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Post by richhertford on Jan 30, 2022 15:04:02 GMT
I think if we can get 9 points out of those games it's really on Sutton, Oldham, Mannsfield. 9 points? Tough ask. Tough but now some are considering it. Happy times.
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Post by richhertford on Jan 30, 2022 15:06:09 GMT
I hope we don't live to regret the Colchester & Salford results We have moved on from those. We are learning and getting better. It’s in our hands now.
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Post by Colyton Gas on Jan 30, 2022 15:07:51 GMT
Attachment DeletedMet a talking parrot called Casper this morning.Reckons we'll make the play-offs but wouldn't be drawn on the rumours of a new South Stand tent for next season.
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Post by justin blue on Jan 30, 2022 16:00:08 GMT
We will need something like 70/71 points to sneak into the playoffs which is about the most realistic option. Which would mean winning another ten more games and not losing more than another four. Then hoping we win the playoffs.
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Post by pucklegas on Jan 30, 2022 17:24:02 GMT
I think we have a part to play in this create an electric atmosphere, and it will enhance the match day experience and results, walked out really chuffed after Azzer collins scored, after the Somersault just had Hammertime song in my head.
Think we can do this we should not fear anyone UTG
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Post by gasandelectricity on Jan 30, 2022 19:43:09 GMT
Happy Sunday, have some stats. | Pts for 3rd | | | Pts for 7th | | | | Required | Our Gap from today | PPG Required | Our Gap from today | Our Gap | PPG Required | 2021 | 79 | 43 | 2.05 | 73 | 37 | 1.76 | 2019 | 79 | 43 | 2.05 | 71 | 35 | 1.67 | 2018 | 84 | 48 | 2.29 | 75 | 39 | 1.86 | 2017 | 85 | 49 | 2.33 | 70 | 34 | 1.62 | 2016 | 85 | 49 | 2.33 | 75 | 39 | 1.86 | 2015 | 85 | 49 | 2.33 | 71 | 35 | 1.67 | 2014 | 81 | 45 | 2.14 | 71 | 35 | 1.67 | 2013 | 76 | 40 | 1.90 | 69 | 33 | 1.57 | 2012 | 84 | 48 | 2.29 | 72 | 36 | 1.71 | 2011 | 80 | 44 | 2.10 | 68 | 32 | 1.52 | Mean | 81.8 | 45.8 | 2.18 | 71.5 | 35.5 | 1.69 | Median | 82.5 | 46.5 | 2.21 | 71 | 35 | 1.67 | Max | 85 | 49 | 2.33 | 75 | 39 | 1.86 | Min | 76 | 40 | 1.90 | 68 | 32 | 1.52 |
Some big caveats, this is to achieve 3rd or 7th. In reality, 4th and 8th may have been a significant number of points behind but had to choose a sensible way to cut this. Also, 2020 ditched out in favour of 2011 as it was a crap season to base any analysis off, even if you prorated it back up. What do we need to get to make the autosSo a big ask for autos. We'd need between 76 and 85 points but realistically 80+. So we'd need to be getting about 2.1 PPG to even think of it. We'd need about 46 points, so probably need to win about 14 of the remaining games to even contemplate it. Over the equivalent period in 2015-16 we had 13 wins from the last 21 so we'd need to better that by one or hope for a number of draws. What about the playoffs72 odd would generally get us in the playoffs. So we'd need to double our points haul to date over 4 less games. That was enough in 7 out of 10 seasons. So we need at least 10 wins, and to be resolute and not drop points through losses. I will however leave you with an interesting stat.Our current form over 6 is 13 from 18. 2.17 points per game. Extrapolate the unrounded value over 21 remaining games leaves you with 45.5 points. A season ending 81.5 on where we are today. Just shy of the mean amount to get us automatic promotion, but enough in 5 out of the last 10 seasons worth considering as part of this analysis. However, stats like that are of course heavily fanciful Either way, to make something of this season we can only afford about 3 more losses and we have to absolutely go for it guns ablaze.
