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Post by Rod1883 on Feb 9, 2020 8:49:08 GMT
Since BG took over we have played 9 league games - Won 0, Drawn 3, Lost 6 = 3 points.
Over 9 games our relegation rivals' form has been: Wimbledon W2, D2, L5 = 8 points Tranmere W 0, D 2, L 7 = 2 points Southend W 2, D 4, L 3 = 10 points (unbeaten at home in that sequence) Bolton W 1, D 3, L 5 = 6 points
If the above form is replicated over the rest of the season with us, Wombles, Tranmere and Southend having 15 to play, and Bolton 17 games:
We will get 5 more points Wimbledon - 13 or 14 more Tranmere - 3 or 4 more Southend - 16 or 17 more Bolton - 11 or 12 more
Therefore end points Us 43 points Wimbledon 42 points Tranmere 26 points Southend 33 points Bolton 23 points
So, yes we are probably safe unless one of Southend or Tranmere have a near miraculous upturn in form. We can be sure of staying up, imho, if we win at Tranmere on Tuesday, and at least draw at Southend in March
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2020 9:08:02 GMT
Since BG took over we have played 9 league games - Won 0, Drawn 3, Lost 6 = 3 points. Over 9 games our relegation rivals' form has been: Wimbledon W2, D2, L5 = 8 points Tranmere W 0, D 2, L 7 = 2 points Southend W 2, D 4, L 3 = 10 points (unbeaten at home in that sequence) Bolton W 1, D 3, L 5 = 6 points If the above form is replicated over the rest of the season with us, Wombles, Tranmere and Southend having 15 to play, and Bolton 17 games: We will get 5 more points Wimbledon - 13 or 14 more Tranmere - 3 or 4 more Southend - 16 or 17 more Bolton - 11 or 12 more Therefore end points Us 43 points Wimbledon 42 points Tranmere 26 points Southend 33 points Bolton 23 points So, yes we are probably safe unless one of Southend or Tranmere have a near miraculous upturn in form. We can be sure of staying up, imho, if we win at Tranmere on Tuesday, and at least draw at Southend in March We aren't going down. However the fact it's even a possibility having demonstrated play off form over a calendar year just shows how poor it's been under BG. Still, it's a long term strategy and it's a just matter of time before we clock up the wins playing sexy football.
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Post by Hugo the Elder on Feb 9, 2020 9:09:37 GMT
Losing becomes a habit and the players will inevitably associate losing with Ben Garner.
The longer we accept it, the more normalized it becomes.
Very dangerous in any team, but in a team stacked with youngsters it is much worse.
Its not about the damage we are doing this season, it's more about the damage we are potentially already doing to the next one.
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Post by hollyhillgas on Feb 9, 2020 9:20:16 GMT
Tuesday is the biggest game since Dagenham & Redbridge. It's the worst pitch I've seen. The fittest team will win.
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Post by WeAreTheGas on Feb 9, 2020 9:21:35 GMT
No.
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Post by Rod1883 on Feb 9, 2020 9:23:23 GMT
Losing becomes a habit and the players will inevitably associate losing with Ben Garner. The longer we accept it, the more normalized it becomes. Very dangerous in any team, but in a team stacked with youngsters it is much worse. Its not about the damage we are doing this season, it's more about the damage we are potentially already doing to the next one. Agreed losing becomes a habit, and this often does carry over to a new season. The best we can hope for is an upturn in form as the players get more used to the BG style and the new players start to deliver too, and a safe mid table finish. Over the Summer recruitment of more players that can play the way BG wants is vital otherwise around Christmas we will be looking for another GC type boss to get us out of the mire
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Post by chilly1883 on Feb 9, 2020 10:25:38 GMT
We won’t go down, I genuinely believe we will get something either against Tranmere, or Blackpool at home. The performance was better yesterday, on another day, could of scored five goals!
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Post by wysemangas on Feb 9, 2020 10:38:10 GMT
As long as we don’t lose against Tranmere and Southend and get a couple of wins, we should be ok
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Post by gasandelectricity on Feb 9, 2020 10:41:10 GMT
You can’t model it like that. Performance in football is a complicated beast - you play different teams each week and if performance is poor players are released (who may be bad influences), managers can be changed which have an impact on the teams performance in either direction.
This means that current run rates wont necessarily go on. Teams like Tranmere May have an easier run in and pick up more points, they may have a change in manager and go on a run.
So it’s unlikely but it’s not an impossibility.
More importantly - our run of form under Ben Garner has been relegation form. That is something you cannot argue against. If this keeps going it runs into next season and then we have a genuine relegation battle on our hands.
