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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2019 16:16:43 GMT
The other countries will be just as keen to strike a trade deal. It's not just UK exports, but also their exports that will be affected. It really shouldn't be a problem. Even in that scenario, we are still burning 60 deals pointlessly and will have to renegotiate new deals most likely from a weaker position These sixty deals........how many are with large countries? How many are with Bongo Bongo countries? You deal with the big ones first. The smaller ones, where those countries are desperate for a deal, could be completed in no time at all.
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2019 16:37:26 GMT
The other countries will be just as keen to strike a trade deal. It's not just UK exports, but also their exports that will be affected. It really shouldn't be a problem. Even in that scenario, we are still burning 60 deals pointlessly and will have to renegotiate new deals most likely from a weaker position Nobby is right, we will in all likelihood strike trade deals with most, if not all, of the countries already in a trade treaty with the EU. But the point is, as you quite correctly say, how long will this take? Will it be on equal terms to what we have now and if not concluded reasonably quickly, what will be the total aggregate cost to our economy. The BoE say 9%, the Leave group will not comment, citing "a period of adjustment". That's either "We dont know", or if we think we do it's bad and we wont tell you. The thing is there will be an economic cost, what's the gain for paying that cost?
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Post by e4bandrobinstubbs on May 28, 2019 16:49:05 GMT
Lib Dems and Greens are new names for Communism. Ask again..you were taking the water, right? Absolutely not. Read their manifestos. Remain is only a small part. Saving the environment I agree with. The rest is communism.
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Post by e4bandrobinstubbs on May 28, 2019 16:58:28 GMT
If you are feeling frustrated and generally hacked off with everyone from May to Alastair Cambell to BJ to Subry to Lucas to Farage and beyond, just go to the Monster Raving Loony Party website and read their manifesto(s). I challenge anyone not to feel better after reading. Pure British eccentric humour. Brilliant.
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2019 17:22:29 GMT
If you are feeling frustrated and generally hacked off with everyone from May to Alastair Cambell to BJ to Subry to Lucas to Farage and beyond, just go to the Monster Raving Loony Party website and read their manifesto(s). I challenge anyone not to feel better after reading. Pure British eccentric humour. Brilliant. I voted for them once. On the grounds my historical choice had no chance (and I no longer agreed with them) and any vote was a dilution of the loony right wing.
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2019 17:39:11 GMT
Even in that scenario, we are still burning 60 deals pointlessly and will have to renegotiate new deals most likely from a weaker position These sixty deals........how many are with large countries? How many are with Bongo Bongo countries? You deal with the big ones first. The smaller ones, where those countries are desperate for a deal, could be completed in no time at all. Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Canada, West African States, East African Community Members, Vietnam, South Africa, Pacific States, Columbia, Peru, Cote Divoire, Central American States, Mexico, Chile, Egypt, Israel, Georgia, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Ukraine. Australia is being negotiated, as is America. I haven't listed them all. But in reality you must get the fact that other than Russia (really? Could we?) And China (really? Even our security service is jumpy) the EU has pretty much got it covered.
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on May 28, 2019 19:03:34 GMT
Thought this may be useful. Below is a list showcasing 15 of United Kingdom’s top trading partners in terms of export sales. That is, these are countries that imported the most UK shipments by dollar value during 2018. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total UK exports. United States: US$64.4 billion (13.3% of total UK exports) Germany: $47 billion (9.7%) Netherlands: $33.3 billion (6.9%) France: $31.8 billion (6.6%) Ireland: $28.3 billion (5.9%) China: $27.5 billion (5.7%) Switzerland: $25.4 billion (5.2%) Belgium: $19.1 billion (4%) Italy: $14.1 billion (2.9%) Spain: $13.9 billion (2.9%) Hong Kong: $10.3 billion (2.1%) United Arab Emirates: $10 billion (2.1%) Turkey: $9.5 billion (2%) Japan: $8.3 billion (1.7%) South Korea: $7.8 billion (1.6%) Approaching three-quarters (72.5%) of UK exports in 2018 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners. www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-partners/
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2019 19:20:18 GMT
Thought this may be useful. Below is a list showcasing 15 of United Kingdom’s top trading partners in terms of export sales. That is, these are countries that imported the most UK shipments by dollar value during 2018. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total UK exports. United States: US$64.4 billion (13.3% of total UK exports) Germany: $47 billion (9.7%) Netherlands: $33.3 billion (6.9%) France: $31.8 billion (6.6%) Ireland: $28.3 billion (5.9%) China: $27.5 billion (5.7%) Switzerland: $25.4 billion (5.2%) Belgium: $19.1 billion (4%) Italy: $14.1 billion (2.9%) Spain: $13.9 billion (2.9%) Hong Kong: $10.3 billion (2.1%) United Arab Emirates: $10 billion (2.1%) Turkey: $9.5 billion (2%) Japan: $8.3 billion (1.7%) South Korea: $7.8 billion (1.6%) Approaching three-quarters (72.5%) of UK exports in 2018 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners. www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-partners/So, only really six that are important, USA, EU, Hong Kong, UAE, Japan & South Korea.
