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Post by Iliveinbidefordgas on Apr 24, 2019 14:13:36 GMT
Just one word needed MANSFIELD
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Post by axegas on Apr 24, 2019 14:19:38 GMT
Just one word needed MANSFIELD If we have a mathematical chance of being relegated on the final day and Barnsley turn up without a kit, not even JCH will be able to save us.
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Post by Topper Gas on Apr 24, 2019 14:32:14 GMT
Looking at it, there is the possible scenario of Barnsley needing just a draw in the last game to confirm promotion with us just needing a point also. How would people feel about both sides playing out a draw by passing the ball about for 90 minutes? Against the spirit of the game or perfectly acceptable? Not really sure that's even a possibility, at present Barnsley can be champions, runners up or finish in the play offs. I sense they'll need 3 pts regardless. Just one word needed MANSFIELD Not really relevant though at the moment as we've two games to get a point not just one game, plus at least two teams below us need to win their games on Saturday, this time next week it might by a Mansfield's situation, fingers crossed it isn't!
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Post by keygas on Apr 24, 2019 14:38:34 GMT
Never thought I say this but I will be rooting for Wycombe Saturday, they are at Wimbledon knowing that if they get at least a point they will be safe from the drop which in turn will because of our far superior goal difference mean we are also safe.
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Post by Jomo on Apr 24, 2019 15:12:40 GMT
I understand that it would soften the blow to put a tenner on at 250-1 for us to go down, my point was just about betting odds in general. Some people seem to take it seriously almost as a science behind it. The odds of anything are either obvious or complete guesswork. There's no science or skill behind it at all in my opinion. Are you serious? You couldn't be further from the truth. There is an enormous amount of mathematical science that goes in to it - if not they'd be going bankrupt!! Trust me, the algorithms built to price up the odds are astoundingly sophisticated. Of course they "get it wrong" now and again - that's why most gamblers look for "value". But to say it's complete guesswork is laughable I'm afraid. I think I mislead with my original posts about this. I agree that the bookies themselves put a lot of research into it, they'd be foolish not to. My point was in regards to customers taking odds seriously with regards to promotion likelihood etc. Ultimately the bookies will win, it's their science, not for the punters to seriously try to win hence why I don't get why so many people discuss the betting odds at length. Talk Sport on a morning is a nightmare for it. Next Manager Odds is the worst, they talk about it like it actually means something, but the odds will change at the drop of a hat and the next day they'll be doing it all over again.
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Post by peterhooper57 on Apr 24, 2019 16:34:40 GMT
We do not want to be playing Barnsley needing points to stay up, IMO that would be a dooms day scenario, Mansfield 2, I am hoping on Saturday AFCW will beat Wycombe, Accrington will beat Plymouth, Rochdale will beat Southend & Scunthorpe will lose at home to Bradford = survival.
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Post by I Voted For Kodos on Apr 24, 2019 16:34:54 GMT
Right to get back to the OP, I thought I'd take a look at the actual scenarios in which we can be relegated.
We either need to lose both of our games or draw one and lose the other. Any more than a point and we'll be definitely safe on at least 52 points.
All of the below are assuming there are 3 outcomes for each game and that all are equally likely.
IF we lose both (which in itself is 1 in 9) Wimbledon need to win both: 1 in 9 Southend would need 4 points to move above us: 3 in 9 Wycombe would need to win or draw their last game (having lost to AFCW) 2 in 3 Shrewsbury probably need a point in their last two: 8 in 9 One of Plymouth and Scunthorpe still need to finish above us and they play each other. It is too complicated to go into but only 12 of the 27 scenarios would see one of the them get 51 points or above: 12 in 27
Overall, that is 576 in 531441 or 0.11%
IF we get a point in one of the games (2 in 9) Wimbledon still need to win both: 1 in 9 Southend need to win both: 1 in 9 Wycombe need to win their last game (having lost to AFCW): 1 in 3 Shrewsbury probably need two points from their last two: 5 in 9 One of Plymouth and Scunthorpe still need to finish above us, again too complicated but: 6 in 27 Rochdale would need a point from their last game (having lost to Southend): 2 in 3 Accrington would need a point and this is dependent on how they did against Plymouth and so those 6 scenarios split in 18 scenarios: 14 in 18
Overall, that is 3360 in 28,697,814 or 0.012%
Adding that together that is a 0.12% chance or about 1 in 833.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2019 17:22:11 GMT
Right to get back to the OP, I thought I'd take a look at the actual scenarios in which we can be relegated. We either need to lose both of our games or draw one and lose the other. Any more than a point and we'll be definitely safe on at least 52 points. All of the below are assuming there are 3 outcomes for each game and that all are equally likely. IF we lose both (which in itself is 1 in 9)
Wimbledon need to win both: 1 in 9 Southend would need 4 points to move above us: 3 in 9 Wycombe would need to win or draw their last game (having lost to AFCW) 2 in 3 Shrewsbury probably need a point in their last two: 8 in 9 One of Plymouth and Scunthorpe still need to finish above us and they play each other. It is too complicated to go into but only 12 of the 27 scenarios would see one of the them get 51 points or above: 12 in 27 Overall, that is 576 in 531441 or 0.11% IF we get a point in one of the games (2 in 9)
Wimbledon still need to win both: 1 in 9 Southend need to win both: 1 in 9 Wycombe need to win their last game (having lost to AFCW): 1 in 3 Shrewsbury probably need two points from their last two: 5 in 9 One of Plymouth and Scunthorpe still need to finish above us, again too complicated but: 6 in 27 Rochdale would need a point from their last game (having lost to Southend): 2 in 3 Accrington would need a point and this is dependent on how they did against Plymouth and so those 6 scenarios split in 18 scenarios: 14 in 18 Overall, that is 3360 in 28,697,814 or 0.012% Adding that together that is a 0.12% chance or about 1 in 833. Top work mate.So these great odds the bookies are giving are actually sh** value.Robbing bastards.
