stuart1974
Proper Gas
Posts: 12,538 
Member is Online
|
Post by stuart1974 on Feb 21, 2022 22:47:25 GMT
More an invitation to war. I'd suspect by recognising the two areas, he'll be able to deploy "peacekeepers" and there will be nothing Kyiv can do about it without escalation. If they do then the gloves will come off and Vlad won't be the aggressor (in his mind anyway). Putin will hold a referendum, staged of course, then subsume the two back to Mother Russia. He'll get the land corridor to Crimea after all, France and Germany will water down any sanctions as it won't be a full invasion so Europe still gets its gas supplies and Nordstream 2 goes ahead. Ironically, if Kyiv accepted this as a fait accompli then it removes the existing territorial disputes and clears the path to Nato accession. Russia already had the weapons and troops situated within close proximity to Ukraine to deter them from any kind of military intervention into Luhansk and Donetsk in the event of Russia recognising the territories. We’re seeing 75% of Russia’s operational forces, amphibious landing crafts, field hospitals assembled near to the Ukraine border, completely unnecessary and a costly waste of time if Donbas was Putin’s solitary goal. Russia subsuming the two territories does nothing to address the concerns that Putin laid out in his speech. In fact they make the situation worse for him. The economic value of the two provinces doesn’t come close to mitigating the cost of sanctions, as you say Ukraine’s nato membership becomes more likely and the domestic morale boost short lived. It doesn’t even give him a land corridor to Crimea there are a few other provinces in the way. I think Putin cares about the strategic alignment Ukrainian government far more than he does the fate of the two separatist republics, hence the long winded speech talking down the existence of the Ukrainian state and justifying military intervention to Russians watching at home. I don't disagree, he'll take what he can including the bits between Russia and the two separatist regions. The deployment if so much if his forces should also be seen as a sign of strength to the Russian people, to Ukraine, to his new best mate sat in Beijing and to Nato. If he feels he can do more, he will. Anschluss and Sudetenland part deux. |
|
|
|
Post by axegas on Feb 21, 2022 23:09:06 GMT
Russia already had the weapons and troops situated within close proximity to Ukraine to deter them from any kind of military intervention into Luhansk and Donetsk in the event of Russia recognising the territories. We’re seeing 75% of Russia’s operational forces, amphibious landing crafts, field hospitals assembled near to the Ukraine border, completely unnecessary and a costly waste of time if Donbas was Putin’s solitary goal. Russia subsuming the two territories does nothing to address the concerns that Putin laid out in his speech. In fact they make the situation worse for him. The economic value of the two provinces doesn’t come close to mitigating the cost of sanctions, as you say Ukraine’s nato membership becomes more likely and the domestic morale boost short lived. It doesn’t even give him a land corridor to Crimea there are a few other provinces in the way. I think Putin cares about the strategic alignment Ukrainian government far more than he does the fate of the two separatist republics, hence the long winded speech talking down the existence of the Ukrainian state and justifying military intervention to Russians watching at home. I don't disagree, he'll take what he can including the bits between Russia and the two separatist regions. The deployment if so much if his forces should also be seen as a sign of strength to the Russian people, to Ukraine, to his new best mate sat in Beijing and to Nato. If he feels he can do more, he will. Anschluss and Sudetenland part deux. With respect though I think Putin has already attained his ‘hard man’ image. Crimea has significance in Russian history so the annexation of two small republics won’t compare with that domestically. Much will depend on the sanctions, by all means dissent has been slowly growing over the way the Russian economy has been run. If sanctions cut hard, then this distraction will quickly be forgotten about. That’s why I think the overall goal of having Ukraine reinstated in Russia’s orbit is much more important for Putin. That could come with casualties that risk attracting the ire of Russians back home though. Feels a bit do or die for Putin to be honest. |
|
|
|
Post by axegas on Feb 21, 2022 23:19:26 GMT
Interesting this. Don’t know if this is just the view of one member of the U.S administration but there seems to be some disagreement over how hard exactly the West should go on sanctions over this. Token sanctions could send a signal to the Russia that they can get away with destabilising actions that violate International law, yet full blown sanctions put Europe’s energy security in doubt and reinforce Russia’s narratives of a hostile west at a time when the invasion of Ukraine hangs in the balance.