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2019 20:53:11 GMT
Thought this may be useful. Below is a list showcasing 15 of United Kingdom’s top trading partners in terms of export sales. That is, these are countries that imported the most UK shipments by dollar value during 2018. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total UK exports. United States: US$64.4 billion (13.3% of total UK exports) Germany: $47 billion (9.7%) Netherlands: $33.3 billion (6.9%) France: $31.8 billion (6.6%) Ireland: $28.3 billion (5.9%) China: $27.5 billion (5.7%) Switzerland: $25.4 billion (5.2%) Belgium: $19.1 billion (4%) Italy: $14.1 billion (2.9%) Spain: $13.9 billion (2.9%) Hong Kong: $10.3 billion (2.1%) United Arab Emirates: $10 billion (2.1%) Turkey: $9.5 billion (2%) Japan: $8.3 billion (1.7%) South Korea: $7.8 billion (1.6%) Approaching three-quarters (72.5%) of UK exports in 2018 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners. www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-partners/So, only really six that are important, USA, EU, Hong Kong, UAE, Japan & South Korea. Do the math. 27.5% of our total exports is a significant amount of money. I would say that's really important.
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Post by stuart1974 on May 28, 2019 22:12:14 GMT
Just to complete the picture, our major imports: Germany $89.23B 2017 China $59.78B 2017 United States $58.75B 2017 Netherlands $51.77B 2017 France $36.38B 2017 Belgium $32.10B 2017 Italy $24.86B 2017 Norway $23.14B 2017 Spain $20.16B 2017 Ireland $18.80B 2017 Canada $14.85B 2017 Poland $13.57B 2017 Japan $13.09B 2017 Switzerland $11.97B 2017 Turkey $9.98B 2017 India $9.17B 2017 Sweden $9.01B 2017 South Africa $8.37B 2017 Czech Republic $7.27B 2017 Russia $7.22B 2017 Denmark $6.45B 2017 Vietnam $5.41B 2017 Hong Kong $5.35B 2017 South Korea $5.30B 2017 Australia $4.89B 2017 tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/imports-by-countryJust to give a benchmark, Germany represents 14%, China and US about 9.5% each. Total EU/EEA around 60%.
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Post by stuart1974 on May 28, 2019 22:15:11 GMT
Thought this may be useful. Below is a list showcasing 15 of United Kingdom’s top trading partners in terms of export sales. That is, these are countries that imported the most UK shipments by dollar value during 2018. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total UK exports. United States: US$64.4 billion (13.3% of total UK exports) Germany: $47 billion (9.7%) Netherlands: $33.3 billion (6.9%) France: $31.8 billion (6.6%) Ireland: $28.3 billion (5.9%) China: $27.5 billion (5.7%) Switzerland: $25.4 billion (5.2%) Belgium: $19.1 billion (4%) Italy: $14.1 billion (2.9%) Spain: $13.9 billion (2.9%) Hong Kong: $10.3 billion (2.1%) United Arab Emirates: $10 billion (2.1%) Turkey: $9.5 billion (2%) Japan: $8.3 billion (1.7%) South Korea: $7.8 billion (1.6%) Approaching three-quarters (72.5%) of UK exports in 2018 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners. www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-partners/So, only really six that are important, USA, EU, Hong Kong, UAE, Japan & South Korea. By all means draw a line if you want, but it is still cumulative. However, one of the so say benefits of Brexit is to tap into the growth outside Europe. From the list you summarised, where is the net gain?
