|
|
Post by stuart1974 on Dec 21, 2022 12:49:53 GMT
Very much so. All this for non existent nazis, non existent secret bio labs, non existent Nato membership...... Not sure how this plays out now, do we redouble support hoping Ukraine force a withdrawal? I can't see the total reoccupation including Crimea nor a voluntary withdrawal back to pre invasion lines and definitely not pre 2014. Putin could be overthrown but no certainty of someone better and every chance they would be worse. "General Winter" has yet to appear, that will cause a lot more suffering. Next spring/summer could well be decisive. We have to carry on supporting,he can't be allowed to win or be seen to have won,if he goes back to pre Feb he will just rearm and have another go in a few years time. Perhaps the answer is to force him back to pre Feb lines,maintain the embargo,starve him of the ability to resupply then hope for a better leader when he's gone to negotiate with. Challenges I see are: Will the Ukrainians buy that? Will the West get fatigue and crumble? Will the Russian people but it as there are many who believe that it's all the West's fault. There will have to be a rapprochement or we will be reliving this for decades. Biggest challenge for us in the West, and Putin's most likely get out clause, will be domestic and political fatigue. A disunited West with sanctions softening will give the Kremlin a reason to carry on. That's been its modus operandi since Putin first came into power, one that some of us could see a while back although plenty want to do deals or make excuses for him. As you alluded to on the other thread and we've mentioned before, it's the 1930s again. |
|
|
|
Post by trevorgas on Dec 21, 2022 14:26:50 GMT
We have to carry on supporting,he can't be allowed to win or be seen to have won,if he goes back to pre Feb he will just rearm and have another go in a few years time. Perhaps the answer is to force him back to pre Feb lines,maintain the embargo,starve him of the ability to resupply then hope for a better leader when he's gone to negotiate with. Challenges I see are: Will the Ukrainians buy that? Will the West get fatigue and crumble? Will the Russian people but it as there are many who believe that it's all the West's fault. There will have to be a rapprochement or we will be reliving this for decades. Biggest challenge for us in the West, and Putin's most likely get out clause, will be domestic and political fatigue. A disunited West with sanctions softening will give the Kremlin a reason to carry on. That's been its modus operandi since Putin first came into power, one that some of us could see a while back although plenty want to do deals or make excuses for him. As you alluded to on the other thread and we've mentioned before, it's the 1930s again. Yep he's ok playing the long game as he wants to go down in history as a second Peter the Great,what he fails to understand was that Peter was very much bought into the west culture of the day having spent a lot of time in London and his expansion was at the expense of the Baltic States plus the what is now known as Europe's eastern flank. I agree with you the west historically doesn't have long-term resolve to deal with issues that now confront us,if they start rowing back we will be back her in 5-10 years time |
|
|
|
Post by stuart1974 on Dec 27, 2022 18:53:23 GMT
Another dangerous balcony. 🤔
"Russian lawmaker Pavel Antov and Russian citizen Vladimir Bidenov died in unusual circumstances in a hotel in Odisha, India.
Mr Antov had recently criticised Russian President Vladimir Putin for the war in Ukraine but soon retracted it.
He died after falling from the third floor of his hotel on 24 December.
Mr Bidenov was found lying unconscious in his room on 22 December and was declared dead by doctors at the district hospital.
Now, Olexander Scherba, a Ukrainian diplomat who worked as ambassador of Ukraine to Austria in 2014–2021, has commented on the incident and said Russia's consul general in Calcutta has stated the police see nothing suspicious about Mr Antov's death."
In the meantime keep an eye on Serbia and Kosovo, things simmering there probably helped by Moscow.
While we are at it, the former Russian PM has gone all Nostradamus:
"In a Twitter thread, the Vladimir Putin ally predicted a "Fourth Reich" - a hypothetical Reich synonymous with the resurgence of Nazism - would be created next year and said a war would break out between France and the Fourth Reich.
He also claimed there would be a civil war in the US, with California and Texas becoming independent states as a result.
Mr Medvedev also said that Mr Musk would "win the presidential election in a number of states" and the UK would re-join the EU.
