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Post by supergas on Jul 7, 2024 4:19:30 GMT
I had some spare time yesterday and wanted to check the stats about how well we start seasons - my instinct was that in the last ten seasons we've never had a good start and that obviously has a knock-on effect for the rest of the season - we're always chasing and never leading...
I ran the numbers over ten years - so this covers 10 years, 4 managers, 3 different tiers, 3 promotions and 1 relegation. Turns out the only consistent thing at the start of the last ten seasons is our slow start...
First of all it's now thirteen years since we won our opening league game - 2-1 vs AFC Wimbledon in Aug 2011 - the one before that was 2-0 vs Mansfield in Aug 2004....
Over the last ten seasons our first league win comes (on average) in game three. Our second in game six and our third in game nine. For some reason we seem unable under any manager and with any group of players to string wins together early in the season and I'm wondering what people think the reason for this is - because it's becoming a significant statistic that we need to change if we want to see success at the top of League One...
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Post by gasify on Jul 7, 2024 8:24:53 GMT
I had some spare time yesterday and wanted to check the stats about how well we start seasons - my instinct was that in the last ten seasons we've never had a good start and that obviously has a knock-on effect for the rest of the season - we're always chasing and never leading... I ran the numbers over ten years - so this covers 10 years, 4 managers, 3 different tiers, 3 promotions and 1 relegation. Turns out the only consistent thing at the start of the last ten seasons is our slow start... First of all it's now thirteen years since we won our opening league game - 2-1 vs AFC Wimbledon in Aug 2011 - the one before that was 2-0 vs Mansfield in Aug 2004.... Over the last ten seasons our first league win comes (on average) in game three. Our second in game six and our third in game nine. For some reason we seem unable under any manager and with any group of players to string wins together early in the season and I'm wondering what people think the reason for this is - because it's becoming a significant statistic that we need to change if we want to see success at the top of League One... Can you cross reference this with pre season friendlies? I've always had the feeling that when we storm through pre season friendlies and batter the opposition, our opening league results are the worst. When we have had a challenging pre season, then our results are slightly better. |
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Post by Topper Gas on Jul 7, 2024 8:42:45 GMT
Starting to feel we get stitched up by the EFL fixtures computer every season. This season's start seems very similar to last season's and also BG's start to the season. Once we get off to a bad start confidence then goes and takes some time to recover, or we never recover it.
Every season it seems a tough first home game, two unwinnable looking away games and an away cup tie we have no chance of winning.
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Post by Topper Gas on Jul 7, 2024 8:45:00 GMT
I had some spare time yesterday and wanted to check the stats about how well we start seasons - my instinct was that in the last ten seasons we've never had a good start and that obviously has a knock-on effect for the rest of the season - we're always chasing and never leading... I ran the numbers over ten years - so this covers 10 years, 4 managers, 3 different tiers, 3 promotions and 1 relegation. Turns out the only consistent thing at the start of the last ten seasons is our slow start... First of all it's now thirteen years since we won our opening league game - 2-1 vs AFC Wimbledon in Aug 2011 - the one before that was 2-0 vs Mansfield in Aug 2004.... Over the last ten seasons our first league win comes (on average) in game three. Our second in game six and our third in game nine. For some reason we seem unable under any manager and with any group of players to string wins together early in the season and I'm wondering what people think the reason for this is - because it's becoming a significant statistic that we need to change if we want to see success at the top of League One... Can you cross reference this with pre season friendlies? I've always had the feeling that when we storm through pre season friendlies and batter the opposition, our opening league results are the worst. When we have had a challenging pre season, then our results are slightly better. Our pre season has followed a similar pattern in recent years, usually playing one or two Championship sides? |
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Post by rememberhalifax on Jul 7, 2024 8:55:40 GMT
Interesting and yet I can't honestly say or explain any reason why it should be so. I don't know how true this is but one factor could be that we never seem to be ready for the new season in regard to ins and outs and always seem to be chasing new players before season starts, would be good to have a close season /recruiting period that's done and dusted a couple weeks before kick off so we are ready and the manager knows his best starting 11, on the other hand you don't want to start 'too' well as teams that blast off from the blocks rarely sustain it aka Cambridge last season. think a good start for 10 games would be w5 d2 L 3.
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Post by madgas on Jul 7, 2024 9:05:07 GMT
We've done important transfer business too late
23/24. Signed our top goalscorer in September.