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 5:59:46 GMT
So, only really six that are important, USA, EU, Hong Kong, UAE, Japan & South Korea. By all means draw a line if you want, but it is still cumulative. However, one of the so say benefits of Brexit is to tap into the growth outside Europe. From the list you summarised, where is the net gain? The simple fact is that economically the EU is in decline/stagnant and the rest of the world is growing. UK exports to non-EU countries has been growing steadily for the last few years, while the EU market has not. Real growth is not in the EU, but elsewhere. One of the Net Gains will be from the elimination of the EU Common Tariff's, which will make goods cheaper for the consumer in the UK.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 7:46:52 GMT
By all means draw a line if you want, but it is still cumulative. However, one of the so say benefits of Brexit is to tap into the growth outside Europe. From the list you summarised, where is the net gain? The simple fact is that economically the EU is in decline/stagnant and the rest of the world is growing. UK exports to non-EU countries has been growing steadily for the last few years, while the EU market has not. Real growth is not in the EU, but elsewhere. One of the Net Gains will be from the elimination of the EU Common Tariff's, which will make goods cheaper for the consumer in the UK. Not this red herring again. The growth outside of the EU has been to countries like South Korea, exports there grew exponentially after trade deal with the EU was signed. (A fact that Johnson didnt realise when he cited that country) Africa has to be a massive area of demand, it's good that treaties are in place across that continent, which will not be there for us after October.
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Post by stuart1974 on May 29, 2019 8:05:18 GMT
By all means draw a line if you want, but it is still cumulative. However, one of the so say benefits of Brexit is to tap into the growth outside Europe. From the list you summarised, where is the net gain? The simple fact is that economically the EU is in decline/stagnant and the rest of the world is growing. UK exports to non-EU countries has been growing steadily for the last few years, while the EU market has not. Real growth is not in the EU, but elsewhere. One of the Net Gains will be from the elimination of the EU Common Tariff's, which will make goods cheaper for the consumer in the UK. We've covered tariffs before in this thread, no overall net gain and a big loss. There is no economic benefit to Brexit that stands up to scrutiny, but big hits especially on no deal/WTO terms.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 8:29:08 GMT
The simple fact is that economically the EU is in decline/stagnant and the rest of the world is growing. UK exports to non-EU countries has been growing steadily for the last few years, while the EU market has not. Real growth is not in the EU, but elsewhere. One of the Net Gains will be from the elimination of the EU Common Tariff's, which will make goods cheaper for the consumer in the UK. We've covered tariffs before in this thread, no overall net gain and a big loss. There is no economic benefit to Brexit that stands up to scrutiny, but big hits especially on no deal/WTO terms. There are economic benefits. Off the top of my head............ A 5% reduction in heating bills for every household in the country. Removal of the EU Common Tariff's will reduce the costs of loads of stuff, from cloths, food, electrical equipment, you name it ! A Trade Deal with the US will be available. The EU spent over seven years negotiating one, and still failed. I fully expect the UK to have a Trade Deal with the US within a year at most. Lowering/Cancelling of Corporation Tax will bring much more investment/jobs into the UK. 39 Billion quid can be spent on UK Infrastructure instead of being given to the EU. and if the Brexit Party have any influence after the next GE, expect..... Cancel HS2, saving 50 billion quid. Drastically reduce Foreign Aid, with money saved being spent in the UK. Cancel BBC Tax Licence Fee
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Post by stuart1974 on May 29, 2019 8:38:44 GMT
We've covered tariffs before in this thread, no overall net gain and a big loss. There is no economic benefit to Brexit that stands up to scrutiny, but big hits especially on no deal/WTO terms. There are economic benefits. Off the top of my head............ A 5% reduction in heating bills for every household in the country. Removal of the EU Common Tariff's will reduce the costs of loads of stuff, from cloths, food, electrical equipment, you name it ! A Trade Deal with the US will be available. The EU spent over seven years negotiating one, and still failed. I fully expect the UK to have a Trade Deal with the US within a year at most. Lowering/Cancelling of Corporation Tax will bring much more investment/jobs into the UK. 39 Billion quid can be spent on UK Infrastructure instead of being given to the EU. Gas is priced in dollars so the 5% savings will be offset plus more. 70% of imports are tariff free, just how many US trainers are you buying? Any US trade deal will come with restrictions, why do you think the EU-US trade deal is dragging? The Canadian one took 7 years. Don't for one minute think that the steel industry will be able to get a government bailout with state aid. Corporation tax is at UK discretion already, it won't go that much lower anyway and I doubt lower than the EU minimum. 39 billion will be item 1 on the EU FTA agenda.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 8:51:44 GMT
