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Post by yattongas on Sept 4, 2024 20:25:50 GMT
Bit of fun ….. which loon will they choose ?
pritti Awful is already out of the running falling at the first hurdle.
Honest Bob Jenrick leads with the most votes after the first round , followed by Badenoch , not so Cleverly, Tűgentwat , Mel (who?)Stride .
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Sept 4, 2024 22:42:26 GMT
There's going to be a lot of tactical voting and horse trading throughout this process.
If you are asking me to war game, then I reckon it'll look like this:
Round 2 - Mel Stride will be eliminated.
Round 3 - Tom Tugendhat will be eliminated.
The one nation Tories will centre on James Cleverly.
Round 4 - Close between them all, probably too close at this stage, but for the sake of debate I can see Badenoch losing on a tactical vote leaving Jenrick and Cleverly to go to the membership.
If Badenoch makes the final two, she wins.
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Post by yattongas on Sept 5, 2024 8:19:51 GMT
There's going to be a lot of tactical voting and horse trading throughout this process. If you are asking me to war game, then I reckon it'll look like this: Round 2 - Mel Stride will be eliminated. Round 3 - Tom Tugendhat will be eliminated. The one nation Tories will centre on James Cleverly. Round 4 - Close between them all, probably too close at this stage, but for the sake of debate I can see Badenoch losing on a tactical vote leaving Jenrick and Cleverly to go to the membership. If Badenoch makes the final two, she wins. Agree with final 2 but think Tugentwat will be next out |
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Sept 5, 2024 12:06:07 GMT
Someone posted this link on the other forum which I thought was interesting.
conservativehome.com/2024/09/04/patrick-english-winning-the-conservative-leadership-race-requires-appealing-to-three-tribes/
"the post-election PCP remains similar in terms of its divides to pre-election, with around 2-in-5 still associated with the liberal ‘Bright Blue’ group, one quarter affiliated to the European Research Group, and 35 per cent aligned with the Blue Collar Conservatism group.
There is no such typology of Conservative party members, but evidence from polling (including below) consistently suggests the membership is much more right-wing than the balance in the PCP.
As well, plenty of polling evidence (again, including the below) has demonstrated that the Conservative party membership is significantly more right-wing, and has significantly different priorities, to even Conservative voters, let alone the wider public."
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Post by aghast on Sept 5, 2024 16:27:42 GMT
Someone posted this link on the other forum which I thought was interesting. conservativehome.com/2024/09/04/patrick-english-winning-the-conservative-leadership-race-requires-appealing-to-three-tribes/ "the post-election PCP remains similar in terms of its divides to pre-election, with around 2-in-5 still associated with the liberal ‘Bright Blue’ group, one quarter affiliated to the European Research Group, and 35 per cent aligned with the Blue Collar Conservatism group. There is no such typology of Conservative party members, but evidence from polling (including below) consistently suggests the membership is much more right-wing than the balance in the PCP. As well, plenty of polling evidence (again, including the below) has demonstrated that the Conservative party membership is significantly more right-wing, and has significantly different priorities, to even Conservative voters, let alone the wider public." Who'd have thought all those nice old people hosting fundraising garden tea parties in Surrey were really Farage fans? Actually it's not surprising at all. |
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Post by yattongas on Sept 6, 2024 9:38:57 GMT
Come on the supergas …..where’s your money going ? |
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Post by supergas on Sept 6, 2024 10:20:42 GMT
Come on the supergas …..where’s your money going ? If Badenoch makes the final two she will probably win the vote from the party members. Overall it's already taking far too long and giving Starmer too much time to make too many unchallenged mistakes. If the rumours of Cameron supporting Cleverly are true that might move it in an interesting direction but the biggest problem is that all the contenders seem to think Starmer and not Farage is their biggest problem.... |
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Post by yattongas on Sept 6, 2024 12:33:21 GMT
Come on the supergas …..where’s your money going ? If Badenoch makes the final two she will probably win the vote from the party members. Overall it's already taking far too long and giving Starmer too much time to make too many unchallenged mistakes. If the rumours of Cameron supporting Cleverly are true that might move it in an interesting direction but the biggest problem is that all the contenders seem to think Starmer and not Farage is their biggest problem.... Disappointed 🙄, thought you’d of strategised this and would of come up with your winner. |
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Post by aghast on Sept 6, 2024 16:16:36 GMT
Impossible task for the Tories.
Choose someone like Cleverly to take on Starmer head to head and the proto-Reformists will scream blue murder and start all sorts of of rebellions and coups, which will tie the party up in knots.
Elect a right winger to appease the party membership and the great British electorate will say 'no thanks', despite the people on X and Facebook who seem to think most of the country is gagging to get Nigel as President.
