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Post by neogas on Sept 27, 2020 11:39:48 GMT
How long? 7 points from Northampton, Lincoln and Burton would be my expectation.......
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Post by bluebiro on Sept 27, 2020 12:53:12 GMT
Groaner will always find a excuse. Next game it's the lack of experience
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gruad
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Post by gruad on Sept 27, 2020 13:53:39 GMT
I'd give him to the end of October. Seven games with only 2 against teams that have started well. Five against mostly lower teams. Not unreasonable to expect 3 Wins, 2 Draws, 2 Losses. That would give us W3, D3, L4 from our first 10 games and for me he then stays. Anything less and he needs to go. This is an absolutely perfect measure. This is 11 points from 7 games which is 1.6 pts per game ie mid table form. So it's not pie in the sky, unobtainable. The other thing is that, if the target became unobtainable by end of the period ie first 4 games provided less than 2 points, he could be relieved early.
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Post by LJG on Sept 27, 2020 13:57:10 GMT
I'd give him to the end of October. Seven games with only 2 against teams that have started well. Five against mostly lower teams. Not unreasonable to expect 3 Wins, 2 Draws, 2 Losses. That would give us W3, D3, L4 from our first 10 games and for me he then stays. Anything less and he needs to go. This is an absolutely perfect measure. This is 11 points from 7 games which is 1.6 pts per game ie mid table form. So it's not pie in the sky, unobtainable. The other thing is that, if the target became unobtainable by end of the period ie first 4 games provided less than 2 points, he could be relieved early. Ooohh mid-table form! Yippee! This is why you can't beat the excitement of the league! My mouth is watering at an absolute classic of a season finishing 12th-16th. Yummy!
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Post by RD on Sept 27, 2020 13:59:47 GMT
This is an absolutely perfect measure. This is 11 points from 7 games which is 1.6 pts per game ie mid table form. So it's not pie in the sky, unobtainable. The other thing is that, if the target became unobtainable by end of the period ie first 4 games provided less than 2 points, he could be relieved early. Ooohh mid-table form! Yippee! This is why you can't beat the excitement of the league! My mouth is watering at an absolute classic of a season finishing 12th-16th. Yummy! Haha Well we should dare to dream! I have wet dreams of 3 shots on target and 2 points over the next 2 games! Call me a dreamer! I don't care!
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gruad
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Post by gruad on Sept 27, 2020 14:00:25 GMT
Doh! Cant even add
This is an absolutely perfect measure.
This is 12 points from 7 games which is 1.7 pts per game ie mid table form. So it's not pie in the sky, unobtainable.
The other thing is that, if the target became unobtainable by end of the period ie first 4 games provided less than 3 points, he could be relieved early.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2020 14:01:53 GMT
Some statistical analysis of Ben Garner's time at Rovers:
Win rate: 8.7%
• 7.04% of total shots by Rovers have been scored o 25% shots on target by Rovers have been scored • 12.5% total shots conceded by Rovers have resulted in goals against o 34% shots on target conceded by Rovers have resulted in goals against
• Rovers require 14.2 shots to score o Rovers require 3.93 shots on target to score • Rovers take 2.57 shots on target per game o Rovers score on average every 1.52 games
• Rovers require 7.97 shots to concede o Rovers require 2.9 shots on target to concede • Rovers concede 5.3 shots on target per game o Rovers concede every 0.55 games
• For every goal scored we've conceded 2.8
What does this tell us? Firstly, those statistics are pretty damning. Over a 23 game period, we have conceded very nearly three times as many as we've scored.
Secondly, if you take a look at the squad now, we're less likely to score goals as the player who scored 34% of our goals last season has been sold, so these stats are only going to go in one direction (at least in the short term, as it'll take Hanlon a while to both get up to speed, and have a decent enough sample size). When looking at who he's been replaced by, Hanlon has a goal in every 6 games at this level. That would leave him with 8 goals for us this season. JCH managed 13 in just 26 games last season, which would give him 23 goals over the 46 games. So, we've sold 23 goals and replaced them with 8.
I also think it paints a picture of our defence. We're conceding more than 1 in 3 of our shots on target against, whereas our opponents are conceding less than 1 in 4 against us. Why is that? In terms of fouls, we've conceded 317 and got 314 in that time. Unfortunately, the open source foul stats aren't that detailed in terms of where they're conceded and types of fouls- so I cannot check the type of foul gained or conceded (I have my suspicions we don't conceded enough professional fouls, but I cannot check currently), anyone with access to these figures, I'd love to see them.