Also among the predictions were that Poland and Hungary would occupy western regions of Ukraine."
|
|
|
|
Post by trevorgas on Dec 28, 2022 11:37:19 GMT
Another dangerous balcony. 🤔 "Russian lawmaker Pavel Antov and Russian citizen Vladimir Bidenov died in unusual circumstances in a hotel in Odisha, India. Mr Antov had recently criticised Russian President Vladimir Putin for the war in Ukraine but soon retracted it. He died after falling from the third floor of his hotel on 24 December. Mr Bidenov was found lying unconscious in his room on 22 December and was declared dead by doctors at the district hospital. Now, Olexander Scherba, a Ukrainian diplomat who worked as ambassador of Ukraine to Austria in 2014–2021, has commented on the incident and said Russia's consul general in Calcutta has stated the police see nothing suspicious about Mr Antov's death." In the meantime keep an eye on Serbia and Kosovo, things simmering there probably helped by Moscow. While we are at it, the former Russian PM has gone all Nostradamus: "In a Twitter thread, the Vladimir Putin ally predicted a "Fourth Reich" - a hypothetical Reich synonymous with the resurgence of Nazism - would be created next year and said a war would break out between France and the Fourth Reich. He also claimed there would be a civil war in the US, with California and Texas becoming independent states as a result. Mr Medvedev also said that Mr Musk would "win the presidential election in a number of states" and the UK would re-join the EU. Also among the predictions were that Poland and Hungary would occupy western regions of Ukraine." Nothing suspicious haha,it's like a game of cluedo,what's the issue that links all the deaths,they have all recently criticised the War. Interesting piece on the BBC about the possible trajectory or outcomes of the war next year. |
|
|
|
Post by stuart1974 on Dec 29, 2022 16:12:44 GMT
Have to smile.
|
|
yattongas
Forum Legend
Posts: 15,491 
Member is Online
|
Post by yattongas on Dec 29, 2022 16:34:25 GMT
I had a Brexit benefits advent calendar this time , opened every window and there was bugger all in there ! |
|
|
|
Post by stuart1974 on Jan 9, 2023 17:11:34 GMT
The journalist tends to get a bit carried away sometimes imo, however this could be significant in that it puts pressure on Germany to allow other countries to supply German manufactured Leopard 2 tanks that at the moment Berlin can prevent due to IP ownership. Numbers, training, munitions and support would tend to mean ours is more symbolic. "Discussions have been taking place "for a few weeks" about delivering a number of the British Army's Challenger 2 main battle tank to the Ukrainian armed forces, a Western source with knowledge of the conversations said." news.sky.com/story/uk-considering-supplying-ukraine-with-challenger-2-tanks-to-fight-russian-forces-12783107 |
|
|
|
Post by stuart1974 on Jan 15, 2023 23:44:14 GMT
Pyrrhic victory for Russia over the past few days, the cost was sizeable according to some reports and not much of the town left.
The rumour of tanks confirmed. It's an interesting one;
the numbers are modest at the moment so really a token gesture;
probably aimed to get Germany to agree transfers of their German built tanks and;
is unique with its systems so logistically will be difficult to sustain.
The other item being donated is an artillery piece called AS90. It's pretty obsolete now and in desperate need of upgrading or replacing. What we're sending is pretty much what is still functioning, meaning we won't have anything left of use.
The British Army isn't in a great place at the moment after poor stewardship both from within and by governments of all colours. Best we can do is support Ukraine because we'd struggle otherwise.
|
|
|
|
Post by stuart1974 on Jan 19, 2023 12:49:33 GMT
Possibly one to watch, Germany is dragging their feet over support and there is a Nato summit soon.
|
|
yattongas
Forum Legend
Posts: 15,491
Member is Online
|
Post by yattongas on Jan 19, 2023 15:22:26 GMT
The journalist tends to get a bit carried away sometimes imo, however this could be significant in that it puts pressure on Germany to allow other countries to supply German manufactured Leopard 2 tanks that at the moment Berlin can prevent due to IP ownership. Numbers, training, munitions and support would tend to mean ours is more symbolic. "Discussions have been taking place "for a few weeks" about delivering a number of the British Army's Challenger 2 main battle tank to the Ukrainian armed forces, a Western source with knowledge of the conversations said." news.sky.com/story/uk-considering-supplying-ukraine-with-challenger-2-tanks-to-fight-russian-forces-12783107Surprised to learn we (uk) have only got 227 tanks . USA has about 8725 and the Ruskies 22,000 😮 |
|
|
|
Post by trevorgas on Jan 19, 2023 15:50:38 GMT
