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Post by Gassy on Oct 2, 2020 16:06:16 GMT
If the EU has evolved to the point where they are effectively holding member states prisoner do you think that is a good thing? I’m not sure I ever want to be part of an organisation that works in that manner. Surely a better position is where there are so many positives to membership that nobody would ever consider leaving in the first place? Like I’ve said before if it had remained a purely trading organisation then there would never have been a referendum in the first place. who are they holding prisoner sorry? Everyone, obviously. Everyone wants to leave, but they can't because they're being held prisoners. I thought you'd have got that?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2020 16:18:50 GMT
who are they holding prisoner sorry? Everyone, obviously. Everyone wants to leave, but they can't because they're being held prisoners. I thought you'd have got that? Indeed, you would have thought some would come up with better lines by now
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Post by devonblue on Oct 2, 2020 17:28:19 GMT
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Post by trevorgas on Oct 2, 2020 17:32:51 GMT
Everyone, obviously. Everyone wants to leave, but they can't because they're being held prisoners. I thought you'd have got that? Indeed, you would have thought some would come up with better lines by now I get what Eric was saying and when you spend time in a few of the Mediterranean Countries it does resonate All my Italian friends have little time for the EU and see it as a Franco/German conspiracy which benefits only those 2 Countries and the EUs response to Italy when covid landed only reinforces that view I have met no one in Italy who if given the chance would vote to stay in the EU albeit they recognise that there current economic situation does not support leaving. They may indeed be held by paper handcuffs but they are handcuffs nonetheless.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2020 18:24:36 GMT
Indeed, you would have thought some would come up with better lines by now I get what Eric was saying and when you spend time in a few of the Mediterranean Countries it does resonate All my Italian friends have little time for the EU and see it as a Franco/German conspiracy which benefits only those 2 Countries and the EUs response to Italy when covid landed only reinforces that view I have met no one in Italy who if given the chance would vote to stay in the EU albeit they recognise that there current economic situation does not support leaving. They may indeed be held by paper handcuffs but they are handcuffs nonetheless. This is the thing. If Italy cannot support leaving because of the economics, is that not a tacit acceptance of the economics? I completely agree that the German's reluctance to accept that their massive current account and trade surpluses kept the value of the Euro high to the detriment of the Mediterranean economies. But that is the fault, in no small part, of those country's electorate who voted in incompetent politicians who chose to utilise the low interest rates on Euro Bond debt (a rate supported by German economics) to spend unwisely. And so on. Like here. It's no point wondering why whole swathes of the country are being hit by disease, why that same swathe have high incidences of poverty, poor housing, poor health and educational outcomes when they (and others) voted in people like Cameron, Osborne and Johnson whose economic policies exacerbated decades long periods of economic decline. Blaming the EU is just cover for those people.
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Post by trevorgas on Oct 2, 2020 19:08:22 GMT
I get what Eric was saying and when you spend time in a few of the Mediterranean Countries it does resonate All my Italian friends have little time for the EU and see it as a Franco/German conspiracy which benefits only those 2 Countries and the EUs response to Italy when covid landed only reinforces that view I have met no one in Italy who if given the chance would vote to stay in the EU albeit they recognise that there current economic situation does not support leaving. They may indeed be held by paper handcuffs but they are handcuffs nonetheless. This is the thing. If Italy cannot support leaving because of the economics, is that not a tacit acceptance of the economics? I completely agree that the German's reluctance to accept that their massive current account and trade surpluses kept the value of the Euro high to the detriment of the Mediterranean economies. But that is the fault, in no small part, of those country's electorate who voted in incompetent politicians who chose to utilise the low interest rates on Euro Bond debt (a rate supported by German economics) to spend unwisely. And so on. Like here. It's no point wondering why whole swathes of the country are being hit by disease, why that same swathe have high incidences of poverty, poor housing, poor health and educational outcomes when they (and others) voted in people like Cameron, Osborne and Johnson whose economic policies exacerbated decades long periods of economic decline. Blaming the EU is just cover for those people. What you say Les is undoubtedly correct however,you pose a sophisticated argument that would not register with average Italian voter who tend to vote not only along partisan lines but also geographical ergo the Northern League ,what always strikes in my discussions with them is that two things bind opposing voters together. There deep mistrust of the EU and in particular Brussels. There enimity of historical foes particularly Germany/Austria,we sometimes think we are fixated by history but it runs deep in the Italian physche and surfaces time and again over any discussion about the EU.
