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Post by heartofgas on Jan 24, 2023 9:38:51 GMT
If the value of the Mem land is £40m, if a new stadium costs £50m and if a redeveloped Mem would come in at £30m, then the sums are less difficult. Obviously I've made these numbers up to fit my point, but the two crucial details are the value of the land and the fact that a redevelopment short of tearing the whole thing down would cost less than a new stadium. Obviously it wouldn't be as good, but if there is no alternative then it would be a hell of a lot better than what we have and where we are now and indeed in the foreseeable future. We can't just do nothing! You can probably work out the value of the Mem to a developer by estimating how many properties could be built, the averaged build cost, the demolition cost, the property resale values and any other other fees/taxes etc. A buyer would want a reasonable ROI. At a small scale my understanding was approx guidance for developers is 1/3 land cost 1/3 build cost 1/3 profit. The additional negative for rovers is anyone buying the land will also have to factor in the demolition costs. One other thought. Aren't Wael's family into hotel's? Couldn't Wael sell it to his family to build a hotel on the site? |
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Jan 24, 2023 9:48:55 GMT
You can probably work out the value of the Mem to a developer by estimating how many properties could be built, the averaged build cost, the demolition cost, the property resale values and any other other fees/taxes etc. A buyer would want a reasonable ROI. At a small scale my understanding was approx guidance for developers is 1/3 land cost 1/3 build cost 1/3 profit. The additional negative for rovers is anyone buying the land will also have to factor in the demolition costs. One other thought. Aren't Wael's family into hotel's? Couldn't Wael sell it to his family to build a hotel on the site? It’s all part of the master plan , as the Mem slowly crumbles the demolition costs go down. Genius. |
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Post by Henbury Gas on Jan 24, 2023 10:14:22 GMT
You can probably work out the value of the Mem to a developer by estimating how many properties could be built, the averaged build cost, the demolition cost, the property resale values and any other other fees/taxes etc. A buyer would want a reasonable ROI. At a small scale my understanding was approx guidance for developers is 1/3 land cost 1/3 build cost 1/3 profit. The additional negative for rovers is anyone buying the land will also have to factor in the demolition costs. One other thought. Aren't Wael's family into hotel's? Couldn't Wael sell it to his family to build a hotel on the site? They are also into Airports, so a inner city airport would be a good idea as well......  |
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Jan 24, 2023 10:32:29 GMT
At a small scale my understanding was approx guidance for developers is 1/3 land cost 1/3 build cost 1/3 profit. The additional negative for rovers is anyone buying the land will also have to factor in the demolition costs. One other thought. Aren't Wael's family into hotel's? Couldn't Wael sell it to his family to build a hotel on the site? They are also into Airports, so an inner city airport would be a good idea as well...... That ones never gonna fly 🙄 |
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Post by gashead1981 on Jan 24, 2023 10:34:29 GMT
Out of interest What is is that we can't have at a redeveloped mem that makes it commercially unviable? Any form of industrial commercial opportunity. Any form of music concerts or events where there would be significant noise pollution. Decent parking facilities to cope with additional matchday attendance or any other event like the above. Hotels - why do you need a hotel at the top of Glos Rd? Its miles away from any landmarks in the City. Poor public transport and road networks. |
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Post by playtowin on Jan 24, 2023 10:39:11 GMT
Sliding roof on the FM stadium to host indoor large events and therefore reduce noise pollution from concerts.
Making it the large venue of choice in the area.
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Post by percy on Jan 24, 2023 10:41:11 GMT
Just looking at the stadium on google maps, there are probably 2 options if we are going to remain
- Leave for 2 seasons, completely knock down. rotate pitch and move east into middle of the plot and build a complete new stadium. Most costly and disruptive. Like the idea of revisiting student accommodation to help fund.
- Rebuild the east stand full length of the pitch. Then build a stand on the north terrace, over the footprint of the bar and current fanzone. These 2 stands would need facilities to maximise revenue. Corporate, bars and non-matchday focussed (gym, restaurant etc) Do what we can with the other 2 sides so it doesnt look awful. Shifting the pitch a couple of meters north should enable a better temp south stand
Not sure why I am doing this, bored i guess, we know its not happening.
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Post by thegasman on Jan 24, 2023 10:44:45 GMT
So I've done a thing.
I've found out how much residential building land value is in Bristol (2019 figures), it was £3.25M/ha. (land registry figures)
The Mem is just a fraction under 3 Ha, (measured on google earth) so in 2019 its value was - give or take - a little under £10M.
If we use an average of 10% increase in price, year on year, then :
June 2019 =£10M
June 2020 = £11M
June 2021 = £12.1M
June 2022 = £13.3M
June 2023 = £14.65M
The actual increase has fluctuated, and been a little under 10%, but it keeps the maths simple. (taken from an average shown on several different websites.)
So even if land was donated to the the cause, the cost of building a stadium either has to remain under £15M or extra capital has to realised to meet costs over £15M
Or stay at the Mem, keep hold of the land and try to raise (by whatever means) the investment to build a new stadium, bit by bit.