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Post by richhertford on Jan 30, 2022 20:33:00 GMT
Happy Sunday, have some stats. | Pts for 3rd | | | Pts for 7th | | | | Required | Our Gap from today | PPG Required | Our Gap from today | Our Gap | PPG Required | 2021 | 79 | 43 | 2.05 | 73 | 37 | 1.76 | 2019 | 79 | 43 | 2.05 | 71 | 35 | 1.67 | 2018 | 84 | 48 | 2.29 | 75 | 39 | 1.86 | 2017 | 85 | 49 | 2.33 | 70 | 34 | 1.62 | 2016 | 85 | 49 | 2.33 | 75 | 39 | 1.86 | 2015 | 85 | 49 | 2.33 | 71 | 35 | 1.67 | 2014 | 81 | 45 | 2.14 | 71 | 35 | 1.67 | 2013 | 76 | 40 | 1.90 | 69 | 33 | 1.57 | 2012 | 84 | 48 | 2.29 | 72 | 36 | 1.71 | 2011 | 80 | 44 | 2.10 | 68 | 32 | 1.52 | Mean | 81.8 | 45.8 | 2.18 | 71.5 | 35.5 | 1.69 | Median | 82.5 | 46.5 | 2.21 | 71 | 35 | 1.67 | Max | 85 | 49 | 2.33 | 75 | 39 | 1.86 | Min | 76 | 40 | 1.90 | 68 | 32 | 1.52 |
Some big caveats, this is to achieve 3rd or 7th. In reality, 4th and 8th may have been a significant number of points behind but had to choose a sensible way to cut this. Also, 2020 ditched out in favour of 2011 as it was a crap season to base any analysis off, even if you prorated it back up. What do we need to get to make the autosSo a big ask for autos. We'd need between 76 and 85 points but realistically 80+. So we'd need to be getting about 2.1 PPG to even think of it. We'd need about 46 points, so probably need to win about 14 of the remaining games to even contemplate it. Over the equivalent period in 2015-16 we had 13 wins from the last 21 so we'd need to better that by one or hope for a number of draws. What about the playoffs72 odd would generally get us in the playoffs. So we'd need to double our points haul to date over 4 less games. That was enough in 7 out of 10 seasons. So we need at least 10 wins, and to be resolute and not drop points through losses. I will however leave you with an interesting stat.Our current form over 6 is 13 from 18. 2.17 points per game. Extrapolate the unrounded value over 21 remaining games leaves you with 45.5 points. A season ending 81.5 on where we are today. Just shy of the mean amount to get us automatic promotion, but enough in 5 out of the last 10 seasons worth considering as part of this analysis. However, stats like that are of course heavily fanciful Either way, to make something of this season we can only afford about 3 more losses and we have to absolutely go for it guns ablaze. Love these stats. Gives us all a reality check but also some hope.
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Post by basel on Jan 30, 2022 21:27:54 GMT
I think FGR are too far ahead.I won't be surprised if our form in this second half of the season is better than theirs,but they would have to drop alot of points.
2nd,3rd or a play off place is ours I believe.
2nd or 3rd possible. Play off place minimum.
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Post by 2nd May 1990 on Jan 31, 2022 9:00:13 GMT
What that tells us is that the play-offs are very achievable from here and that would be a great achievement given our start to the season.
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Post by richhertford on Jan 31, 2022 10:27:16 GMT
Aaron Collins: Looks like the squad are on their own ground-breaking bus.
“The last 10 games we’re up there in the top five for form and we’re starting to believe. The gaffer as well, he’s said the whole season we’ve got to start believing.
“I think now with a full-strength squad, we’re believing, although we still have some people coming in and others going out and me playing as a nine, but that’s what we’ve got to do.
“We have to keep working hard as a team and the results will come and at the end of the season it’s all about where we are.”
Winners in life have belief in what is possible. The team is so ready for this charge up the table. If we do well in next four games, our belief will be off the scale. Hard not to get wrapped up in this enthusiasm. Once we get in the play off positions , it will be interesting to see how close we are to the automatic places. What a time to support Rovers.
Jump on board the bus. Enjoy the ride.
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Post by Gas_Quarters on Jan 31, 2022 11:14:47 GMT
I’m optimistic given that until the last couple we’ve had a tough run of games and still picked up a good points tally over the last 10-12 games. The 2 games against Sutton and the other against Mansfield will be a real test of where we are going to finish as I think they are probably the in form teams in the league along with us.
Playoffs has definitely got to be the aim. UTG!
