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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 8:23:28 GMT
AfD are shaking things up.
AfD make huge gains
There are three State elections next week. They could be interesting. |
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Post by William Wilson on Mar 8, 2016 8:25:23 GMT
How about the AfD, Nobby? How do the Germans you`ve spoken to, feel about them? We had some local elections last Sunday. The results should be known any day now, but it looks as though Afd will get around 15% of the vote. That is way up on the predicted 5%. Whether it is local, state or national elections, you need a minimum of 5% to get seats. If AfD do get 15% then that would be quite remarkable, especially if you see the voting process. Oh, and for anyone who advocates PR as a form of electing people, they should really have a look at the voting process here. I'll have to start a thread on it, it's very complicated and weighed heavily towards the ruling party. Still seems a fairer system to me. Get 20% of the vote, and get 20% of the seats. Every vote`s a winner, baby, that`s no lie. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 9:11:44 GMT
We had some local elections last Sunday. The results should be known any day now, but it looks as though Afd will get around 15% of the vote. That is way up on the predicted 5%. Whether it is local, state or national elections, you need a minimum of 5% to get seats. If AfD do get 15% then that would be quite remarkable, especially if you see the voting process. Oh, and for anyone who advocates PR as a form of electing people, they should really have a look at the voting process here. I'll have to start a thread on it, it's very complicated and weighed heavily towards the ruling party. Still seems a fairer system to me. Get 20% of the vote, and get 20% of the seats. Every vote`s a winner, baby, that`s no lie. The voting system is a right mess. Let me attempt to explain. First off, the actual ballot paper is more than eight times the size an A4 piece of paper. See the photo below. It lists every single person up for election. I don't know the formula, but basically the amount of candidates you can have is based on your current share. For example, the CDU (ruling party) may have forty people on the list. A small party, like the AfD, may only have four people on the list. Now, I had seventy one votes to cast. I could cast a maximum of three votes for any individual. In fact, I could allocate one, two or three votes to whoever I liked. This means when voting, I would have to make seventy one crosses on the ballot paper. To make things easier, you could just mark a single box (actually a circle), and all of the seventy one votes would go to that party. However, if I choose the CDU box, then the whole seventy one votes would get allocated to the CDU. However, if I choose the AfD box, having only four candidates means that only twelve of my votes actually count (maximum three for each candidate). The other fifty nine votes are 'lost'. This means if five people allocate their whole seventy one votes (total 355 votes) to the AfD, in reality only sixty get counted in total. If one person allocates their seventy ones votes to the CDU, then the whole seventy one votes get counted. So, one person voting for the CDU carries more weight than five people voting for the AfD. So, even though the AfD have made huge gains, the reality is that it is probably even bigger than the results suggest, because the system is designed to stop the sudden growth of a small party. Growth has to be gradual, and spread over a period of time, as in the next election, AfD will be able to have more candidates on the ballot paper, so therefore increase their share a bit more. I don't fully understand the voting system, as it's complicated. Bear in mind, the ballot paper below is just for local elections. The ballot paper for State and National elections is even bigger. I get to vote only in Local, State and European elections. I am not allowed to vote in a National election.  |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 10:05:14 GMT
"Get 20% of the vote, and get 20% of the seats. Every vote`s a winner, baby, that`s no lie."
As you can see from my poor explanation, in reality, what you said doesn't really apply.
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Post by Hugo the Elder on Mar 8, 2016 10:27:09 GMT
That's a ridiculous voting slip!
Your keyboard looks cleaner than I expected.
