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Post by Officer Barbrady on Mar 21, 2020 16:51:54 GMT
Italy sadly is a pattern that we will reasonably follow and potentially worse. Their healthcare system is excellent, far better than ours. They have more people, more equipment. We are around 2 weeks away from peak in Londom and 4 in the UK generally and we face the following significant challenges: 1. Our starting point is far worse. ICU is already close to capacity in London. 2. We have less staff by tens of thousands and further still are not trained to use ventilators. 3. We do not have enough equipment, beds or ICU space generally. As mitigation we will benefit from two and potentially three things: 1. Our population is marginally younger 2. We implemented full national social distancing fractionally before they did within the pattern. 3. We are a few weeks behind meaning we are closer to any potential treatment or antibody test that if we are lucky may emerge soon. I'm doubtful of the former but more optimistic on the latter. In Italy they are having to make choices about who they try to save, based on any comorbidity, age and family status. Its not unreasonable that we have 200k cases in the UK incubating right now. In 2 weeks time, 66k will require healthcare, 22k will require hospitalization. Capacity will be entirely exhausted extremely quickly. There is a pattern of severity linked to viral load. This is significant. Family member 1 with low viral exposure becomes ill and self isolates but the second generation, family members 2 and 3 have higher viral load and become worse. Equally we are finding that sending people home who arent bad enough (many would be bad enough in normal circumstances) only means they are coming back far worse a few days later. This is particularly true for the younger patients. Mortality then will increase on three levels - higher levels of exposure, inadequate initial care and insufficient definitive care. Mortality rates will begin to rise and the age affected will begin to level out more with the exception of children who seem to be invincible to the pneumonia. All the while, heart attacks and strokes continue to happen but with less provision. I suspect we are likely on track to follow in Italys footsteps and I see every chance of us managing far worse in time. Honestly Stuart, its bleak. Really f**king bleak. I wish I could find some positive angle but there isnt one. We are going to lose tens of thousands of lives and maybe more. Guys, please. Please. Dont be a tough guy, dont gamble. Do everything you can to not get it. If you know a nurse, doctor or paramedic, look after them. Make sure they have what they need to sleep and work and encourage everyone you know to stay at home as much as they can. Well, that`s not so bad. I was starting to get worried. Forgive me my perspective from the sharp edge. If you follow advice you should be able to live comfortably without getting it and do ok even if you do. But you must follow advice and if you can afford to, go further still to protect yourself. |
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Post by althepirate on Mar 21, 2020 17:25:11 GMT
Thanks for your help Officer. Your last but one post did stay with me a bit so thanks for the last one.
It's really good to have someone on here with the knowledge even if sometimes we would rather not hear it. We must face reality and stay safe.
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Mar 21, 2020 17:33:39 GMT
Italy sadly is a pattern that we will reasonably follow and potentially worse. Their healthcare system is excellent, far better than ours. They have more people, more equipment. We are around 2 weeks away from peak in Londom and 4 in the UK generally and we face the following significant challenges: 1. Our starting point is far worse. ICU is already close to capacity in London. 2. We have less staff by tens of thousands and further still are not trained to use ventilators. 3. We do not have enough equipment, beds or ICU space generally. As mitigation we will benefit from two and potentially three things: 1. Our population is marginally younger 2. We implemented full national social distancing fractionally before they did within the pattern. 3. We are a few weeks behind meaning we are closer to any potential treatment or antibody test that if we are lucky may emerge soon. I'm doubtful of the former but more optimistic on the latter. In Italy they are having to make choices about who they try to save, based on any comorbidity, age and family status. Its not unreasonable that we have 200k cases in the UK incubating right now. In 2 weeks time, 66k will require healthcare, 22k will require hospitalization. Capacity will be entirely exhausted extremely quickly. There is a pattern of severity linked to viral load. This is significant. Family member 1 with low viral exposure becomes ill and self isolates but the second generation, family members 2 and 3 have higher viral load and become worse. Equally we are finding that sending people home who arent bad enough (many would be bad enough in normal circumstances) only means they are coming back far worse a few days later. This is particularly true for the younger patients. Mortality then will increase on three levels - higher levels of exposure, inadequate initial care and insufficient definitive care. Mortality rates will begin to rise and the age affected will begin to level