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Post by stuart1974 on Oct 2, 2020 19:25:23 GMT
This is the thing. If Italy cannot support leaving because of the economics, is that not a tacit acceptance of the economics? I completely agree that the German's reluctance to accept that their massive current account and trade surpluses kept the value of the Euro high to the detriment of the Mediterranean economies. But that is the fault, in no small part, of those country's electorate who voted in incompetent politicians who chose to utilise the low interest rates on Euro Bond debt (a rate supported by German economics) to spend unwisely. And so on. Like here. It's no point wondering why whole swathes of the country are being hit by disease, why that same swathe have high incidences of poverty, poor housing, poor health and educational outcomes when they (and others) voted in people like Cameron, Osborne and Johnson whose economic policies exacerbated decades long periods of economic decline. Blaming the EU is just cover for those people. What you say Les is undoubtedly correct however,you pose a sophisticated argument that would not register with average Italian voter who tend to vote not only along partisan lines but also geographical ergo the Northern League ,what always strikes in my discussions with them is that two things bind opposing voters together. There deep mistrust of the EU and in particular Brussels. There enimity of historical foes particularly Germany/Austria,we sometimes think we are fixated by history but it runs deep in the Italian physche and surfaces time and again over any discussion about the EU. The Visigoths definitely left deep scars. As I understand it, Italians would likely vote to leave given the chance by their government, the problem comes from membership of the eurozone and extracting themselves from the issues with the ECB. There is no natural mechanism to leave the euro, that would be uncharted territory.
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Post by trevorgas on Oct 2, 2020 20:33:38 GMT
What you say Les is undoubtedly correct however,you pose a sophisticated argument that would not register with average Italian voter who tend to vote not only along partisan lines but also geographical ergo the Northern League ,what always strikes in my discussions with them is that two things bind opposing voters together. There deep mistrust of the EU and in particular Brussels. There enimity of historical foes particularly Germany/Austria,we sometimes think we are fixated by history but it runs deep in the Italian physche and surfaces time and again over any discussion about the EU. The Visigoths definitely left deep scars. As I understand it, Italians would likely vote to leave given the chance by their government, the problem comes from membership of the eurozone and extracting themselves from the issues with the ECB. There is no natural mechanism to leave the euro, that would be uncharted territory. Evening Stuart That is undoubtedly correct.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2020 20:52:53 GMT
What you say Les is undoubtedly correct however,you pose a sophisticated argument that would not register with average Italian voter who tend to vote not only along partisan lines but also geographical ergo the Northern League ,what always strikes in my discussions with them is that two things bind opposing voters together. There deep mistrust of the EU and in particular Brussels. There enimity of historical foes particularly Germany/Austria,we sometimes think we are fixated by history but it runs deep in the Italian physche and surfaces time and again over any discussion about the EU. The Visigoths definitely left deep scars. As I understand it, Italians would likely vote to leave given the chance by their government, the problem comes from membership of the eurozone and extracting themselves from the issues with the ECB. There is no natural mechanism to leave the euro, that would be uncharted territory. Which is why I made my comment on becoming effective prisoners. The EU has grown beyond all control and the longer it’s gone on the more difficult leaving has become - which is probably a goal of the EU. Such an organisation should look to retain its members by keeping them happy and not seeing them stay against their wishes by making it as painful as possible to leave.
