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Post by mehewmagic on Mar 19, 2019 0:21:52 GMT
hmm, interesting. Maybe they might get some results against those lot, now they're on the precipice of the drop .......... otherwise they've had it ! Southend on a bad run but in Cox they have a man who will score. They need to wrap him up and save him for Saturdays. UTG! Yeah, but it's the same for Rochdale with Ian Henderson and Gills with Tom Eaves. Someone could easily go down despite having one of the best strikers in the division. Anyone remember Will Hoskins for us in 2010-11?
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Post by Qatar Gas on Mar 19, 2019 4:40:39 GMT
I looked back at the last ten seasons where 21st placed went down with between 50 and 43 points (47.9 points the average). So going from the previous 10 seasons 51 points would be enough, but this is one crazy seasons and I can see someone on 51 points or more still going down.
I think we should be aiming for 55 points (11 more points), that plus our goal difference will surely be enough. I think with our current form this should be no problem.
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Post by Congas on Mar 19, 2019 6:52:00 GMT
Saturday's fixtures pit a few against each other: us and Plymouth, Wimbledon Gills and Rochdale Scunthorpe. Some others have what look like tough fixtures too. Wycombe aren't playing so 4 points from the Plymouth and Donny games should put a bit of light between us and the drop.
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Post by Rod1883 on Mar 19, 2019 7:55:53 GMT
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Post by geddongas on Mar 19, 2019 8:39:20 GMT
Somewhat reassuring to see only 1% of the respondents think we’re going down
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Post by Blueside on Mar 19, 2019 9:13:15 GMT
Somewhat reassuring to see only 1% of the respondents think we’re going down So we can "think" ourselves to safety?
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Post by warehamgas on Mar 19, 2019 9:41:20 GMT
Thanks for seeing that Rod. Yes it is interesting and the guy obviously did a lot of research into it. But he implied we had a hard April. Apart from the obvious comment that all matches are hard atm. I think April is hard with Bradford, AFCW and Rochdale but not in the way he implied as he was looking at playing top and bottom half teams. Interesting conclusions he came to. If we finish March 3/4 points outside the bottom 4 I think we will be ok. UTG!
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Post by warehamgas on Mar 19, 2019 9:53:21 GMT
Southend on a bad run but in Cox they have a man who will score. They need to wrap him up and save him for Saturdays. UTG! Yeah, but it's the same for Rochdale with Ian Henderson and Gills with Tom Eaves. Someone could easily go down despite having one of the best strikers in the division. Anyone remember Will Hoskins for us in 2010-11? Of course you are right but, and I haven’t checked, Henderson has stopped scoring recently similar to Eaves whereas Cox is on form. And in the end one of the teams or even two could go down with an in-form striker. Whatever, it will be very close. I hope GC can keep his and our nerve. In 2014 that game against Torquay still comes back to haunt me, I hope the Bradford and Rochdale matches don’t. UTG!
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Post by tommym9 on Mar 19, 2019 10:16:06 GMT
Somewhat reassuring to see only 1% of the respondents think we’re going down So we can "think" ourselves to safety?
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Post by markczgas on Mar 19, 2019 11:01:03 GMT
The dgaddy guy thinks Us, Plymouth and Oxford could be battling to avoid being 2 of the 4 going down ? He's based it on having the most difficult games to come BUT it doesn't take into account current/recent form - I'd say all 3 are doing well in that and that gives players confidence to get results. I'd agree Rochdale and Bradford have had it and I'd still be very worried if I were a Womble, Walsall and (Southend and Wycombe supporter as they are nose-diving).
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Post by blueridge on Mar 19, 2019 11:31:08 GMT
I still think we will end up with 54/55 points which should be enough. For me even a worst case scenario of just 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from our last nine would still give us 53 points. My bottom four Wimbledon, Walsall, Bradford and Rochdale. Hopefully the 'cheats' will take one of the places instead of Wimbledon or Walsall.
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Post by Topper Gas on Mar 19, 2019 11:56:54 GMT
I still think we will end up with 54/55 points which should be enough. For me even a worst case scenario of just 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from our last nine would still give us 53 points. My bottom four Wimbledon, Walsall, Bradford and Rochdale. Hopefully the 'cheats' will take one of the places instead of Wimbledon or Walsall. Wimbledon are a fantastic run like us, they just need to keep that going to survive, whereas Southend and Wycombe can't buy a win. We know looking at our form pre DC and post GC once you start winning it becomes a habit as those losing. Rochdale have also picked up under their new manager and know how to avoid the drop.
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Post by mehewmagic on Mar 22, 2019 18:21:04 GMT
Yeah, but it's the same for Rochdale with Ian Henderson and Gills with Tom Eaves. Someone could easily go down despite having one of the best strikers in the division. Anyone remember Will Hoskins for us in 2010-11? Of course you are right but, and I haven’t checked, Henderson has stopped scoring recently similar to Eaves whereas Cox is on form. And in the end one of the teams or even two could go down with an in-form striker. Whatever, it will be very close. I hope GC can keep his and our nerve. In 2014 that game against Torquay still comes back to haunt me, I hope the Bradford and Rochdale matches don’t. UTG! I'll remind Lee mansell of that match when I see him next week!! I'm also (hopefully) writing my Rochdale programme article about that Rochdale match. Would love us to out of any serious trouble by then.
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