The journalist tends to get a bit carried away sometimes imo, however this could be significant in that it puts pressure on Germany to allow other countries to supply German manufactured Leopard 2 tanks that at the moment Berlin can prevent due to IP ownership. Numbers, training, munitions and support would tend to mean ours is more symbolic. "Discussions have been taking place "for a few weeks" about delivering a number of the British Army's Challenger 2 main battle tank to the Ukrainian armed forces, a Western source with knowledge of the conversations said." news.sky.com/story/uk-considering-supplying-ukraine-with-challenger-2-tanks-to-fight-russian-forces-12783107Surprised to learn we (uk) have only got 227 tanks . USA has about 8725 and the Ruskies 22,000 😮 When an individual can take a tank out at 2km from a shoulder launched weapon after barely a few days training then I think the tank has had its day . We're in a transition period a bit like the mighty battleships that became vulnerable in WW2 once the Japanese had taken out the Prince of Wales and Repulse. |
|
yattongas
Forum Legend
Posts: 15,491
Member is Online
|
Post by yattongas on Jan 19, 2023 15:58:44 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by trevorgas on Jan 19, 2023 16:08:46 GMT
God forbid😮😮 However,it's never been NATO strategic plan to fight large armoured battles in Europe as we have been massively outgunned since the Cold War,it was always about delay . |
|
yattongas
Forum Legend
Posts: 15,491
Member is Online
|
Post by yattongas on Jan 19, 2023 16:12:08 GMT
God forbid😮😮 However,it's never been NATO strategic plan to fight large armoured battles in Europe as we have been massively outgunned since the Cold War,it was always about delay . I’m not a military nerd or know much about it if I’m honest so I’ll take your word for it 😃 |
|
|
|
Post by trevorgas on Jan 19, 2023 16:16:38 GMT
God forbid😮😮 However,it's never been NATO strategic plan to fight large armoured battles in Europe as we have been massively outgunned since the Cold War,it was always about delay . I’m not a military nerd or know much about it if I’m honest so I’ll take your word for it 😃 I am bit of a history buff,but more relevant I have a very good friend who was a Major in Army intelligence during the 70s/80s ,he is very cagey but some of his insights into NATO war games/scenario planning are both fascinating and scary in equal measure!! |
|
|
|
Post by stuart1974 on Jan 19, 2023 18:36:44 GMT
I’m not a military nerd or know much about it if I’m honest so I’ll take your word for it 😃 I am bit of a history buff,but more relevant I have a very good friend who was a Major in Army intelligence during the 70s/80s ,he is very cagey but some of his insights into NATO war games/scenario planning are both fascinating and scary in equal measure!! Over 100,000 British soldiers and 500 main battle tanks were lined up to fight the 3rd Soviet Army in Germany. They were merely a delaying force, jokingly called a speed bump, to buy the politicians time. War gaming usually meant launching Polaris within 3-4 days. |
|
|
|
Post by stuart1974 on Jan 19, 2023 18:44:32 GMT
Surprised to learn we (uk) have only got 227 tanks . USA has about 8725 and the Ruskies 22,000 😮 When an individual can take a tank out at 2km from a shoulder launched weapon after barely a few days training then I think the tank has had its day . We're in a transition period a bit like the mighty battleships that became vulnerable in WW2 once the Japanese had taken out the Prince of Wales and Repulse. There are counter measures available such as APS and tactics will also play a major part, the death of the tank has long been written but is not upon us yet. Yatton - we have 227 officially and possibly a few more in storage, but only 148 will be modernised. During the 80s we had nearly 1,000 including those held in reserve. One of the main reasons the US has so many is to maintain jobs. We bought only what we wanted and then lost the ability to design and manufacture our own, that's why we had to get the Germans to help with the current modernisation plan. |
|
|
|
Post by trevorgas on Jan 19, 2023 18:52:42 GMT
I am bit of a history buff,but more relevant I have a very good friend who was a Major in Army intelligence during the 70s/80s ,he is very cagey but some of his insights into NATO war games/scenario planning are both fascinating and scary in equal measure!! Over 100,000 British soldiers and 500 main battle tanks were lined up to fight the 3rd Soviet Army in Germany. They were merely a delaying force, jokingly called a speed bump, to buy the politicians time. War gaming usually meant launching Polaris within 3-4 days. Correct,there was a considerable amount of time/research spent identifying where on the Central European plain tactical nuclear weapons could be delivered to cause the least collateral damage. |
|
yattongas
Forum Legend
Posts: 15,491
Member is Online
|
Post by yattongas on Jan 19, 2023 19:25:36 GMT
Big battle on here to prove themselves the biggest Military nerd 😮…… who’s your money on ?
Major intelligence Trevorgas 5/4
General nuisance Stuart 6/4
Private Yatton 200/1
|
|
|
|
Post by stuart1974 on Jan 19, 2023 19:40:09 GMT
Big battle on here to prove themselves the biggest Military nerd 😮…… who’s your money on ? Major intelligence Trevorgas 5/4 General nuisance Stuart 6/4 Private Yatton 200/1 I like to think we complement each other, probably over a century of study/interest in history between us. 😘 Lulworthgas used to post on here, if he's still lurking I'd be interested in his take on recent events. |
|
