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Post by Gassy on Dec 18, 2020 12:10:38 GMT
My god, even when you've been proven completely wrong - you can't even get close to admitting you might be wrong. It's just excuse after excuse. Concede a point man. I haven't been proven completely wrong though. You're sharing links that shows that Sweden has fewer deaths to the last 10 years, trying to make a point that Covid isn't bad at all. If you actually checked the statistics you'd see that its already higher than 2019. On top of that, you're forgetting Covid started in March and deaths this year in Sweden are on course to be around 94k - higher than any of those graphs. If you did a March-March comparison you'd be getting roughly 120k deaths, a 34% increase in deaths on 2019. And how do you admit that the statistics you've shared are wrong and the point you've made is wrong? "So it might end up being slightly higher than a couple of years ago, but....". You can't even admit that it is already higher. You can't acknowledge any of the points. Instead, you try to throw sand to distract and change the conversation to care homes, cancer screening, GP appointments and the economy. And then, just to put the cherry on top. You're now saying that, "As I said on here recently, isolate people with symptoms and protect the vulnerable and at risk groups." But not only yesterday you said: That is what the government are doing, locking them away. They should be told the risks and allowed to live their lives as they wish. Maybe they don't want to be locked down and would rather spend time with friends and family and enjoying themselves in the time they have left. As I said the other day, you lack consistency in your arguments and will change the goalposts at any point to try make your point, which in this case on Sweden - is wrong. Concede a point and move on man.
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Post by trevorgas on Dec 18, 2020 12:14:09 GMT
Tbf I think the statistic is correct, but as OB says - its incomplete. A quick google already shows the deaths are now higher than 2019 and on course to be the highest the bar shows - most likely around the 94k mark. And thats if you consider the virus only really started in March in Europe. So if you were to add 3 months worth of data you'd be probably around the 120k mark. March-March would be an interesting (and sad) comparison. But none of this sadly backs up the point Pirate is trying to make. Quite the opposite. Just to add to "the virus isn't that deadly" debate. Germany who were trumpeted during the first wave as being brilliant at controlling the virus yesterday had 33k of cases and over 800 deaths so if it ain't deadly then Public Health over there has gone rapidly tits up.
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Post by Gassy on Dec 18, 2020 12:19:06 GMT
Tbf I think the statistic is correct, but as OB says - its incomplete. A quick google already shows the deaths are now higher than 2019 and on course to be the highest the bar shows - most likely around the 94k mark. And thats if you consider the virus only really started in March in Europe. So if you were to add 3 months worth of data you'd be probably around the 120k mark. March-March would be an interesting (and sad) comparison. But none of this sadly backs up the point Pirate is trying to make. Quite the opposite. Just to add to "the virus isn't that deadly" debate. Germany who were trumpeted during the first wave as being brilliant at controlling the virus yesterday had 33k of cases and over 800 deaths so if it ain't deadly then Public Health over there has gone rapidly tits up. I haven't looked at country cases by day in a while, I knew it was high but didn't realise it was so bad! Even the mortality of Covid is near impossible to predict so far, because what do you judge it on? Germany has the most intensive care beds and ventilators, so naturally it would be lower. Other countries will have much lower and mortality will be much higher. On top of that, since the summer we've introduced medicines that can save lives - some repurposed medicines are said to drop death rates of those in intensive care by 50% (Can't remember the exact figure, but it's around that number). As each day goes on we learn more about the virus and how to deal with it and bring in novel therapies & treatments. So what do you base it on?
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Post by yattongas on Dec 18, 2020 12:26:04 GMT
Today’s radio show on LBC James OBrein spent the first 2 hrs tackling exactly the nonsense that pirate ( Wes) posts on here . It was completely and utterly shown up to be the absolute dangerous nonsense it is . Go have a listen pirate ...
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Post by stuart1974 on Dec 18, 2020 12:40:10 GMT
Question to those who understand better than me, if we 'allow' the virus to spread only to the less vulnerable people, does the resulting exponential increase in the virus reproduction rate increase the chances of a significant mutation above that we already have?
