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Post by stevek192 on Mar 6, 2017 11:54:33 GMT
Looking at the other teams fixtures there are still loads of points to play for and some very interesting matches ( I have only included mainly the matches against the top sides and have not included Fleetwood or Sheffield United as we have no chance of catching them. To be honest we will need an absolutely fantastic run in to really catch any of the teams above us but looking at the fixtures remaining I would say a win over Southend on Saturday is paramount because they have probably the easiest run in.
Oxford 7 home 7away play Sheffield United tomorrow night at home and also have to play Scunthorpe, Bolton and Fleetwood at home and Bradford City and Millwall away and the away game at Northampton is never an easy one. Their last match is Home to SHREWSBURY
Southend 5 Home 6 Away Play Bolton at home and us away but on paper have the easiest run in .Their last match is BURY at Home.
Bradford City 4 Home 6 Away Play Oxford United at Home but have Scunthorpe,Sheffield United and Rochdale away. Their last game is away at ROCHDALE
Bolton 4 Home 8 Away Play Fleetwood, Oxford Southend and Scunthorpe away and finish the season with PETERBOROUGH at home.
Millwall 4 Home 7 Away Play Scunthorpe and Oxford at Home and travel to Rochdale,Sheffield united,Flletwood and us. Their last game is against us.
Scunthorpe 5 Home 6 Away Play Rochdale, Bradford and Bolton at home,Oxford and Millwall away as well as tough games at Charlton and MK Dons
Rochdale 5 Home 7 Away Play Millwall and Bradford at home and Scunthorpe Away
Certainly the longer we can go unbeaten there is no reason to write us off YET.
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Post by Fat Albert on Mar 6, 2017 12:03:24 GMT
On the one hand I'd love us to do it but on the other I'd worry we would lose DC and possibly one or two players if we did.
Realistically he would have a hard job recruiting in the championship I think, especially with our ground etc. Even if it gets the green light it will be 2 seasons before we're in it in guessing and that is a long time in football. He might well see that and get an offer too good to refuse.
It's tricky cos I'll be there Saturday praying we do it with the rest of you!
UTG
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Post by Gas Go Marching In on Mar 6, 2017 12:26:35 GMT
Looking at the other teams fixtures there are still loads of points to play for and some very interesting matches ( I have only included mainly the matches against the top sides and have not included Fleetwood or Sheffield United as we have no chance of catching them. To be honest we will need an absolutely fantastic run in to really catch any of the teams above us but looking at the fixtures remaining I would say a win over Southend on Saturday is paramount because they have probably the easiest run in. Oxford 7 home 7away play Sheffield United tomorrow night at home and also have to play Scunthorpe, Bolton and Fleetwood at home and Bradford City and Millwall away and the away game at Northampton is never an easy one. Their last match is Home to SHREWSBURY Southend 5 Home 6 Away Play Bolton at home and us away but on paper have the easiest run in .Their last match is BURY at Home. Bradford City 4 Home 6 Away Play Oxford United at Home but have Scunthorpe,Sheffield United and Rochdale away. Their last game is away at ROCHDALE Bolton 4 Home 8 Away Play Fleetwood, Oxford Southend and Scunthorpe away and finish the season with PETERBOROUGH at home. Millwall 4 Home 7 Away Play Scunthorpe and Oxford at Home and travel to Rochdale,Sheffield united,Flletwood and us. Their last game is against us. Scunthorpe 5 Home 6 Away Play Rochdale, Bradford and Bolton at home,Oxford and Millwall away as well as tough games at Charlton and MK Dons Rochdale 5 Home 7 Away Play Millwall and Bradford at home and Scunthorpe Away Certainly the longer we can go unbeaten there is no reason to write us off YET. Your figures don't add up with regards to Oxford and Rochdale as both have 13 games left not 14 and 12.
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Post by stevek192 on Mar 6, 2017 16:23:37 GMT
Apologies I just noticed that Oxfords away game shown against Coventry is in the EFL CUP FINAL so they have 7 home and 6 away. Rochdale the BBC look like they got it wrong and missed the fact that a match against Port Vale was postponed recently so they have 6 at home and 7 away.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2017 2:55:18 GMT
The lads are dancing a merry jig over my cautious predictions so far. An exciting time to be hitting form... 9 to go, you never know.
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Post by Qatar Gas on Mar 12, 2017 5:17:23 GMT
The next 8 games now against teams below us in the league. You could argue that playing teams in a relegation battle this time our year is not very easy and we may get caught out in a couple of games however, after the last month of fixtures this is going to be exciting!
