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Post by supergas on Jul 24, 2024 10:20:04 GMT
Been thinking about this .Now the ERG is down to something like 20 Members after being near the 120 mark ( I think 🤔) . Do you think the one nation MP’s left who must hold the balance of power , engineer things to leave 2 leadership candidates who are moderates and leave the far right loons out of a membership vote ? On a scale of 1-10 with 10 being ERG-esque, I see Braverman as an 11, Badenoch 7, Jenrick and Patel 8. Cleverly in the middle at 5 with Tugendhat and Stride 1-2. I can see Braverman going to Reform if and when she realises she won't get the gig. Cleverly probably the one with enough cross party support. Hopefully two pragmatic candidates in the final selection. Shades of 1997/2001/2003 again...tricky to find someone who can satisfy both the Conservative (large C) and conservative (small c) elements of the party as well as win enough votes from the electorate in 2029 unless Labour screw up badly...
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Post by stuart1974 on Jul 24, 2024 10:38:18 GMT
On a scale of 1-10 with 10 being ERG-esque, I see Braverman as an 11, Badenoch 7, Jenrick and Patel 8. Cleverly in the middle at 5 with Tugendhat and Stride 1-2. I can see Braverman going to Reform if and when she realises she won't get the gig. Cleverly probably the one with enough cross party support. Hopefully two pragmatic candidates in the final selection. Shades of 1997/2001/2003 again...tricky to find someone who can satisfy both the Conservative (large C) and conservative (small c) elements of the party as well as win enough votes from the electorate in 2029 unless Labour screw up badly... Will this be a placeholder or a genuine chance to challenge at the next election? Starmer was supposed to be the former, wasn't he? Looked like Labour would need two election cycles to recover but thanks to Conservative implosion he did it much quicker.
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Post by supergas on Jul 24, 2024 11:44:52 GMT
Shades of 1997/2001/2003 again...tricky to find someone who can satisfy both the Conservative (large C) and conservative (small c) elements of the party as well as win enough votes from the electorate in 2029 unless Labour screw up badly... Will this be a placeholder or a genuine chance to challenge at the next election? Starmer was supposed to be the former, wasn't he? Looked like Labour would need two election cycles to recover but thanks to Conservative implosion he did it much quicker. No idea. You'd assume the party would have learnt from the Blair Opposition years but who knows. The delay is stupid though, it lets Labour get away with so much without any serious challenge (except from within their own party and from one minor opposition party...) As for the Labour recovery, it took two election cycles (2015-2024) from when Corbyn was elected leader to winning again - they were always likely to win again and it probably would have been 2019(ish) if Miliband (D) or another sensible candidate had won the leadership campaign in 2015. So I guess we wait and see what happens with Labour under Starmer/his successor...
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Post by stuart1974 on Jul 24, 2024 16:52:31 GMT
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Post by yattongas on Jul 24, 2024 16:55:37 GMT
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Post by stuart1974 on Jul 24, 2024 20:39:53 GMT
"Seven would-be contenders have served notice that they want to enter the race for the Tory leadership.
No great surprises. In alphabetical order, they're Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, Mel Stride and Tom Tugendhat.
A shadow cabinet member told Sky News, however, that only five – Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick, Patel and Tugendhat - are "serious candidates". Harsh, but probably true.
Although Mr Cleverly was the only candidate to announce before nominations opened at 7pm on Wednesday that he's running, the others all confirmed their intention to stand.
They did so by requesting a "nomination pack" from 1922 Committee chairman Bob Blackman, who last week won a battle against officials inside party HQ who wanted a quick contest.
The pack includes details of how the contest will be run and the rules. For instance, no MP may nominate more than one candidate. If they do, the second nomination is invalid.
Another rule is that the candidates must not agree to take part in any televised hustings unless arranged by new interim party chairman Richard Fuller, which seems rather petty and bureaucratic.
With parliament rising for the summer next Tuesday, candidates validly nominated before the deadline Monday will be voted on by MPs when they return to Westminster in September until there are four left in the race.
Those four will then take part in a "beauty contest" at the Tory conference in Birmingham, which starts on 29 September, and then MPs will choose the final two in the first week back at Westminster again on 7 October.