Land in South Gloucs is a little cheaper, but not by much.
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Post by eric on Jan 24, 2023 10:46:57 GMT
You can probably work out the value of the Mem to a developer by estimating how many properties could be built, the averaged build cost, the demolition cost, the property resale values and any other other fees/taxes etc. A buyer would want a reasonable ROI. At a small scale my understanding was approx guidance for developers is 1/3 land cost 1/3 build cost 1/3 profit. The additional negative for rovers is anyone buying the land will also have to factor in the demolition costs. One other thought. Aren't Wael's family into hotel's? Couldn't Wael sell it to his family to build a hotel on the site? The holidaymakers will be flooding to Filton Avenue !!! |
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Post by Henbury Gas on Jan 24, 2023 10:55:40 GMT
They are also into Airports, so an inner city airport would be a good idea as well...... That ones never gonna fly 🙄 Yeah its all pie in the sky talk, just like our real stadium plans.... |
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Post by Quarters on Jan 24, 2023 11:06:56 GMT
Just looking at the stadium on google maps, there are probably 2 options if we are going to remain - Leave for 2 seasons, completely knock down. rotate pitch and move east into middle of the plot and build a complete new stadium. Most costly and disruptive. Like the idea of revisiting student accommodation to help fund. - Rebuild the east stand full length of the pitch. Then build a stand on the north terrace, over the footprint of the bar and current fanzone. These 2 stands would need facilities to maximise revenue. Corporate, bars and non-matchday focussed (gym, restaurant etc) Do what we can with the other 2 sides so it doesnt look awful. Shifting the pitch a couple of meters north should enable a better temp south stand Not sure why I am doing this, bored i guess, we know its not happening. If the front row of seats in all stands started at say 12 feet above pitch level then this should increase the area available for bars, rooms etc. Plus better sight line for spectators? Bored as well here. |
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Post by gashead1981 on Jan 24, 2023 11:31:53 GMT
Redevoping the Mem isn't an option, how many more times does this have to be said?? What makes you think it isn't an option? Just because WAQ said it isn't an option, doesn't actually mean that much. The Mem footprint is the same as Ashton Gate all bar 100m2 Plenty of room to develop, and with the new train station just down the road, it suddenly becomes more attractive. Because the numbers simply dont add up and there would be too many restrictions. I've done these rough maths before and ill do them again. To develop the mem based on a Brentfords stadium where you knock it down, relocate it on the plot somewhere would be in excess of £70m. Factor in that we wont be able to play at the mem for 18 months-2 years means we will have to go and ground share - Cost of that would be about £2-3m PA. Factor in loss of matchday income streams from that period like hospitality, food, drink, car parking, and we are talking another £1.5m PA So you are talking a net cost of around £80m to rebuild the mem. You will probably be limited on licencing laws meaning you wont be able to be like an "arena" in the summer for concerts and shows, limited on parking, crap public transport even with the new smaller station somewhere down Glos Road. The ROI just isnt there to make it viable. If you aquire some land, build a stadium for the same cost but can still continue at the Mem, You cut out a significant portion of losses. Also the mem site is prime site for housing. Around a 1/3 of your relocation and build costs can be raised from the sale of that plot. You are talking £30-40m worth of savings by relocating the stadium. |
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Post by gashead1981 on Jan 24, 2023 11:47:02 GMT
So I've done a thing. I've found out how much residential building land value is in Bristol (2019 figures), it was £3.25M/ha. (land registry figures) The Mem is just a fraction under 3 Ha, (measured on google earth) so in 2019 its value was - give or take - a little under £10M. If we use an average of 10% increase in price, year on year, then : June 2019 =£10M June 2020 = £11M June 2021 = £12.1M June 2022 = £13.3M June 2023 = £14.65M The actual increase has fluctuated, and been a little under 10%, but it keeps the maths simple. (taken from an average shown on several different websites.) So even if land was donated to the the cause, the cost of building a stadium either has to remain under £15M or extra capital has to realised to meet costs over £15M Or stay at the Mem, keep hold of the land and try to raise (by whatever means) the investment to build a new stadium, bit by bit. Land in South Gloucs is a little cheaper, but not by much. There will also be a desireability index to those figures based on what can be built on that land and the ROI on it. Its a bit like house prices. A 4 bed in Clifton will not be the same cost as a 4 bed in Knowle. |
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Post by heartofgas on Jan 24, 2023 11:54:57 GMT
Out of interest What is is that we can't have at a redeveloped mem that makes it commercially unviable? Any form of industrial commercial opportunity. Any form of music concerts or events where there would be significant noise pollution. Decent parking facilities to cope with additional matchday attendance or any other event like the above. Hotels - why do you need a hotel at the top of Glos Rd? Its miles away from any landmarks in the City. Poor public transport and road networks. Why do you need hotels in filton, emersons green, Arnos vale, M48 services etc? People stay at hotels for all sorts of reasons. if it's for work most people wouldn't want to stay on the centre as parking is very expensive. New train station near by, Southmead hospital near by. |
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Post by Quarters on Jan 24, 2023 12:07:29 GMT
