stuart1974
Proper Gas
Posts: 12,538 
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Post by stuart1974 on Sept 19, 2024 10:01:28 GMT
...a few of the swing states are moving...the numbers don't directly translate to my previous post as the third party candidate has now dropped out of the race, so I have underlined the candidate who has gained the most in the last few weeks - no underline means it's still pretty much the same: Nevada (6 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50% Trump 50% Arizona (11 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.5% Harris 49.5% Georgia (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.4% Harris 49.6%
Pennsylvania (19 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.1% Trump 49.9%
Michigan (15 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.7% Trump 49.3%Wisconsin (10 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51.0% Trump 49.0%
North Carolina (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.3% Harris 49.7%
Virginia (13 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 54.% Trump 46.0%
Interestingly Texas (40 electoral votes) and Florida (30 electoral votes) have both closed up (since we dropped down to two candidates and since VPs were announced/conventions have been held). Trump is still likely to win both but if Harris can win either of them that's basically the whole ball game. Currently Trump leads in Texas with 53% and Florida with 52.3%
Let's see what's changed. Even if the numbers do not yet reflect the final results the trends show where we are heading... Nevada (6 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51% (+1%) Trump 49%Arizona (11 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.4% (+0.9%) Trump 49.6%
Georgia (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.5% (+0.9%) Trump 49.5%
Pennsylvania (19 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51.1% (+1.0%) Trump 48.9%
Michigan (15 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51.6% (+0.9%) Trump 48.4%Wisconsin (10 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51.6% (+0.6%) Trump 48.4%
North Carolina (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.3% (+0.7%) Trump 49.7%
Virginia (13 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 55.0% (+1.0%) Trump 45.0%
According to the polling, in the space of one week it's gone from one of the closest Electoral College votes in history to all eight swing states going Democrat
Good, still too close though. |
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Post by supergas on Sept 20, 2024 5:46:30 GMT
Let's see what's changed. Even if the numbers do not yet reflect the final results the trends show where we are heading... Nevada (6 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51% (+1%) Trump 49%Arizona (11 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.4% (+0.9%) Trump 49.6%
Georgia (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.5% (+0.9%) Trump 49.5%
Pennsylvania (19 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51.1% (+1.0%) Trump 48.9%
Michigan (15 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51.6% (+0.9%) Trump 48.4%Wisconsin (10 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51.6% (+0.6%) Trump 48.4%
North Carolina (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.3% (+0.7%) Trump 49.7%
Virginia (13 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 55.0% (+1.0%) Trump 45.0%
According to the polling, in the space of one week it's gone from one of the closest Electoral College votes in history to all eight swing states going Democrat
Good, still too close though. It's headed in her direction, now it's up to her team and her to build on that momentum. If they make it all positive, about her and her policies it could quickly become a landslide. If there are unexpected twists and turns who knows... |
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Post by yattongas on Oct 7, 2024 16:32:02 GMT
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Post by supergas on Oct 8, 2024 9:39:57 GMT
Nevada (6 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51% (+1%) Trump 49%Arizona (11 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.4% (+0.9%) Trump 49.6%
Georgia (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.5% (+0.9%) Trump 49.5%
Pennsylvania (19 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51.1% (+1.0%) Trump 48.9%
Michigan (15 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51.6% (+0.9%) Trump 48.4%Wisconsin (10 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 51.6% (+0.6%) Trump 48.4%
North Carolina (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.3% (+0.7%) Trump 49.7%
Virginia (13 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 55.0% (+1.0%) Trump 45.0%
Twenty-eight days to go to the election. Despite the long build-up, most of the campaign money is spent in the final weeks of the campaign - and so although postal ballots are already starting to be cast, plenty can and normally will change...but where do the swing states stand today? Nevada ( 6 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.5% (-0.5%) Trump 49.5%Arizona (11 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.6% (+1.0%) Harris 49.4%
Georgia (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.5% (+1.0%) Harris 49.5%
Pennsylvania (19 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.4% (-0.7%) Trump 49.6%
Michigan (15 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.9% (-0.7%) Trump 49.1%Wisconsin ( 10 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.8% (-0.8%) Trump 49.2%
North Carolina (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.4% (+0.7%) Harris 49.6%
Virginia (13 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 54.1% (-0.9%) Trump 45.9%
In the last three weeks Trump has moved back into the lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Not enough to win the electoral college but momentum has been swinging back in his direction across all of the swing states, although all still to play for on both sides -including his 'home' state of Florida which is now technically within the margin of error...
Florida (30 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 52.0% Harris 48.%
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Post by supergas on Oct 15, 2024 11:12:46 GMT
Back in June I placed a $5 bet on Gavin Newsom to win the Presidential election (8/1) - my instinct was right that Biden would not be the Democratic nominee and at the time he was positioning himself well. Still, -$5...