So, where would these particular figures and results have landed us in the last 2 seasons?
Well:
Rovers PPG under Garner: 0.57ppg
19/20 Tranmere relegated with 0.94 ppg Southend relegated with 0.54 ppg Bolton relegated with 0.41 ppg* 18/19 Plymouth relegated with 1.09 ppg Walsall relegated with 1.02 ppg Scunthorpe relegated with 1 ppg Bradford City relegated with 0.89 ppg
* Bolton were docked 12 points, so their actual PPG is 0.76ppg.
Only one team of the last 7 to be relegated have had a worse PPG than us.
Draw your own conclusions as to how long to give BG, I've given my opinions in the past, I just hope this post gives you the chance to be objective.
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Post by socrates on Sept 27, 2020 14:03:26 GMT
I'd give him to the end of October. Seven games with only 2 against teams that have started well. Five against mostly lower teams. Not unreasonable to expect 3 Wins, 2 Draws, 2 Losses. That would give us W3, D3, L4 from our first 10 games and for me he then stays. Anything less and he needs to go. This is an absolutely perfect measure. This is 11 points from 7 games which is 1.6 pts per game ie mid table form. So it's not pie in the sky, unobtainable. The other thing is that, if the target became unobtainable by end of the period ie first 4 games provided less than 2 points, he could be relieved early. Yesterday I wanted him gone 100% but today I’m 50%/50% out / what your saying.
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Post by neogas on Sept 27, 2020 14:05:38 GMT
Some statistical analysis of Ben Garner's time at Rovers: Win rate: 8.7% • 7.04% of total shots by Rovers have been scored o 25% shots on target by Rovers have been scored • 12.5% total shots conceded by Rovers have resulted in goals against o 34% shots on target conceded by Rovers have resulted in goals against • Rovers require 14.2 shots to score o Rovers require 3.93 shots on target to score • Rovers take 2.57 shots on target per game o Rovers score on average every 1.52 games • Rovers require 7.97 shots to concede o Rovers require 2.9 shots on target to concede • Rovers concede 5.3 shots on target per game o Rovers concede every 0.55 games • For every goal scored we've conceded 2.8 What does this tell us? Firstly, those statistics are pretty damning. Over a 23 game period, we have conceded very nearly three times as many as we've scored. Secondly, if you take a look at the squad now, we're less likely to score goals as the player who scored 34% of our goals last season has been sold, so these stats are only going to go in one direction (at least in the short term, as it'll take Hanlon a while to both get up to speed, and have a decent enough sample size). When looking at who he's been replaced by, Hanlon has a goal in every 6 games at this level. That would leave him with 8 goals for us this season. JCH managed 13 in just 26 games last season, which would give him 23 goals over the 46 games. So, we've sold 23 goals and replaced them with 8. I also think it paints a picture of our defence. We're conceding more than 1 in 3 of our shots on target against, whereas our opponents are conceding less than 1 in 4 against us. Why is that? In terms of fouls, we've conceded 317 and got 314 in that time. Unfortunately, the open source foul stats aren't that detailed in terms of where they're conceded and types of fouls- so I cannot check the type of foul gained or conceded (I have my suspicions we don't conceded enough professional fouls, but I cannot check currently), anyone with access to these figures, I'd love to see them. So, where would these particular figures and results have landed us in the last 2 seasons? Well: Rovers PPG under Garner: 0.57ppg 19/20 Tranmere relegated with 0.94 ppg Southend relegated with 0.54 ppg Bolton relegated with 0.41 ppg* 18/19 Plymouth relegated with 1.09 ppg Walsall relegated with 1.02 ppg Scunthorpe relegated with 1 ppg Bradford City relegated with 0.89 ppg * Bolton were docked 12 points, so their actual PPG is 0.76ppg. Only team of the last 7 to be relegated have had a worse PPG than us, but they also played 23 more games than we have. Draw your own conclusions as to how long to give BG, I've given my opinions in the past, I just hope this post gives you the chance to be objective. how many managers with this record over half a season have survived or turned round? Is there an example?