There are economic benefits. Off the top of my head............ A 5% reduction in heating bills for every household in the country. Removal of the EU Common Tariff's will reduce the costs of loads of stuff, from cloths, food, electrical equipment, you name it ! A Trade Deal with the US will be available. The EU spent over seven years negotiating one, and still failed. I fully expect the UK to have a Trade Deal with the US within a year at most. Lowering/Cancelling of Corporation Tax will bring much more investment/jobs into the UK. 39 Billion quid can be spent on UK Infrastructure instead of being given to the EU. Gas is priced in dollars so the 5% savings will be offset plus more. 70% of imports are tariff free, just how many US trainers are you buying? Any US trade deal will come with restrictions, why do you think the EU-US trade deal is dragging? The Canadian one took 7 years. Don't for one minute think that the steel industry will be able to get a government bailout with state aid. Corporation tax is at UK discretion already, it won't go that much lower anyway and I doubt lower than the EU minimum. 39 billion will be item 1 on the EU FTA agenda. I don't think people pay their energy bills in dollars. It's not just gas, but all household energy bills. I refer you once again to the extensive EU Database that I have linked to at least three times. The amount of goods with tariff's applied in here is incredible EU Tariff's databaseThere are restrictions with any trade deal. I'm pretty sure we are all adult enough to understand that an FTA does not mean a free-for-all and that countries will still try to protect certain things in their own countries. Why do we have to worry about the EU minimum. Remember, in the future the EU will be competitors. There is a 90 billion trade imbalance with the EU. They will not be in any position to make demands like that with the 39 billion. They need an FTA more than we do. It's a simple economic fact. They refused to re-open the WA, and wasn't the 39 billion part of the WA? It was never agreed, never signed and never ratified. I also forgot to add that the general rate of VAT can be reduced as there will no longer be the need to send the EU their slice of VAT receipt money.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 9:19:17 GMT
There are economic benefits. Off the top of my head............ A 5% reduction in heating bills for every household in the country. Removal of the EU Common Tariff's will reduce the costs of loads of stuff, from cloths, food, electrical equipment, you name it ! A Trade Deal with the US will be available. The EU spent over seven years negotiating one, and still failed. I fully expect the UK to have a Trade Deal with the US within a year at most. Lowering/Cancelling of Corporation Tax will bring much more investment/jobs into the UK. 39 Billion quid can be spent on UK Infrastructure instead of being given to the EU. Gas is priced in dollars so the 5% savings will be offset plus more. 70% of imports are tariff free, just how many US trainers are you buying? Any US trade deal will come with restrictions, why do you think the EU-US trade deal is dragging? The Canadian one took 7 years. Don't for one minute think that the steel industry will be able to get a government bailout with state aid. Corporation tax is at UK discretion already, it won't go that much lower anyway and I doubt lower than the EU minimum. 39 billion will be item 1 on the EU FTA agenda. Corporation Tax in the UK is already one of the lowest rates in the OECD..
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 9:22:56 GMT
Gas is priced in dollars so the 5% savings will be offset plus more. 70% of imports are tariff free, just how many US trainers are you buying? Any US trade deal will come with restrictions, why do you think the EU-US trade deal is dragging? The Canadian one took 7 years. Don't for one minute think that the steel industry will be able to get a government bailout with state aid. Corporation tax is at UK discretion already, it won't go that much lower anyway and I doubt lower than the EU minimum. 39 billion will be item 1 on the EU FTA agenda. Corporation Tax in the UK is already one of the lowest rates in the OECD.. and it can go lower.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 9:23:02 GMT
Gas is priced in dollars so the 5% savings will be offset plus more. 70% of imports are tariff free, just how many US trainers are you buying? Any US trade deal will come with restrictions, why do you think the EU-US trade deal is dragging? The Canadian one took 7 years. Don't for one minute think that the steel industry will be able to get a government bailout with state aid. Corporation tax is at UK discretion already, it won't go that much lower anyway and I doubt lower than the EU minimum. 39 billion will be item 1 on the EU FTA agenda. I don't think people pay their energy bills in dollars. It's not just gas, but all household energy bills. I refer you once again to the extensive EU Database that I have linked to at least three times. The amount of goods with tariff's applied in here is incredible EU Tariff's databaseThere are restrictions with any trade deal. I'm pretty sure we are all adult enough to understand that an FTA does not mean a free-for-all and that countries will still try to protect certain things in their own countries. Why do we have to worry about the EU minimum. Remember, in the future the EU will be competitors. There is a 90 billion trade imbalance with the EU. They will not be in any position to make demands like that with the 39 billion. They need an FTA more than we do. It's a simple economic fact. They refused to re-open the WA, and wasn't the 39 billion part of the WA? It was never agreed, never signed and never ratified. I also forgot to add that the general rate of VAT can be reduced as there will no longer be the need to send the EU their slice of VAT receipt money. Nobby Taking Vat as an example. If you cut it, how do you propose you plug the hole in government finances which is already running an annual deficit? Please dont quote the Laffer Curve to me.
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