After the Biden/Trump debate I placed $10 on Harris at 7/1 to win the election. The cash-out value got as high as $35 but today I took +$27.20. Too risky to let it fall any further.
I can't bring myself to bet on Trump at 4/6 but if there are any signs Harris is regaining ground I might back her again - I suspect she needs Trump to make a huge mis-step though to turn it around in the last few weeks...
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Post by yattongas on Oct 15, 2024 11:16:31 GMT
Back in June I placed a $5 bet on Gavin Newsom to win the Presidential election (8/1) - my instinct was right that Biden would not be the Democratic nominee and at the time he was positioning himself well. Still, -$5... After the Biden/Trump debate I placed $10 on Harris at 7/1 to win the election. The cash-out value got as high as $35 but today I took +$27.20 . Too risky to let it fall any further.
I can't bring myself to bet on Trump at 4/6 but if there are any signs Harris is regaining ground I might back her again - I suspect she needs Trump to make a huge mis-step though to turn it around in the last few weeks...
Trump and his acolytes will contest every vote count in every precinct in the swing states. They will try and cheat , they will do whatever to win and if they don’t there will be violence again. Sad but wholly predictable ☹️ |
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Post by supergas on Oct 15, 2024 11:31:40 GMT
Back in June I placed a $5 bet on Gavin Newsom to win the Presidential election (8/1) - my instinct was right that Biden would not be the Democratic nominee and at the time he was positioning himself well. Still, -$5... After the Biden/Trump debate I placed $10 on Harris at 7/1 to win the election. The cash-out value got as high as $35 but today I took +$27.20 . Too risky to let it fall any further.
I can't bring myself to bet on Trump at 4/6 but if there are any signs Harris is regaining ground I might back her again - I suspect she needs Trump to make a huge mis-step though to turn it around in the last few weeks...
Trump and his acolytes will contest every vote count in every precinct in the swing states. They will try and cheat , they will do whatever to win and if they don’t there will be violence again. Sad but wholly predictable ☹️ At this rate he will win it outright... |
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Post by yattongas on Oct 15, 2024 12:23:26 GMT
Trump and his acolytes will contest every vote count in every precinct in the swing states. They will try and cheat , they will do whatever to win and if they don’t there will be violence again. Sad but wholly predictable ☹️ At this rate he will win it outright... Nope . If he wins he wins by a small percentage at best. |
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Post by supergas on Oct 16, 2024 8:24:00 GMT
At this rate he will win it outright... Nope . If he wins he wins by a small percentage at best. Small percentages across the seven swing states could lead to a big electoral college victory. It's looking more and more likely he will win Nevada, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina and is well within the margin of error of the other swing states. Could be 270-268, but could also easily be 302-236 if he picks up Michigan and Pennsylvania... |
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Post by yattongas on Oct 16, 2024 9:26:49 GMT
Nope . If he wins he wins by a small percentage at best. Small percentages across the seven swing states could lead to a big electoral college victory. It's looking more and more likely he will win Nevada, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina and is well within the margin of error of the other swing states. Could be 270-268, but could also easily be 302-236 if he picks up Michigan and Pennsylvania... Not gonna happen |
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Post by supergas on Oct 17, 2024 6:36:57 GMT
Small percentages across the seven swing states could lead to a big electoral college victory. It's looking more and more likely he will win Nevada, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina and is well within the margin of error of the other swing states. Could be 270-268, but could also easily be 302-236 if he picks up Michigan and Pennsylvania... Not gonna happen Watch and wait. The US voters elected him once and are on course to elect him again. Harris and her team are blowing several advantages They've failed to define her as different to Biden and his polices - in fact they have failed to clearly define her position on a lot of key policies. I read somewhere that she came into the campaign late with a clean slate and two months later the only thing written on it is '...not Trump...'. In any normal election in any normal country that might be enough, but Americans are not normal - until she shows them why she is different and better than him they will still vote for a sexist, racist, massively incompetent convicted felon. Polling normally under-represents Republicans so when the average of polls in 6 out of 7 swing states says Trump will win, that's probably what will happen *if* the election was held today... ...the good thing is it's not today and Harris and her team must be seeing similar/worse numbers. They are already changing her strategy putting her and Walz in front of many more interviewers than they have before now - even if they are the light and fluffy ones not the deep and meaningful ones, although that will be needed sooner rather than later. It can still be turned around in the last couple of weeks but if Trump makes no mistakes and Harris doesn't find a way to make significant inroads Trump will win. |
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Post by yattongas on Oct 17, 2024 8:10:07 GMT
