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Post by torontogaz2 on Nov 26, 2023 17:32:05 GMT
The goal was a terrible sequence of events. Brown equally culpable by giving Grant a hospital pass and then just standing still and waving his arms around Browns been pretty useless for us bar one game I think it was Port Vale at home I can’t remember him being anything other than poor. Seems like another Kyle Bennet to me. Technically decent but no movement , doesn’t work hard a and with him and Collins playing the same way they both need to be benched. We need to start Thomas and Vale together not one or the other and move the ball quickly with through balls , Martin will find them with flick ons and lay offs and Finley , Ward and Evans etc with through balls. But we don’t play that way which is why we’re mid table. When looking at his career stats, last year was a blip. |
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Post by Topper Gas on Nov 26, 2023 17:35:43 GMT
Looking at the xG stats right now and our expected goals per game is 1.35 a game. And we score 1.35 goals a game. So we’re not missing loads of chances we’re just not creating lots of very good scoring opportunities and that’s why we’re not scoring many goals. I don’t base my opinions on Rovers on stats I base them on what I see because I’ve seen every game this season . But in this instance the stats do back up what I see, we’re a side who like to knock it about at the back and midfield but by the time we get in to the final third we really struggle because we’re too slow with the ball and lack the movement tempo and creativity to be a top 6 side. I really fail to see how signing JCH or a similar type of striker will solve that other than he might provide us with a better goals to games ratio than Martin. Derby had one shot on target yesterday, how come they are a top 6 if they are not creating loads of chances? As far as JCH I can't recall we had a great deal of movement upfront when he was last with us. Our biggest issue seems to be conceding soft goals, if we're conceding two goals away from home regularly the best we're ever going to get is a 2-2 draw at a top 6 side. |
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Post by gasheadontour on Nov 26, 2023 17:36:01 GMT
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Post by Gastafari on Nov 26, 2023 17:38:59 GMT
Looking at the xG stats right now and our expected goals per game is 1.35 a game. And we score 1.35 goals a game. So we’re not missing loads of chances we’re just not creating lots of very good scoring opportunities and that’s why we’re not scoring many goals. I don’t base my opinions on Rovers on stats I base them on what I see because I’ve seen every game this season . But in this instance the stats do back up what I see, we’re a side who like to knock it about at the back and midfield but by the time we get in to the final third we really struggle because we’re too slow with the ball and lack the movement tempo and creativity to be a top 6 side. I really fail to see how signing JCH or a similar type of striker will solve that other than he might provide us with a better goals to games ratio than Martin. I judge it on what I see as well. Like I mentioned before we could and should of scored 3 at Pompey on the opening day. We should of put Barnsley to bed, 4 or 5-1 would of been a fair reflection of the game. We should of had 3 before Oxford took the lead against us. We created more than Derby yesterday etc. So again creating the chances isn't the issue, it's putting the ball in the back of the net that is the big issue imo. A proper centre forward would of given us at least another 10-11 points on the board from those games mentioned. |
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Post by socrates on Nov 26, 2023 17:39:27 GMT
Looking at the xG stats right now and our expected goals per game is 1.35 a game. And we score 1.35 goals a game. So we’re not missing loads of chances we’re just not creating lots of very good scoring opportunities and that’s why we’re not scoring many goals. I don’t base my opinions on Rovers on stats I base them on what I see because I’ve seen every game this season . But in this instance the stats do back up what I see, we’re a side who like to knock it about at the back and midfield but by the time we get in to the final third we really struggle because we’re too slow with the ball and lack the movement tempo and creativity to be a top 6 side. I really fail to see how signing JCH or a similar type of striker will solve that other than he might provide us with a better goals to games ratio than Martin. Derby had one shot on target yesterday, how come they are a top 6 if they are not creating loads of chances? As far as JCH I can't recall we had a great deal of movement upfront when he was last with us. Our biggest issue seems to be conceding soft goals, if we're conceding two goals away from home regularly the best we're ever going to get is a 2-2 draw at a top 6 side. They looked far more dangerous as an attacking threat than we did in my opinion. Perhaps it’s the chances you create not how many half chances ? Also they had more than one shot on target yesterday. |