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Post by supergas on Mar 8, 2016 10:31:25 GMT
To make things easier, you could just mark a single box (actually a circle), and all of the seventy one votes would go to that party. However, if I choose the CDU box, then the whole seventy one votes would get allocated to the CDU. However, if I choose the AfD box, having only four candidates means that only twelve of my votes actually count (maximum three for each candidate). The other fifty nine votes are 'lost'. This means if five people allocate their whole seventy one votes (total 355 votes) to the AfD, in reality only sixty get counted in total. If one person allocates their seventy ones votes to the CDU, then the whole seventy one votes get counted. So, one person voting for the CDU carries more weight than five people voting for the AfD. Are there many lawsuits over this kind of thing? |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 10:55:18 GMT
To make things easier, you could just mark a single box (actually a circle), and all of the seventy one votes would go to that party. However, if I choose the CDU box, then the whole seventy one votes would get allocated to the CDU. However, if I choose the AfD box, having only four candidates means that only twelve of my votes actually count (maximum three for each candidate). The other fifty nine votes are 'lost'. This means if five people allocate their whole seventy one votes (total 355 votes) to the AfD, in reality only sixty get counted in total. If one person allocates their seventy ones votes to the CDU, then the whole seventy one votes get counted. So, one person voting for the CDU carries more weight than five people voting for the AfD. Are there many lawsuits over this kind of thing? No. Germans are Germans. They just accept it, as they do most things. It's a romantic myth though about the PR system ie. one man one vote, get 20% of the vote get 20% of the seats. It doesn't work quite like that in reality. The system was designed to stop a party like the Nazi's ever gaining control again. Change can only be gradual and spread over a long period of time. If the AfD ever started to reach the dizzy heights of say, 20% of the vote, then you can be pretty sure the voting system would be changed again. Bear this in mind the next time you hear someone in the UK hark on about changing the current election system to a PR system. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 10:57:12 GMT
That's a ridiculous voting slip! Your keyboard looks cleaner than I expected. But the window behind it is a mess. |
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Post by supergas on Mar 8, 2016 11:41:25 GMT
Are there many lawsuits over this kind of thing? No. Germans are Germans. They just accept it, as they do most things. It's a romantic myth though about the PR system ie. one man one vote, get 20% of the vote get 20% of the seats. It doesn't work quite like that in reality. The system was designed to stop a party like the Nazi's ever gaining control again. Change can only be gradual and spread over a long period of time. If the AfD ever started to reach the dizzy heights of say, 20% of the vote, then you can be pretty sure the voting system would be changed again. Bear this in mind the next time you hear someone in the UK hark on about changing the current election system to a PR system. The only people who want PR over here are the lunatics in the Green Party and UKIP (plus whatever's left of the Liberal Democrats...) My funniest stat about PR (or in fact AV, but one leads to the other) is this. In the 2010 General Election, the parties in favour of AV (including the Liberal Democrats, SNP, Sinn Fein, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and UKIP) polled over 8.8 million votes...yet only 6.1 million people voted in favour of AV! Now you might think this is voter apathy but I then raise you this - the major parties who were against it (Conservatives, DUP, BNP) polled 11.5m votes at the General Election and the referendum was defeated with 13m votes.... |
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Post by aztecatwerton on Mar 8, 2016 18:06:39 GMT
I feel I have to pick you up on a few points....I agree with most of your post but... Cameron gave a 'cast iron' guarantee to give a referendum on ratifying a treaty treaty that the Labour Government then ratified through our Parliament in 2008...so in 2009 it became EU law and there was no way back... In 2008 the Conservatives lost a vote on their proposal to put the treaty to a referendum - something opposed by Labour and Lib Dems who said the treaty "does not have constitutional implications".... which was correct except for all the massive constitutional implications it had... If there were no Tory backbenchers there would be no referendum....it's a subtle differentiation, but it's easy to argue Farage would have more sway in this referendum if he'd stayed with the Tories rather than leaving in 1993 (and by this I mean a man of his skill and political ability could have achieved all he has done under the Tory banner and really put the cat amongst the pigeons from as a senior member from inside the party) Woah! If this was a corruption contest in the knockout rounds of a tournament it would be a no score draw. The gravy-trains are equal, just the size of the budgets and the number of sucklers is larger.... Finally the thing I agree with most....but you, Cameron, the rest of the EU and probably most of the UK voters have run right past the main point. Firstly there are no refugees in Calais. Refugees are required to register in the first EU state they arrive in. However as the 'crisis' as escalated, the EU has basically been helping economic migrants move through Italy, Greece, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania as for some reason no refugees can find refuge (or be bothered to) register in any of these states....no idea how they end up in Calais (well I do but for some reason I get called all kinds of names under the sun when I suggest reasons...) Happy