I’m not happy about it but posters are right we had a free pass at a risky appointment this season but that ends in the summer. It’s not very risky to put an end to this experiment and give a new manager 10 games to learn about this side and it’s players and have a crack and starting mostly fresh in the summer. I’d say BG has not earned this chance based on his first 12/13 games whatever it is now.
We’ve already watered one fantastic opportunity up the wall - do we want to write off next season as well on this experiment? Or do we want to get someone in who is more likely to have an impact and give them the best chance to succeed?
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Post by warehamgas on Feb 9, 2020 11:06:45 GMT
Since BG took over we have played 9 league games - Won 0, Drawn 3, Lost 6 = 3 points. Over 9 games our relegation rivals' form has been: Wimbledon W2, D2, L5 = 8 points Tranmere W 0, D 2, L 7 = 2 points Southend W 2, D 4, L 3 = 10 points (unbeaten at home in that sequence) Bolton W 1, D 3, L 5 = 6 points If the above form is replicated over the rest of the season with us, Wombles, Tranmere and Southend having 15 to play, and Bolton 17 games: We will get 5 more points Wimbledon - 13 or 14 more Tranmere - 3 or 4 more Southend - 16 or 17 more Bolton - 11 or 12 more Therefore end points Us 43 points Wimbledon 42 points Tranmere 26 points Southend 33 points Bolton 23 points So, yes we are probably safe unless one of Southend or Tranmere have a near miraculous upturn in form. We can be sure of staying up, imho, if we win at Tranmere on Tuesday, and at least draw at Southend in March Thanks for the numbers stuff Rod. We will be fine. I think we’ll get another 15 points and it would take a miracle from either Tranmere or Southend or Bolton or two of them to send us down and that’s very, very unlikely to happen. Avoid defeat on Tuesday and that will probably secure us above Tranmere and we’ll be able to relax a bit more. It would also help if our defenders could avoid giving away avoidable goals like yesterday. UTG!
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Post by bluegas on Feb 9, 2020 11:20:57 GMT
Probably not (in reply to the OP).
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Post by oliverhelmet on Feb 9, 2020 11:31:55 GMT
You can still get 200/1 at some online bookies.We could even have enough points already to stay up,but get a couple of quid on at that price if you think it might happen.
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Post by Gas_Quarters on Feb 9, 2020 11:48:14 GMT
I’m confident we won’t go down, simply because of how far in front we are and how poor the teams at the bottom are. The bizarre circumstances this year means there’s only 3 going down. Bolton would probably have been good enough to stay up, but the points deduction means they won’t. Southend are poor and so are Tranmere.
All that means that 40 points will probably be enough to stay up which is very rare in this league. We might be lucky in that sense but it has meant that this transition phase shouldn’t be costly.
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Post by madgas on Feb 9, 2020 11:49:14 GMT
You can’t model it like that. Performance in football is a complicated beast - you play different teams each week and if performance is poor players are released (who may be bad influences), managers can be changed which have an impact on the teams performance in either direction. This means that current run rates wont necessarily go on. Teams like Tranmere May have an easier run in and pick up more points, they may have a change in manager and go on a run. So it’s unlikely but it’s not an impossibility. More importantly - our run of form under Ben Garner has been relegation form. That is something you cannot argue against. If this keeps going it runs into next season and then we have a genuine relegation battle on our hands. I’m not happy about it but posters are right we had a free pass at a risky appointment this season but that ends in the summer. It’s not very risky to put an end to this experiment and give a new manager 10 games to learn about this side and it’s players and have a crack and starting mostly fresh in the summer. I’d say BG has not earned this chance based on his first 12/13 games whatever it is now. We’ve already watered one fantastic opportunity up the wall - do we want to write off next season as well on this experiment? Or do we want to get someone in who is more likely to have an impact and give them the best chance to succeed? You dont want to use numbers to prove why we wont go down- yet are happy to use them to suggest why would sack BG? I think it's fair to say BG was the wrong person to build on the work of GC. But many people are not sure how far that work could have taken us.
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Post by stevek192 on Feb 9, 2020 12:16:32 GMT
The problem as I see it is down to the owners and my reason is that the team were not broken and though the football was not good it did NOT require a complete refit. The defending was more than adequate and the main problem was in midfield where we totally lacked pace and up front all we needed was a 20 goal a season striker to partner Clarke-Harris. THERE LIES THE PROBLEM With seven new players we still have Upson, Ollie Clarke,Ogogo and Leahy playing regularly with Clarke Harris STILL the only recognised goalscorer.