out more with the exception of children who seem to be invincible to the pneumonia. All the while, heart attacks and strokes continue to happen but with less provision. I suspect we are likely on track to follow in Italys footsteps and I see every chance of us managing far worse in time. Honestly Stuart, its bleak. Really f**king bleak. I wish I could find some positive angle but there isnt one. We are going to lose tens of thousands of lives and maybe more. Guys, please. Please. Dont be a tough guy, dont gamble. Do everything you can to not get it. If you know a nurse, doctor or paramedic, look after them. Make sure they have what they need to sleep and work and encourage everyone you know to stay at home as much as they can. By your post, I'm guessing you know somebody very well in the profession. The only reason I say that is that I do too, and their comments and opinions match yours. WE MUST SOCIAL Distance the best we can. Our actions can either cost or save lives. You decide! |
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Post by Officer Barbrady on Mar 21, 2020 17:44:59 GMT
Italy sadly is a pattern that we will reasonably follow and potentially worse. Their healthcare system is excellent, far better than ours. They have more people, more equipment. We are around 2 weeks away from peak in Londom and 4 in the UK generally and we face the following significant challenges: 1. Our starting point is far worse. ICU is already close to capacity in London. 2. We have less staff by tens of thousands and further still are not trained to use ventilators. 3. We do not have enough equipment, beds or ICU space generally. As mitigation we will benefit from two and potentially three things: 1. Our population is marginally younger 2. We implemented full national social distancing fractionally before they did within the pattern. 3. We are a few weeks behind meaning we are closer to any potential treatment or antibody test that if we are lucky may emerge soon. I'm doubtful of the former but more optimistic on the latter. In Italy they are having to make choices about who they try to save, based on any comorbidity, age and family status. Its not unreasonable that we have 200k cases in the UK incubating right now. In 2 weeks time, 66k will require healthcare, 22k will require hospitalization. Capacity will be entirely exhausted extremely quickly. There is a pattern of severity linked to viral load. This is significant. Family member 1 with low viral exposure becomes ill and self isolates but the second generation, family members 2 and 3 have higher viral load and become worse. Equally we are finding that sending people home who arent bad enough (many would be bad enough in normal circumstances) only means they are coming back far worse a few days later. This is particularly true for the younger patients. Mortality then will increase on three levels - higher levels of exposure, inadequate initial care and insufficient definitive care. Mortality rates will begin to rise and the age affected will begin to level out more with the exception of children who seem to be invincible to the pneumonia. All the while, heart attacks and strokes continue to happen but with less provision. I suspect we are likely on track to follow in Italys footsteps and I see every chance of us managing far worse in time. Honestly Stuart, its bleak. Really f**king bleak. I wish I could find some positive angle but there isnt one. We are going to lose tens of thousands of lives and maybe more. Guys, please. Please. Dont be a tough guy, dont gamble. Do everything you can to not get it. If you know a nurse, doctor or paramedic, look after them. Make sure they have what they need to sleep and work and encourage everyone you know to stay at home as much as they can. By your post, I'm guessing you know somebody very well in the profession. The only reason I say that is that I do too, and their comments and opinions match yours. WE MUST SOCIAL Distance the best we can. Our actions can either cost or save lives. You decide! I am 14 years in the profession. Heres the issue. ![]()  |
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Post by Marshy on Mar 21, 2020 18:06:14 GMT
By your post, I'm guessing you know somebody very well in the profession. The only reason I say that is that I do too, and their comments and opinions match yours. WE MUST SOCIAL Distance the best we can. Our actions can either cost or save lives. You decide! I am 14 years in the profession. Heres the issue. ![]() View AttachmentIt’s a bit blurred, it looks to me as we are on par with Italy as in compassion where they were time wise is that correct? And even more worrying is the fact that they have a much better and well equipped health service than us. I was watching it on the news today truly shocking in Italy and we could well be worse! Scary stuff. |
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Post by Officer Barbrady on Mar 21, 2020 18:07:46 GMT
It’s a bit blurred, it looks to me as we are on par with Italy as in compassion where they were time wise is that correct? And even more worrying is the fact that they have a much better and well equipped health service than us. you should be able to click on it to open. Theres a couple dates missing but we are now exactly where they were 14 days ago. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Mar 21, 2020 18:13:23 GMT
Not good, Sky reporting a further 793 people have died in Italy, taking the death toll there to 4,825