to be corrected supergas. How I remember it is that David Cameron made a big thing about it, but only admitted after the general election that he was not going to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. There were calls that he should hold the referendum anyway, even though it had already been ratified. There were a lot of unhappy voters that voted for him on the basis of this promise. Yes, the Tory backbenchers have played a very important role, I agree. I appreciate that Labour and the Lib Dems have no interest in democracy or the British people, but I feel very bitter towards the Tory party as well. My family are traditionally Tory voters, but not any more. I feel betrayed by people like Theresa May who put on a Eurosceptic mask when it suits her career, but is really nothing of the sort. Ted Heath misled the British public back in the 70s and the Tories took us in to this whole mess. I like Jacob Rees-Mogg, Dr Liam Fox and people of that ilk but deep down the Tories can't be trusted on Europe any more than Labour or the Lib Dems. Look at Kenneth Clarke - the man needs sectioning. I worry how Boris Johnson only seemed to make his mind up on the EU at the last minute - I made my mind up over 20 years ago. I agree with everything you say about the economic migrants at Calais. Just imagine if there were giant processing centres in Turkey and each EU state had to take a percentage of these people. Do you think they will be grateful to be allocated safety in Lithuania or Bulgaria or will they stamp their feet and demand to be housed in Germany or Scandinavia? And why is this Europe's problem? What about the rich middle eastern countries who aren't taking any? As an aside, I see the budget airlines are coming out in favour of staying in and playing their part in Project Fear. In the last few years, I've had cheap flights to Morocco, Macedonia, Turkey, Norway and Switzerland....all places not in the EU. Easyjet even fly to Russia and Israel these days! |
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Post by supergas on Mar 8, 2016 18:41:22 GMT
Happy to be corrected supergas. How I remember it is that David Cameron made a big thing about it, but only admitted after the general election that he was not going to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. There were calls that he should hold the referendum anyway, even though it had already been ratified. There were a lot of unhappy voters that voted for him on the basis of this promise. Yes, the Tory backbenchers have played a very important role, I agree. I appreciate that Labour and the Lib Dems have no interest in democracy or the British people, but I feel very bitter towards the Tory party as well. My family are traditionally Tory voters, but not any more. I feel betrayed by people like Theresa May who put on a Eurosceptic mask when it suits her career, but is really nothing of the sort. Ted Heath misled the British public back in the 70s and the Tories took us in to this whole mess. I like Jacob Rees-Mogg, Dr Liam Fox and people of that ilk but deep down the Tories can't be trusted on Europe any more than Labour or the Lib Dems. Look at Kenneth Clarke - the man needs sectioning. I worry how Boris Johnson only seemed to make his mind up on the EU at the last minute - I made my mind up over 20 years ago. I agree with everything you say about the economic migrants at Calais. Just imagine if there were giant processing centres in Turkey and each EU state had to take a percentage of these people. Do you think they will be grateful to be allocated safety in Lithuania or Bulgaria or will they stamp their feet and demand to be housed in Germany or Scandinavia? And why is this Europe's problem? What about the rich middle eastern countries who aren't taking any? As an aside, I see the budget airlines are coming out in favour of staying in and playing their part in Project Fear. In the last few years, I've had cheap flights to Morocco, Macedonia, Turkey, Norway and Switzerland....all places not in the EU. Easyjet even fly to Russia and Israel these days Whist what Cameron said before and what he did afterwards seem to be different, he was between a rock and a hard place in that scenario. Labour had signed up to the Lisbon Treaty (and some might say they knew they were going to lose in 2010 so deliberately didn't fight Britain's corner in the negotiations beforehand....). If he'd held a straight in/out referendum then we'd have lost all goodwill with the EU. If he'd tried to renegotiate straight away we'd have been laughed out of the room. He's basically waited as long as he needed to to renegotiate and then call the referendum. The fact that he couldn't get any of the concessions we wanted/need is a matter for you and your vote... Ted Heath bears no more relation to the modern Conservative Party than Paul Buckle does to our current management team. And yes I see your point about Theresa May, but on the flip side, if you can see through it why do you feel betrayed? Oh and both May and Johnson made their mind up based on their future career options for the next ten years, not what they actually believe. Is that such a bad thing? As a middle-manager, sometimes my decisions are unpopular but right for the business, sometimes they could literally be the toss of a coin and at that point I look to what I'll be doing 12 months from now... Rich Middle East taking none....Russia bombing the hell out of Syria and taking very very few (based on the fact none of them are heading that way....) The only reason it's Europe's problem is that they want to be here. The solution depends on how many of them we want to take.... |
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Post by aztecatwerton on Mar 8, 2016 19:11:35 GMT
We haven't got any goodwill with the EU anyway. They only want our money. The UK has opposed 72 measures in the EU Council and we failed to block a single one - each one went on to become law. Every time we are bullied by Germany and France. Even that Lithuanian Prime Minister had a pop once when Cameron did his veto.