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Post by aghast on Apr 24, 2019 17:26:53 GMT
Right to get back to the OP, I thought I'd take a look at the actual scenarios in which we can be relegated. We either need to lose both of our games or draw one and lose the other. Any more than a point and we'll be definitely safe on at least 52 points. All of the below are assuming there are 3 outcomes for each game and that all are equally likely. IF we lose both (which in itself is 1 in 9)
Wimbledon need to win both: 1 in 9 Southend would need 4 points to move above us: 3 in 9 Wycombe would need to win or draw their last game (having lost to AFCW) 2 in 3 Shrewsbury probably need a point in their last two: 8 in 9 One of Plymouth and Scunthorpe still need to finish above us and they play each other. It is too complicated to go into but only 12 of the 27 scenarios would see one of the them get 51 points or above: 12 in 27 Overall, that is 576 in 531441 or 0.11% IF we get a point in one of the games (2 in 9)
Wimbledon still need to win both: 1 in 9 Southend need to win both: 1 in 9 Wycombe need to win their last game (having lost to AFCW): 1 in 3 Shrewsbury probably need two points from their last two: 5 in 9 One of Plymouth and Scunthorpe still need to finish above us, again too complicated but: 6 in 27 Rochdale would need a point from their last game (having lost to Southend): 2 in 3 Accrington would need a point and this is dependent on how they did against Plymouth and so those 6 scenarios split in 18 scenarios: 14 in 18 Overall, that is 3360 in 28,697,814 or 0.012% Adding that together that is a 0.12% chance or about 1 in 833. I think there's some confusion here about realistic possibilities and statistical likelihoods. If you were to say the chances of picking a King in a pack of cards was 4 in 52, or 1 in 13, then the chances of doing that twice would be 1 in 169. Not realistic and not likely. But those are random draws, where any card is as likely to be picked as any other. Football results are not random. One result influences another, and affects how a team plays in the next match, and how other sides are performing also affects how a team plays. In a non-random, biased draw like the relegation combinations, statistical outcomes based purely on the number of certain possibilities outweighing others is flawed. The set of results which could relegate us is not unlikely. It was unlikely, especially after we beat Bradford, but results since have made it much less unlikely. It's not a random statistical possibility. We and other sides have actually made it more likely.
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Post by socrates on Apr 24, 2019 17:30:46 GMT
Can't we just get a point at Fleetwood? Please? Probably not. Actually I think we will because we’ve been decent away . I bloody hope we do because we don’t stand a pray v Barnsley.
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Post by hardingegas on Apr 24, 2019 23:02:27 GMT
Looking at it, there is the possible scenario of Barnsley needing just a draw in the last game to confirm promotion with us just needing a point also. How would people feel about both sides playing out a draw by passing the ball about for 90 minutes? Against the spirit of the game or perfectly acceptable? Well, the Teds and Coventry did this (at the request of a certain J Hill) to relegate Sunderland in the late 70's.
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Post by BishopstonBRFC on Apr 25, 2019 7:48:01 GMT
Seriously you Rovers supporters are betting on us going down?! Paid for a big chunk of a trip to SE Asia after the pathetic surrender to the Conference. Didn't soften the blow in the slightest but meant I could get away for a bit.
