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Post by Officer Barbrady on Mar 23, 2020 9:44:59 GMT
One other question OB (sorry about this) but why isn't Italy seeing a reduction in positive cases and deaths based on the restrictions they have put in place. We have been led to believe that the virus lasts upto 72 hours on surfaces (let's call that 3 days) We have also been told symptoms would show between 3-10 days from infection. As Italy has been quarantined for 13 days now there surely should have been a reduction in positive cases and potentially deaths . Good point. I think it is fractionally too early to judge this. The incubation phase you mention is an average. Up to 2 weeks and sometimes higher. So we are right on the cusp of seeing a positive turn in stats if those measures have been effective. Remember too that the current wave of admissions will all have experienced higher viral load on average than the first. I expect to see an improvement any day now and perhaps, between our messages we may even have seen the first hint of this? |
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Post by Officer Barbrady on Mar 23, 2020 9:49:25 GMT
Maybe you should consider others. If we all have to isolate ourselves for the good of everyone else then 12 weeks is a small price to pay. If I was provided euthanasia as an alternative option I would genuinely consider that very carefully. I can’t stand the idea of enforced incarceration in solitary confinement but likewise don’t want to be a burden to the authorities, especially the NHS. Hopefully I won’t be getting the letter. Although my medication suggests I’m in an at risk category I can’t believe I’m anywhere near the most vulnerable 1.5m in the country. Most days I run 8 miles and do a 50 mile bike ride on weekends. Despite the meds which I’ve been on for 15+ years I barely ever get the colds, bugs and normal flu which spreads through my workplace and social groups every year. People of a certain age and the obese would be better candidates for the efforts of people running around with food and medication supplies. eric, your life is yours to lead. You can minimise your risks as we have discussed. Theres a great saying going around in Italy at the moment - Stay away now so you can embrace later. 3 months is probably about the length of time you would be on ICU if you ended up there and managed to survive it. Food for thought. |
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Post by Officer Barbrady on Mar 23, 2020 9:52:49 GMT
Going out is absolutely fine. The key here is to ensure you are far enough away from everybody though. Walking round the park, fine. Queuing shoulder to shoulder for fish and chips at Weston pier is not. Remember, you don't have to be showing symptoms to be a carrier and to be infectious. When you are home, wash anything you touched on the way in and then yourself. Shouldn't be a problem. Infection control is not always perfect but even if you do get exposed, you can limit the amount of exposure you get which (we think) is important to the severity of symptoms you do get. If shopping, do your best to distance. Supermarkets are an excellent place to pick up germs. When you get home take the above steps and wipe down anything you've touched including in the car. You can wipe down anything needing the fridge or freezer and then if possible, just leave the rest in bags for 72 hours. That's interesting advice. I would not have considered wiping down my shopping or the inside of my car. What is your suggestion for wiping down food items? I don't have much in the way of sanitiser but I do have plenty of soap and water. Will that be enough? I've been stuck inside my house for a couple of weeks (apart from a weekly trip to Tesco) since I was told to work from home for the foreseeable so it's good to know that popping out for a walk is still allowed as long as we adhere to social distancing. Thanks for the confirmation. I still feel that popping to the shops for essentials is the greatest risk of infection. My Tesco store has put black tape on the floors at checkouts to try and get shoppers to adhere to distancing but that does not seem to be working. Indeed, when I was there on Friday for my weekly shop I was standing behind the marked area as instructed and another shopper walked in front of me. Seems they thought I hadn't moved forward quickly enough and they saw an opportunity to nip in. Soap and water!! Soap breaks down the fatty shell of the viral cell. Alcohol gel only does this if greater than 60% concentration which many aren't actually. |
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Post by althepirate on Mar 23, 2020 10:04:07 GMT
Again I really appreciate your effort OB finished at 11 last night and on here this morning giving pages of advice, amazing and thank you so much!