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Post by Topper Gas on Nov 26, 2023 18:13:55 GMT
Given JCH has spent most of the season on the bench I'm not sure what you're trying to prove with those stats? We all know if JCH is still reasonably fit and up for the challenge then he'll score 20+ goals for us over a full season. |
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Post by socrates on Nov 26, 2023 20:10:57 GMT
Looking at the xG stats right now and our expected goals per game is 1.35 a game. And we score 1.35 goals a game. So we’re not missing loads of chances we’re just not creating lots of very good scoring opportunities and that’s why we’re not scoring many goals. I don’t base my opinions on Rovers on stats I base them on what I see because I’ve seen every game this season . But in this instance the stats do back up what I see, we’re a side who like to knock it about at the back and midfield but by the time we get in to the final third we really struggle because we’re too slow with the ball and lack the movement tempo and creativity to be a top 6 side. I really fail to see how signing JCH or a similar type of striker will solve that other than he might provide us with a better goals to games ratio than Martin. I judge it on what I see as well. Like I mentioned before we could and should of scored 3 at Pompey on the opening day. We should of put Barnsley to bed, 4 or 5-1 would of been a fair reflection of the game. We should of had 3 before Oxford took the lead against us. We created more than Derby yesterday etc. So again creating the chances isn't the issue, it's putting the ball in the back of the net that is the big issue imo. A proper centre forward would of given us at least another 10-11 points on the board from those games mentioned. Our XGoals puts us 14th in the Expected goals table. We are 11th in the league. Basically that means we’ve created the 14th most chances out of the 24 sides in league 1. |
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Post by mftc on Nov 26, 2023 20:30:25 GMT
It doesn't really matter about possession if we do not get people in the box, or pass the ball out wide when 25 yards out.
There is a simple equation, if you don't shoot,you don't score.
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pirate
Forum Legend
Posts: 19,466 
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Post by pirate on Nov 26, 2023 20:32:07 GMT
I judge it on what I see as well. Like I mentioned before we could and should of scored 3 at Pompey on the opening day. We should of put Barnsley to bed, 4 or 5-1 would of been a fair reflection of the game. We should of had 3 before Oxford took the lead against us. We created more than Derby yesterday etc. So again creating the chances isn't the issue, it's putting the ball in the back of the net that is the big issue imo. A proper centre forward would of given us at least another 10-11 points on the board from those games mentioned. Our XGoals puts us 14th in the Expected goals table. We are 11th in the league. Basically that means we’ve created the 14th most chances out of the 24 sides in league 1. Interestingly we are 6th for Big Chances Created and then 9th for Big Chances Missed, with Aaron Collins 8th in the player list for Big Chances Missed. |
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Post by gasheadontour on Nov 26, 2023 21:42:59 GMT
Given JCH has spent most of the season on the bench I'm not sure what you're trying to prove with those stats? We all know if JCH is still reasonably fit and up for the challenge then he'll score 20+ goals for us over a full season. so far this season both players have scored the same number of goals in League 1. Martin a goal per 161 mins. JCH a goal per 217 mins. |
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Post by gasify on Nov 27, 2023 6:51:59 GMT
Looking at the xG stats right now and our expected goals per game is 1.35 a game. And we score 1.35 goals a game. So we’re not missing loads of chances we’re just not creating lots of very good scoring opportunities and that’s why we’re not scoring many goals. I don’t base my opinions on Rovers on stats I base them on what I see because I’ve seen every game this season . But in this instance the stats do back up what I see, we’re a side who like to knock it about at the back and midfield but by the time we get in to the final third we really struggle because we’re too slow with the ball and lack the movement tempo and creativity to be a top 6 side. I really fail to see how signing JCH or a similar type of striker will solve that other than he might provide us with a better goals to games ratio than Martin. Looking at the way xG is defined, I'm not sure it it is saying that: "xG is calculated using a serious deep dive into the past. To measure the likelihood of shots being converted into actual goals, xG uses historical information from thousands of shots with similar characteristics to estimate how likely a goal is on a scale between 0 and 1. 