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Post by markczgas on Apr 25, 2019 8:10:38 GMT
Never thought I say this but I will be rooting for Wycombe Saturday, they are at Wimbledon knowing that if they get at least a point they will be safe from the drop which in turn will because of our far superior goal difference mean we are also safe. Im going to be rooting for Rovers to win Saturday - much nicer
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Post by I Voted For Kodos on Apr 25, 2019 9:15:31 GMT
Right to get back to the OP, I thought I'd take a look at the actual scenarios in which we can be relegated. We either need to lose both of our games or draw one and lose the other. Any more than a point and we'll be definitely safe on at least 52 points. All of the below are assuming there are 3 outcomes for each game and that all are equally likely. IF we lose both (which in itself is 1 in 9)
Wimbledon need to win both: 1 in 9 Southend would need 4 points to move above us: 3 in 9 Wycombe would need to win or draw their last game (having lost to AFCW) 2 in 3 Shrewsbury probably need a point in their last two: 8 in 9 One of Plymouth and Scunthorpe still need to finish above us and they play each other. It is too complicated to go into but only 12 of the 27 scenarios would see one of the them get 51 points or above: 12 in 27 Overall, that is 576 in 531441 or 0.11% IF we get a point in one of the games (2 in 9)
Wimbledon still need to win both: 1 in 9 Southend need to win both: 1 in 9 Wycombe need to win their last game (having lost to AFCW): 1 in 3 Shrewsbury probably need two points from their last two: 5 in 9 One of Plymouth and Scunthorpe still need to finish above us, again too complicated but: 6 in 27 Rochdale would need a point from their last game (having lost to Southend): 2 in 3 Accrington would need a point and this is dependent on how they did against Plymouth and so those 6 scenarios split in 18 scenarios: 14 in 18 Overall, that is 3360 in 28,697,814 or 0.012% Adding that together that is a 0.12% chance or about 1 in 833. I think there's some confusion here about realistic possibilities and statistical likelihoods. If you were to say the chances of picking a King in a pack of cards was 4 in 52, or 1 in 13, then the chances of doing that twice would be 1 in 169. Not realistic and not likely. But those are random draws, where any card is as likely to be picked as any other. Football results are not random. One result influences another, and affects how a team plays in the next match, and how other sides are performing also affects how a team plays. In a non-random, biased draw like the relegation combinations, statistical outcomes based purely on the number of certain possibilities outweighing others is flawed. The set of results which could relegate us is not unlikely. It was unlikely, especially after we beat Bradford, but results since have made it much less unlikely. It's not a random statistical possibility. We and other sides have actually made it more likely. Yeah, I agree that my post isn't about probabilities or statistics and I probably shouldn't have talked about percentages or chance. This was more of an exercise in looking at how few scenarios of the millions of possible permutations there are that would see us relegated. However, the permutations will influence the probability, just with actual probabilities attached to the results rather than the simplistic 1 in 3. The chance of relegation is probably lower than in my post due to the fact that all of these teams are at the bottom of the table and have have won less than a third of their games.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2019 9:58:42 GMT
I think there's some confusion here about realistic possibilities and statistical likelihoods. If you were to say the chances of picking a King in a pack of cards was 4 in 52, or 1 in 13, then the chances of doing that twice would be 1 in 169. Not realistic and not likely. But those are random draws, where any card is as likely to be picked as any other. Football results are not random. One result influences another, and affects how a team plays in the next match, and how other sides are performing also affects how a team plays. In a non-random, biased draw like the relegation combinations, statistical outcomes based purely on the number of certain possibilities outweighing others is flawed. The set of results which could relegate us is not unlikely. It was unlikely, especially after we beat Bradford, but results since have made it much less unlikely. It's not a random statistical possibility. We and other sides have actually made it more likely. Yeah, I agree that my post isn't about probabilities or statistics and I probably shouldn't have talked about percentages or chance. This was more of an exercise in looking at how few scenarios of the millions of possible permutations there are that would see us relegated. However, the permutations will influence the probability, just with actual probabilities attached to the results rather than the simplistic 1 in 3. The chance of relegation is probably lower than in my post due to the fact that all of these teams are at the bottom of the table and have have won less than a third of their games. I think that’s the thing ultimately, people are dreaming up scenarios where teams are winning two in the bounce when they have struggled to do that in the prior 44 games. Okay, there are extenuating factors: desperation of the relegation threatened side, teams with nothing to play for etc. but ultimately regardless of whose fixtures teams have left I am sure most teams would rather be us: best GD and a very presentable fixture from which to get the point we need plus in the best position to lose and still stay up if Wycombe can take a point from Wimbledon. That’s not to say there is no threat of relegation, but it does require teams below us to start getting some big results regardless of what we do.