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Post by William Wilson on Mar 23, 2020 10:06:24 GMT
Really hoping I’m not going to be a one of the 1.5m to get a letter this week. A life in complete isolation for three months doesn’t really seem much of a life at all. The best analogy I can come up with is that our parents/grand parents had to pack up their lives and go fight a war for five years. All we have to do is sit on our arses at home for a short spell. A bit like France in 1939. |
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Post by Officer Barbrady on Mar 23, 2020 10:11:00 GMT
If you are fit and healthy (no pre-existing medical conditions) and under 50, the likelihood of you being hospitalised is very small. For the general population, I would (very) broadly expect this to happen (n=100 patients) Start 100 people 75% get the virus (n=75) 30% require healthcare (n=25)* 30% of those require ICU admission (n=8)* 50% of those will not survive (n=4)* We are hearing that the ones in the higher risk group tend to deviate more towards 10% death rate and the younger ones more towards 1% so the above is average. If you look at the ones that I have marked with *, this is where healthcare capacity comes in. Right now we are potentially doing a little better than this but as pressure is applied, the * parts may begin to fail for some patients in access, ability to refer, available beds and treatments and so on. This is where we begin to see shift. So, as a fit and healthy individual your chances of dying are very small indeed but as time goes on, those odds may begin to shorten because if you are unlucky enough to reach line 3 or 4 in the above model, those % may have worsened. A 4% death rate seems to be the anticipated figure across countries if all the figures are accurate. For the UK with a population of 67M that's 2.68M people which is truly shocking.
On a separate note, I PM'd you yesterday afternoon and wonder if you have had chance to read it yet. I would appreciate your NHS expertise.
I f**ked this up. Really sorry. Start 100 people 75% get the virus (n=75) 30% require healthcare (n=25)* 30% require admission (n=8)* 50% of those require ICU admission (n=4)* 50% of those will not survive (n=2)* So 2% not 4% And that all rests as well on the number infected in the first instance. If far less get it, let's say half of that, numbers look far better. Sorry again, I'm super tired! |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2020 10:12:52 GMT
If I was provided euthanasia as an alternative option I would genuinely consider that very carefully. I can’t stand the idea of enforced incarceration in solitary confinement but likewise don’t want to be a burden to the authorities, especially the NHS. Hopefully I won’t be getting the letter. Although my medication suggests I’m in an at risk category I can’t believe I’m anywhere near the most vulnerable 1.5m in the country. Most days I run 8 miles and do a 50 mile bike ride on weekends. Despite the meds which I’ve been on for 15+ years I barely ever get the colds, bugs and normal flu which spreads through my workplace and social groups every year. People of a certain age and the obese would be better candidates for the efforts of people running around with food and medication supplies. You'd rather die than stay at home for a bit to protect yourself and others? Really? Possibly yes. I’m far too cowardly to take matters into my own hands but if there was a painless option then it’s something I’d consider. Clearly not going to be an option so I’ll just have to see how things pan out. |
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Post by Officer Barbrady on Mar 23, 2020 10:17:00 GMT
Again I really appreciate your effort OB finished at 11 last night and on here this morning giving pages of advice, amazing and thank you so much! You're welcome. I'm no expert at all but obviously this virus is my working life for the foreseeable future. I'll say what I know, what I think and always tell you which is which and if I get it wrong, I'll correct myself openly. We still know so little about this one and how it is going to pan out and things are changing constantly. But if its useful, I'll carry on. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2020 10:33:55 GMT
A 4% death rate seems to be the anticipated figure across countries if all the figures are accurate. For the UK with a population of 67M that's 2.68M people which is truly shocking.
On a separate note, I PM'd you yesterday afternoon and wonder if you have had chance to read it yet. I would appreciate your NHS expertise.