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pirate
Forum Legend
Posts: 19,461
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Post by pirate on Dec 18, 2020 12:43:42 GMT
I haven't been proven completely wrong though. You're sharing links that shows that Sweden has fewer deaths to the last 10 years, trying to make a point that Covid isn't bad at all. If you actually checked the statistics you'd see that its already higher than 2019. On top of that, you're forgetting Covid started in March and deaths this year in Sweden are on course to be around 94k - higher than any of those graphs. If you did a March-March comparison you'd be getting roughly 120k deaths, a 34% increase in deaths on 2019. And how do you admit that the statistics you've shared are wrong and the point you've made is wrong? "So it might end up being slightly higher than a couple of years ago, but....". You can't even admit that it is already higher. You can't acknowledge any of the points. Instead, you try to throw sand to distract and change the conversation to care homes, cancer screening, GP appointments and the economy. And then, just to put the cherry on top. You're now saying that, "As I said on here recently, isolate people with symptoms and protect the vulnerable and at risk groups." But not only yesterday you said: That is what the government are doing, locking them away. They should be told the risks and allowed to live their lives as they wish. Maybe they don't want to be locked down and would rather spend time with friends and family and enjoying themselves in the time they have left. As I said the other day, you lack consistency in your arguments and will change the goalposts at any point to try make your point, which in this case on Sweden - is wrong. Concede a point and move on man. I acknowledged the figure is going to be higher, but you conveniently skip over the fact Sweden chose a model that can over-report deaths and the long term affects to this country and people are likely to be much worse from the disproportionate lockdown approach we've taken. As Professor John Ioannidis said: "lockdown is a nuclear weapon that destroys everything". It isn't throwing sand or distracting to point out the fact an official report stated Sweden failed in its effort to protect the elderly in care homes - for which the government has admitted responsibility, or point out over 90% of Covid-related deaths have been among those aged 70 and over, and nearly half of all Covid deaths have been in care homes. It is totally relevant. Yes I've said isolate people with symptoms and protect the vulnerable and at risk groups, but being protected should be an individual's choice and not for clowns like our government to decide who you can and can't see.
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Post by stuart1974 on Dec 18, 2020 12:59:51 GMT
You're sharing links that shows that Sweden has fewer deaths to the last 10 years, trying to make a point that Covid isn't bad at all. If you actually checked the statistics you'd see that its already higher than 2019. On top of that, you're forgetting Covid started in March and deaths this year in Sweden are on course to be around 94k - higher than any of those graphs. If you did a March-March comparison you'd be getting roughly 120k deaths, a 34% increase in deaths on 2019. And how do you admit that the statistics you've shared are wrong and the point you've made is wrong? "So it might end up being slightly higher than a couple of years ago, but....". You can't even admit that it is already higher. You can't acknowledge any of the points. Instead, you try to throw sand to distract and change the conversation to care homes, cancer screening, GP appointments and the economy. And then, just to put the cherry on top. You're now saying that, "As I said on here recently, isolate people with symptoms and protect the vulnerable and at risk groups." But not only yesterday you said: As I said the other day, you lack consistency in your arguments and will change the goalposts at any point to try make your point, which in this case on Sweden - is wrong. Concede a point and move on man. I acknowledged the figure is going to be higher, but you conveniently skip over the fact Sweden chose a model that can over-report deaths and the long term affects to this country and people are likely to be much worse from the disproportionate lockdown approach we've taken. As Professor John Ioannidis said: "lockdown is a nuclear weapon that destroys everything". It isn't throwing sand or distracting to point out the fact an official report stated Sweden failed in its effort to protect the elderly in care homes - for which the government has admitted responsibility, or point out over 90% of Covid-related deaths have been among those aged 70 and over, and nearly half of all Covid deaths have been in care homes. It is totally relevant. Yes I've said isolate people with symptoms and protect the vulnerable and at risk groups, but being protected should be an individual's choice and not for clowns like our government to decide who you can and can't see. What about those who are asymptomatic? All very well if we have a regular testing programme, a suitable track and trace system and a public who are willing to comply. You didn't answer my question from the other day; what do you think will happen if we follow the approach you are advocating?
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Post by Officer Barbrady on Dec 18, 2020 13:10:40 GMT
Question to those who understand better than me, if we 'allow' the virus to spread only to the less vulnerable people, does the resulting exponential increase in the virus reproduction rate increase the chances of a significant mutation above that we already have? Plainly, yes. There is a mutation chance every time it replicates and the natural selection will gear itself towards anything that gives it a greater chance of spread. Severity is different, if it mutates something that kills quick enough, spread will be reduced and natural selection will phase that mutation out. Worst case scenario for us (and natural evolution for the virus) is that it mutates to spread better in our socially distanced world (lives on surfaces longer, airborne, asymptomatic contagion etc) and kills more often, just not quickly. The virus doesn't care if the host dies or not, providing its spread rate is exponential before death occurs. And spread is generally worse the more you are affected sadly. Mind you the virus doesn't care about anything, its just evolution.
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pirate
Forum Legend
Posts: 19,461
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Post by pirate on Dec 18, 2020 13:11:01 GMT
I acknowledged the figure is going to be higher, but you conveniently skip over the fact Sweden chose a model that can over-report deaths and the long term affects to this country and people are likely to be much worse from the disproportionate lockdown approach we've taken. As Professor John Ioannidis said: "lockdown is a nuclear weapon that destroys everything". It isn't throwing sand or distracting to point out the fact an official report stated Sweden failed in its effort to protect the elderly in care homes - for which the government has admitted responsibility, or point out over 90% of Covid-related deaths have been among those aged 70 and over, and nearly half of all Covid deaths have been in care homes. It is totally relevant. Yes I've said isolate people with symptoms and protect the vulnerable and at risk groups, but being protected should be an individual's choice and not for clowns like our government to decide who you can and can't see. What about those who are asymptomatic? All very well if we have a regular testing programme, a suitable track and trace system and a public who are willing to comply. You didn't answer my question from the other day; what do you think will happen if we follow the approach you are advocating? You said it, have a regular testing programme and a suitable track and trace system. If we follow the approach I'm advocating then we are unlikely to have 27 million GP appointments cancelled, 30,000 excess non Covid home deaths, 3 million delayed cancer screenings, 618,000 job losses and the biggest economic decline in 300 years.
