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Post by supergas on Dec 7, 2023 9:41:09 GMT
Enlarged NATO, yes. Strengthened? Not so sure... Turkey was not a big fan of either Finland or Sweden, and Croatia had issues with Sweden joining. Hungary seemed in favour but has delayed and delayed and so Sweden still hasn't become a member. Can't see them all singing Kum ba yah around the campfire on training missions, let alone coming to each other's mutual defense any time soon... ...the EU is still playing politics with this against (rather than alongside) NATO - for a long time it has wanted to become the lead in defense/military matters for member states and doesn't seem to be dropping those aims anytime soon, despite NATO's success for most of the late 20th century... The biggest issue is the politics of an enlarged NATO and an enlarged EU up against the Russian border/sphere of control...without Article 5 NATO is just a nice club where they meet up from time to time for conferences and to shoot blanks at each other, but sooner or later Russia (possibly under the guise of a mistake or another country) might test whether Article 5 would actually be invoked....if NATO blinks (and I think they might) it's basically a redundant organisation with several very nice HQs.... No, definitely strengthened, Finland and Sweden provide support to the Baltics which previously were isolated. Once Poland rearms (and even now) could match Russia in many respects. Finland have one of the largest artillery forces in Europe. I wouldn't take Orban or Erdoğan as a barometer, they are playing both sides off for political gain (Turkey are after US F16s for example). There are over 30 nations in Nato, as I said before, provided the 'big boys' turn up then it's still more than a club. Even if A5 isn't formally triggered, enough will back them. EU? No chance, never was. Hopefully we will never need to find out. But whilst I think NATO has the military strength to do what it's supposed to do, I don't think it currently has the political willpower (or the organisation) across members to punch back if it is attacked... |
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Post by stuart1974 on Dec 7, 2023 9:58:16 GMT
No, definitely strengthened, Finland and Sweden provide support to the Baltics which previously were isolated. Once Poland rearms (and even now) could match Russia in many respects. Finland have one of the largest artillery forces in Europe. I wouldn't take Orban or Erdoğan as a barometer, they are playing both sides off for political gain (Turkey are after US F16s for example). There are over 30 nations in Nato, as I said before, provided the 'big boys' turn up then it's still more than a club. Even if A5 isn't formally triggered, enough will back them. EU? No chance, never was. Hopefully we will never need to find out. But whilst I think NATO has the military strength to do what it's supposed to do, I don't think it currently has the political willpower (or the organisation) across members to punch back if it is attacked... There are plenty of Nato forces stationed across those countries with borders (we have a Battegroup in Estonia for example). They would be involved from day one which forces the hands in Washington, London, Paris, etc. Putin knows this, which is why our resolve over the past two years has been tested and largely came out well. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Dec 14, 2023 18:04:20 GMT
"European Union leaders have agreed to open membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, has said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described it as a "victory for Ukraine" and a "victory for all of Europe".
He added: "A victory that motivates, inspires, and strengthens."
It is a surprise announcement, given that Hungary has been vowing to block such a decision at a two-day meeting in Brussels."
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Post by trevorgas on Dec 14, 2023 18:35:42 GMT
"European Union leaders have agreed to open membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, has said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described it as a "victory for Ukraine" and a "victory for all of Europe". He added: "A victory that motivates, inspires, and strengthens." It is a surprise announcement, given that Hungary has been vowing to block such a decision at a two-day meeting in Brussels." The military situation in Ukraine looks like it's favourable to Russia,that's what I read in to Putin doing his annual Christmas Q&A,which he avoided last year. I'm worried that the short attention span of Western leaders is very much to Ukraine's deteriment,there is already a shortage of artillery shells and if funding is significantly delayed in the US the situation will get worse,in many respects the onset of winter may be good for Ukraine. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Dec 14, 2023 21:00:00 GMT
"European Union leaders have agreed to open membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, has said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described it as a "victory for Ukraine" and a "victory for all of Europe". He added: "A victory that motivates, inspires, and strengthens." It is a surprise announcement, given that Hungary has been vowing to block such a decision at a two-day meeting in Brussels." The military situation in Ukraine looks like it's favourable to Russia,that's what I read in to Putin doing his annual Christmas Q&A,which he avoided last year. I'm worried that the short attention span of Western leaders is very much to Ukraine's deteriment,there is already a shortage of artillery shells and if funding is significantly delayed in the US the situation will get worse,in many respects the onset of winter may be good for Ukraine. As long as we are backing them, they should prevail. UK wise I can't see that waning in the medium term. The biggest obstacle would be a Trump victory next year. That means the US will be on hand for another 14 months at least. I read the other day that BAe Systems are ramping up artillery shell production from 16,000 per month to 128,000 per month. We are also rebuilding more guided missile launchers, making us the largest owner of that system in Europe. Plenty to help Ukraine if needed. |
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Post by trevorgas on Dec 14, 2023 22:35:59 GMT
The military situation in Ukraine looks like it's favourable to Russia,that's what I read in to Putin doing his annual Christmas Q&A,which he avoided last year. I'm worried that the short attention span of Western leaders is very much to Ukraine's deteriment,there is already a shortage of artillery shells and if funding is significantly delayed in the US the situation will get worse,in many respects the onset of winter may be good for Ukraine. As long as we are backing them, they should prevail. UK wise I can't see that waning in the medium term. The biggest obstacle would be a Trump victory next year. That means the US will be on hand for another 14 months at least. I read the other day that BAe Systems are ramping up artillery shell production from 16,000 per month to 128,000 per month. We are also rebuilding more guided missile launchers, making us the largest owner of that system in Europe. Plenty to help Ukraine if needed. I do hope so |
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Post by stuart1974 on Dec 15, 2023 0:27:36 GMT
Fair play to Olaf:
"According to @politico, it was Germany's Olaf Scholz who came up with the solution to bypass Orban's idiotic stance against Ukraine.
