Amid all the euphoria over yesterday's statements by Wael and the club, it's time to take stock over where we are as a football club.
Our club today, in reality, is in the same place as it was yesterday. If there is one item of forward movement, it is that the training ground is under way at last. My only question regarding the Colony, was ' how will this all be paid for?'
Some on here will understand that the capitalisation of the debt (approx £18m) is largely a paper exercise. So ask yourself, why is this being done now. There is nowt wrong in it, but it's the rationale behind it that we need to come to terms with.
Outwardly, clearing the debt makes us far more attractive to investors. Again nothing wrong with that. Some on here think Wael has just splashed out £18m. He hasn't.
Wael has always said he was he was committed to the club, which is why when his family recently considered selling to the people who wish to build the stadium at the fruit market, he stood firmly and said he wanted to retain the club. I don't know if Wael has inherited vast wealth on the sad loss of his father, but it's easy to misconstrue the two.
So my take on all this is follows:-
Going back to paragraph 2, again I ask, how are we paying for the Colony redevelopment? I believe the total initial outlay is approx £2m.
Now that 'the debt' has been cleared, remember that old chstnut THE CHARGE ON THE MEM? Now that there is no debt, presumably the charge has been satisfied, and can now be removed.
So what are the consequences of that? Well, it makes it far easier for raising capital against the value of the Mem for a start. You see, it's one thing to want to run a football club, but it's another to be mad enough to want to spend millions doing it. If Wael doesn't have the money that many on here seem to think he has, this is one way of getting enough funding to keep us going for a while. Longer term? Well that depends how long the money lasts.
I remember our previous owner putting us in the proverbial when he borrowed money from MSP to fund the club. But come the day of reckoning, he couldn't pay it back and had to sell the club. I hope this isn't about to happen again.
As i sày, I hope that Wael will be very careful with whatever happens next, because I doubt we will find a white knight to rescue us.
As for the new stadium? The only question is (once again) who will pay for it? Well the developer who wants to build the stadium at the Fruit Market has never wanted to own the club, because he is a property man. Is he prepared to build the stadium? As far as I know the answer is yes. But the Mem is a precondition of that. He wants to redevelop it for housing. So to get us out he would build the new stadium, and lease it to us.
But, a friend who works at the Fruit Market, told me recently that according to an email sent to the management there, it's BRISTOL ROVERS who have bought the site, but it will take 5 to 10 years to resettle the businesses there and build the stadium. It could easily be the same guy who has bought it, and assuming he has done a deal with Wael, will build it and then redevelop the Mem.
Will he wait up to 10 years to get his money back? I suppose he could move us elsewhere in the meantime to speed up his returns. I hope not.
So in summation, training ground, brilliant but where is the money coming from?
Clearing the charge on the Mem allows for capital raising to enable the club to continue, though like everyone else I hope this is not the case.
New stadium, yes it's finally happening, but what sort of deal will the club get to use it ? The annual rental at any reasonable level (please no more than about £1m per year) is most likely sustainable as long as we get to keep all the income the stadium generates. A big if.
As they say, follow the money, and importantly, follow what happens at Companies house with regard to removal of one charge, and a possible insertion of another.
It all brings two old old sayings to mind, 'if it sounds to good to be true, it usually is', and 'it's the hope that kills you'. As with everyone else on here, I hope Wael has got this nailed, and that we have a future to look forward to. I just hope he doesn't have to go borrowing money from dodgy investors that may put our whole future at risk.