That was always Mr Blackman's favoured timetable. It means Rishi Sunak has more than 14 weeks left as acting leader – and potentially six more PMQs - against Sir Keir Starmer before handing over to his successor."
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Post by supergas on Jul 25, 2024 8:06:26 GMT
"Seven would-be contenders have served notice that they want to enter the race for the Tory leadership. No great surprises. In alphabetical order, they're Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, Mel Stride and Tom Tugendhat. A shadow cabinet member told Sky News, however, that only five – Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick, Patel and Tugendhat - are "serious candidates". Harsh, but probably true. Although Mr Cleverly was the only candidate to announce before nominations opened at 7pm on Wednesday that he's running, the others all confirmed their intention to stand. They did so by requesting a "nomination pack" from 1922 Committee chairman Bob Blackman, who last week won a battle against officials inside party HQ who wanted a quick contest. The pack includes details of how the contest will be run and the rules. For instance, no MP may nominate more than one candidate. If they do, the second nomination is invalid. Another rule is that the candidates must not agree to take part in any televised hustings unless arranged by new interim party chairman Richard Fuller, which seems rather petty and bureaucratic. With parliament rising for the summer next Tuesday, candidates validly nominated before the deadline Monday will be voted on by MPs when they return to Westminster in September until there are four left in the race. Those four will then take part in a "beauty contest" at the Tory conference in Birmingham, which starts on 29 September, and then MPs will choose the final two in the first week back at Westminster again on 7 October. That was always Mr Blackman's favoured timetable. It means Rishi Sunak has more than 14 weeks left as acting leader – and potentially six more PMQs - against Sir Keir Starmer before handing over to his successor." Tugendhat and Cleverly seem to be initially strong in terms of MPs working with them during the campaign. Badenoch and Braverman were top in a public poll of party members. The dark horse is Jenrick who apparently (based on a rumored private poll of party members) beats most of the other candidates in a head-to-head finale amongst the wider party membership... [edit] the only problem being he probably won't make it to the membership vote...
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Post by yattongas on Jul 25, 2024 15:15:55 GMT
"Seven would-be contenders have served notice that they want to enter the race for the Tory leadership. No great surprises. In alphabetical order, they're Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, Mel Stride and Tom Tugendhat. A shadow cabinet member told Sky News, however, that only five – Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick, Patel and Tugendhat - are "serious candidates". Harsh, but probably true. Although Mr Cleverly was the only candidate to announce before nominations opened at 7pm on Wednesday that he's running, the others all confirmed their intention to stand. They did so by requesting a "nomination pack" from 1922 Committee chairman Bob Blackman, who last week won a battle against officials inside party HQ who wanted a quick contest. The pack includes details of how the contest will be run and the rules. For instance, no MP may nominate more than one candidate. If they do, the second nomination is invalid. Another rule is that the candidates must not agree to take part in any televised hustings unless arranged by new interim party chairman Richard Fuller, which seems rather petty and bureaucratic. With parliament rising for the summer next Tuesday, candidates validly nominated before the deadline Monday will be voted on by MPs when they return to Westminster in September until there are four left in the race. Those four will then take part in a "beauty contest" at the Tory conference in Birmingham, which starts on 29 September, and then MPs will choose the final two in the first week back at Westminster again on 7 October. That was always Mr Blackman's favoured timetable. It means Rishi Sunak has more than 14 weeks left as acting leader – and potentially six more PMQs - against Sir Keir Starmer before handing over to his successor." Tugendhat and Cleverly seem to be initially strong in terms of MPs working with them during the campaign. Badenoch and Braverman were top in a public poll of party members. The dark horse is Jenrick who apparently (based on a rumored private poll of party members) beats most of the other candidates in a head-to-head finale amongst the wider party membership... [edit] the only problem being he probably won't make it to the membership vote... Braverman might struggle to get the 8 MP’s needed to back her apparently.
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Post by stuart1974 on Jul 25, 2024 15:49:07 GMT
Tugendhat and Cleverly seem to be initially strong in terms of MPs working with them during the campaign. Badenoch and Braverman were top in a public poll of party members. The dark horse is Jenrick who apparently (based on a rumored private poll of party members) beats most of the other candidates in a head-to-head finale amongst the wider party membership... [edit] the only problem being he probably won't make it to the membership vote... Braverman might struggle to get the 8 MP’s needed to back her apparently. Hope so. Jenrick is probably the one who will make the most of the ECHR issue, the others probably will just pay lip service to it for internal reasons.