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Post by Topper Gas on Mar 12, 2017 16:38:57 GMT
1 Sheffield Utd 46 +36 92 2 Fleetwood Town 46 +25 82 3 Bolton 46 +21 78 4 Bradford 46 +21 77 5 Millwall 46 +10 73 6 Scunthorpe 46 +19 72 7 Southend 46 +13 72 8 Rochdale 46 +9 72 9 Bristol Rovers 46 +7 72 10 Oxford Utd 46 +13 71 Blimey it could be a close tun thing, I've got 5th to 10th separated by just 2 pts, with us missing out on a Play Off spot by GD!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2017 17:02:36 GMT
1 Sheffield Utd 46 +32 90 2 Bolton 46 +27 84 3 Millwall 46 +19 83 4 Fleetwood Town 46 +25 81 5 Bradford 46 +22 79 6 Bristol Rovers 46 +9 74 7 Scunthorpe 46 +16 72 8 Southend 46 +11 72 9 Oxford Utd 46 +10 69 10 Walsall 46 +4 69
Optimistic, but certainly not impossible. Had us to draw at Wimbledon, Gillingham and lose to Millwall. Win the others.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2017 17:21:43 GMT
shef utd 97 Bolton 88 Scunthorpe 79 Bristol rovers 77pts Fleetwood 76 Bradford 74 millwall 72 southend 71 mk dons 71 Rochdale 71 oxford 66
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Post by socrates on Mar 12, 2017 19:47:34 GMT
1 Sheffield Utd 46 +32 90 2 Bolton 46 +27 84 3 Millwall 46 +19 83 4 Fleetwood Town 46 +25 81 5 Bradford 46 +22 79 6 Bristol Rovers 46 +9 74 7 Scunthorpe 46 +16 72 8 Southend 46 +11 72 9 Oxford Utd 46 +10 69 10 Walsall 46 +4 69 Optimistic, but certainly not impossible. Had us to draw at Wimbledon, Gillingham and lose to Millwall. Win the others. Lose last game at home still make play offs that's a different angle. I'd take it though .
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Post by Topper Gas on Mar 12, 2017 19:54:23 GMT
1 Sheffield Utd 46 +32 90 2 Bolton 46 +27 84 3 Millwall 46 +19 83 4 Fleetwood Town 46 +25 81 5 Bradford 46 +22 79 6 Bristol Rovers 46 +9 74 7 Scunthorpe 46 +16 72 8 Southend 46 +11 72 9 Oxford Utd 46 +10 69 10 Walsall 46 +4 69 Optimistic, but certainly not impossible. Had us to draw at Wimbledon, Gillingham and lose to Millwall. Win the others. Winning at both Bury, whose current form is better than ours!, and P'boro will be a big ask.
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Post by hpgas on Mar 12, 2017 20:03:06 GMT
Tragic if the 2 points we lost away at Southend (and the point they gained) due to the dodgy penalty they were given comes back to bite us.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2017 20:21:17 GMT
Tragic if the 2 points we lost away at Southend (and the point they gained) due to the dodgy penalty they were given comes back to bite us. That sort of thing evens out over the season. I don't think we make the playoffs, but I do think we will have our best finish since the start of the millennium, which is impressive.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2017 20:23:05 GMT
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Post by hometobarnsley on Mar 12, 2017 20:24:09 GMT
Just an observation but our final 10 league games (starting yesterday) are against teams that play in Blue. Not that it means anything at all. It's a long time to wait until Tuesday!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2017 22:02:35 GMT
Tragic if the 2 points we lost away at Southend (and the point they gained) due to the dodgy penalty they were given comes back to bite us. That sort of thing evens out over the season.I don't think we make the playoffs, but I do think we will have our best finish since the start of the millennium, which is impressive. I hear this a lot within football when it comes to dodgy decisions, but does it really even itself out, exactly, for everyone?
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Post by Gas_Quarters on Mar 12, 2017 22:17:22 GMT
That sort of thing evens out over the season.I don't think we make the playoffs, but I do think we will have our best finish since the start of the millennium, which is impressive. I hear this a lot within football when it comes to dodgy decisions, but does it really even itself out, exactly, for everyone? No, obviously not exactly. The point of that saying is that there's so many ifs, buts and maybes for every team during the course of the season that any team could be 20 points better or worse off if everything and every bit of luck had gone for/against them. All in all, you're gonna be on the bad end sometimes and the good end sometimes. Through time it should even itself out. UTG!
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Post by hpgas on Mar 12, 2017 22:51:42 GMT
I usually say it "evens out" as well and there are ifs and buts. However, feels different if it's the team that beat you to the playoffs with a penalty the referee admitted he shouldn't have given. Football thrives on grievances though so would be a happy contribution to the pointless merry-go-round of being a football fan. Anyway, is it just me but there don't seem to be any penalties in our games any more? Can't remember one since Southend although someone will point one out, no doubt.
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Post by gaelgas on Mar 13, 2017 12:06:43 GMT
I thought I'd look at it in a slightly different way, given that we have played most of the teams above and around us (save Peterborough and Millwall) and those in the mix for promotion and the playoffs still have to play each other. I assumed a win for our rivals in games against teams not involved in the hunt for the playoffs and a draw when two of our rivals played each other. I realise that this is not at all scientific but thought it might illustrate how hard/easy the run in for each club is. Sadly our run in doesn't look to be giving us that much of an advantage as I have us finishing 9th, the current 7 above us plus Rochdale (they do have 3 games in hand over us) finishing above us using that formula. Of course this doesn't take into account a team's form going off a cliff or fixture congestion etc, but while our run in looks pretty decent, it would seem that everyone else's is ok too.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2017 20:58:15 GMT
So 11 games to go this season and we're sitting pretty in 11th place with 48 points, passing unbeaten through a February in which I predicted we would be mullered regularly. 74 points is the average number of points needed over the last decade to get into the last play-off space in league one. I don't think for a minute we'll do it but let's examine the run-in as I see it: Oxford (A) - Draw - Win Southend (H) - Draw - WinBury (A) - Win - LoseChesterfield (H) - Win - Win Doing one better than I thought folks!
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