us on the bum, and it did.
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