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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2021 7:15:13 GMT
Typical Yougov poll. Let's speak to 1000 people and what they say equates to the remaining 68,000,000 people in the country. What difference does that make? I don't care if it's owned by a Tory, labour or her majesty the Queen. It's like asking 3 Rovers fans after the Mansfield and Stevenage games if they thought they would be relegated. The 3 reply yes and then they post 100% of Rovers fans believe the club will be relegated! It's absolute tosh! No, that's not how polls work. Firstly they would never use that small a sample but also they don't just ask the primary question and scale the answers up to the wider group....they'd know/ask the demographics of the specific people they are polling and know the demographics of the wider group they are sampling. It's incredibly scientific, regularly updated and it turns out to usually be pretty accurate.... agree in a scientific kind of way, but polls can easily be manipulated? what if poll results can influence peoples future decisions? they would be a very powerful tool. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Aug 26, 2021 10:03:46 GMT
It’ll be the Taliban’s relation with IS-KP (Islamic State Khorosan province) that western intelligence will be watching now. Previously, the Taliban and IS have been in competition. Principally over illicit streams to fund their guerrilla warfare, kind of like two rival criminal gangs encroaching on each other’s territory. The two groups fought a fair bit, with the Taliban even being backed by the Americans at one point. However now the Taliban have the keys to the castle. If they want to raise money, they can tax citizens. Rural drug stashes mean less to them now. IS-KP is led by former Taliban commanders and follow a similar agenda of extreme Islamist ideas and Sharia law with one or two differences. So it’s not hard to see them work closely with the Taliban, similar to the Haqqani network. What’s worse for the west is that 1000s of Islamist extremists have been released from Afghan jails since the Taliban advance and Al-Qaeda are supposedly still active within the country. Terrorists operate by new methods these days. The internet is used as an effective tool to radicalise people 1000s of miles away. Whilst this isn’t a new threat, you’d imagine it will be an increased one now that Afghanistan acts like a magnet for Islamist extremists all over the world. Looks like something could be brewing, sadly. It'll only hasten withdrawal and fewer will be able to leave. "He told Nick Ferrari this morning: "The intelligence has grown significantly to the point where in all good conscience we couldn't do anything but change the travel advice. "There is real imminence, there is real credibilty" to the intelligence, he said. "Imminence as in days?" Nick asked. "Hours," said Mr Heappey. "Hence the urgency of changing the travel advice last night." There is "real lethality to the plans that we're aware of," he added. "I was given lines today for what might happen if there was an attack during this media round." www.lbc.co.uk/news/armed-forces-minister-warns-of-possible-isis-k-attack-in-kabul-within-hours/ |
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Post by baggins on Aug 26, 2021 11:03:47 GMT
Just amazed that this has come as a shock to both us and the US. Intelligence Service my ass.
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Post by oldie on Aug 26, 2021 11:15:22 GMT
Just amazed that this has come as a shock to both us and the US. Intelligence Service my ass. Or just BS to excuse the chaos of our extraction from Afghanistan |
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Post by baggins on Aug 26, 2021 11:20:41 GMT
Just amazed that this has come as a shock to both us and the US. Intelligence Service my ass. Or just BS to excuse the chaos of our extraction from Afghanistan But our withdrawal has been on the cards for months, years even, and we couldn't predict this? Now were're scrabbling about like amateurs. Jesus wept. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2021 11:20:55 GMT
Just amazed that this has come as a shock to both us and the US. Intelligence Service my ass. thought it a relatively accepted view that the intelligence services are appalling and not quite like you'd see on james bond. but the military know full well what their own strategic plan is, so damage limitation whilst they retreat. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Aug 26, 2021 11:21:44 GMT
Just amazed that this has come as a shock to both us and the US. Intelligence Service my ass. Which bit, the ISIS threat to the airport or the collapse of the Afghan army leading to the Taliban takeover? |
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Post by baggins on Aug 26, 2021 11:46:48 GMT
Just amazed that this has come as a shock to both us and the US. Intelligence Service my ass. Which bit, the ISIS threat to the airport or the collapse of the Afghan army leading to the Taliban takeover? Yes, that. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2021 12:02:16 GMT
see the media have picked out a story about a guy named pen farthing, who wants to get his rescue dogs & cats out of afg.
says it all really.
