|
Post by 2nd May 1990 on Dec 9, 2014 0:29:05 GMT
So, with a gap to our next league game it got me thinking about my expectations for the rest of the season. I don't think we quite have what it takes to rip the league apart in the way we would need to do not only to gun down Barnet but also outperform all other teams around us who have games in hand at present. Therefore I don't think we're going to win the league. We are a good Conference side though, so I thought it was reasonable to expect us to make the play-offs from here......
I looked at previous years' tables, and basically 80pts has been what it has taken to get a play-off place, so that's a decent target. We may need a couple of points less, it may be one of those freak years when you need more.
Anyway, to reach 80 points, 37 points are required from 21 games. How can we achieve this? Any of the following ways, for starters:
11 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats 10 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats 9 wins, 10 draws, 2 defeats
These results are achievable but clearly no gimme. Our current points per game is 1.72. We need 1.76 points per game for the rest of the season to get to 80 points. This is quite a sobering statistic to see that we are in 2nd, yet we may need to improve our overall form just to secure a play off place.
To have a decent shot of automatic promotion we will probably need over 90 points, which is 47 points from 21 games:
15 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats 14 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats 13 wins, 8 draws, 0 defeats
These would be exceptional results yet would still far from guarantee us top spot. I can't see it, to be honest.
So, hopefully we can do what's required to make the play offs and then us fans can will them over the line, but one thing's for sure. This is one tough league to get out of though.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2014 0:40:07 GMT
My expectation for this year was to be in the top ten so a play-off space would please me.
However I don't buy into the notion that Barnet's lead is insurmountable, it's 9 points and we have an entire half of a season still to come. We're bound to improve on the first half of the year anyway, we have more options and we had that god awful first three games. It's still very much open.
|
|
|
Post by 2nd May 1990 on Dec 9, 2014 1:52:20 GMT
Since the conference went to 24 teams in 06/07 the lowest pts acquired to win was Burton in 08/09 with 88, but that looks like an outlier, with the range of the rest of the winners all between 95pts and 105pts.
06/07 D&R 95pts 07/08 Aldershot 101pts 08/09 Burton 88pts 09/10 Stevenage 99pts 10/11 Crawley 105pts 11/12 Fleetwood 103pts 12/13 Mansfield 95pts 13/14 Luton 101pts
Yes, this year may be an open year if Barnet have a bad run, but I think we're going to need 90pts at least. That's going to be really tough and we would need to win around two thirds of our games. With our current squad, I can't see it. We just don't score enough goals. Maybe if we go on a bit of a run now and strengthen in January with an out and out goal scorer such as Tubbs, then who knows. He popped in 37 goals in this league in Crawley's promotion season. At current rates, we'll be lucky to see one of our strikers hit double figures.
|
|
|
Post by Qatar Gas on Dec 9, 2014 4:57:43 GMT
Being second more than half way through the season means nobody should be expecting anything less than a play off place come the end of the season. Winning the play offs would be a lottery though! We have to turn these 0-0 draws agaisnt lower teams into wins if we have any chace of catching Barnet. We also have to play the five teams below us away from home which considering our away record this is going to be our biggest challenge and this is why I do not think we will catch Barnet.
|
|
|
Post by Quartermaster on Dec 9, 2014 6:11:22 GMT
If 80pts generally gets you into the play offs in this league and our pts per game figure puts us behind target for 80pts already AND we're currently second, then I think it may be an exceptional year in terms of what's needed.
Would have taken 2nd in December at the start of the season and to think we're where we are without really playing well is encouraging, however the fact that we're not consistently outstanding means I'd be happy with the play offs atm.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2014 6:26:08 GMT
Lowered.
|
|
|
Post by socrates on Dec 9, 2014 7:25:17 GMT
Being second more than half way through the season means nobody should be expecting anything less than a play off place come the end of the season. Winning the play offs would be a lottery though! We have to turn these 0-0 draws agaisnt lower teams into wins if we have any chace of catching Barnet. We also have to play the five teams below us away from home which considering our away record this is going to be our biggest challenge and this is why I do not think we will catch Barnet. Why are the play offs a lottery ? You don't buy a ticket and rely on luck you go out and try and win it. Do people call the FA cup semi final a lottery ? Or the champions league semi finals ? If we get to the play offs then we're in a cup semi final to win promotion and I reckon we've got the sort of determined side that would win it.
