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Post by supergas on Aug 17, 2024 9:23:00 GMT
This time unless Trump does something (or the Democrats find someone) to move states that have recently voted the same way at election after election, then Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will basically decide who is the next President... Nevada (6) latest polling: Trump 45 Harris 43Arizona (11) latest polling: Trump 48 Harris 45Georgia (16) latest polling: Trump 48 Harris 46
Pennsylvania (19) latest polling: Harris 47 Trump 47
Michigan (15) latest polling: Harris 46 Trump 44 Wisconsin (10) latest polling: Harris 47 Trump 47
Still basically a toss-up, Democrats should gain a bit after the VP announcement and due to their convention...Nate Silver has one of the most accurate statistical models, weighting in favour of those more likely to vote, allowing for the third party candidate dropping out, as well as adjusting for known polling biases and weighting in favour of those pollsters with more accurate recent results... ...if the election was today Harris would win enough swing states to become President, but a lot of these are still within the margin of error... Nevada (6) Nate Silver average: Harris 45.0% Trump 44.3% Arizona (11) Nate Silver average: Harris 45.2% Trump 44.0% Georgia (16) Nate Silver average: Trump 46.3% Harris 45.4%
Pennsylvania (19) Nate Silver average: Harris 46.6% Trump 44.7%
Michigan (15) Nate Silver average: Harris 46.0% Trump 43.1%Wisconsin (10) Nate Silver average: Harris 47.3% Trump 44.1%
North Carolina (16) Nate Silver average: Trump 46.3% Harris 45.5%
Virginia (13) Nate Silver average: Harris 46.9% Trump 42.3%
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Aug 18, 2024 9:58:28 GMT
Trump looking like he could now lose the upcoming election. Obvs he’s not going to accept the results and expect him to start ramping up messaging thats he’s winning in swing states thats he’s actually losing in . ‘His’ polls show he’s winning etc etc
He’s got a load of state officials in place in various places to help him steal votes .
Lots of dodgy stuff to come in the next 4 months. Should be fun if you like that sort of thing. 🙄
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Post by supergas on Aug 18, 2024 11:26:15 GMT
Trump looking like he could now lose the upcoming election. Obvs he’s not going to accept the results and expect him to start ramping up messaging thats he’s winning in swing states thats he’s actually losing in . ‘His’ polls show he’s winning etc etc He’s got a load of state officials in place in various places to help him steal votes . Lots of dodgy stuff to come in the next 4 months. Should be fun if you like that sort of thing. 🙄 What makes you think Harris will win? Yes the polls are moving in her favour at a national level but there is still all to play for in the next two-and-a-half months... ...a huge chunk depends on the Democratic convention (both what is actually said and how the media frame it) and then the debate(s?), the first of which comes up pretty quickly afterwards. So far we've got little or no policy information from her, no proper interviews (ie anything unscripted) and there are quite a few people who think her polling numbers are soft... |
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Aug 18, 2024 11:29:51 GMT
Trump looking like he could now lose the upcoming election. Obvs he’s not going to accept the results and expect him to start ramping up messaging thats he’s winning in swing states thats he’s actually losing in . ‘His’ polls show he’s winning etc etc He’s got a load of state officials in place in various places to help him steal votes . Lots of dodgy stuff to come in the next 4 months. Should be fun if you like that sort of thing. 🙄 What makes you think Harris will win? Yes the polls are moving in her favour at a national level but there is still all to play for in the next two-and-a-half months... ...a huge chunk depends on the Democratic convention (both what is actually said and how the media frame it) and then the debate(s?), the first of which comes up pretty quickly afterwards. So far we've got little or no policy information from her, no proper interviews (ie anything unscripted) and there are quite a few people who think her polling numbers are soft... Momentum is everything. Starmer proved you can be policy light and get elected. That’s not my question though, it’s if and when Trump loses what games will he and his acolytes play to try to claim the win ? Because as sure as eggs are eggs he won’t accept defeat. |
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Post by supergas on Aug 18, 2024 11:31:37 GMT
...incidentally, if Trump takes Nevada, Georgia and Arizona as well as all the 'safer' Republican states he's on 268 Electoral College votes (not unlikely at all) the best Harris can get to is 268 as well - a tie...then it goes to the House of Representatives where each state group (not each elected member) gets to vote for a candidate and they decide who becomes President...
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Post by supergas on Aug 18, 2024 11:58:31 GMT
What makes you think Harris will win? Yes the polls are moving in her favour at a national level but there is still all to play for in the next two-and-a-half months... ...a huge chunk depends on the Democratic convention (both what is actually said and how the media frame it) and then the debate(s?), the first of which comes up pretty quickly afterwards. So far we've got little or no policy information from her, no proper interviews (ie anything unscripted) and there are quite a few people who think her polling numbers are soft... Momentum is everything. Starmer proved you can be policy light and get elected. That’s not my question though, it’s if and when Trump loses what games will he and his acolytes play to try to claim the win ? Because as sure as eggs are eggs he won’t accept defeat. Everyone will be better prepared this time, from lawyers on all sides to law enforcement at all levels. Plus his own side will almost certainly be briefed on what could happen if they try to go beyond legal means if they don't like the result. |
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Aug 18, 2024 12:03:09 GMT
Momentum is everything. Starmer proved you can be policy light and get elected. That’s not my question though, it’s if and when Trump loses what games will he and his acolytes play to try to claim the win ? Because as sure as eggs are eggs he won’t accept defeat. Everyone will be better prepared this time, from lawyers on all sides to law enforcement at all levels. Plus his own side will almost certainly be briefed on what could happen if they try to go beyond legal means if they don't like the result. You think so ? From what I’ve read and heard he’s got his own people into positions that will try and gerrymander things so their guys ‘ wins’ . Think it’s very naive if you think he won’t go down without a fight |
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Post by baggins on Aug 29, 2024 12:10:55 GMT
Every now and again my youtube feed points me in the direction of watching Trump losing the plot and Harris wiping the floor with him at convention attendances and major celebrity endorsements.