Any form of industrial commercial opportunity. Any form of music concerts or events where there would be significant noise pollution. Decent parking facilities to cope with additional matchday attendance or any other event like the above. Hotels - why do you need a hotel at the top of Glos Rd? Its miles away from any landmarks in the City. Poor public transport and road networks. Why do you need hotels in filton, emersons green, Arnos vale, M48 services etc? People stay at hotels for all sorts of reasons. if it's for work most people wouldn't want to stay on the centre as parking is very expensive. New train station near by, Southmead hospital near by. Maybe because you can get to other places quite quickly from those locations. For example from Emersons next to ring road meaning close to M32/M4, can also head towards Bath. Filton must be close to lots of businesses and M5. |
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Post by playtowin on Jan 24, 2023 12:28:49 GMT
Why do you need hotels in filton, emersons green, Arnos vale, M48 services etc? People stay at hotels for all sorts of reasons. if it's for work most people wouldn't want to stay on the centre as parking is very expensive. New train station near by, Southmead hospital near by. Maybe because you can get to other places quite quickly from those locations. For example from Emersons next to ring road meaning close to M32/M4, can also head towards Bath. Filton must be close to lots of businesses and M5. Is there not a hotel out on the ring road at hambrook and abbeywood and by the willy wicket pub ? Think thats it then till the beeches in bris. Or is there one at longwell green ? |
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Post by darkbluegas on Jan 24, 2023 12:43:18 GMT
I think if it was financially viable in Bristol it would have been done years ago. Even Pantsdown couldn't make it work with his limitless tax free Guernsey money. I think if you tendered to build the stadium for 60 million the club would bite your hand off and most of your arm with it. Without funding well beyond Wael's capacity it won't be happening here I'm afraid. In the meantime our actual home is on a spiral of decay which will potentially see it's capacity reduced year on year I think Lansdown's problem wasn't money. It was because we have a law that allowed a bloke, who's dog once took a sh*t on a piece of grass near the proposed stadium, stop a multimillion pound development. I would agree about money on that piece of scrub land he wanted. He did also realise there were no other financially viable options in Bristol. If the brown field site at the Fruit Market made any financial sense he would have been all over that. He wasn't stupid in his approach to the Long Ashton site either, knowing that a managed approach during it's refusal would gain brownie points with the planners/council on the site at the swamp he did own |
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Post by gasandelectricity on Jan 24, 2023 12:45:33 GMT
Filton - offices and warehouses
Emersons green - offices and warehouses
Mem - a stadium and that’s about it. If you wanted to stay on Gloucester Road for a knees up you’d want to be roughly where it meets Cheltenham Road.
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Post by Smithy Gas on Jan 24, 2023 12:52:41 GMT
What makes you think it isn't an option? Just because WAQ said it isn't an option, doesn't actually mean that much. The Mem footprint is the same as Ashton Gate all bar 100m2 Plenty of room to develop, and with the new train station just down the road, it suddenly becomes more attractive. Because the numbers simply dont add up and there would be too many restrictions. I've done these rough maths before and ill do them again. To develop the mem based on a Brentfords stadium where you knock it down, relocate it on the plot somewhere would be in excess of £70m. Factor in that we wont be able to play at the mem for 18 months-2 years means we will have to go and ground share - Cost of that would be about £2-3m PA. Factor in loss of matchday income streams from that period like hospitality, food, drink, car parking, and we are talking another £1.5m PA So you are talking a net cost of around £80m to rebuild the mem. You will probably be limited on licencing laws meaning you wont be able to be like an "arena" in the summer for concerts and shows, limited on parking, crap public transport even with the new smaller station somewhere down Glos Road. The ROI just isnt there to make it viable. If you aquire some land, build a stadium for the same cost but can still continue at the Mem, You cut out a significant portion of losses. Also the mem site is prime site for housing. Around a 1/3 of your relocation and build costs can be raised from the sale of that plot. You are talking £30-40m worth of savings by relocating the stadium. Don't forget you save 20% VAT on new build costs as well - a fair old wedge on a multimillion pound build. I'd love the Mem but it doesn't stack up. The fruit market 10 minutes from my house therefore makes all sorts of sense... |
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Post by heartofgas on Jan 24, 2023 13:12:50 GMT
I think Lansdown's problem wasn't money. It was because we have a law that allowed a bloke, who's dog once took a sh*t on a piece of grass near the proposed stadium, stop a multimillion pound development. I would agree about money on that piece of scrub land he wanted. He did also realise there were no other financially viable options in Bristol. If the brown field site at the Fruit Market made any financial sense he would have been all over that. He wasn't stupid in his approach to the Long Ashton site either, knowing that a managed approach during it's refusal would gain brownie points with the planners/council on the site at the swamp he did own I think the only realistic areas where a stadium could be easily located is out avonmouth/cribs causeway. But that would mean transport for many would be a nightmare. Maybe Yate way also but we'd be a long way out of the city. |
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