US 2024 Election

Harris is going to win. Pennsylvania is in the bag , you know this because Trump is already claiming there’s cheating going on there. It’s not hard to read between the lines.
Also Nevada going Democrat 👍

No chance ! lol 😂 

Honestly don’t think we’ll get the result for at least a week .

Trump 4/7
Harris 11/8

Paddy power.
Suggest you Democrats start lumping on.

Depends how close it is in which of the key states, plus how big the share of postal ballots is. Most of the states won't be close and so their results will be called pretty quickly (even before all ballots are counted - they will know the difference between the two totals and know how many are left meaning the result is effectively confirmed). 

The seven swing states will take longer and not just because they are close. Most people in Nevada vote by mail and the ballots can arrive as late as Saturday and still be valid. Pennsylvania is also historically slower than some at counting and predictions are it could be Thursday before they declare (especially if the margin is close). Arizona pre-counts early postal ballots but then holds those received in the last 48 hours and counts them last - their officials say these ballots (20% of the total) could take more than a week to count and so if it's close the state might not be called until the following week. North Carolina is also facing disruption post Hurricane Helene and again could take a week to count and verify the various postal/mail-in ballots.

That's not to say predictions won't be made on the night of/the morning after the election. They will use their models to compare known results with predictions against various demographics and extrapolate from there. 

This guy has a good track record and is calling it for KH.

news.sky.com/story/us-election-trump-kamala-harris-latest-live-13209921?postid=8564388#liveblog-body

Nonsense, I've read elsewhere Trump is going to win by a landslide, both the popular vote and electoral college votes. 😁

You remember that European Army we were scared into voting Brexit for? Well, Trump will undermine Nato, adding tariffs and ITAR restrictions will result in Europe working more closely and interdependently than ever.

After the Suez debacle, we felt our reliance should be staying close to Washington, Paris took the view they should become self reliant under de Gaulle. Up until Trump we probably had it right, however Trump will prove de Gaulle right.

I quite like the Electoral College system. Without it many states would basically become irrelevant and the candidates would focus on the large cities and ignore a lot of what the middle of the country cares about

He was on the ABC here a few weeks ago and the hosts were apparently unable to question him on specific keys. They did debate it afterwards though and even if you believe his system you have to ask if these are the correct calls:


Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE

There was no 'contest' - but the sitting President was standing until the party (not him) decided he was not competent to run again and they had to replace him


Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE

Many in the US are feeling like it is in recession even if it's technically not. And it still technically might enter recession soon...


Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE


As well as the 'contest' issue the Bided administration has had a lot of small ones - not a 'major' one but when you pile them all up together...


His system predicts two more 'keys' turning false means Trump is favourite - and it's easy to argue three could be false but he's decided they're not...