53 more patients with COVID-19 have died in England and two further patients have died in Wales
The death toll in the UK now stands at 233
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Post by Marshy on Mar 21, 2020 18:13:50 GMT
It’s a bit blurred, it looks to me as we are on par with Italy as in compassion where they were time wise is that correct? And even more worrying is the fact that they have a much better and well equipped health service than us. you should be able to click on it to open. Theres a couple dates missing but we are now exactly where they were 14 days ago. Ah I see, f**k me were in for a rough ride! The whole Cheltenham festival thing f**ked me off, I can only imagine how many deaths this will put on the toll. Why the f**k didn’t they cancel it? I know that’s just one example of many but it seemed senseless going ahead with it. |
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Post by Marshy on Mar 21, 2020 18:16:25 GMT
Not good, Sky reporting a further 793 people have died in Italy, taking the death toll there to 4,825 53 more patients with COVID-19 have died in England and two further patients have died in Wales The death toll in the UK now stands at 233 sh**, I know it won’t help but I’m going to have a couple of beers Dam depressing! |
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Post by stuart1974 on Mar 21, 2020 18:17:54 GMT
Will this make a difference? Sky also reporting: Nearly 20,000 fully qualified staff will join the NHS response to coronavirus after a deal with the private sector which will include 8,000 more hospital beds being made available. National Health Service will also gain access to nearly 1,200 more ventilators and other critical care facilities that have come under intense pressure as the coronavirus crisisintensifies. The deal will give the NHS access to 10,000 nurses, over 700 doctors and more than 8,000 other clinical staff. news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-8-000-more-hospital-beds-and-20-000-extra-staff-join-covid-19-fight-11961532 |
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Post by Marshy on Mar 21, 2020 18:21:27 GMT
Will this make a difference? Sky also reporting: Nearly 20,000 fully qualified staff will join the NHS response to coronavirus after a deal with the private sector which will include 8,000 more hospital beds being made available. National Health Service will also gain access to nearly 1,200 more ventilators and other critical care facilities that have come under intense pressure as the coronavirus crisisintensifies. The deal will give the NHS access to 10,000 nurses, over 700 doctors and more than 8,000 other clinical staff. Well, it’s going to help. But the scale now is becoming frightening! |
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Post by Officer Barbrady on Mar 21, 2020 18:25:45 GMT
you should be able to click on it to open. Theres a couple dates missing but we are now exactly where they were 14 days ago. Ah I see, f**k me were in for a rough ride! The whole Cheltenham festival thing f**ked me off, I can only imagine how many deaths this will put on the toll. Why the f**k didn’t they cancel it? I know that’s just one example of many but it seemed senseless going ahead with it. I was screaming about their ridiculous obsession with herd immunity at the time. Bad science and arrogance is the reason. We also had a sharp increase in Wales. 5 days before there was a stereophonics concert in Cardiff. They dont shut the schools on the assumption that kids are not badly affected. Where do they think those kids go at the end of the day? They just dont get it or at least, they didnt get it. I think they've cottoned on now but I'm not sure the general public has. Anyway what's done is done now and we are where we are. Stay safe. |
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Post by Officer Barbrady on Mar 21, 2020 18:27:00 GMT
Will this make a difference? Sky also reporting: Nearly 20,000 fully qualified staff will join the NHS response to coronavirus after a deal with the private sector which will include 8,000 more hospital beds being made available. National Health Service will also gain access to nearly 1,200 more ventilators and other critical care facilities that have come under intense pressure as the coronavirus crisisintensifies. The deal will give the NHS access to 10,000 nurses, over 700 doctors and more than 8,000 other clinical staff. news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-8-000-more-hospital-beds-and-20-000-extra-staff-join-covid-19-fight-11961532 Yes it will help but to be honest it's a water in the ocean. It takes our national nurse shortage back to 55000. Italy have a shortage of 3500. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Mar 21, 2020 18:33:33 GMT
Will this make a difference? Sky also reporting: Nearly 20,000 fully qualified staff will join the NHS response to coronavirus after a deal with the private sector which will include 8,000 more hospital beds being made available. National Health Service will also gain access to nearly 1,200 more ventilators and other critical care facilities that have come under intense pressure as the coronavirus crisisintensifies. The deal will give the NHS access to 10,000 nurses, over 700 doctors and more than 8,000 other clinical staff. news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-8-000-more-hospital-beds-and-20-000-extra-staff-join-covid-19-fight-11961532 Yes it will help but to be honest it's a water in the ocean. It takes our national nurse shortage back to 55000. Italy have a shortage of 3500. They are apparently trying to coax back 65,000 retired doctors and nurses. Do you reckon there will be much uptake? |