During the negotiations, Scholz told Orbán that he could leave the room so other leaders could take an unanimous decision."
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Post by supergas on Dec 16, 2023 6:22:19 GMT
Fair play to Olaf: "According to @politico, it was Germany's Olaf Scholz who came up with the solution to bypass Orban's idiotic stance against Ukraine. During the negotiations, Scholz told Orbán that he could leave the room so other leaders could take an unanimous decision." Short term win for the EU and Ukraine, but Orban is playing a longer game - he's just got the EU to release 10 billion euros they were with-holding from Hungary for "...breaches of the principle of the rule of law..." and is going after a further 20bn ahead of elections in early 2024... Then he went straight on national media in Hungary and told them he could veto Ukraine's ascension at any point - and he probably will at some point, maybe as soon as Hungary takes over the EU's rotating presidency for the second half of 2024... |
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Post by trevorgas on Dec 16, 2023 7:56:09 GMT
Fair play to Olaf: "According to @politico, it was Germany's Olaf Scholz who came up with the solution to bypass Orban's idiotic stance against Ukraine. During the negotiations, Scholz told Orbán that he could leave the room so other leaders could take an unanimous decision." Short term win for the EU and Ukraine, but Orban is playing a longer game - he's just got the EU to release 10 billion euros they were with-holding from Hungary for "...breaches of the principle of the rule of law..." and is going after a further 20bn ahead of elections in early 2024... Then he went straight on national media in Hungary and told them he could veto Ukraine's ascension at any point - and he probably will at some point, maybe as soon as Hungary takes over the EU's rotating presidency for the second half of 2024... He will be a thorn in the side of the EU,does anyone know what his underlying beef is with Ukraine other than he's a mate of Putin's? |
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Post by supergas on Dec 16, 2023 9:06:54 GMT
Short term win for the EU and Ukraine, but Orban is playing a longer game - he's just got the EU to release 10 billion euros they were with-holding from Hungary for "...breaches of the principle of the rule of law..." and is going after a further 20bn ahead of elections in early 2024... Then he went straight on national media in Hungary and told them he could veto Ukraine's ascension at any point - and he probably will at some point, maybe as soon as Hungary takes over the EU's rotating presidency for the second half of 2024... He will be a thorn in the side of the EU,does anyone know what his underlying beef is with Ukraine other than he's a mate of Putin's? ...as far as I can see it's all about his politics at home rather than EU/NATO unity. He thinks Hungary benefits from various decisions he's made including trying to maintain ties with Russia, and he thinks they will benefit in the future by keeping Ukraine as a neutral "buffer-zone" between the EU/NATO and Russia. Sounds like there may also be some personal history between him and Zelenskyy but I don't know if that's pre or post the war... |
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Post by stuart1974 on Dec 24, 2023 1:05:27 GMT
Hope nobody fell for these: "A website founded by a former US Marine who now lives in Russia has fuelled a rumour that Volodymyr Zelensky purchased two luxury yachts with American aid money. Despite the false claim, the disinformation plot was successful. It took off online and was echoed by members of the US Congress making crucial decisions about military spending. It was an incredible assertion - using two advisers as proxies, Mr Zelensky paid $75m (£59m) for two yachts. But not only has the Ukrainian government flatly denied the story, the two ships in question have not even been sold. Despite being false, the story reached members of the US Congress, where leaders say any decision on further aid to Ukraine will be delayed until next year. Since moving to Russia he has reinvented himself as a journalist covering the invasion of Ukraine, and has spread a number of false and baseless claims - for example that Russia was attempting to destroy biological weapons labs." "The woman showed a receipt dated 22 September, with Mrs Zelensky's name on it and a bill for $1.1m for a bracelet, earrings and a necklace. Facial recognition tools threw up a close match between the woman in the video and photos from social media profiles of a woman who lives in St Petersburg, Russia. When we looked at the pictures of the woman it appeared to be the same person as the one in the YouTube video." "The articles falsely alleged that Prince Andrew made a secret visit to Ukraine, that Ukraine provided weapons to Hamas, that an American non-profit organisation harvested organs in Ukraine and that Zelensky's administration allowed Western companies to use Ukrainian farmland for disposal of toxic waste. Stories on DC Weekly were often published within days after allegations first appeared on YouTube. In addition to DC Weekly, some of the allegations - including those about Cartier jewellery and yachts - also appeared on several pro-Kremlin English-language websites as well as legitimate news websites in Africa that accept "sponsored" (paid-for) content." www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67766964.amp |
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Post by stuart1974 on Dec 24, 2023 1:09:31 GMT
Ukraine celebrating Christmas on 25 December this year, another step away from Moscow and closer to Europe.
