Coronavirus

With the death toll creeping upwards i wondered if there is any information about death rates. For example, yesterday we were at 233 deaths but were these people already seriously unwell? Will Dr’s be recording things such as would these people have been likely  hospitalised around the same time and in all likelihood have been expected to pass away in the very near future anyway. 

I don’t personally know of anyone yet that has contracted the virus but it’s only a matter of time. Where a relatively young (say under 50), fit healthy person contracts it what is the likelihood of being hospitalised or even dying? At the moment I’m seeing public figures in this demographic coming out as testing positive and they seem to do quite well. 

I'm in no way playing down the virus and I’m taking the same precautionary steps as everyone else but hear lots of scary information and would like to see some context and better understand the strain which is being put on the health services. 

I'm not very trusting of any forms of media at the moment. Too much over sensationalising and selective reporting. For example, saw a headline grabbing piece the other day saying Britain has just had its youngest death which was a chap in his early forties. Read further and see he had that vile disease MND, terrible obviously but unhelpful reporting as trying to grab attention with a headline which will have scared a lot of other 40 year olds, in reasonable good health.

OB, are there any other thoughts on alternative methods of managing this virus being discussed by any Consultants you come across?Things that will be totally different to actions that have already taken place here and elsewhere?

I'm just an ill informed layman but wondered whether the demands on our stretched NHS would be better managed by a gradual infection of the population. If otherwise healthy, under 50’s for example were professionally infected in tranches, self quarantined for 21 days before moving on to the next batch would this lessen the strain on services and aid virus planning and resource allocation over the coming months?

Not much gets said by our leaders on this. Perhaps deliberately as they may be concerned about people being complacent, people may think they are unlikely to get seriously unwell themselves but then forget about the transmission to those less fortunate and vulnerable.

On a separate issue more sad stories keep coming out about how despicable our fellow humans can be. I had a text from the local community constable through neighbourhood watch group warning of people operating in the local area taking cash and shopping lists from elderly people and never reappearing. A chap in his late 50’s was arrested for selling dangerous, Coronavirus curing mouth wash kits. Makes me so angry and more likely to suffer a heart attack than contract the bloody virus,

Although they had an underlying condition, that condition doesn't mean they are about to die anyway. The virus is a respiratory one that means the underlying health condition will exacerbate the condition and that is the issue. People are dying well before their time. My son has respiratory issues so we are very nervous.

People who are relatively young and healthy should recover but are incubators of the virus until recovered and can spread it wider.

As for the media, funnily enough I get the impression they are going out of their eay to avoid the sort of headlines normally expected.

In terms of recording death, I would suspect it would be the official respiratory issues but with reference to the coronavirus. The figures are a genuine reflection of the condition in my opinion.

Thanks. In answer to your question, statistically probably, but there are always exceptions and also those with unknown or as yet undiagnosed issues.

Unfortunately there seems an arrogance that this "won't happen to us". I've even had a couple of older people at work almost try and belittle me for being so cautious. These same people are the ones that I am trying to protect from getting it. Some people really won't help themselves. These same people will probably be in shock in a couple of weeks time when it's too late (that's if they're still alive).

I think the analogy used by OB is likely to prove to be bang on- people standing on a beach marvelling at the tide pulling back....

Stuart, you seem very well informed and have probably done a lot more research than most given your family circumstances. I hope your lad stays safe and well btw.

What is the long term strategy of social isolation? I get that we want to reduce the strain an on the NHS and limit the spread as much as possible. What about beyond that? If we go even further with this lockdown and everything then settles down with reported death and positive tests reduced or disappearing then what? At some stage will these sanctions be lifted and we could be back to square one and have to go through the whole cycle again or is enforced isolation going to be in place until a vaccine is found and readily available?

That’s partly why I asked my earlier question which hopefully OB may be able to offer some thoughts about having some alternative, more radical approaches? 

The BBC have reported that it is considered by government and the health experts advising them that it is impossible to keep people indoors long term so there could be a number of cycles lasting a year to 18 months in total where social distancing rules are enforced and then relaxed, the timescales of each cycle dictated by the strain that the nhs is under. I get the impression that trying to predict anything about the long term future is for the most part nigh on impossible because we are still in the early days in this country.