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Post by stuart1974 on Oct 2, 2020 22:17:33 GMT
The Visigoths definitely left deep scars. As I understand it, Italians would likely vote to leave given the chance by their government, the problem comes from membership of the eurozone and extracting themselves from the issues with the ECB. There is no natural mechanism to leave the euro, that would be uncharted territory. Which is why I made my comment on becoming effective prisoners. The EU has grown beyond all control and the longer it’s gone on the more difficult leaving has become - which is probably a goal of the EU. Such an organisation should look to retain its members by keeping them happy and not seeing them stay against their wishes by making it as painful as possible to leave. The problems of leaving are partly down to the issues of integration and mutual reliance, bit like a marriage. Anyone with insomnia may find this interesting, based on a hypothetical exit by Finland. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3024551
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Post by stuart1974 on Oct 2, 2020 22:37:37 GMT
The Visigoths definitely left deep scars. As I understand it, Italians would likely vote to leave given the chance by their government, the problem comes from membership of the eurozone and extracting themselves from the issues with the ECB. There is no natural mechanism to leave the euro, that would be uncharted territory. Evening Stuart That is undoubtedly correct. Good evening to you too, hope all is well. I saw this earlier, there is a new anti EU party forming. Current polling makes any referendum close. A Tecne poll of 1000 people in April found Italexit supporters would come within a whisker of winning: with don’t-knows excluded, 49 per cent of Italians would vote to leave, up from 29 per cent at the end of 2018. In a Termometro poll of 2200 Italians about the same time, 39 per cent wanted to leave the EU and the eurozone, and 41 per cent wanted to stay. Another 15 per cent were split evenly between leaving one of the two but staying in the other. And a Euronews poll in May found 61 per cent of Italians felt COVID-19 had weakened the case for the EU, with 70 per cent saying the bloc had not done enough to help their country during the crisis. In that poll, just 47 per cent said they would definitely vote "Remain" in a referendum. www.afr.com/world/europe/italians-are-awakening-could-italy-follow-britain-out-of-the-eu-20200806-p55izu
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2020 6:49:25 GMT
Evening Stuart That is undoubtedly correct. Good evening to you too, hope all is well. I saw this earlier, there is a new anti EU party forming. Current polling makes any referendum close. A Tecne poll of 1000 people in April found Italexit supporters would come within a whisker of winning: with don’t-knows excluded, 49 per cent of Italians would vote to leave, up from 29 per cent at the end of 2018. In a Termometro poll of 2200 Italians about the same time, 39 per cent wanted to leave the EU and the eurozone, and 41 per cent wanted to stay. Another 15 per cent were split evenly between leaving one of the two but staying in the other. And a Euronews poll in May found 61 per cent of Italians felt COVID-19 had weakened the case for the EU, with 70 per cent saying the bloc had not done enough to help their country during the crisis. In that poll, just 47 per cent said they would definitely vote "Remain" in a referendum. www.afr.com/world/europe/italians-are-awakening-could-italy-follow-britain-out-of-the-eu-20200806-p55izuI know that not all countries would vote leave if they had a referendum but it appears there is a lot of anti EU feeling across the continent. Perhaps the EU should have had the foresight to address the areas in which the people have concerns and address them rather than carry on in a blinkered fashion towards their goals?
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Post by stuart1974 on Oct 3, 2020 8:03:36 GMT
Good evening to you too, hope all is well. I saw this earlier, there is a new anti EU party forming. Current polling makes any referendum close. A Tecne poll of 1000 people in April found Italexit supporters would come within a whisker of winning: with don’t-knows excluded, 49 per cent of Italians would vote to leave, up from 29 per cent at the end of 2018. In a Termometro poll of 2200 Italians about the same time, 39 per cent wanted to leave the EU and the eurozone, and 41 per cent wanted to stay. Another 15 per cent were split evenly between leaving one of the two but staying in the other. And a Euronews poll in May found 61 per cent of Italians felt COVID-19 had weakened the case for the EU, with 70 per cent saying the bloc had not done enough to help their country during the crisis. In that poll, just 47 per cent said they would definitely vote "Remain" in a referendum. www.afr.com/world/europe/italians-are-awakening-could-italy-follow-britain-out-of-the-eu-20200806-p55izuI know that not all countries would vote leave if they had a referendum but it appears there is a lot of anti EU feeling across the continent. Perhaps the EU should have had the foresight to address the areas in which the people have concerns and address them rather than carry on in a blinkered fashion towards their goals? There is a lot, some justified some not with the EU made the ogre, bit like Westminster here or the US internationally. A convenient excuse to divert blame away from whomever choses. I guess one man's 'standardisation to enable freer and easier trade' is another's 'integration'.