|
|
stuart1974
Proper Gas
Posts: 12,538
Member is Online
|
Post by stuart1974 on Feb 21, 2022 23:19:54 GMT
I don't disagree, he'll take what he can including the bits between Russia and the two separatist regions. The deployment if so much if his forces should also be seen as a sign of strength to the Russian people, to Ukraine, to his new best mate sat in Beijing and to Nato. If he feels he can do more, he will. Anschluss and Sudetenland part deux. With respect though I think Putin has already attained his ‘hard man’ image. Crimea has significance in Russian history so the annexation of two small republics won’t compare with that domestically. Much will depend on the sanctions, by all means dissent has been slowly growing over the way the Russian economy has been run. If sanctions cut hard, then this distraction will quickly be forgotten about. That’s why I think the overall goal of having Ukraine reinstated in Russia’s orbit is much more important for Putin. That could come with casualties that risk attracting the ire of Russians back home though. Feels a bit do or die for Putin to be honest. The land border to Crimea is needed from a practical point of view, the bridge didn't really work as I understand it, so he needs it. The false flag incidents, talk of Ukrainian Nazis camps and genocide is to soften up the Russian people to justify intervention. The massing of forces is both for intimidation and for and further exploitation if the opportunity arises. I agree this could finish him if it goes badly. |
|
stuart1974
Proper Gas
Posts: 12,538
Member is Online
|
Post by stuart1974 on Feb 21, 2022 23:30:03 GMT
Interesting this. Don’t know if this is just the view of one member of the U.S administration but there seems to be some disagreement over how hard exactly the West should go on sanctions over this. Token sanctions could send a signal to the Russia that they can get away with destabilising actions that violate International law, yet full blown sanctions put Europe’s energy security in doubt and reinforce Russia’s narratives of a hostile west at a time when the invasion of Ukraine hangs in the balance. Not surprised, something I alluded to earlier. By doing this in stages, salami slices of you will, he can divide the West as each country will have their own red line. A full scale invasion will cause immediate responses, small incremental moves will not be as severe. |
|
|
|
Post by baggins on Feb 22, 2022 12:52:35 GMT
I'm a tad lost as to why this is happening. Russia doesn't want Ukrain joining NATO. A group that hasn't ever invaded a Country? Russia wants a pro Russian leader in charge of Ukrain and will put that in place by force? Russia wants something Ukraine has? I don't get it.
Please, small words so I can understand
|
|
yattongas
Forum Legend
Posts: 15,441
Member is Online
|
Post by yattongas on Feb 22, 2022 13:26:02 GMT
I'm a tad lost as to why this is happening. Russia doesn't want Ukrain joining NATO. A group that hasn't ever invaded a Country? Russia wants a pro Russian leader in charge of Ukrain and will put that in place by force? Russia wants something Ukraine has? I don't get it. Please, small words so I can understand Putin wants the old USSR back . (There’s a song in there somewhere?) |
|
|
|
Post by oldie on Feb 22, 2022 13:29:05 GMT
I'm a tad lost as to why this is happening. Russia doesn't want Ukrain joining NATO. A group that hasn't ever invaded a Country? Russia wants a pro Russian leader in charge of Ukrain and will put that in place by force? Russia wants something Ukraine has? I don't get it. Please, small words so I can understand Fear, loathing and paranoia. Typical fascist. |
|
|
|
Post by baggins on Feb 22, 2022 13:32:03 GMT
I'm a tad lost as to why this is happening. Russia doesn't want Ukrain joining NATO. A group that hasn't ever invaded a Country? Russia wants a pro Russian leader in charge of Ukrain and will put that in place by force? Russia wants something Ukraine has? I don't get it. Please, small words so I can understand Putin wants the old USSR back . (There’s a song in there somewhere?) Why now? |