|
|
|
Post by Thegasaregoingup on Dec 9, 2014 7:46:40 GMT
As regards catching Barnet I can remember when the Gas were 10 points clear at the top and didn't even make the play offs. It's football.....anything can happen.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2014 8:31:43 GMT
As regards catching Barnet I can remember when the Gas were 10 points clear at the top and didn't even make the play offs. It's football.....anything can happen. Please don't remind me of that, you just made me throw up my Coco Pops! That is the moment we just never recovered from Back on point, LDV's injury was really a body blow HE was making us better, now i feel we will return to a averagely ok team with a strong defense, Catch Barnet? not a hope imo unless the Transfer window brings another LDV. So, expectations: I expect to finish 5th and have to watch some VERY frustrating football along the way.
|
|
|
Post by Topper Gas on Dec 9, 2014 8:46:07 GMT
A lot now depends on the next month or so as we have half dozen tought looking games plus the transfer window re-opens, if we can come though those still 2nd or 3rd in the table plus closing the gap on Barnet whilst adding a couple of decent attacking players we could be in a v. good position. Although struggle in those games and drop to 4th or 5th and fail to bring in anybody decent and it will become a big battle just to make the Play off's.
My expectations is that we will finish 2nd or 3rd and then make it to Wembley, where anything could happen!
|
|
|
Post by supergas on Dec 9, 2014 9:12:30 GMT
Since the conference went to 24 teams in 06/07 the lowest pts acquired to win was Burton in 08/09 with 88, but that looks like an outlier, with the range of the rest of the winners all between 95pts and 105pts. 06/07 D&R 95pts 07/08 Aldershot 101pts 08/09 Burton 88pts 09/10 Stevenage 99pts 10/11 Crawley 105pts 11/12 Fleetwood 103pts 12/13 Mansfield 95pts 13/14 Luton 101pts Yes, this year may be an open year if Barnet have a bad run, but I think we're going to need 90pts at least. That's going to be really tough and we would need to win around two thirds of our games. With our current squad, I can't see it. We just don't score enough goals. Maybe if we go on a bit of a run now and strengthen in January with an out and out goal scorer such as Tubbs, then who knows. He popped in 37 goals in this league in Crawley's promotion season. At current rates, we'll be lucky to see one of our strikers hit double figures. I think its interesting how you look back at past leagues...the way I look at it, you don't need to beat the team that finishes first (if you're the best team), you just need to beat the team that finished second... 06/07 Oxford 81 07/08 Cambridge 86 08/09 Cambridge 86 09/10 Luton 88 10/11 AFC Wimbledon 90 11/12 Wrexham 98 12/13 Kidderminster 93 13/14 Cambridge 82 Suddenly seems more achievable?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2014 9:34:08 GMT
Since the conference went to 24 teams in 06/07 the lowest pts acquired to win was Burton in 08/09 with 88, but that looks like an outlier, with the range of the rest of the winners all between 95pts and 105pts. 06/07 D&R 95pts 07/08 Aldershot 101pts 08/09 Burton 88pts 09/10 Stevenage 99pts 10/11 Crawley 105pts 11/12 Fleetwood 103pts 12/13 Mansfield 95pts 13/14 Luton 101pts Yes, this year may be an open year if Barnet have a bad run, but I think we're going to need 90pts at least. That's going to be really tough and we would need to win around two thirds of our games. With our current squad, I can't see it. We just don't score enough goals. Maybe if we go on a bit of a run now and strengthen in January with an out and out goal scorer such as Tubbs, then who knows. He popped in 37 goals in this league in Crawley's promotion season. At current rates, we'll be lucky to see one of our strikers hit double figures. I think its interesting how you look back at past leagues...the way I look at it, you don't need to beat the team that finishes first (if you're the best team), you just need to beat the team that finished second... 06/07 Oxford 81 07/08 Cambridge 86 08/09 Cambridge 86 09/10 Luton 88 10/11 AFC Wimbledon 90 11/12 Wrexham 98 12/13 Kidderminster 93 13/14 Cambridge 82 Suddenly seems more achievable? What a brilliant observation. Still, I agree with Big Jock. Ugly 5th place. No one will want to play us in the playoffs and I will be very disappointed if we don't make the final. After that, who knows.
|
|
|
Post by mjhgas on Dec 9, 2014 9:55:28 GMT
I expected us to continue our downward trend! Happy with the play off route - we don't lose too many so will be difficult to beat over two legs!!! We could easily take four times the number of fans than our opposition at Wembley - has to be some advantage in that! I'll be extremely happy when we return to League One and can start watching proper football again!!!