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Post by Gassy on Oct 3, 2020 8:32:56 GMT
Evening Stuart That is undoubtedly correct. Good evening to you too, hope all is well. I saw this earlier, there is a new anti EU party forming. Current polling makes any referendum close. A Tecne poll of 1000 people in April found Italexit supporters would come within a whisker of winning: with don’t-knows excluded, 49 per cent of Italians would vote to leave, up from 29 per cent at the end of 2018. In a Termometro poll of 2200 Italians about the same time, 39 per cent wanted to leave the EU and the eurozone, and 41 per cent wanted to stay. Another 15 per cent were split evenly between leaving one of the two but staying in the other. And a Euronews poll in May found 61 per cent of Italians felt COVID-19 had weakened the case for the EU, with 70 per cent saying the bloc had not done enough to help their country during the crisis. In that poll, just 47 per cent said they would definitely vote "Remain" in a referendum. www.afr.com/world/europe/italians-are-awakening-could-italy-follow-britain-out-of-the-eu-20200806-p55izuI’m still fairly confident they’d vote remain, if it came to it. I knew 30+ Italians from my time abroad and every single one of them were pro-EU, so I’ve had a very different experience to trevorgas. 47% saying they would definitely vote remain would be enough to win it - if you factor in the swing voters which would go both ways, that would still push them over 50%. Plus as the arguments came out, I think Italy would realise they need the EU. As for other countries leaving, I’m fairly confident no other country would consider it. Hungary and Italy would be my assumption. Italy, we’ve just discussed and Hungary, I also don’t think would do it, despite their leader not being a fan. But even if they did want to, 2/27 hardly makes them as bad as they’re being made out on here.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2020 9:04:10 GMT
Good evening to you too, hope all is well. I saw this earlier, there is a new anti EU party forming. Current polling makes any referendum close. A Tecne poll of 1000 people in April found Italexit supporters would come within a whisker of winning: with don’t-knows excluded, 49 per cent of Italians would vote to leave, up from 29 per cent at the end of 2018. In a Termometro poll of 2200 Italians about the same time, 39 per cent wanted to leave the EU and the eurozone, and 41 per cent wanted to stay. Another 15 per cent were split evenly between leaving one of the two but staying in the other. And a Euronews poll in May found 61 per cent of Italians felt COVID-19 had weakened the case for the EU, with 70 per cent saying the bloc had not done enough to help their country during the crisis. In that poll, just 47 per cent said they would definitely vote "Remain" in a referendum. www.afr.com/world/europe/italians-are-awakening-could-italy-follow-britain-out-of-the-eu-20200806-p55izuI’m still fairly confident they’d vote remain, if it came to it. I knew 30+ Italians from my time abroad and every single one of them were pro-EU, so I’ve had a very different experience to trevorgas. 47% saying they would definitely vote remain would be enough to win it - if you factor in the swing voters which would go both ways, that would still push them over 50%. Plus as the arguments came out, I think Italy would realise they need the EU. As for other countries leaving, I’m fairly confident no other country would consider it. Hungary and Italy would be my assumption. Italy, we’ve just discussed and Hungary, I also don’t think would do it, despite their leader not being a fan. But even if they did want to, 2/27 hardly makes them as bad as they’re being made out on here. In any event, how the EU is viewed on here betrays a fundamental lack of understanding of the ECJ who, by the way, adjudicated in favour of the UK in a case brought against us by Austria in the last couple of weeks. I also do not see how we, the UK, can ask for an FTA and not expect the EU to ask for the "level playing field" when it comes to standards and State Aid. What exactly did people expect?
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Post by Gassy on Oct 3, 2020 9:09:55 GMT
I’m still fairly confident they’d vote remain, if it came to it. I knew 30+ Italians from my time abroad and every single one of them were pro-EU, so I’ve had a very different experience to trevorgas. 47% saying they would definitely vote remain would be enough to win it - if you factor in the swing voters which would go both ways, that would still push them over 50%. Plus as the arguments came out, I think Italy would realise they need the EU. As for other countries leaving, I’m fairly confident no other country would consider it. Hungary and Italy would be my assumption. Italy, we’ve just discussed and Hungary, I also don’t think would do it, despite their leader not being a fan. But even if they did want to, 2/27 hardly makes them as bad as they’re being made out on here. In any event, how the EU is viewed on here betrays a fundamental lack of understanding of the ECJ who, by the way, adjudicated in favour of the UK in a case brought against us by Austria in the last couple of weeks. I also do not see how we, the UK, can ask for an FTA and not expect the EU to ask for the "level playing field" when it comes to standards and State Aid. What exactly did people expect? It’ll certainly be interesting to see how the EU react. No doubt if the EU try anything underhand it’ll be deemed unacceptable by some. But if we break the law, then that’s ok.
