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Post by scoobydoogas on Apr 25, 2019 13:20:56 GMT
When dealing with statistics it's very useful to know the rules being applied.
For example, your deck of cards example is based on the king that has been drawn being put back in the deck before the 2nd draw is made. Hence you have a 4/52 chance followed by a 4/52 chance which does indeed equate to 1/169 (0.005917).
However, the rule may be that a card, once selected, is not replaced for the 2nd draw so you end up with 4/52 followed by 3/51 which is 0.004524.
I'm not trying to make a point here - merely highlighting how easy it is to read different things from statistics if the rules are not clearly defined.
Look out, analyst on the forum. Sorry, I try to control it but sometimes I can't help it. It's a curse but it pays the mortgage  |
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Post by wertongas on Apr 25, 2019 15:38:43 GMT
Never thought I say this but I will be rooting for Wycombe Saturday, they are at Wimbledon knowing that if they get at least a point they will be safe from the drop which in turn will because of our far superior goal difference mean we are also safe. So Wycombe don't lose, regardless of our results for the last 2, we're safe? yes, because Plymouth and Scunthorpe have to play each other at least one of those two teams will land up below us. So if Wimbledon don't beat Wycombe or Southend loose to Rochdale we will be safe. if Scunthorpe fail to beat Bradford, or Southend fail to beat Rochdale we are also most likely to be safe as Southend will have to beat Sunderland on the last day . But a draw for us at Fleetwood we see us safe, my view of it is we should not worry about the other teams but concentrate on winning the Fleetwood game. |
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Post by Gasshole on Apr 26, 2019 0:07:04 GMT
I think the season we dropped out of the League, there were 39 different permutations of results , 38 of those would have kept us up. Relagation is not an option. #lining my shorts Nope. 3 games mattered - us, Northampton and Wycombe which means there were 27 permutations. Only results to see us down were Wycombe W, Rovers L and Northampton W or D so 2 permutations. 2/27 = 1 in 13.5. Unlikely but nowhere near as unlikely as you suggest and nowhere near as unlikely as the scenarios this time around. Good to know. We should be ok then. |
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Post by Topper Gas on Apr 26, 2019 7:51:52 GMT
Nope. 3 games mattered - us, Northampton and Wycombe which means there were 27 permutations. Only results to see us down were Wycombe W, Rovers L and Northampton W or D so 2 permutations. 2/27 = 1 in 13.5. Unlikely but nowhere near as unlikely as you suggest and nowhere near as unlikely as the scenarios this time around. Good to know. We should be ok then. I wouldn't get to confident as those permutations weren't until to the last Saturday, if the results don't go in our favour tomorrow it could well be Wimbledon W, Rovers L, Southend W or D sees us relegated which looks worryingly familiar! We really need to either beat Fleetwood or, more likely, two out of either Southend (at Rochdale), Plymouth (at Accy) to lose or Wimbledon (v Wycombe) & Scunthorpe (v Bradford) to fail to win tomorrow in order to be safe. |
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Post by Fetch on Apr 26, 2019 12:09:08 GMT
Never thought I say this but I will be rooting for Wycombe Saturday, they are at Wimbledon knowing that if they get at least a point they will be safe from the drop which in turn will because of our far superior goal difference mean we are also safe. So Wycombe don't lose, regardless of our results for the last 2, we're safe? Don't forget we needed Wycombe to take at least a point off Accrington and Oxford in their final two games in 15/16 and they lost both games. We can't be relying on them again. |
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Post by baggins on Apr 26, 2019 12:10:36 GMT
So Wycombe don't lose, regardless of our results for the last 2, we're safe? Don't forget we needed Wycombe to take at least a point off Accrington and Oxford in their final two games in 15/16 and they lost both games. We can't be relying on them again. Are you purposely trying to make me sh1t myself even more this weekend? |
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Post by Antonio Fargas on Apr 26, 2019 13:52:05 GMT
Don't forget we needed Wycombe to take at least a point off Accrington and Oxford in their final two games in 15/16 and they lost both games. We can't be relying on them again. Are you purposely trying to make me sh1t myself even more this weekend? Wycombe aren't safe yet (they're less safe than us) so they'll be doing themselves a favour, not us. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2019 14:10:28 GMT
Good to know. We should be ok then. I wouldn't get to confident as those permutations weren't until to the last Saturday, if the results don't go in our favour tomorrow it could well be Wimbledon W, Rovers L, Southend W or D sees us relegated which looks worryingly familiar! We really need to either beat Fleetwood or, more likely, two out of either Southend (at Rochdale), Plymouth (at Accy) to lose or Wimbledon (v Wycombe) & Scunthorpe (v Bradford) to fail to win tomorrow in order to be safe. I think the easiest way to look at it is this... If we get 2 more points, we're safe. If we get 1 more point, just two of these need to happen for us to be safe: Wimbledon don't win both games. Scunthorpe don't win both games. Plymouth don't win both games. Southend don't win both games. Wycombe take a maximum of 1 point. Shrewsbury take a maximum of 1 point. Rochdale lose both games. Accrington lose both games. If we get no more points, just two of these need to happen for us to be safe: Wimbledon don't win both games. Scunthorpe don't win both games. Plymouth don't take at least 4 points from their games. Southend don't take at least 4 points from their games. Wycombe fail to get another point. Shrewsbury fail to get another point. Er, maybe it's.not simple after all! But we'll be fine. |
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