|
|
|
Post by Gas Go Marching In on Dec 9, 2014 10:03:56 GMT
Since the conference went to 24 teams in 06/07 the lowest pts acquired to win was Burton in 08/09 with 88, but that looks like an outlier, with the range of the rest of the winners all between 95pts and 105pts. 06/07 D&R 95pts 07/08 Aldershot 101pts 08/09 Burton 88pts 09/10 Stevenage 99pts 10/11 Crawley 105pts 11/12 Fleetwood 103pts 12/13 Mansfield 95pts 13/14 Luton 101pts Yes, this year may be an open year if Barnet have a bad run, but I think we're going to need 90pts at least. That's going to be really tough and we would need to win around two thirds of our games. With our current squad, I can't see it. We just don't score enough goals. Maybe if we go on a bit of a run now and strengthen in January with an out and out goal scorer such as Tubbs, then who knows. He popped in 37 goals in this league in Crawley's promotion season. At current rates, we'll be lucky to see one of our strikers hit double figures. I think its interesting how you look back at past leagues...the way I look at it, you don't need to beat the team that finishes first (if you're the best team), you just need to beat the team that finished second... 06/07 Oxford 81 07/08 Cambridge 86 08/09 Cambridge 86 09/10 Luton 88 10/11 AFC Wimbledon 90 11/12 Wrexham 98 12/13 Kidderminster 93 13/14 Cambridge 82 Suddenly seems more achievable? Wrexham not going up with 98 points must have been a killer! P.S I could imagine our Rich looking at it this way as well.
|
|
|
Post by Mark Ash on Dec 9, 2014 10:20:30 GMT
I think its interesting how you look back at past leagues...the way I look at it, you don't need to beat the team that finishes first (if you're the best team), you just need to beat the team that finished second... 06/07 Oxford 81 07/08 Cambridge 86 08/09 Cambridge 86 09/10 Luton 88 10/11 AFC Wimbledon 90 11/12 Wrexham 98 12/13 Kidderminster 93 13/14 Cambridge 82 Suddenly seems more achievable? Wrexham not going up with 98 points must have been a killer! P.S I could imagine our Rich looking at it this way as well. But... perhaps these 2nd place teams lost points to the top team. If we don't match the champions' total, the 2nd team may pick up those points instead. No?
|
|
|
Post by Mark Ash on Dec 9, 2014 10:24:54 GMT
A new signing in January might change things - or injuries to opponents - but as things stand, I'm these days looking at 6th to see how far ahead we are, rather than 1st to see how far behind. Barnet just look too consistent for us. I'm expecting/hoping for the playoffs.
|
|
|
Post by Mark Ash on Dec 9, 2014 10:31:49 GMT
Being second more than half way through the season means nobody should be expecting anything less than a play off place come the end of the season. Winning the play offs would be a lottery though! We have to turn these 0-0 draws agaisnt lower teams into wins if we have any chace of catching Barnet. We also have to play the five teams below us away from home which considering our away record this is going to be our biggest challenge and this is why I do not think we will catch Barnet. We're not really second though, are we? The table is in such a state, our situation is more like cricket team that's batted first. We now wait to see how the others all do with their turn, to find out where we are. Why have Eastleigh played so few games? Don't they like football much?
|
|
|
Post by RD on Dec 9, 2014 10:39:43 GMT
Being second more than half way through the season means nobody should be expecting anything less than a play off place come the end of the season. Winning the play offs would be a lottery though! We have to turn these 0-0 draws agaisnt lower teams into wins if we have any chace of catching Barnet. We also have to play the five teams below us away from home which considering our away record this is going to be our biggest challenge and this is why I do not think we will catch Barnet. We're not really second though, are we? The table is in such a state, our situation is more like cricket team that's batted first. We now wait to see how the others all do with their turn, to find out where we are. Why have Eastleigh played so few games? Don't they like football much? Think they made it to the FA Cup second round and have had a game postponed due to weather I believe, not to mention the game they had to postpone due to the fire at the teams hotel a few weeks ago (which meant they couldn't get their boots or kit etc).
|
|
|
Post by Mark Ash on Dec 9, 2014 10:46:08 GMT
We're not really second though, are we? The table is in such a state, our situation is more like cricket team that's batted first. We now wait to see how the others all do with their turn, to find out where we are. Why have Eastleigh played so few games? Don't they like football much? Think they made it to the FA Cup second round and have had a game postponed due to weather I believe, not to mention the game they had to postpone due to the fire at the teams hotel a few weeks ago (which meant they couldn't get their boots or kit etc). Oh yes, I forgot about the fire!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2014 11:05:37 GMT
It's going to get even worse once the bad weather starts kicking in/if it does.
We've got some quite high profile teams away from home after Christmas with decent facilities (Grimsby, Gateshead, Halifax) so it shouldn't affect us too much, but there will be loads of teams with a ton of games in hand in about March/April I imagine.
As long as we can get points on the board in those games mentioned above, I'd rather get the games out of the way. I remember we had a few games in hand last season, points on the board much better.
|
|