Instead of 7 loans we could easily have got by with five if one was a goalscorer,two midfielders and a goalkeeper. The other could have been either of the wingers we have on loan. The problem is that it is unlikely we would have got the goalscorer on a free transfer.
It is easy to make a team more attacking by injecting a bit of pace and a goalscorer and pushing up the pitch a bit and organising to close opponents down high up the pitch. As it is they brought in a Manager with a completely different idea on how football is played and with the aim of getting in as many players as possible and as cheaply as possible. So we are where we are and we just have to hope that we can stay up this season which surely should be possible and try and have a good finish which generally signals how you are going to do the following season. We have to hope that there is a possibility of signing the loans if they are successful or we will be in another completely rebuilding state at the seasons end.
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Post by gasandelectricity on Feb 9, 2020 12:17:20 GMT
You can’t model it like that. Performance in football is a complicated beast - you play different teams each week and if performance is poor players are released (who may be bad influences), managers can be changed which have an impact on the teams performance in either direction. This means that current run rates wont necessarily go on. Teams like Tranmere May have an easier run in and pick up more points, they may have a change in manager and go on a run. So it’s unlikely but it’s not an impossibility. More importantly - our run of form under Ben Garner has been relegation form. That is something you cannot argue against. If this keeps going it runs into next season and then we have a genuine relegation battle on our hands. I’m not happy about it but posters are right we had a free pass at a risky appointment this season but that ends in the summer. It’s not very risky to put an end to this experiment and give a new manager 10 games to learn about this side and it’s players and have a crack and starting mostly fresh in the summer. I’d say BG has not earned this chance based on his first 12/13 games whatever it is now. We’ve already watered one fantastic opportunity up the wall - do we want to write off next season as well on this experiment? Or do we want to get someone in who is more likely to have an impact and give them the best chance to succeed? You dont want to use numbers to prove why we wont go down- yet are happy to use them to suggest why would sack BG? I think it's fair to say BG was the wrong person to build on the work of GC. But many people are not sure how far that work could have taken us. I'm not saying don't use numbers I'm saying simply extrapolating the run rate of all those teams including us isn't a reliable predictor of if we're safe or not. As predictions are exactly that. BGs performance to date is cold hard fact. Two very different types of 'maths'. Just like a weather forecast could predict certain conditions and be wrong for tomorrow, with the Met Office and weather.com giving you different forecasts, you'd be hard pressed to argue over the fact it was 18*c somewhere or other yesterday.
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Post by socrates on Feb 9, 2020 12:22:35 GMT
Nobody knows how far Coughlan could have taken us and nobody knows how far Garner is going to take us either. I’m not worried about getting relegated this season I’m confident we’ll pick up the 6 points of whatever it is we need but I’m more worried about the short term future like next season. If we only pick up another 6 points or so this season and just stay up I don’t think we should keep Garner in to next season. Hopefully before the season ends we’ll see us picking up as many wins as defeats and see something clicking that we can look forward to next season over the summer and be positive about.
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Post by GasAttacK on Feb 9, 2020 12:52:41 GMT
Socrates is right, nobody knows how the season would have progressed had Coughlan stayed. I've seen every game this season (2 on iFollow) and was never convinced we could maintain the results needed to stay in the top 6.
I didn't have a problem with GC's direct style but in most games we had less possession and less shots on goal / chances created than the opposition. Basically I felt we were a little lucky to be 4th.
We won't go down. I can't see any of the bottom 3 getting 39 points. What I want to see from the remainder of the season is continued improvement and proof that this new style can produce wins.
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Post by socrates on Feb 9, 2020 12:59:35 GMT
Socrates is right, nobody knows how the season would have progressed had Coughlan stayed. I've seen every game this season (2 on iFollow) and was never convinced we could maintain the results needed to stay in the top 6. I didn't have a problem with GC's direct style but in most games we had less possession and less shots on goal / chances created than the opposition. Basically I felt we were a little lucky to be 4th. We won't go down. I can't see any of the bottom 3 getting 39 points. What I want to see from the remainder of the season is continued improvement and proof that this new style can produce wins. Yeah and if we’re still not getting any wins with 6-7 games to play then perhaps it’ would be the right time to sack Garner and get a new man in to get his idea across for those last games. Anyway hopefully Garner will come good before then it’s been a disastrous start.
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Post by Gas-Ed on Feb 9, 2020 13:06:21 GMT
We won’t go down this season but the real worry is how BG will rectify the mess he has created before the start of next season. If things haven’t improved significantly by April I would be showing him the door. You can’t say “Well he’s changing the system and style and it will take time for the players to adapt,” etc. Are we meant to let the club sink like a stone in the hope that BG can get us playing attractive football and winning games?
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