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Post by Officer Barbrady on Mar 21, 2020 18:37:09 GMT
Yes it will help but to be honest it's a water in the ocean. It takes our national nurse shortage back to 55000. Italy have a shortage of 3500. They are apparently trying to coax back 65,000 retired doctors and nurses. Do you reckon there will be much uptake? The cynical bastard that I am suggests not many retired doctors and nurses looking at this would consider themselves, now firmly in the high risk age group, particularly attracted the the idea of entering hot zones. But, on the whole, they are a good sort and I should think many of them will want to help however they can  |
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Post by trevorgas on Mar 21, 2020 20:11:12 GMT
They are apparently trying to coax back 65,000 retired doctors and nurses. Do you reckon there will be much uptake? The cynical bastard that I am suggests not many retired doctors and nurses looking at this would consider themselves, now firmly in the high risk age group, particularly attracted the the idea of entering hot zones. But, on the whole, they are a good sort and I should think many of them will want to help however they can It's also worrying that latest reports from Italy show it is killing much younger people. |
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Post by inee on Mar 21, 2020 20:26:49 GMT
Well, that`s not so bad. I was starting to get worried. Forgive me my perspective from the sharp edge. If you follow advice you should be able to live comfortably without getting it and do ok even if you do. But you must follow advice and if you can afford to, go further still to protect yourself. Nah tis not forgiveness you need but major thanks for your honesty and openness in these times. Was chatting to mother earlier she said her neighbours have offered to help out with shopping etc, but and here's the big but she has to go out tomorrow to go to the bank to get cash, to be fair to her she's been isolating her and her hubby for the past few weeks but needs to go out, the question is how many at risk people are having to do the same . This bit kinda goes hand in hand with another of your posts, i read somewhere that allegedly chlamydia is running rampant now people are staying home(forgive me for laughing at that gallows humour) . Which led me saying to Wendy i would love to nip down town at closing time just to see how many people are ignoring everything and behaving how the would on a weekend anyway. I also believe the reason people are so complacent down here is because infection rates in bristol are low ,i can imagine some saying only 13 confirmed cases i'll be ok not realising this is the calm before the storm. Carry on giving updates and advise as long as you can , to you and the other nhs staff offering advice in these threads all i can say is cheers |
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Post by francegas on Mar 21, 2020 23:30:59 GMT
Ah I see, f**k me were in for a rough ride! The whole Cheltenham festival thing f**ked me off, I can only imagine how many deaths this will put on the toll. Why the f**k didn’t they cancel it? I know that’s just one example of many but it seemed senseless going ahead with it. I was screaming about their ridiculous obsession with herd immunity at the time. Bad science and arrogance is the reason. We also had a sharp increase in Wales. 5 days before there was a stereophonics concert in Cardiff. They dont shut the schools on the assumption that kids are not badly affected. Where do they think those kids go at the end of the day? They just dont get it or at least, they didnt get it. I think they've cottoned on now but I'm not sure the general public has. Anyway what's done is done now and we are where we are. Stay safe. Surely no government would get away with going down the route of herd immunity as that would equate to mass murder. |
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Post by William Wilson on Mar 22, 2020 7:39:23 GMT
Well, that`s not so bad. I was starting to get worried. Forgive me my perspective from the sharp edge. If you follow advice you should be able to live comfortably without getting it and do ok even if you do. But you must follow advice and if you can afford to, go further still to protect yourself. I do, OB. My wife is severely asthmatic, and I`m as scared as anyone about it all. The only close contact I have with anyone, is at work ( Asda distribution centre ) and the supermarket itself to buy grub. I look forward to the time when we can all squabble again, over issues that look pretty damn trivial right now. |
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Post by althepirate on Mar 22, 2020 7:43:03 GMT
Not good, Sky reporting a further 793 people have died in Italy, taking the death toll there to 4,825 53 more patients with COVID-19 have died in England and two further patients have died in Wales The death toll in the UK now stands at 233 The reality is 233 from 67million, but no lack of compassion, no complacency. Stay in, stay safe. |
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