I don't see what's wrong with trading with Europe (and the rest of the world) but being a nation which governs itself.
I feel betrayed because I thought Theresa May meant what she said - she obviously didn't.
Ok, Ted Heath was a long time ago (I understand he received a substantial sum of money for taking us in to the Common Market) but he lied to the British public and we are being lied to again. Re May and Boris, yes it is a bad thing, I would hope they would want to do what's best for the country and not their careers but I realise I am being extremely naive.
We shouldn't have to renegotiate - politicians shouldn't have signed away this country's powers in the first place.
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Post by oldtimer on Mar 9, 2016 19:53:58 GMT
When the EU was the common market General De Gaulle told them whatever you do don't let British in they ignored him and we have paid for it ever since
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Post by pirateman on Mar 9, 2016 20:11:16 GMT
Have to say that the common market led to one of my favourite songs
Adge Cutler and the Wurzels
When the common market comes to Stanton Drew
Folks say nowadays we've got to change our ways,
The papers say so, so I s'pose 'tis true,
We've got to take the chance, with Germany and France,
And live like all they foreign people do.
Now, I wonder if they'll build the Eiffel Tower on 'arptree 'ill,
Put gondolas down on the River Chew,
Shall us all drive on the right, and drink up all the night-
When the Common Market comes to Stanton Drew?
Some folks seem to think, we'll 'ave to change our drink,
There's rumours flyin', so I s'pose 'tis right,
They say they've seen a tank of Portuguese vin blanc,
Jammed up in t'High Street t'other night.
They say that port and brandy will sell for £1 a quart,
And the Druids Arms won't close till ver' nigh two,
And we'll all drink caviar from a girt big cider jar,
When the Common Market comes to Stanton Drew!
Now, as for what we eat, we must export more meat,
Send 'em all our best prime beef and ham,
While we does stuff our guts with Transylvanian nuts
And garlic-flavoured processed German spam!
When George comes home from milkin', he'll get a big surprise,
When 'e sits down expectin' Irish stew,
And 'is wife says "George, I'll get 'ee, a girt dollop of spaghetti,"
When the Common Market comes to Stanton Drew!
When the market-time comes round, down the pub we'll all be found
Jammin' up the public bar all day
And you won't get through the doors, for Messieurs and Senors
Arguin' about the price of summer hay.
With Timsbury full of Belgians, and Radstock full of Dutch,
The Paulton farmer won't know what to do,
And you might see Acker Bilk advertisin' Pensford milk,
When the Common Market comes to Stanton Drew!
In the evenin' times I s'pose, we'll sip of our vin rose,
Just like they do in the Argentine
And we'll watch they foreign blokes, with their girt big 'ats and cloaks,
Flamingo-in down on the village green.
We'll 'ave to watch our wenches when they dark-eyed lads gets here,
And the local boys'll 'ave to form a queue,
They'll say "Ooh la la, oui oui," instead of "How's bist thee?"
When the Common Market comes to Stanton Drew.
When the Common Market comes to Stanton Drew
When the Common Market comes to Stanton Drew!
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Post by supergas on Mar 10, 2016 13:41:08 GMT
When the EU was the common market General De Gaulle told them whatever you do don't let British in they ignored him and we have paid for it ever since Bloody French, want us when they surrender, don't want us when they suddenly (and vaguely) have a car industry and their own boarders again.... |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2016 13:55:49 GMT
Her Maj Liz says, "out". Good enough for me.
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Post by baggins on Mar 11, 2016 6:53:36 GMT
Her Maj Liz says, "out". Good enough for me. She was just talking to you. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2016 8:32:14 GMT
Her Maj Liz says, "out". Good enough for me. She was just talking to you. Blimey, someone rattled your cage early today ! |
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Post by baggins on Mar 11, 2016 11:10:10 GMT
She was just talking to you. Blimey, someone rattled your cage early today ! Didn't sleep. Bad accident yesterday, cut my face open, from forehead to top lip, really bad, lost a shed load of blood. Not good. Black eye coming up a treat. Thankfully all cleaned up ok but I look a right state. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2016 11:17:45 GMT
Blimey, someone rattled your cage early today ! Didn't sleep. Bad accident yesterday, cut my face open, from forehead to top lip, really bad, lost a shed load of blood. Not good. Black eye coming up a treat. Thankfully all cleaned up ok but I look a right state. Christ! How did you do that? |
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