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Post by supergas on Jul 26, 2024 4:49:33 GMT
Tugendhat's original website read (my emphasis but it was formatted like this) :
Together we can, Unite the party. Rebuild trust. Defeat Labour.
...the last line has now been changed to "Win back the country"...
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Post by yattongas on Jul 26, 2024 5:56:44 GMT
Tugendhat's original website read (my emphasis but it was formatted like this) : Together we can, Unite the party. Rebuild trust. Defeat Labour. ...the last line has now been changed to " Win back the country"... 😂👍
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Post by yattongas on Jul 26, 2024 5:57:38 GMT
Braverman might struggle to get the 8 MP’s needed to back her apparently. Hope so. Jenrick is probably the one who will make the most of the ECHR issue, the others probably will just pay lip service to it for internal reasons. Sorry got that slightly wrong, she needs 10 but apparently only has 8 backers .
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Post by supergas on Jul 26, 2024 10:33:44 GMT
Hope so. Jenrick is probably the one who will make the most of the ECHR issue, the others probably will just pay lip service to it for internal reasons. Sorry got that slightly wrong, she needs 10 but apparently only has 8 backers . Have any of them got 8/10 confirmed backers yet ? In terms of named MPs supporting them I've only seen 3 or 4 for each...
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Post by yattongas on Jul 26, 2024 11:34:34 GMT
Sorry got that slightly wrong, she needs 10 but apparently only has 8 backers . Have any of them got 8/10 confirmed backers yet ? In terms of named MPs supporting them I've only seen 3 or 4 for each... Not confirmed . That’s the thing with your mob , they’re all treacherous bastards who’ll happily stitch up each other and play nefarious games ! 😂
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Post by aghast on Jul 26, 2024 21:45:42 GMT
Have any of them got 8/10 confirmed backers yet ? In terms of named MPs supporting them I've only seen 3 or 4 for each... Not confirmed . That’s the thing with your mob , they’re all treacherous bastards who’ll happily stitch up each other and play nefarious games ! 😂 It must be hard for the 'natural party of government', as they used to love describing themselves, being reduced to a minority interest.
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Post by supergas on Jul 27, 2024 7:36:39 GMT
Have any of them got 8/10 confirmed backers yet ? In terms of named MPs supporting them I've only seen 3 or 4 for each... Not confirmed . That’s the thing with your mob , they’re all treacherous bastards who’ll happily stitch up each other and play nefarious games ! 😂 It's an important decision - you don't want to mess around, nominate someone like Corbyn "...to keep it interesting..." and have them drag the party backwards by four decades...
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Post by yattongas on Jul 27, 2024 7:59:19 GMT
Not confirmed . That’s the thing with your mob , they’re all treacherous bastards who’ll happily stitch up each other and play nefarious games ! 😂 It's an important decision - you don't want to mess around, nominate someone like Corbyn "...to keep it interesting..." and have them drag the party backwards by four decades... Is that why Labour are in power now a few yrs later ? 🙄😂
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Post by supergas on Jul 27, 2024 9:08:59 GMT
It's an important decision - you don't want to mess around, nominate someone like Corbyn "...to keep it interesting..." and have them drag the party backwards by four decades... Is that why Labour are in power now a few yrs later ? 🙄😂 It's why they weren't in 2017 and 2019...
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Post by yattongas on Jul 27, 2024 10:31:36 GMT
Is that why Labour are in power now a few yrs later ? 🙄😂 It's why they weren't in 2017 and 2019... My maths isn’t great but I’m pretty sure that isn’t 4 decades.
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Post by supergas on Jul 27, 2024 10:59:34 GMT
It's why they weren't in 2017 and 2019... My maths isn’t great but I’m pretty sure that isn’t 4 decades. Corbyn [edit] politically took them back four decades. So from the late 2010s that puts the party back into the realms of the late 1970s - where they went on to lose four elections in a row (79/83/87/92)...
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