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Post by albaron on Apr 25, 2019 10:25:49 GMT
I don't think we should be relying on any other teams at all. Three points at Fleetwood and we can all sleep safely.
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Post by baggins on Apr 25, 2019 11:03:48 GMT
Never thought I say this but I will be rooting for Wycombe Saturday, they are at Wimbledon knowing that if they get at least a point they will be safe from the drop which in turn will because of our far superior goal difference mean we are also safe. So Wycombe don't lose, regardless of our results for the last 2, we're safe?
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Post by Henbury Gas on Apr 25, 2019 11:05:36 GMT
6 points and a positive goal difference is on its way !
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Post by scoobydoogas on Apr 25, 2019 12:37:56 GMT
Right to get back to the OP, I thought I'd take a look at the actual scenarios in which we can be relegated. We either need to lose both of our games or draw one and lose the other. Any more than a point and we'll be definitely safe on at least 52 points. All of the below are assuming there are 3 outcomes for each game and that all are equally likely. IF we lose both (which in itself is 1 in 9)
Wimbledon need to win both: 1 in 9 Southend would need 4 points to move above us: 3 in 9 Wycombe would need to win or draw their last game (having lost to AFCW) 2 in 3 Shrewsbury probably need a point in their last two: 8 in 9 One of Plymouth and Scunthorpe still need to finish above us and they play each other. It is too complicated to go into but only 12 of the 27 scenarios would see one of the them get 51 points or above: 12 in 27 Overall, that is 576 in 531441 or 0.11% IF we get a point in one of the games (2 in 9)
Wimbledon still need to win both: 1 in 9 Southend need to win both: 1 in 9 Wycombe need to win their last game (having lost to AFCW): 1 in 3 Shrewsbury probably need two points from their last two: 5 in 9 One of Plymouth and Scunthorpe still need to finish above us, again too complicated but: 6 in 27 Rochdale would need a point from their last game (having lost to Southend): 2 in 3 Accrington would need a point and this is dependent on how they did against Plymouth and so those 6 scenarios split in 18 scenarios: 14 in 18 Overall, that is 3360 in 28,697,814 or 0.012% Adding that together that is a 0.12% chance or about 1 in 833. I think there's some confusion here about realistic possibilities and statistical likelihoods. If you were to say the chances of picking a King in a pack of cards was 4 in 52, or 1 in 13, then the chances of doing that twice would be 1 in 169. Not realistic and not likely. But those are random draws, where any card is as likely to be picked as any other. Football results are not random. One result influences another, and affects how a team plays in the next match, and how other sides are performing also affects how a team plays. In a non-random, biased draw like the relegation combinations, statistical outcomes based purely on the number of certain possibilities outweighing others is flawed. The set of results which could relegate us is not unlikely. It was unlikely, especially after we beat Bradford, but results since have made it much less unlikely. It's not a random statistical possibility. We and other sides have actually made it more likely. When dealing with statistics it's very useful to know the rules being applied.
For example, your deck of cards example is based on the king that has been drawn being put back in the deck before the 2nd draw is made. Hence you have a 4/52 chance followed by a 4/52 chance which does indeed equate to 1/169 (0.005917).
However, the rule may be that a card, once selected, is not replaced for the 2nd draw so you end up with 4/52 followed by 3/51 which is 0.004524.
I'm not trying to make a point here - merely highlighting how easy it is to read different things from statistics if the rules are not clearly defined.
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Post by baggins on Apr 25, 2019 13:00:05 GMT
I think there's some confusion here about realistic possibilities and statistical likelihoods. If you were to say the chances of picking a King in a pack of cards was 4 in 52, or 1 in 13, then the chances of doing that twice would be 1 in 169. Not realistic and not likely. But those are random draws, where any card is as likely to be picked as any other. Football results are not random. One result influences another, and affects how a team plays in the next match, and how other sides are performing also affects how a team plays. In a non-random, biased draw like the relegation combinations, statistical outcomes based purely on the number of certain possibilities outweighing others is flawed. The set of results which could relegate us is not unlikely. It was unlikely, especially after we beat Bradford, but results since have made it much less unlikely. It's not a random statistical possibility. We and other sides have actually made it more likely. When dealing with statistics it's very useful to know the rules being applied.
For example, your deck of cards example is based on the king that has been drawn being put back in the deck before the 2nd draw is made. Hence you have a 4/52 chance followed by a 4/52 chance which does indeed equate to 1/169 (0.005917).
However, the rule may be that a card, once selected, is not replaced for the 2nd draw so you end up with 4/52 followed by 3/51 which is 0.004524.
I'm not trying to make a point here - merely highlighting how easy it is to read different things from statistics if the rules are not clearly defined.
Look out, analyst on the forum.
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