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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2018 9:45:44 GMT
Yep. The CSU tried to be hard against immigration, but they failed. Voters saw their immigration games as just that, games. It was the CDU/CSU that opened the doors to mass immigration, so why should voters believe them when they talk about closing the doors? The CSU just came across as trying to say the right thing at the right time just to get the votes. It didn't work. The AfD vote went from nothing to 11%. As an early indicator of the Hesse elections in two weeks time.. "The latest polls show that the CDU could struggle to break the 30 percent barrier, compared to the 38.3 percent it won in Hesse's last election in 2013." Interesting I think how we read things differently, depending upon our own personal prejudices. I would read it as the CSU shamelessly trying to appeal the worse base instincts, but still get 37% of the vote, which is disturbing. But the Greens went up to 17%. For me, given what the CSU did, it will be interesting to understand if people voted for CSU out of tribal loyalty, or their vote held up because of their change of policy. If the latter then the rise of AfD becomes real and a problem. If because of tribal loyalty it makes AfD look like a protest vote. Hopefully the latter. Yes, there is an awful lot of 'tribal loyalty' with CDU/CSU voters. It is very much of case of people vote for what they know. CDU/CSU has historically been seen as 'safe and steady'. Bavaria has always been the most 'conservative' of the German States, which makes the rise of the AfD even more disturbing. This is the most populous state in Germany, and the richest. CSU may have got 37%, but they would normally expect at least 50% ! Certainly older voters would never vote for anyone but CSU in Bavaria. The CSU vote didn't hold up. Instead of an outright majority, as they have had since 1962, they now have to form a coalition government. The reason the AfD did not do better is down to the Free Voters Party, who got about 11%. The Free Voters are a centre-right conservative party, without the anti-islamic rhetoric of the AfD. They will probably join with the CSU to govern Bavaria in a coalition. Without the Free Voters, it is likely that AfD would have got about 18% or 19%! Remember, this is not Eastern Germany. This is middle-of-the-road, solid conservative Bavaria ! |
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Post by stuart1974 on Oct 16, 2018 10:02:49 GMT
What was the turnout like?
Could that have skewed the percentage towards those more active against the more conservative (small c) voters who didn't?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2018 10:13:37 GMT
What was the turnout like? Could that have skewed the percentage towards those more active against the more conservative (small c) voters who didn't? It was the largest turnout for many years at 72%. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Oct 16, 2018 10:32:14 GMT
What was the turnout like? Could that have skewed the percentage towards those more active against the more conservative (small c) voters who didn't? It was the largest turnout for many years at 72%. Well that prevents that excuse then. Time for some grown up discussions to be had. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2018 11:11:02 GMT
It was the largest turnout for many years at 72%. Well that prevents that excuse then. Time for some grown up discussions to be had. Very much so. I just hope it's rational and looks at cause and effect |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2018 11:14:37 GMT
Well that prevents that excuse then. Time for some grown up discussions to be had. Very much so. I just hope it's rational and looks at cause and effect What do you think? "German Chancellor Angela Merkel vowed Monday to "win back trust" from voters after squabbling within her three-party coalition was blamed for severe election losses in the state of Bavaria. Looking back at a turbulent year since 2017 general elections, which saw painful coalition talks followed by harsh infighting on immigration, she conceded that "a lot of trust has been lost". Her lesson from Sunday's Bavaria polls, where her governing partners the CSU and the SPD suffered heavy losses, was that " I as the chancellor must do more to ensure that this trust is there". Her own Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the CSU "can be expected to act in a united way," she said, pointing to her deep rift with the CSU's hardline Interior Minister Horst Seehofer. The governing parties were in shell-shock after Sunday's regional election, where the CSU took a 10-point dive to 37 percent, losing its absolute majority in the Alpine state it has ruled since the 1960s." |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2018 12:19:43 GMT
Very much so. I just hope it's rational and looks at cause and effect What do you think? "German Chancellor Angela Merkel vowed Monday to "win back trust" from voters after squabbling within her three-party coalition was blamed for severe election losses in the state of Bavaria. Looking back at a turbulent year since 2017 general elections, which saw painful coalition talks followed by harsh infighting on immigration, she conceded that "a lot of trust has been lost". Her lesson from Sunday's Bavaria polls, where her governing partners the CSU and the SPD suffered heavy losses, was that " I as the chancellor must do more to ensure that this trust is there". Her own Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the CSU "can be expected to act in a united way," she said, pointing to her deep rift with the CSU's hardline Interior Minister Horst Seehofer. The governing parties were in shell-shock after Sunday's regional election, where the CSU took a 10-point dive to 37 percent, losing its absolute majority in the Alpine state it has ruled since the 1960s." I don't enough about the horse trading that goes on there to be able to form an opinion. What I do believe is that GDP is not being equitably share amongst the population. For me, this is the underlying cause of populism. That, an incompetent governments. Look at the fiasco here with Universal Credit. |
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