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Post by miamigas on Feb 22, 2022 10:26:46 GMT
As a side note going on last season's league table. we would now need 9 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats to make the playoffs. Doesn't sound so unrealistic does it? So, we need 5 defeats to make the playoffs? Hmmm, if we win all our games with 5 to go I can’t see Joey throwing the last 5 so unfortunately maybe the autos are what we should be setting our sights on. UTG!
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Post by baggins on Feb 22, 2022 12:13:34 GMT
As a side note going on last season's league table. we would now need 9 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats to make the playoffs. Doesn't sound so unrealistic does it? So, we need 5 defeats to make the playoffs? Hmmm, if we win all our games with 5 to go I can’t see Joey throwing the last 5 so unfortunately maybe the autos are what we should be setting our sights on. UTG! Automatics? Nah, let's just go for playoffs.
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Post by Fetch on Feb 22, 2022 13:33:29 GMT
I don't think we are gonna win 11 of our last 15. Bolton went on a run akin to ours in 2007, it's gonna take something special for us to hit that kind of form.
Impossible? No. Very difficult? Yes.
That said I'm not convinced we'll need as many points as that to make playoffs. Win 8/9 of our last 15 and depending how many draws we pick up we should be thereabouts.
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Mar 2, 2022 7:41:27 GMT
We have exactly the same points as Bolton did at this stage last year. 44, Both W12 D8 L10. Their goal difference was - 2, we are on +3. Bolton then W11 D2 and L3 of their remaining games to go up with 79 points. Interestingly teams are placed fairly similar to last season. We're still matching Bolton from this time last year. They were also on 51 points from 33 games played but only +1, we are +6. In the 15/16 season when we were promoted in this league, we had 53 points at this stage.
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Post by wallywalters on Mar 2, 2022 8:19:06 GMT
We have exactly the same points as Bolton did at this stage last year. 44, Both W12 D8 L10. Their goal difference was - 2, we are on +3. Bolton then W11 D2 and L3 of their remaining games to go up with 79 points. Interestingly teams are placed fairly similar to last season. We're still matching Bolton from this time last year. They were also on 51 points from 33 games played but only +1, we are +6. In the 15/16 season when we were promoted in this league, we had 53 points at this stage. The trouble is though ggmi Bolton we’re promoted on 79 points which is extremely low for automatics. I think we’d need 80plus which is the norm. We only scraped it with 85 points last time.
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Mar 2, 2022 8:45:29 GMT
We're still matching Bolton from this time last year. They were also on 51 points from 33 games played but only +1, we are +6. In the 15/16 season when we were promoted in this league, we had 53 points at this stage. The trouble is though ggmi Bolton we’re promoted on 79 points which is extremely low for automatics. I think we’d need 80plus which is the norm. We only scraped it with 85 points last time. True but it could be lowish again. Other than FGR it seems very open. I think 7th place though might have a higher points total than average. The 2 teams I'm worried about are Exeter and Mansfield. At this stage in 15/16 we were 11 points off automatic places with 1 game in hand.
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Post by percy on Mar 2, 2022 9:16:06 GMT
The trouble is though ggmi Bolton we’re promoted on 79 points which is extremely low for automatics. I think we’d need 80plus which is the norm. We only scraped it with 85 points last time. True but it could be lowish again. Other than FGR it seems very open. I think 7th place though might have a higher points total than average. The 2 teams I'm worried about are Exeter and Mansfield. At this stage in 15/16 we were 11 points off automatic places with 1 game in hand. Agree GGMI. Think top 7 (probably 9) will have higher than average for play offs, but 2nd and 3rd be lower than the norm. I reckon 1st - 91 2nd - 81 3rd - 80 4-7th - 75-79
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Post by phillistine on Mar 2, 2022 9:18:26 GMT
We're still matching Bolton from this time last year. They were also on 51 points from 33 games played but only +1, we are +6. In the 15/16 season when we were promoted in this league, we had 53 points at this stage. The trouble is though ggmi Bolton we’re promoted on 79 points which is extremely low for automatics. I think we’d need 80plus which is the norm. We only scraped it with 85 points last time. if you add the points from the last 13 games to the remaining 13 then we will end up with 78 points. Regardless , Exeter City and Mansfield must be favourites for the remaining spots unless 1 of them loses their way on the run in . Exeter have 8 of their remaining 15 fixtures against teams vying for promotion - including Mansfield this friday. (53%) Mansfield have 7 of their remaining 15 fixtures against promotion seeking teams (46%) Gas have 6 of 13 (46%). Northampton have 4 of 12,(33%) , Tranmere have 5 of12 (41%) Swindon have 4 of 13 (30%) Sutton have 5 of 12.( 41%) Port Vale have 6 of 14 (43%) Salford City have 5 of 14. (36%). Sadly we statitistically have the second hardest run in if teams run true to League position -do they ever? You could argue that makes us well and truly in charge of our own destiny as we can take points of our promotion rivals. Make of all that what you will but the fact that we are so close bearing in mind that we were 25 matches in before we started to show any real signs of form gives me hope going forward. i am not a statistic man normally - but its amazing what you do whilst you are waiting for a plumber to arrive
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Post by warehamgas on Mar 2, 2022 21:51:22 GMT