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Post by stuart1974 on Dec 26, 2023 17:52:26 GMT
Another Black Sea Fleet ship hit, Navalny found in an Arctic prison after disappearing recently, Sadiq Khan agreeing eventually to impounded cars being sent, rumour F16s could arrive in the near future, Russia thought to be retaking a town in the east.
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Post by trevorgas on Dec 26, 2023 17:56:43 GMT
Another Black Sea Fleet ship hit, Navalny found in an Arctic prison after disappearing recently, Sadiq Khan agreeing eventually to impounded cars being sent, rumour F16s could arrive in the near future, Russia thought to be retaking a town in the east. I do hope so ,worries me greatly that we have taken our eyes of Ukraine,Putin a master of the waiting game ,the West cannot afford for him to win. Really detest politicians in the US playing politics whilst Ukrainians die potentially protecting all of us. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Dec 26, 2023 18:09:51 GMT
Another Black Sea Fleet ship hit, Navalny found in an Arctic prison after disappearing recently, Sadiq Khan agreeing eventually to impounded cars being sent, rumour F16s could arrive in the near future, Russia thought to be retaking a town in the east. I do hope so ,worries me greatly that we have taken our eyes of Ukraine,Putin a master of the waiting game ,the West cannot afford for him to win. Really detest politicians in the US playing politics whilst Ukrainians die potentially protecting all of us. We, as in Europe, really need to ensure everyone pulls together, including keeping the US engaged. Can't afford for Putin to regain the initiative, on the battlefield or on social media. |
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Post by trevorgas on Dec 26, 2023 21:58:52 GMT
I do hope so ,worries me greatly that we have taken our eyes of Ukraine,Putin a master of the waiting game ,the West cannot afford for him to win. Really detest politicians in the US playing politics whilst Ukrainians die potentially protecting all of us. We, as in Europe, really need to ensure everyone pulls together, including keeping the US engaged. Can't afford for Putin to regain the initiative, on the battlefield or on social media. Absolutely right Stuart |
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Post by stuart1974 on Jan 2, 2024 9:45:37 GMT
Russia has been stockpiling munitions over recent weeks and possibly months, throwing a lot at Ukraine this morning.
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Post by trevorgas on Jan 2, 2024 12:21:09 GMT
Russia has been stockpiling munitions over recent weeks and possibly months, throwing a lot at Ukraine this morning. Yep it's worrying,being supplied by Iran and North Korea,we in the West appear to have lost interest, massive concern. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Jan 2, 2024 13:12:46 GMT
Russia has been stockpiling munitions over recent weeks and possibly months, throwing a lot at Ukraine this morning. Yep it's worrying,being supplied by Iran and North Korea,we in the West appear to have lost interest, massive concern. Iran seems to have their fingers in a few pies at the moment. On a related note, it looks like the Ukrainian refugees have mostly settled well, one survey suggests fewer than a third intend to return. "Almost two years since Russia invaded, government figures show about 195,000 Ukrainians have fled to the UK under visa schemes. With one survey suggesting fewer than a third will return, the BBC has spoken to refugees who plan to stay in the UK long-term." www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-birmingham-67759870.amp"According to the latest government data, 139,200 Ukrainians have been granted visas to come to the UK under the Homes For Ukraine scheme since it opened in March 2022. An Office for National Statistics snapshot survey between 10 and 21 August 2023 of 14,851 adults involved with the hosting scheme found that about half were currently hosting. About half of those said they intended to host for 18 months or more, with two-thirds citing the fact that they had built a strong relationship with their Ukrainian guests as the reason. While the trauma of the war that destroyed her home continues to haunt Korol, she says that the support she has received in the UK from Paul and her family has changed everything. “In Ukraine I lost my house and lost my life. But sometimes you have to lose everything to find so much. Now I have found a new family in a new country.” " www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/31/an-incredible-miracle-ukrainian-families-find-solace-in-british-homes |
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Post by stuart1974 on Jan 12, 2024 12:33:56 GMT
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