I f**ked this up. Really sorry. Start 100 people 75% get the virus (n=75) 30% require healthcare (n=25)* 30% require admission (n=8)* 50% of those require ICU admission (n=4)* 50% of those will not survive (n=2)* So 2% not 4% And that all rests as well on the number infected in the first instance. If far less get it, let's say half of that, numbers look far better. Sorry again, I'm super tired! I think you will be excused on this occasion! Keep up the good work it’s much appreciated - all very useful information. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2020 10:47:45 GMT
I had to go for a walk on Sunday to clear my head. Kids and wife were stressing me out. I don't want to lose that freedom because others have abused the freedom we do have. Makes me sick to think how ignorant and/or naïve some of these people are. All the people queueing up to ransack the supermarket. What can they possibly still need I hope there is no further knee jerk reaction from the government after the pictures of people gathering in popular outdoor spots at the weekend. People are clearly trying to stay healthy, get some time outdoors but didn’t really think through about all going to the same popular locations. I reckon many will have seen the news pictures and feel guilty today but will have learned their lesson and next time go walking with their family in more appropriate, less busy areas. Something along the German model of restricting to small groups, two, three or maybe four but no more seems reasonable and manageable? Interesting about the need for some fresh and air and time alone when stressed by the wife and kids. I wonder if the imposed restrictions will lead to increased amounts of domestic violence. I’m not suggesting you are a vest wearing wife beater btw Peter! The supermarket ransacking is ridiculous and unnecessary. At Sainsbury’s Emerson’s Green yesterday things did seem far less hectic and with more stock on shelves so hopefully over the worst? The nurse who’s video went viral certainly prompted a lot of thought and discussion - instead of having a dedicated hour slot for them why not allow them to visit whenever is convenient and give them a ‘personal shopper’ from their staff to collect sold out items from their stores out the back? |
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Post by peterparker on Mar 23, 2020 10:55:26 GMT
I had to go for a walk on Sunday to clear my head. Kids and wife were stressing me out. I don't want to lose that freedom because others have abused the freedom we do have. Makes me sick to think how ignorant and/or naïve some of these people are. All the people queueing up to ransack the supermarket. What can they possibly still need I hope there is no further knee jerk reaction from the government after the pictures of people gathering in popular outdoor spots at the weekend. People are clearly trying to stay healthy, get some time outdoors but didn’t really think through about all going to the same popular locations. I reckon many will have seen the news pictures and feel guilty today but will have learned their lesson and next time go walking with their family in more appropriate, less busy areas. Something along the German model of restricting to small groups, two, three or maybe four but no more seems reasonable and manageable? Interesting about the need for some fresh and air and time alone when stressed by the wife and kids. I wonder if the imposed restrictions will lead to increased amounts of domestic violence. I’m not suggesting you are a vest wearing wife beater btw Peter! The supermarket ransacking is ridiculous and unnecessary. At Sainsbury’s Emerson’s Green yesterday things did seem far less hectic and with more stock on shelves so hopefully over the worst? The nurse who’s video went viral certainly prompted a lot of thought and discussion - instead of having a dedicated hour slot for them why not allow them to visit whenever is convenient and give them a ‘personal shopper’ from their staff to collect sold out items from their stores out the back? I mean it's one thing to go for a walk. I have a park right by me and I could walk round that without getting near anybody, but people have actually travelled to these places like WSM or Snowdon. I hope it's a case of people not really thinking about what they are doing rather than being ignorant |
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Post by Officer Barbrady on Mar 23, 2020 11:01:51 GMT
Germany are doing so so well. They have followed WHO advice exactly. Sustainability will be the question but for now they are looking very good.
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Post by William Wilson on Mar 23, 2020 11:02:45 GMT
You'd rather die than stay at home for a bit to protect yourself and others? Really? Possibly yes. I’m far too cowardly to take matters into my own hands but if there was a painless option then it’s something I’d consider. Clearly not going to be an option so I’ll just have to see how things pan out. Eric, I`ve run long distance all my adult life, ( eight miles this morning, in the lovely sunshine ) and I`m hopelessly addicted to it myself, but if giving up for 3 or 4 or 5 months helps keep me ( and others ) alive, that`s what I`ll reluctantly do. How many years have you been following the Gas? Surely a few months away from pounding the pavements, is a doddle compared to that? When all this is over, I reckon we should all meet up in the Wellington. Hell, I`ll even buy Oldie a glass of crème de menthe. UTG. William. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2020 11:19:36 GMT