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Post by richhertford on Feb 2, 2022 9:38:57 GMT
First bus is full. The excitement is building. We have been here a few times but this time it feels very different. A high press, energetic midfield can fire us up the table. I’m beginning to dream that automatics might be possible. If we win next four games a few more will be dreaming. Hope is what keeps my enthusiasm alive. Right now, I have lots of hope. Nearly 3 out of four gaschat voters have said we will get to play offs or better. When at games the feeling is even more positive than on here. Exciting times for all.
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Kipper
Reserve Team
Posts: 438
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Post by Kipper on Feb 2, 2022 10:40:51 GMT
I think it is fair to say the club cannot afford a lapse of form lasting four or five games.
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Post by SleepyGas on Feb 2, 2022 13:19:13 GMT
After last night's games; this was the first time I have looked at the league table and genuinely thought we might have a chance of finishing in the play-offs. 7 points adrift, but with games in hand. That said; our recent games have been against poor or out of form sides and, whilst you can only beat the teams you are up against, we only really scraped past those (or drew as was the case with Swindon). We have some HUGE tests ahead with home games against Exeter, Mansfield and Sutton coming up. Also Sutton and Newport away. What do the bookies think? Well Bet365 have us at: 250/1 to win the league (FGR very clear favourites at 1/8) 14/1 to be promoted 5/1 to finish in the top 7
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Post by Tilly's Thighs on Feb 2, 2022 14:23:47 GMT
Aaron Collins: Looks like the squad are on their own ground-breaking bus. “The last 10 games we’re up there in the top five for form and we’re starting to believe. The gaffer as well, he’s said the whole season we’ve got to start believing. “I think now with a full-strength squad, we’re believing, although we still have some people coming in and others going out and me playing as a nine, but that’s what we’ve got to do. “We have to keep working hard as a team and the results will come and at the end of the season it’s all about where we are.” Winners in life have belief in what is possible. The team is so ready for this charge up the table. If we do well in next four games, our belief will be off the scale. Hard not to get wrapped up in this enthusiasm. Once we get in the play off positions , it will be interesting to see how close we are to the automatic places. What a time to support Rovers. Jump on board the bus. Enjoy the ride. The players have been on their own bus for most of the season, it just needed the stars to align in their favour to put on the performances they knew that they were capable of. After the Exeter away debacle, back in August, I received this message: "I’m glad you and Steve could come down. Such a disappointment we weren’t able to put on a show for you, but stick with us because I think when the main body of the squad is fully fit we will be a different animal!" The players believed in themselves, even back then, and had faith in what they could achieve - now we're seeing it! I voted for the play-offs option, as I think that is certainly achieveable by this squad. Please keep the bus serviced for the end of season tour!!
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Post by gasandelectricity on Feb 2, 2022 15:57:41 GMT
First bus is full. The excitement is building. We have been here a few times but this time it feels very different. A high press, energetic midfield can fire us up the table. I’m beginning to dream that automatics might be possible. If we win next four games a few more will be dreaming. Hope is what keeps my enthusiasm alive. Right now, I have lots of hope. Nearly 3 out of four gaschat voters have said we will get to play offs or better. When at games the feeling is even more positive than on here. Exciting times for all. I hope first aren’t running this service it’ll never turn up!
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Post by gasandelectricity on Feb 2, 2022 15:58:45 GMT
In all seriousness I reckon that last place in the autos is up for grabs.
The gap between 3rd and 7th is not big at all and there’s plenty of games in hand.
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Post by richhertford on Feb 2, 2022 16:05:32 GMT
In all seriousness I reckon that last place in the autos is up for grabs. The gap between 3rd and 7th is not big at all and there’s plenty of games in hand. Certainly worth aiming at. This team have that never say die attitude, so we don’t write them off. It’s certainly possible.
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Post by yattongas on Feb 2, 2022 16:07:41 GMT
In all seriousness I reckon that last place in the autos is up for grabs. The gap between 3rd and 7th is not big at all and there’s plenty of games in hand. Was just gonna say this , 3rd place should be our target and it’s more than achievable. PS Sod the playoffs, great fun but too nerve racking and element of luck needed.
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Post by Bolders on Feb 2, 2022 16:09:49 GMT
You lot need a defeat to bring you down a peg. X
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