22/23 Coburn signed in September.
21/22 complete rebuild
20/21 complete rebuild
19/20 started well, bulk of business was done before season started and importantly we had the number 9. In place, from the January before.
Slow starts have been because we haven't had a front line in early enough.
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Post by mftc on Jul 7, 2024 9:15:09 GMT
The Ballon Fiesta!
Isnt the stats something like 4 home starts in the last 14?
From memory away games at Ipswich, Portsmouth and Peterborough are always going to be difficult.
Seem to remember Ollie Clark getting a red card in the first half when we did play at home and it got rescinded as it was such a shocker.
Hopefully we can get a win the first day this season. Just makes a change to be home.
Hopefully we get a large fairweather support on a nice sunny day. Usually by the first home game of the season we are already in bottom 4 and are out of the league cup!
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Post by singupgas on Jul 7, 2024 9:28:04 GMT
I think we always give opposing side far too much respect, when there are not many outstanding sides in this league, whether it's been Portsmouth, Bolton, Huddersfield... On our day we have gotten results again then all.
I really want to see a hungry side wanting the ball, on the front foot and not afraid.
I think as supporters we NEED to do more to make the opposition to feel uncomfortable. Far too often if not all the time the opposition. Get hold of the ball it either goes quiet, or we get on our own sides back...why is there no loud choruses of Come on you blue or Rovers, Rovers or even booing the opposition when they are on the ball.
We have a culture of being a bit nice and a push over imo.
A tone needs to be set early.
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Post by gasify on Jul 7, 2024 9:31:42 GMT
Can you cross reference this with pre season friendlies? I've always had the feeling that when we storm through pre season friendlies and batter the opposition, our opening league results are the worst. When we have had a challenging pre season, then our results are slightly better. I seem to remember we end up playing the Championships youth team, we beat them and we are world beaters, guaranteed to win the title. Then the season starts and it's a big bump down to earth. |
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Post by Topper Gas on Jul 7, 2024 9:33:00 GMT
We've done important transfer business too late 23/24. Signed our top goalscorer in September. 22/23 Coburn signed in September. 21/22 complete rebuild 20/21 complete rebuild 19/20 started well, bulk of business was done before season started and importantly we had the number 9. In place, from the January before. Slow starts have been because we haven't had a front line in early enough. Is that really any different for most clubs, Wrexham don't even have a fit striker at present but will probably start better than us? |
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Post by supergas on Jul 7, 2024 9:47:21 GMT
Starting to feel we get stitched up by the EFL fixtures computer every season. This season's start seems very similar to last season's and also BG's start to the season. Once we get off to a bad start confidence then goes and takes some time to recover, or we never recover it. Every season it seems a tough first home game, two unwinnable looking away games and an away cup tie we have no chance of winning. The average finishing position of the first five teams we played last season was 10th. P5 W1 D2 L2 GD-2 2022/23 it was 14th - P5 W2 D0 L3 GD-1 2021/22 (promotion season) the average finishing position of the first five teams we played was 15th and our record was P5 W1 D1 L3 GD-5 Not sure the opposition is the problem, we're not constantly drawn to start against all the promotion candidates... |
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Post by supergas on Jul 7, 2024 10:01:45 GMT
I had some spare time yesterday and wanted to check the stats about how well we start seasons - my instinct was that in the last ten seasons we've never had a good start and that obviously has a knock-on effect for the rest of the season - we're always chasing and never leading... I ran the numbers over ten years - so this covers 10 years, 4 managers, 3 different tiers, 3 promotions and 1 relegation. Turns out the only consistent thing at the start of the last ten seasons is our slow start... First of all it's now thirteen years since we won our opening league game - 2-1 vs AFC Wimbledon in Aug 2011 - the one before that was 2-0 vs Mansfield in Aug 2004.... Over the last ten seasons our first league win comes (on average) in game three. Our second in game six and our third in game nine. For some reason we seem unable under any manager and with any group of players to string wins together early in the season and I'm wondering what people think the reason for this is - because it's becoming a significant statistic that we need to change if we want to see success at the top of League One... Can you cross reference this with pre season friendlies? I've always had the feeling that when we storm through pre season friendlies and batter the opposition, our opening league results are the worst. When we have had a challenging pre season, then our results are slightly better. It's a hard thing to measure the difficulty - you can quickly google the results but not whether Rovers or the opposition put out full strength teams and so whether or not we should have beaten lower-ranked teams or lost to higher-ranked ones... A quick look through the results of the last five seasons suggests we're pretty consistent overall in pre-season (W/D/L records were 5/0/2, 4/0/2, 1/3/1 (promotion season), 3/1/2 (relegation season) and 4/1/2). |
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Post by playtowin on Jul 7, 2024 10:22:09 GMT
If managers change ,coaches change, players change then its something else at the root of the issue.