0 would mean that on average, if 10 shots with similar characteristics had been taken in the past, none of them had gone in, whereas 1 would reflect that all of those 10 shots had gone in." The xG hides the chances created? We could be creating 100 chances and just missing loads or we could be creating a small number of chances and taking more. I'm not sure if this stat is relevant in the "what is wrong debate". It could still be the quality of strikers, it could be the quality of chances created. Let's improve both? 😁 |
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pirate
Forum Legend
Posts: 19,466
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Post by pirate on Nov 27, 2023 7:53:03 GMT
Looking at the xG stats right now and our expected goals per game is 1.35 a game. And we score 1.35 goals a game. So we’re not missing loads of chances we’re just not creating lots of very good scoring opportunities and that’s why we’re not scoring many goals. I don’t base my opinions on Rovers on stats I base them on what I see because I’ve seen every game this season . But in this instance the stats do back up what I see, we’re a side who like to knock it about at the back and midfield but by the time we get in to the final third we really struggle because we’re too slow with the ball and lack the movement tempo and creativity to be a top 6 side. I really fail to see how signing JCH or a similar type of striker will solve that other than he might provide us with a better goals to games ratio than Martin. Looking at the way xG is defined, I'm not sure it it is saying that: "xG is calculated using a serious deep dive into the past. To measure the likelihood of shots being converted into actual goals, xG uses historical information from thousands of shots with similar characteristics to estimate how likely a goal is on a scale between 0 and 1. 0 would mean that on average, if 10 shots with similar characteristics had been taken in the past, none of them had gone in, whereas 1 would reflect that all of those 10 shots had gone in." The xG hides the chances created? We could be creating 100 chances and just missing loads or we could be creating a small number of chances and taking more. I'm not sure if this stat is relevant in the "what is wrong debate". It could still be the quality of strikers, it could be the quality of chances created. Let's improve both? 😁 Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) is interesting. This model builds upon the original xG model by crediting on-target shots based on a combination of their underlying chance quality (xG) and the quality of their execution. xG measures the quality of the chances that a side makes and xGOT builds on this to tells us what a team managed to do with these chances. Essentially, xG is a pre-shot model while xGOT is a post-shot model. We have one player Aaron Collins (19th) in the top 50 xGOT player table, compared to a club in the playoffs like Peterborough who have six players in the top 50. |
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Post by gasify on Nov 27, 2023 12:24:24 GMT
Looking at the way xG is defined, I'm not sure it it is saying that: "xG is calculated using a serious deep dive into the past. To measure the likelihood of shots being converted into actual goals, xG uses historical information from thousands of shots with similar characteristics to estimate how likely a goal is on a scale between 0 and 1. 0 would mean that on average, if 10 shots with similar characteristics had been taken in the past, none of them had gone in, whereas 1 would reflect that all of those 10 shots had gone in." The xG hides the chances created? We could be creating 100 chances and just missing loads or we could be creating a small number of chances and taking more. I'm not sure if this stat is relevant in the "what is wrong debate". It could still be the quality of strikers, it could be the quality of chances created. Let's improve both? 😁 Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) is interesting. This model builds upon the original xG model by crediting on-target shots based on a combination of their underlying chance quality (xG) and the quality of their execution. xG measures the quality of the chances that a side makes and xGOT builds on this to tells us what a team managed to do with these chances. Essentially, xG is a pre-shot model while xGOT is a post-shot model. We have one player Aaron Collins (19th) in the top 50 xGOT player table, compared to a club in the playoffs like Peterborough who have six players in the top 50. That sounds like the new age funky stat to go with. Basically, we can't hit a barn door with a banjo... |
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