Possibly yes. I’m far too cowardly to take matters into my own hands but if there was a painless option then it’s something I’d consider. Clearly not going to be an option so I’ll just have to see how things pan out. Eric, I`ve run long distance all my adult life, ( eight miles this morning, in the lovely sunshine ) and I`m hopelessly addicted to it myself, but if giving up for 3 or 4 or 5 months helps keep me ( and others ) alive, that`s what I`ll reluctantly do. How many years have you been following the Gas? Surely a few months away from pounding the pavements, is a doddle compared to that? When all this is over, I reckon we should all meet up in the Wellington. Hell, I`ll even buy Oldie a glass of crème de menthe. UTG. William. Blimey. That's an offer you don't see very often. I know for a fact that in William's wallet the banknotes still have George VI on them ! |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2020 11:28:24 GMT
Eric, I`ve run long distance all my adult life, ( eight miles this morning, in the lovely sunshine ) and I`m hopelessly addicted to it myself, but if giving up for 3 or 4 or 5 months helps keep me ( and others ) alive, that`s what I`ll reluctantly do. How many years have you been following the Gas? Surely a few months away from pounding the pavements, is a doddle compared to that? When all this is over, I reckon we should all meet up in the Wellington. Hell, I`ll even buy Oldie a glass of crème de menthe. UTG. William. Blimey. That's an offer you don't see very often. I know for a fact that in William's wallet the banknotes still have George VI on them ! Contactless card payments if you don’t mind! |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2020 11:34:42 GMT
Possibly yes. I’m far too cowardly to take matters into my own hands but if there was a painless option then it’s something I’d consider. Clearly not going to be an option so I’ll just have to see how things pan out. Eric, I`ve run long distance all my adult life, ( eight miles this morning, in the lovely sunshine ) and I`m hopelessly addicted to it myself, but if giving up for 3 or 4 or 5 months helps keep me ( and others ) alive, that`s what I`ll reluctantly do. How many years have you been following the Gas? Surely a few months away from pounding the pavements, is a doddle compared to that? When all this is over, I reckon we should all meet up in the Wellington. Hell, I`ll even buy Oldie a glass of crème de menthe. UTG. William. I’ve quite enjoyed this little break from Rovers after supporting them since the early 80’s and following them regularly from the 90’s. Breaking away from that and other group activities has been fairly easy. The prospect of months on end of not seeing another human being, not getting to see my family in Dorset for months and being prevented from keeping fit and active in the fresh air (with social distancing of course) is just too grim a prospect. I like the sound of a beer in the Welly but that seems a million years away at the moment. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2020 11:41:04 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2020 11:49:04 GMT
Possibly yes. I’m far too cowardly to take matters into my own hands but if there was a painless option then it’s something I’d consider. Clearly not going to be an option so I’ll just have to see how things pan out. Eric, I`ve run long distance all my adult life, ( eight miles this morning, in the lovely sunshine ) and I`m hopelessly addicted to it myself, but if giving up for 3 or 4 or 5 months helps keep me ( and others ) alive, that`s what I`ll reluctantly do. How many years have you been following the Gas? Surely a few months away from pounding the pavements, is a doddle compared to that? When all this is over, I reckon we should all meet up in the Wellington. Hell, I`ll even buy Oldie a glass of crème de menthe. UTG. William. Your on. |
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Post by baggins on Mar 23, 2020 11:50:40 GMT
If you are fit and healthy (no pre-existing medical conditions) and under 50, the likelihood of you being hospitalised is very small. For the general population, I would (very) broadly expect this to happen (n=100 patients) Start 100 people 75% get the virus (n=75) 30% require healthcare (n=25)* 30% of those require ICU admission (n=8)* 50% of those will not survive (n=4)* We are hearing that the ones in the higher risk group tend to deviate more towards 10% death rate and the younger ones more towards 1% so the above is average. If you look at the ones that I have marked with *, this is where healthcare capacity comes in. Right now we are potentially doing a little better than this but as pressure is applied, the * parts may begin to fail for some patients in access, ability to refer, available beds and treatments and so on. This is where we begin to see shift. So, as a fit and healthy individual your chances of dying are very small indeed but as time goes on, those odds may begin to shorten because if you are unlucky enough to reach line 3 or 4 in the above model, those % may have worsened. A 4% death rate seems to be the anticipated figure across countries if all the figures are accurate. For the UK with a population of 67M that's 2.68M people which is truly shocking.
On a separate note, I PM'd you yesterday afternoon and wonder if you have had chance to read it yet. I would appreciate your NHS expertise.
I think, think, the 4% relates only to those that have an underlying health issue, not 4% of the entire population. |
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Post by Hugo the Elder on Mar 23, 2020 11:54:42 GMT
Would not be surprised if we are all put in some kind of lock down soon. We just have to suck it up. As usual a bunch of selfish pricks ruin it for everyone. People hoarding food. Fighting in supermarkets. Snowdonia seeing record breaking visitors. Parks and seaside resorts packed. Some pubs remaining open. The worst of humanity on show. Very depressing. Christ, are you a journalist for the Daily Mail? Any chance you can look as well at the best parts of humanity on show right now? The thousands of people helping each other for a start? Let's pick the worst bits of society and say that's all of it shall we? www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-51958105My wife is a nurse. I dont need a lesson about all the good stuff that is being done but people do need to stop being twats. |
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