The trouble is though ggmi Bolton we’re promoted on 79 points which is extremely low for automatics. I think we’d need 80plus which is the norm. We only scraped it with 85 points last time. if you add the points from the last 13 games to the remaining 13 then we will end up with 78 points. Regardless , Exeter City and Mansfield must be favourites for the remaining spots unless 1 of them loses their way on the run in . Exeter have 8 of their remaining 15 fixtures against teams vying for promotion - including Mansfield this friday. (53%) Mansfield have 7 of their remaining 15 fixtures against promotion seeking teams (46%) Gas have 6 of 13 (46%). Northampton have 4 of 12,(33%) , Tranmere have 5 of12 (41%) Swindon have 4 of 13 (30%) Sutton have 5 of 12.( 41%) Port Vale have 6 of 14 (43%) Salford City have 5 of 14. (36%). Sadly we statitistically have the second hardest run in if teams run true to League position -do they ever? You could argue that makes us well and truly in charge of our own destiny as we can take points of our promotion rivals. Make of all that what you will but the fact that we are so close bearing in mind that we were 25 matches in before we started to show any real signs of form gives me hope going forward. i am not a statistic man normally - but its amazing what you do whilst you are waiting for a plumber to arrive Great stuff phillistine. When you put it all down like that it looks positive. It makes a good thread so it will be interesting to see how it pans out. Injuries, loss of form, referees being inconsistent, events beyond our control and other stuff will throw a spanner in the works. Two weeks ago I didn’t think we’d be in with a chance of the play offs let alone the top 3. Now I’m not so sure and am happy to have been wrong. Still not convinced we’ll make it but we do have a chance now. The difference I think is that this team have shown themselves to be a very fit team who have been able to do the Saturday- Tuesday- Saturday cycle with little sign of their tiredness affecting them. It’s been pretty much the same 11 to start except last night. Management team and staff need to take the credit for managing that. From now on despite it being 13 matches to go we just have to take it one match at a time which is what I think JB has been doing. Win it and move on. April looks a tough month with what may well be some six-pointer matches against promotion rivals. But we have to get there first on a good position. We can’t get promotion in March but we can lose it. They’ve done well since Christmas and we just carry on. So on to Saturday beat Newport and then we have two matches which are winnable. Keep winning and it put us in a great position. UTG!
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Post by percy on Mar 3, 2022 10:52:29 GMT
As obvious as it sounds, I really like JB's philosophy of win often, draw occasionally, lose rarely. What it is really saying is - when you lose (and you will) move on and get on with what's ahead of you. Like we did after Oldham. Don't let it become a habit. If we can do that til the end of the season, the play offs at least will be there for us.
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Post by Quarters on Mar 3, 2022 13:32:07 GMT
Gerry Francis said make sure we don't lose two on the trot. 5 defeats that season
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Post by aghast on Mar 3, 2022 17:33:49 GMT
As obvious as it sounds, I really like JB's philosophy of win often, draw occasionally, lose rarely. What it is really saying is - when you lose (and you will) move on and get on with what's ahead of you. Like we did after Oldham. Don't let it become a habit. If we can do that til the end of the season, the play offs at least will be there for us. It's a good strategy. So good, in fact, that 91 other clubs aspire to it.
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Mar 3, 2022 21:00:59 GMT
As obvious as it sounds, I really like JB's philosophy of win often, draw occasionally, lose rarely. What it is really saying is - when you lose (and you will) move on and get on with what's ahead of you. Like we did after Oldham. Don't let it become a habit. If we can do that til the end of the season, the play offs at least will be there for us. It's a good strategy. So good, in fact, that 91 other clubs aspire to it. I'm just glad it's changed from lose often draw occasionally win rarely from Last year🙈
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Mar 19, 2022 22:02:08 GMT
Time to bring this back up...
Now 1 point behind Bolton's points tall from this time last season but we have +11 instead of Bolton's +5.
We have 5 points less than we did when we last went up from L2.
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Post by wallywalters on Mar 19, 2022 22:31:40 GMT
They lost 3 of their last 8 games too and still Got promoted. Still maintain they were very fortunate to go up on 79 points. If We lose 3 of next 8 we won’t make top 3. I reckon we need minimum of 6 wins to put us in with a small shout.
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Mar 19, 2022 22:37:56 GMT
They lost 3 of their last 8 games too and still Got promoted. Still maintain they were very fortunate to go up on 79 points. If We lose 3 of next 8 we won’t make top 3. I reckon we need minimum of 6 wins to put us in with a small shout. I'd be surprised if we lost 3 of our last though to be honest on current form.
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Post by bluebiro on Mar 20, 2022 17:03:55 GMT
They lost 3 of their last 8 games too and still Got promoted. Still maintain they were very fortunate to go up on 79 points. If We lose 3 of next 8 we won’t make top 3. I reckon we need minimum of 6 wins to put us in with a small shout. if we are only in it with a small shout then the teams below us on less points have no chance.
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Post by wallywalters on Mar 20, 2022 17:34:07 GMT
They lost 3 of their last 8 games too and still Got promoted. Still maintain they were very fortunate to go up on 79 points. If We lose 3 of next 8 we won’t make top 3. I reckon we need minimum of 6 wins to put us in with a small shout. if we are only in it with a small shout then the teams below us on less points have no chance. I wouldn’t call 6 wins and ending up on 81 points a massive or guaranteed Shout of automatic would you? Maybe Wel split the difference and call it a medium chance of top 3. Your forgetting portvale and Mansfield who are below us have quite a few games in hand on us so I don’t get your logic there.
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Post by dudelebowski on Mar 20, 2022 17:46:35 GMT
May only be 8-11 games left for every club, but so many of the top 9 have to play each other, absolutely anything could happen.
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2022 11:27:07 GMT
👀👀 We actually managed to better them by 1 point. What a turnaround!
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