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Post by Gassy on Dec 18, 2020 13:18:33 GMT
You're sharing links that shows that Sweden has fewer deaths to the last 10 years, trying to make a point that Covid isn't bad at all. If you actually checked the statistics you'd see that its already higher than 2019. On top of that, you're forgetting Covid started in March and deaths this year in Sweden are on course to be around 94k - higher than any of those graphs. If you did a March-March comparison you'd be getting roughly 120k deaths, a 34% increase in deaths on 2019. And how do you admit that the statistics you've shared are wrong and the point you've made is wrong? "So it might end up being slightly higher than a couple of years ago, but....". You can't even admit that it is already higher. You can't acknowledge any of the points. Instead, you try to throw sand to distract and change the conversation to care homes, cancer screening, GP appointments and the economy. And then, just to put the cherry on top. You're now saying that, "As I said on here recently, isolate people with symptoms and protect the vulnerable and at risk groups." But not only yesterday you said: As I said the other day, you lack consistency in your arguments and will change the goalposts at any point to try make your point, which in this case on Sweden - is wrong. Concede a point and move on man. I acknowledged the figure is going to be higher, but you conveniently skip over the fact Sweden chose a model that can over-report deaths and the long term affects to this country and people are likely to be much worse from the disproportionate lockdown approach we've taken. As Professor John Ioannidis said: "lockdown is a nuclear weapon that destroys everything". It isn't throwing sand or distracting to point out the fact an official report stated Sweden failed in its effort to protect the elderly in care homes - for which the government has admitted responsibility, or point out over 90% of Covid-related deaths have been among those aged 70 and over, and nearly half of all Covid deaths have been in care homes. It is totally relevant. Yes I've said isolate people with symptoms and protect the vulnerable and at risk groups, but being protected should be an individual's choice and not for clowns like our government to decide who you can and can't see. You said it might be higher, then continued to try and prove how actually you're still correct - even though you're not. Anyway, never mind. The Swedish Covid counting point isn't a home run win for you, as you seem to think it is. Unless you can show me the figures of the differences, it means nothing. A point on someone dying after being hit by a bus whilst having Covid doesn't prove any point, if anything it shows how unrealistic it is. Yes you're right, those facts are relevant, but not to the point that you'r trying to make. We're discussing total deaths of Sweden and you're suggesting deaths this year are no different to previous years. Which is incorrect. Can you admit that? In fact March-March it will be roughly 34% higher than previous 10 years, can you admit that? The problem is with your last point/theory is: 1. Isolate those with symptoms (well as you've astutely pointed out, they all keep getting hit by buses and clearly are ignoring the rules) (ok that was a joke, but how do we do that? We're trying to do it now, but it isn't working very well - is it?) 2. If you 'protect' the vulnerable but give them the choice, then surely it's just going to spread to the vulnerable anyway and they'll all die. Great plan. Unfortunately, whilst your idea may be good (just reading your post to Stuart), it's complete fantasy. Unfortunately we can see that the British people cannot be trusted to follow the rules. We no longer have the culture of doing whats best for our nation, only what is best for how I feel at the moment. Add to that an incapable government, and here we are.
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Post by stuart1974 on Dec 18, 2020 13:20:23 GMT
What about those who are asymptomatic? All very well if we have a regular testing programme, a suitable track and trace system and a public who are willing to comply. You didn't answer my question from the other day; what do you think will happen if we follow the approach you are advocating? You said it, have a regular testing programme and a suitable track and trace system. If we follow the approach I'm advocating then we are unlikely to have 27 million GP appointments cancelled, 30,000 excess non Covid home deaths, 3 million delayed cancer screenings, 618,000 job losses and the biggest economic decline in 300 years. And a compliant population? If you really think it will be a better outcome then so be it, but that response doesn't show any appreciation if the issues. There will be consequences but you haven't acknowledged them yet. It's a difficult choice, but to me your solution isn't practical and will be worse.
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Post by yattongas on Dec 18, 2020 15:25:10 GMT
What about those who are asymptomatic? All very well if we have a regular testing programme, a suitable track and trace system and a public who are willing to comply. You didn't answer my question from the other day; what do you think will happen if we follow the approach you are advocating? You said it, have a regular testing programme and a suitable track and trace system. If we follow the approach I'm advocating then we are unlikely to have 27 million GP appointments cancelled, 30,000 excess non Covid home deaths, 3 million delayed cancer screenings, 618,000 job losses and the biggest economic decline in 300 years. This was addressed in the radio show today . Again you are speaking absolute nonsense.
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