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Post by bluebiro on Sept 27, 2020 14:06:14 GMT
Yet the guy across the river never managed before not his team taken them top of the championship..basically you can do the job or you cant Dont need 2 sodding seasons just to get a shot on target.get rid now and tonight . Guy will kill this club if he has another 6 games
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gruad
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Posts: 325
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Post by gruad on Sept 27, 2020 14:06:24 GMT
This is an absolutely perfect measure. This is 11 points from 7 games which is 1.6 pts per game ie mid table form. So it's not pie in the sky, unobtainable. The other thing is that, if the target became unobtainable by end of the period ie first 4 games provided less than 2 points, he could be relieved early. Ooohh mid-table form! Yippee! This is why you can't beat the excitement of the league! My mouth is watering at an absolute classic of a season finishing 12th-16th. Yummy! Not proposing its a good place do be if he meets this target, but couple of times in my younger days I have had 'trackers' put on me at work where you have to make this output or you are out and that has bucked my ideas up. I was just thinking this would make a good 'tracker' for Ben.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2020 14:18:22 GMT
Some statistical analysis of Ben Garner's time at Rovers: Win rate: 8.7% • 7.04% of total shots by Rovers have been scored o 25% shots on target by Rovers have been scored • 12.5% total shots conceded by Rovers have resulted in goals against o 34% shots on target conceded by Rovers have resulted in goals against • Rovers require 14.2 shots to score o Rovers require 3.93 shots on target to score • Rovers take 2.57 shots on target per game o Rovers score on average every 1.52 games • Rovers require 7.97 shots to concede o Rovers require 2.9 shots on target to concede • Rovers concede 5.3 shots on target per game o Rovers concede every 0.55 games • For every goal scored we've conceded 2.8 What does this tell us? Firstly, those statistics are pretty damning. Over a 23 game period, we have conceded very nearly three times as many as we've scored. Secondly, if you take a look at the squad now, we're less likely to score goals as the player who scored 34% of our goals last season has been sold, so these stats are only going to go in one direction (at least in the short term, as it'll take Hanlon a while to both get up to speed, and have a decent enough sample size). When looking at who he's been replaced by, Hanlon has a goal in every 6 games at this level. That would leave him with 8 goals for us this season. JCH managed 13 in just 26 games last season, which would give him 23 goals over the 46 games. So, we've sold 23 goals and replaced them with 8. I also think it paints a picture of our defence. We're conceding more than 1 in 3 of our shots on target against, whereas our opponents are conceding less than 1 in 4 against us. Why is that? In terms of fouls, we've conceded 317 and got 314 in that time. Unfortunately, the open source foul stats aren't that detailed in terms of where they're conceded and types of fouls- so I cannot check the type of foul gained or conceded (I have my suspicions we don't conceded enough professional fouls, but I cannot check currently), anyone with access to these figures, I'd love to see them. So, where would these particular figures and results have landed us in the last 2 seasons? Well: Rovers PPG under Garner: 0.57ppg 19/20 Tranmere relegated with 0.94 ppg Southend relegated with 0.54 ppg Bolton relegated with 0.41 ppg* 18/19 Plymouth relegated with 1.09 ppg Walsall relegated with 1.02 ppg Scunthorpe relegated with 1 ppg Bradford City relegated with 0.89 ppg * Bolton were docked 12 points, so their actual PPG is 0.76ppg. Only team of the last 7 to be relegated have had a worse PPG than us, but they also played 23 more games than we have. Draw your own conclusions as to how long to give BG, I've given my opinions in the past, I just hope this post gives you the chance to be objective. how many managers with this record over half a season have survived or turned round? Is there an example? Definitely not at Rovers, Garner's is by some distance the worst 23 game run this century. As for other teams, I don't know, but if there are any over such a long sample size, it'd be a pretty remarkable turnaround.
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gruad
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Post by gruad on Sept 27, 2020 14:29:03 GMT
This is an absolutely perfect measure. This is 11 points from 7 games which is 1.6 pts per game ie mid table form. So it's not pie in the sky, unobtainable. The other thing is that, if the target became unobtainable by end of the period ie first 4 games provided less than 2 points, he could be relieved early. Yesterday I wanted him gone 100% but today I’m 50%/50% out / what your saying. In business you dont just fire someone; you tell them that their performance is poor and place them under close supervision. You give them a limited target that demonstrates basic competence that they should be able to meet without any excuses for external factors (ie new team, limited budget etc etc). BG performance has been dire and so he should be placed under close supervision under the stipulation that if he is unable to demonstrate basic competence over a fixed time he is gone. FAIK Wael may be doing this as I speak. If he isnt, he should be. But he cant make it public as that is morale destroying and gives other teams an edge. If BG gets fired in the heat of the moment then he could see himself as a noble victim whose strategies would one day have paid untold dividends. Do it this way then he only has himself to blame.