She's doing well in several States that were strong Republican areas.
Not long to go, think she'll do it?
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Aug 29, 2024 19:00:48 GMT
Every now and again my youtube feed points me in the direction of watching Trump losing the plot and Harris wiping the floor with him at convention attendances and major celebrity endorsements. She's doing well in several States that were strong Republican areas. Not long to go, think she'll do it? Said right at the start she’d win, now I’d be surprised if she lost. |
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Post by supergas on Aug 30, 2024 10:33:33 GMT
Every now and again my youtube feed points me in the direction of watching Trump losing the plot and Harris wiping the floor with him at convention attendances and major celebrity endorsements. She's doing well in several States that were strong Republican areas. Not long to go, think she'll do it? If she can get Democrats to turnout in the swing states she will win. If Trump can get Republicans to turnout in the swing states it could go either way. Harris will almost certainly win the popular vote but she needs those crucial states to win the Electoral College. The debate will be crucial in some ways. Trump could easily come across badly and ruin his chances, but that also means expectations for him are lowered - he doesn't need to 'win' the debate to impress, just not look like an idiot... ....on the flip side, we're still waiting for proper policies from Harris. To get the turnout she needs she probably only has to be "...not Trump..." but if he starts coming out with more policies that are popular she has to reply with something. Currently I think it's 50:50. Either could win or lose easily from this point. My instinct is Trump's team are trying to stop him doing something that could lose the election, whilst everyone else is waiting for Harris to actually start trying to win it... |
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Post by supergas on Sept 10, 2024 11:22:07 GMT
It's the second Presidential debate tonight but the first between the two actual candidates standing for election on November 5th.
Only the moderators are asking questions - no questions are given to the candidates in advance. Two minute answers, followed by two minute rebuttals, followed by 60 seconds of clarifications from either side or the moderators. No audience and candidates microphones will be off when it is not their turn to speak. Candidates cannot therefore directly interact with each other.
No audience favours Harris. Microphones off when its not their turn favours Trump (he might say otherwise but it's what his campaign team wanted).
Will it decide the election? No. Will it shape how the rest of the election plays out? 100%
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Post by aghast on Sept 10, 2024 15:57:43 GMT
I would expect Harris to wipe the floor with Trump but then I thought the same about Hillary Clinton and he got her really rattled. If being an annoying rude insensitive crass chancer is what is needed to be President, then it's Donald's for the taking.
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Post by baggins on Sept 10, 2024 16:34:06 GMT
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Sept 10, 2024 16:37:12 GMT
I would expect Harris to wipe the floor with Trump but then I thought the same about Hillary Clinton and he got her really rattled. If being an annoying rude insensitive crass chancer is what is needed to be President, then it's Donald's for the taking. Works for me 😃 |
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Post by yattongas on Sept 11, 2024 6:49:07 GMT
Taylor Swift endorses Harris and Trump loses the debate. Game over ?
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Sept 11, 2024 6:59:40 GMT
Taylor Swift endorses Harris and Trump loses the debate. Game over ? Hope so, but there is still time. Immigrants eating pets? Reminded me of those swan rumours here all those years ago. |
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Sept 11, 2024 7:08:44 GMT
Taylor Swift endorses Harris and Trump loses the debate. Game over ? Hope so, but there is still time. Immigrants eating pets? Reminded me of those swan rumours here all those years ago. Remind me ? 🦢 |
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Post by trevorgas on Sept 11, 2024 7:10:33 GMT
Taylor Swift endorses Harris and Trump loses the debate. Game over ? Hope so, but there is still time. Immigrants eating pets? Reminded me of those swan rumours here all those years ago. Not so sure ,there are a significant number of Americans who in their eyes Trump can do no wrong,I will wait to see the polls in the 7 key states before drawing any conclusions. Danger for Harris is that whilst she performed well in the cold light of day she articulated no depth in her thinking on key issues, performance over substance. |
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Sept 11, 2024 7:23:05 GMT
Hope so, but there is still time. Immigrants eating pets? Reminded me of those swan rumours here all those years ago. Not so sure ,there are a significant number of Americans who in their eyes Trump can do no wrong,I will wait to see the polls in the 7 key states before drawing any conclusions. Danger for Harris is that whilst she performed well in the cold light of day she articulated no depth in her thinking on key issues, performance over substance. Exactly. Dominic Waghorn on Sky saw this as a Harris win but not significantly so. Trump rambled but didn't implode. |
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Sept 11, 2024 7:25:35 GMT
Hope so, but there is still time. Immigrants eating pets? Reminded me of those swan rumours here all those years ago. Remind me ? 🦢 A tabloid ran a story that Eastern European migrants (Express and Romanians in mid noughties?) had killed and ate swans from a local park. No truth in it at all but lots believed it. |
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