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Post by trevorgas on Oct 3, 2020 9:29:46 GMT
Evening Stuart That is undoubtedly correct. Good evening to you too, hope all is well. I saw this earlier, there is a new anti EU party forming. Current polling makes any referendum close. A Tecne poll of 1000 people in April found Italexit supporters would come within a whisker of winning: with don’t-knows excluded, 49 per cent of Italians would vote to leave, up from 29 per cent at the end of 2018. In a Termometro poll of 2200 Italians about the same time, 39 per cent wanted to leave the EU and the eurozone, and 41 per cent wanted to stay. Another 15 per cent were split evenly between leaving one of the two but staying in the other. And a Euronews poll in May found 61 per cent of Italians felt COVID-19 had weakened the case for the EU, with 70 per cent saying the bloc had not done enough to help their country during the crisis. In that poll, just 47 per cent said they would definitely vote "Remain" in a referendum. www.afr.com/world/europe/italians-are-awakening-could-italy-follow-britain-out-of-the-eu-20200806-p55izuMorning Stuart,under local lockdown here even though there are only 400 cases a day in the whole of Wales ,bizarre however the second rate politician in Cardiff loves to exercise power. Back to Italy that's very interesting info you have dug out,the Italians are notorious for being change adverse so to see such rapid growth in the leave position amazes me. The thing is that a bit like here once the dripping tap gets to flow it has an almost unstoppable momentum,the big difference to here though is that theit Economy and Banks currently are not sustainable without EU support.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2020 12:32:05 GMT
Good evening to you too, hope all is well. I saw this earlier, there is a new anti EU party forming. Current polling makes any referendum close. A Tecne poll of 1000 people in April found Italexit supporters would come within a whisker of winning: with don’t-knows excluded, 49 per cent of Italians would vote to leave, up from 29 per cent at the end of 2018. In a Termometro poll of 2200 Italians about the same time, 39 per cent wanted to leave the EU and the eurozone, and 41 per cent wanted to stay. Another 15 per cent were split evenly between leaving one of the two but staying in the other. And a Euronews poll in May found 61 per cent of Italians felt COVID-19 had weakened the case for the EU, with 70 per cent saying the bloc had not done enough to help their country during the crisis. In that poll, just 47 per cent said they would definitely vote "Remain" in a referendum. www.afr.com/world/europe/italians-are-awakening-could-italy-follow-britain-out-of-the-eu-20200806-p55izuI’m still fairly confident they’d vote remain, if it came to it. I knew 30+ Italians from my time abroad and every single one of them were pro-EU, so I’ve had a very different experience to trevorgas. 47% saying they would definitely vote remain would be enough to win it - if you factor in the swing voters which would go both ways, that would still push them over 50%. Plus as the arguments came out, I think Italy would realise they need the EU. As for other countries leaving, I’m fairly confident no other country would consider it. Hungary and Italy would be my assumption. Italy, we’ve just discussed and Hungary, I also don’t think would do it, despite their leader not being a fan. But even if they did want to, 2/27 hardly makes them as bad as they’re being made out on here. I think there was a lot of confidence about a Remain vote in the U.K. referendum too. Too many people ignore the views of the largely silent majority and it is that complacency of thought which has led to a series of elections which has caused ‘surprise’ among those on the left side of the fence.
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Post by Gassy on Oct 3, 2020 13:24:29 GMT
I’m still fairly confident they’d vote remain, if it came to it. I knew 30+ Italians from my time abroad and every single one of them were pro-EU, so I’ve had a very different experience to trevorgas. 47% saying they would definitely vote remain would be enough to win it - if you factor in the swing voters which would go both ways, that would still push them over 50%. Plus as the arguments came out, I think Italy would realise they need the EU. As for other countries leaving, I’m fairly confident no other country would consider it. Hungary and Italy would be my assumption. Italy, we’ve just discussed and Hungary, I also don’t think would do it, despite their leader not being a fan. But even if they did want to, 2/27 hardly makes them as bad as they’re being made out on here. I think there was a lot of confidence about a Remain vote in the U.K. referendum too. Too many people ignore the views of the largely silent majority and it is that complacency of thought which has led to a series of elections which has caused ‘surprise’ among those on the left side of the fence. Tbh, I think the main reason (or one of) for leave winning was because the poles suggested a fairly comfortable win in which many just didn’t bother to turn up - so I wouldn’t disagree with you there. Not sure if they’re a majority, but large enough to make a difference. Italy I feel is the same, but the other way around tbh. No evidence to back that up, just a feeling
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Post by yattongas on Oct 5, 2020 13:28:19 GMT
Indeed, you would have thought some would come up with better lines by now I get what Eric was saying and when you spend time in a few of the Mediterranean Countries it does resonate All my Italian friends have little time for the EU and see it as a Franco/German conspiracy which benefits only those 2 Countries and the EUs response to Italy when covid landed only reinforces that view I have met no one in Italy who if given the chance would vote to stay in the EU albeit they recognise that there current economic situation does not support leaving. They may indeed be held by paper handcuffs but they are handcuffs nonetheless. According to the last national censis poll..... 62% of Italians say leaving the EU would not be a good idea , whilst 25% would be in favour of leaving the EU bloc
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