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Post by heartofgas on Sept 27, 2020 14:45:44 GMT
I'd give him to the end of October. Seven games with only 2 against teams that have started well. Five against mostly lower teams. Not unreasonable to expect 3 Wins, 2 Draws, 2 Losses. That would give us W3, D3, L4 from our first 10 games and for me he then stays. Anything less and he needs to go. This is an absolutely perfect measure. This is 11 points from 7 games which is 1.6 pts per game ie mid table form. So it's not pie in the sky, unobtainable. The other thing is that, if the target became unobtainable by end of the period ie first 4 games provided less than 2 points, he could be relieved early. It would be 12 points from 10 games and there’s nothing to suggest were going to see this sort of form. I guess we can all decide on when we think he should go but there’s only one persons opinion that counts.
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Post by heartofgas on Sept 27, 2020 14:47:20 GMT
how many managers with this record over half a season have survived or turned round? Is there an example? Definitely not at Rovers, Garner's is by some distance the worst 23 game run this century. As for other teams, I don't know, but if there are any over such a long sample size, it'd be a pretty remarkable turnaround. I think if Martin Dobson was given 23 games he would have had similar record.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2020 14:52:16 GMT
I'm one of those that thought BG deserved time with his own squad and part of me (called it blind faith if you like) still has that feeling. I felt yesterday that in general play we weren't bad, played some good stuff at times but were awful in our own box and lacked ideas in theirs. Having said that we were unfortunate with their 2nd goal and Hamer should have equalised for 2-2. However Northampton now becomes a massive game for him, we cant afford to defend set pieces as badly as we did yesterday. Hopefully Little or Hare will be fit as Kilgour is not a full back, 4231 or 4312 for me, hate to say must win for 4th game of season but to me it feels that way Thing is, WSA, you may be right with general play not too bad.... that's your opinion. I notice you didn't say 'good' though? But is general play not too bad enough? Enough to win games? Enough to make for a promotion push? Enough to stave off relegation? Enough to satisfy you, perhaps? We all have different criteria on how we view matches, but I would hope we can all agree that relegation is a no no in this climate for our club? If you don't, we are truly worlds apart. If you do agree, what after 20+ matches (most I've seen live at the venue) do you think suggests we won't get relegated with BG as it is now? I'm genuinely dying to know... ? After hearing the revelation that we are now okay in the middle third I’ve completely revised my opinion on Garner. Give him 30 more games. We can’t score, we can’t defend but we can now pass it about a bit dead good like in ineffectual areas of the pitch. It’s only taken us 24 games to get to this point under him so at the current rate of progression by game 60 we might be having shots on goal and keeping the goals against tally to one or two. Garner In.
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Post by axegas on Sept 27, 2020 14:54:16 GMT
How long? 7 points from Northampton, Lincoln and Burton would be my expectation....... That would be my hope but under Garner certainly not my expectation.
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Post by TAGas on Sept 27, 2020 14:57:23 GMT
You know it's bad when fans started hoping we'd lost 5/6-1 yesterday to get Garner even more in trouble as I can see where they are coming from.
I don't think we'll get the news that he has been relieved of his duties tomorrow, but I do think IMO that the powers at be will be having a discussion about it.
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Post by neogas on Sept 27, 2020 14:57:58 GMT
How long? 7 points from Northampton, Lincoln and Burton would be my expectation....... That would be my hope but under Garner certainly not my expectation. I understand your point, but I think less than that needs a decision to be made.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2020 14:59:29 GMT
As BG is clearly a well regarded coach, and even seems to be liked by the players, I would personally be happy to see him remain at the club as a coach or even as an Assistant Manager. His results since he took over though have clearly pointed to the fact that he is not a manager. I reckon he could do a good job behind the scenes, but we need a manager to take charge of the tactics and motivation of the players. The fact that they're apparently looking great in training but it's not translating to match days can only be a failure of the management, surely? Individual mistakes can still creep in, but we have been dreadful in both boxes for the majority of his games as manager, which cannot be attributed solely to isolated individual mistakes. Does he strike you that he would be happy with that? He comes across like he has a bit of an ego so I don’t think a demotion would be acceptable. Anyone with a shred of pride and love of the club would resign out of embarrassment after seeing the complete capitulation from 4th to bottom, I can only think he still wants paying off for his “efforts”. The question is: where will he go once he leaves? Who will give him another managerial gig? Will he be able to go back to coaching? Will premiership youths be able to respect him when they look up his achievements and see that he has one of the worst managerial records in football league history?
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