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Post by stuart1974 on Aug 26, 2021 12:05:51 GMT
Which bit, the ISIS threat to the airport or the collapse of the Afghan army leading to the Taliban takeover? Yes, that. The collapse was predicted, although not the speed. Reports suggested Kabul to be taken within 90 days. Most personnel and equipment not needed in Afghanistan had already been withdrawn, what's left is mostly gifted. Anything sensitive has or will be destroyed or removed. Always exceptions, of course. In terms of the ISIS threat, that's expected and the imminent possibility being reported suggests there is something happening. Hopefully a false alarm but can't take chances and a 'spectacular' on departure can't be ruled out. |
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Post by baggins on Aug 26, 2021 12:09:58 GMT
The collapse was predicted, although not the speed. Reports suggested Kabul to be taken within 90 days. Most personnel and equipment not needed in Afghanistan had already been withdrawn, what's left is mostly gifted. Anything sensitive has or will be destroyed or removed. Always exceptions, of course. In terms of the ISIS threat, that's expected and the imminent possibility being reported suggests there is something happening. Hopefully a false alarm but can't take chances and a 'spectacular' on departure can't be ruled out. But why wasn't the speed expected? We've had intelligence over there for 20 years!! |
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Post by oldie on Aug 26, 2021 12:22:00 GMT
The collapse was predicted, although not the speed. Reports suggested Kabul to be taken within 90 days. Most personnel and equipment not needed in Afghanistan had already been withdrawn, what's left is mostly gifted. Anything sensitive has or will be destroyed or removed. Always exceptions, of course. In terms of the ISIS threat, that's expected and the imminent possibility being reported suggests there is something happening. Hopefully a false alarm but can't take chances and a 'spectacular' on departure can't be ruled out. But why wasn't the speed expected? We've had intelligence over there for 20 years!! Because Nobody wanted to upset Trump and his happy band of lunatics by pointing out that A) Negotiating with the Taliban but excluding the Afghan Government C) Releasing 5000 Taliban prisoners D) Requesting the release of one of the Taliban leaders from a Pakistani prison E) Committing to a withdrawal date without enforcing Taliban commitments Was likely to fatally undermine the Afghan government the confidence of their American trained armed forces. Which is what happened. |
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Post by baggins on Aug 26, 2021 12:26:22 GMT
But why wasn't the speed expected? We've had intelligence over there for 20 years!! Because Nobody wanted to upset Trump and his happy band of lunatics by pointing out that A) Negotiating with the Taliban but excluding the Afghan Government C) Releasing 5000 Taliban prisoners D) Requesting the release of one of the Taliban leaders from a Pakistani prison E) Committing to a withdrawal date without enforcing Taliban commitments Was likely to fatally undermine the Afghan government the confidence of their American trained armed forces. Which is what happened. That place, is going to be a blood bath within 6 months. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Aug 26, 2021 14:01:43 GMT
The collapse was predicted, although not the speed. Reports suggested Kabul to be taken within 90 days. Most personnel and equipment not needed in Afghanistan had already been withdrawn, what's left is mostly gifted. Anything sensitive has or will be destroyed or removed. Always exceptions, of course. In terms of the ISIS threat, that's expected and the imminent possibility being reported suggests there is something happening. Hopefully a false alarm but can't take chances and a 'spectacular' on departure can't be ruled out. But why wasn't the speed expected? We've had intelligence over there for 20 years!! Things don't quite work that black and white. What would have happened is the various scenarios would have been worked through and presented to the politicians who then make a judgement with the senior intelligence bods. They wouldn't know for sure what would happen, just a best guess. Ben Wallace was saying the other day that they had tried working with other non US allies to stay but only the US had the ability to do this in terms of a framework nation. Assuming he is right and, cynicism aside, we were, then we knew to a point. The problem was the Trump deal and the Biden insistence on carrying it through. Had the US stayed in support, even in a very small way, then the Afghan army wouldn't have collapsed and the mass panic avoided. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2021 14:03:40 GMT
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Post by stuart1974 on Aug 26, 2021 14:15:34 GMT
The Italian Air Force reported shots being fired at one of their aircrafts a bit earlier. Squeaky bum time, hope they get out safely. Edit: "However, Italian sources have told Reuters news agency that it is now believed these shots were fired to disperse the crowd at Kabul airport rather than directly at the aircraft." |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2021 14:25:43 GMT
apparently an isis-k suicide attack at one of the airport gates at 3pm (UK time)
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Post by stuart1974 on Aug 26, 2021 15:00:20 GMT
apparently an isis-k suicide attack at one of the airport gates at 3pm (UK time) Not good, is it. Reports of 13 fatalities and a second explosion. RIP. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Aug 26, 2021 19:50:14 GMT
12 US servicemen and 60 Afghans killed, over 140 wounded.
Not good.
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Post by supergas on Aug 27, 2021 10:21:31 GMT
No, that's not how polls work. Firstly they would never use that small a sample but also they don't just ask the primary question and scale the answers up to the wider group....they'd know/ask the demographics of the specific people they are polling and know the demographics of the wider group they are sampling. It's incredibly scientific, regularly updated and it turns out to usually be pretty accurate.... agree in a scientific kind of way, but polls can easily be manipulated? what if poll results can influence peoples future decisions? they would be a very powerful tool. It becomes tricky because there is a rigorous scientific method behind polling that normally produces incredibly accurate results. And all reputable companies have named statisticians working for them who wouldn't allow any manipulation of the figures. How the relevant parties/media interpret the results though is much easier to manipulate. They are really bad (good?) at taking polling results out of context to push whatever their particular agenda is. But that's not a failure of polling, the failure lies elsewhere |
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