Watch and wait. The US voters elected him once and are on course to elect him again. Harris and her team are blowing several advantages They've failed to define her as different to Biden and his polices - in fact they have failed to clearly define her position on a lot of key policies. I read somewhere that she came into the campaign late with a clean slate and two months later the only thing written on it is '...not Trump...'. In any normal election in any normal country that might be enough, but Americans are not normal - until she shows them why she is different and better than him they will still vote for a sexist, racist, massively incompetent convicted felon. Polling normally under-represents Republicans so when the average of polls in 6 out of 7 swing states says Trump will win, that's probably what will happen *if* the election was held today... ...the good thing is it's not today and Harris and her team must be seeing similar/worse numbers. They are already changing her strategy putting her and Walz in front of many more interviewers than they have before now - even if they are the light and fluffy ones not the deep and meaningful ones, although that will be needed sooner rather than later. It can still be turned around in the last couple of weeks but if Trump makes no mistakes and Harris doesn't find a way to make significant inroads Trump will win. I was talking about a big Trump win , not that he can’t win. |
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Post by supergas on Oct 17, 2024 10:28:15 GMT
Watch and wait. The US voters elected him once and are on course to elect him again. Harris and her team are blowing several advantages They've failed to define her as different to Biden and his polices - in fact they have failed to clearly define her position on a lot of key policies. I read somewhere that she came into the campaign late with a clean slate and two months later the only thing written on it is '...not Trump...'. In any normal election in any normal country that might be enough, but Americans are not normal - until she shows them why she is different and better than him they will still vote for a sexist, racist, massively incompetent convicted felon. Polling normally under-represents Republicans so when the average of polls in 6 out of 7 swing states says Trump will win, that's probably what will happen *if* the election was held today... ...the good thing is it's not today and Harris and her team must be seeing similar/worse numbers. They are already changing her strategy putting her and Walz in front of many more interviewers than they have before now - even if they are the light and fluffy ones not the deep and meaningful ones, although that will be needed sooner rather than later. It can still be turned around in the last couple of weeks but if Trump makes no mistakes and Harris doesn't find a way to make significant inroads Trump will win. I was talking about a big Trump win , not that he can’t win. If he wins the seven swing states by even 0.01% each, he could win the Electoral College by 312 to 226. That would be the largest margin for a Republican win since 1988 |
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Post by yattongas on Oct 17, 2024 10:35:54 GMT
I was talking about a big Trump win , not that he can’t win. If he wins the seven swing states by even 0.01% each, he could win the Electoral College by 312 to 226. That would be the largest margin for a Republican win since 1988 Cool , but he won’t . |
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Post by supergas on Oct 17, 2024 11:08:22 GMT
If he wins the seven swing states by even 0.01% each, he could win the Electoral College by 312 to 226. That would be the largest margin for a Republican win since 1988 Cool , but he won’t . I cashed out my 7/1 bet on her for good reasons. Unless she changes the narrative in the swing states or Trump implodes, he has all the momentum going into the key final weeks. |
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Post by yattongas on Oct 17, 2024 14:26:08 GMT
I cashed out my 7/1 bet on her for good reasons. Unless she changes the narrative in the swing states or Trump implodes, he has all the momentum going into the key final weeks. Think the female vote is underestimated and I still think Harris will win but time will tell. Congratulations on your winning bet , but I’m more interested in who you want to win ? You’re obvs a lot more right leaning than left but not a complete loon like some ( mentioning no names 🤐) . Is Trump too far right for you or would you prefer him to Harris/walz ticket ? |
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Post by yattongas on Oct 18, 2024 6:56:30 GMT
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Post by trevorgas on Oct 18, 2024 7:34:36 GMT
I have a distinctly horrible feeling that Trump is going to win,god help the World if he does and god help democracyif Harris wins it will be by a narrow margin ,will we see Trump accept defeat or will there be orchestrated civil unrest? |
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Post by gashead79 on Oct 18, 2024 11:25:30 GMT
I have a distinctly horrible feeling that Trump is going to win,god help the World if he does and god help democracyif Harris wins it will be by a narrow margin ,will we see Trump accept defeat or will there be orchestrated civil unrest? About 150m will vote in the US elections. So if Trump dies win, it'll be decided upon by more people than the alleged population of the UK. Quite how the world needs God's help upon the election of a US President I don't know, but I shouldn't worry about it too much. There's a bigger threat to the world from companies such as BP, Facebook, McDonalds and Pfizer. |
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stuart1974
Proper Gas
Posts: 12,538
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Post by stuart1974 on Oct 18, 2024 11:39:50 GMT
I have a distinctly horrible feeling that Trump is going to win,god help the World if he does and god help democracyif Harris wins it will be by a narrow margin ,will we see Trump accept defeat or will there be orchestrated civil unrest? About 150m will vote in the US elections. So if Trump dies win, it'll be decided upon by more people than the alleged population of the UK. Quite how the world needs God's help upon the election of a US President I don't know, but I shouldn't worry about it too much. There's a bigger threat to the world from companies such as BP, Facebook, McDonalds and Pfizer. Not by the Electoral college system. Anyway, we all know it's going to be 52/48, it always is. 😎 |
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