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Post by supergas on Sept 7, 2024 10:48:14 GMT
If Badenoch makes the final two she will probably win the vote from the party members. Overall it's already taking far too long and giving Starmer too much time to make too many unchallenged mistakes. If the rumours of Cameron supporting Cleverly are true that might move it in an interesting direction but the biggest problem is that all the contenders seem to think Starmer and not Farage is their biggest problem.... Disappointed 🙄, thought you’d of strategised this and would of come up with your winner. ...this time doesn't matter. *If* whoever wins it lasts until 2027, the playing field will have completely changed and (ahead of the next election) they will likely run (and lose) or be replaced by someone with more of a chance of winning... If we're properly wargaming - and that is a fun game to play - start with who will be Prime Minister in 2026.... |
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Post by yattongas on Sept 7, 2024 10:52:16 GMT
Disappointed 🙄, thought you’d of strategised this and would of come up with your winner. ...this time doesn't matter. *If* whoever wins it lasts until 2027, the playing field will have completely changed and (ahead of the next election) they will likely run (and lose) or be replaced by someone with more of a chance of winning... If we're properly wargaming - and that is a fun game to play - start with who will be Prime Minister in 2026.... Starmer . Next question? |
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Post by supergas on Sept 7, 2024 11:05:49 GMT
...this time doesn't matter. *If* whoever wins it lasts until 2027, the playing field will have completely changed and (ahead of the next election) they will likely run (and lose) or be replaced by someone with more of a chance of winning... If we're properly wargaming - and that is a fun game to play - start with who will be Prime Minister in 2026.... Starmer . Next question? *must not bet with Yatton about politics* *must not bet with Yatton about politics* *must not bet with Yatton about politics* |
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Post by yattongas on Sept 7, 2024 11:10:03 GMT
*must not bet with Yatton about politics* *must not bet with Yatton about politics* *must not bet with Yatton about politics* £100 ? |
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Post by supergas on Sept 7, 2024 12:20:38 GMT
*must not bet with Yatton about politics* *must not bet with Yatton about politics* *must not bet with Yatton about politics* £100 ? Nope. I think it will happen and might have a flutter at the bookies though.... |
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Post by yattongas on Sept 7, 2024 13:20:48 GMT
Nope. I think it will happen and might have a flutter at the bookies though.... Ok . I think there’s absolutely no chance it will happen. I’ll dig up these posts in 18 months time to gloat 😂👌 |
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Post by stuart1974 on Sept 7, 2024 13:41:45 GMT
Nope. I think it will happen and might have a flutter at the bookies though.... Ok . I think there’s absolutely no chance it will happen. I’ll dig up these posts in 18 months time to gloat 😂👌 Too many newly elected Labour MPs owe him for their seats. Only way he'll go that soon would be an electoral implosion or illness. Blair was rumoured at the time to have agreed to step down within a couple of years in favour of Gordon Brown. |
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Post by yattongas on Sept 7, 2024 13:57:49 GMT
Ok . I think there’s absolutely no chance it will happen. I’ll dig up these posts in 18 months time to gloat 😂👌 Too many newly elected Labour MPs owe him for their seats. Only way he'll go that soon would be an electoral implosion or illness. Blair was rumoured at the time to have agreed to step down within a couple of years in favour of Gordon Brown. Super still thinks Brexit was a good idea so he’s not exactly clued up on this sort of stuff ! 😂 Also remember Raynorgate ? 🙄👍 |
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Post by stuart1974 on Sept 7, 2024 15:44:05 GMT
Too many newly elected Labour MPs owe him for their seats. Only way he'll go that soon would be an electoral implosion or illness. Blair was rumoured at the time to have agreed to step down within a couple of years in favour of Gordon Brown. Super still thinks Brexit was a good idea so he’s not exactly clued up on this sort of stuff ! 😂 Also remember Raynorgate ? 🙄👍 Raynorgate? I'm still waiting to find out the real reason why Starmer didn't include his family in his campaign. 🤔 |
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Post by supergas on Sept 8, 2024 13:11:48 GMT
Super still thinks Brexit was a good idea so he’s not exactly clued up on this sort of stuff ! 😂 Also remember Raynorgate ? 🙄👍 Raynorgate? I'm still waiting to find out the real reason why Starmer didn't include his family in his campaign. 🤔 The rumours are still out there, another reason why I'm not convinced he will last a full term. His party is still divided and so it won't be long before someone tries to knife him in the back - whether they are successful depends who it is and how/when they try... |
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Post by yattongas on Sept 8, 2024 13:22:46 GMT
Raynorgate? I'm still waiting to find out the real reason why Starmer didn't include his family in his campaign. 🤔 The rumours are still out there, another reason why I'm not convinced he will last a full term. His party is still divided and so it won't be long before someone tries to knife him in the back - whether they are successful depends who it is and how/when they try... Ain’t gonna happen mate 😂! |
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