All clubs should see a variety of outcomes across a decade or so.
How does our training and preseason compare to other clubs who have had more successful league starts.
How does our squad size and completed squad compare to other clubs.
How does our turnover of players compare.
How does contract lengths compare.
Plenty of other things im sure to compare might throw up better outcomes.
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Post by Topper Gas on Jul 7, 2024 10:26:15 GMT
Starting to feel we get stitched up by the EFL fixtures computer every season. This season's start seems very similar to last season's and also BG's start to the season. Once we get off to a bad start confidence then goes and takes some time to recover, or we never recover it. Every season it seems a tough first home game, two unwinnable looking away games and an away cup tie we have no chance of winning. The average finishing position of the first five teams we played last season was 10th. P5 W1 D2 L2 GD-2 2022/23 it was 14th - P5 W2 D0 L3 GD-1 2021/22 (promotion season) the average finishing position of the first five teams we played was 15th and our record was P5 W1 D1 L3 GD-5 Not sure the opposition is the problem, we're not constantly drawn to start against all the promotion candidates... So the sats proved my thoughts, most of the teams we play in the first half a dozen or so fixtures end the season above us in the table, given we seem to play more games away from home plus a cup tie we usually lose, that's clearly not helping us got off to a good start. |
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Post by gingerandwhitegas on Jul 7, 2024 10:41:38 GMT
Starting to feel we get stitched up by the EFL fixtures computer every season. This season's start seems very similar to last season's and also BG's start to the season. Once we get off to a bad start confidence then goes and takes some time to recover, or we never recover it. Every season it seems a tough first home game, two unwinnable looking away games and an away cup tie we have no chance of winning. We could do a lot worse than Northampton this season , a good fixture to start imo.
If we are quaking in our boots about the cobblers ( no pun intented ) , we may as well throw the towel in.
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Post by supergas on Jul 7, 2024 11:13:35 GMT
The average finishing position of the first five teams we played last season was 10th. P5 W1 D2 L2 GD-2 2022/23 it was 14th - P5 W2 D0 L3 GD-1 2021/22 (promotion season) the average finishing position of the first five teams we played was 15th and our record was P5 W1 D1 L3 GD-5 Not sure the opposition is the problem, we're not constantly drawn to start against all the promotion candidates... So the sats proved my thoughts, most of the teams we play in the first half a dozen or so fixtures end the season above us in the table, given we seem to play more games away from home plus a cup tie we usually lose, that's clearly not helping us got off to a good start. Average. So across those three seasons we finished above 8 of the 15 teams we played in those first five games each season. We finished higher than more than half of them... |
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Post by stevek192 on Jul 7, 2024 11:15:16 GMT
IMO the main reason for a poor start has always been down to Key signings not being made early and some signings not even signed by the first game. A lot of this is down to the FA and the transfer deadlines. Surely it would be sensible to make the deadline 1 week before the season starts so as all players are sorted before the season starts or even better to do away with deadlines completely and just having a closing date in say February.
This said we do seem particularly poor at getting signings in. Even this season we have made seven signings but still looking for key positions-experienced keeper would stand out as being somebody to get in early especially as we appear to have finalised all the defensive positions. We still appear to be two strikers light and at least one winger and attacking midfielder.
The quicker these are signed then the more chance we can have a good start. Less loanees and more permanent signings are another fault i think we make.
The remaining signings will be key to how we start.
In some ways because of our failure to win the first I usually think it is best to get one of the really tough away games out of the way.
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Post by Topper Gas on Jul 7, 2024 11:42:59 GMT
Apart from Rotherham I doubt many other L1 teams are in a better position this summer?
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Post by badengas on Jul 7, 2024 11:47:41 GMT
It's because the new kit turns up late, and our players don't know who to pass to.
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Post by madgas on Jul 7, 2024 12:00:42 GMT
Oddly, this season I'd fancy us to start fast if Martin wasn't banned...
Would like us to get another Striker in before our final pre season game.
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