|
yattongas
Forum Legend
Posts: 15,441
Member is Online
|
Post by yattongas on Feb 22, 2022 14:03:09 GMT
Putin wants the old USSR back . (There’s a song in there somewhere?) Why now? Because he perceives the west as weak at the moment |
|
|
|
Post by trevorgas on Feb 22, 2022 14:28:56 GMT
Because he perceives the west as weak at the moment And he's 100% right watch the vast majority of European Countries fudge sanctions led by the Germans who want Russian gas The lesson from history is that if you don't stand up to a despot at the earliest opportunity we will all pay a much bigger cost when we have to later |
|
|
|
Post by baggins on Feb 22, 2022 14:31:09 GMT
Because he perceives the west as weak at the moment Financially or militarily? |
|
|
|
Post by trevorgas on Feb 22, 2022 14:36:53 GMT
Because he perceives the west as weak at the moment Financially or militarily? Morally |
|
|
|
Post by Officer Barbrady on Feb 22, 2022 14:49:41 GMT
Because he perceives the west as weak at the moment And he's 100% right watch the vast majority of European Countries fudge sanctions led by the Germans who want Russian gas The lesson from history is that if you don't stand up to a despot at the earliest opportunity we will all pay a much bigger cost when we have to later True sadly. Nice to see you back BTW. |
|
|
|
Post by trevorgas on Feb 22, 2022 14:55:30 GMT
And he's 100% right watch the vast majority of European Countries fudge sanctions led by the Germans who want Russian gas The lesson from history is that if you don't stand up to a despot at the earliest opportunity we will all pay a much bigger cost when we have to later True sadly. Nice to see you back BTW. Thanks for your comment, much appreciated,might be wrong on Germany as they will not now certificate Nordstream 2 which stops that for the moment. |
|
yattongas
Forum Legend
Posts: 15,441
Member is Online
|
Post by yattongas on Feb 22, 2022 15:18:43 GMT
True sadly. Nice to see you back BTW. Thanks for your comment, much appreciated,might be wrong on Germany as they will not now certificate Nordstream 2 which stops that for the moment. Surprising move from the Germans as I thought they would bottle it. Shame our sanctions are so Lilly livered . 5 Russian banks nobody has heard of and a few oligarchs who have already moved their money. The Tory party is awash with Russian money and needs to start acting now . |
|
stuart1974
Proper Gas
Posts: 12,538
Member is Online
|
Post by stuart1974 on Feb 22, 2022 15:25:45 GMT
I'm a tad lost as to why this is happening. Russia doesn't want Ukrain joining NATO. A group that hasn't ever invaded a Country? Russia wants a pro Russian leader in charge of Ukrain and will put that in place by force? Russia wants something Ukraine has? I don't get it. Please, small words so I can understand Putin wants the old USSR back . (There’s a song in there somewhere?) |
|
stuart1974
Proper Gas
Posts: 12,538
Member is Online
|
Post by stuart1974 on Feb 22, 2022 15:44:19 GMT
Because he perceives the west as weak at the moment Financially or militarily? Lack of unity, Putin likes sowing discord and taking advantage of disunity. Just see Young Labour. 😶 Militarily we are very weak. |
|
yattongas
Forum Legend
Posts: 15,441
Member is Online
|
Post by yattongas on Feb 22, 2022 15:46:37 GMT
Financially or militarily? Lack of unity, Putin likes sowing discord and taking advantage of disunity. Just see Young Labour. 😶 Militarily we are very weak. A few far right Russian apologists on GeeBeebies as well . |
|
|
|
Post by Officer Barbrady on Feb 22, 2022 16:08:57 GMT
Financially or militarily? Lack of unity, Putin likes sowing discord and taking advantage of disunity. Just see Young Labour. 😶 Militarily we are very weak. Weak all over. Decade of cuts, self inflicted brexit damage, pandemic, leadership vacuum. As weak as we have ever been really. |
|
